Jhon Duran…

ayushreddevil9 said:
Well 3 years gap is too much. Not comparable at all
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Yes but if Spurs get 2-3 seasons out of him and then sell he'll be 30 then that's the point as they'll still be expecting decent bids for someone who'll probably establish himself in the England squad.

They'll always be a promoted or bottom half team who's perhaps just had a takeover (Everton/Palace) who'll have 30/40m to perhaps spend.

West Ham just signed Fullkrug for nearly 30m who's 31 so they'd certainly be bidding 50m or so for Ollie Watkins in the unlikely event he wanted to join them.
 
We have been victims of the "Giffen good" effect for a decade, which counterintuitively dictates that as the price of something rises, demand increases.

For example, John Duran, Gabriel Martinelli and Moises Caicedo...we were clearly interested in all three....but they were all "too cheap".

Compare with Donny van der Beek, Hannibal Mejbri, Anthony Martial etc...all reassuringly expensive. "They must be good, look how expensive they are!".

It's a similar effect to the one you see in gambling. If I say there are two horses running this afternoon at Newmarket and one is priced at 2/1 and one is 10/1, which has the better chance of winning? The answer is, you can't possibly know without further info., but intuitively you think the horse at 2/1 has more chance. It's why punters will stick £100 on an evens shot they don't really fancy and then have a fiver on a horse they really like and have followed for months at 16/1.
 
Proppa striker. One of my favourite players to right now
 
Lentwood said:
We have been victims of the "Giffen good" effect for a decade, which counterintuitively dictates that as the price of something rises, demand increases.

For example, John Duran, Gabriel Martinelli and Moises Caicedo...we were clearly interested in all three....but they were all "too cheap".

Compare with Donny van der Beek, Hannibal Mejbri, Anthony Martial etc...all reassuringly expensive. "They must be good, look how expensive they are!".

It's a similar effect to the one you see in gambling. If I say there are two horses running this afternoon at Newmarket and one is priced at 2/1 and one is 10/1, which has the better chance of winning? The answer is, you can't possibly know without further info., but intuitively you think the horse at 2/1 has more chance. It's why punters will stick £100 on an evens shot they don't really fancy and then have a fiver on a horse they really like and have followed for months at 16/1.
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How many different hobbies do you fecking have :lol: :lol: Weren't there references about Poker and NFL lately? Are you Charlie Harper?
 
Bluelion7 said:
What I find entertaining is the continuing idea that Chelsea’s scouting and recruitment is a haphazard mess. When we were in for Olise even after buying Palmer: “they have zero idea what they’re doing. An injury riddled RW when you e already bought people there”

When we were offering 55m to Everton for Anthony Gordon before it fell through: “Have Chelsea lost their minds? Seriously, not a bad little player, but this is getting absurd.”

Chelsea working out a deal for Jhon Duran: “Chelsea need a starter. They already have a prospect in Jackson, they don’t need to buy someone else who may or may not produce”

Honestly we should listen to other people less.

Those three deals fell through for very different reasons, but validation is always nice. Duran is a really good striker.
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You could add Adam Wharton to that too this past January.
 
Lentwood said:
It's a similar effect to the one you see in gambling. If I say there are two horses running this afternoon at Newmarket and one is priced at 2/1 and one is 10/1, which has the better chance of winning? The answer is, you can't possibly know without further info., but intuitively you think the horse at 2/1 has more chance. It's why punters will stick £100 on an evens shot they don't really fancy and then have a fiver on a horse they really like and have followed for months at 16/1.
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This makes absolutely no sense, odds are literally a number built from this so-called 'further info' :lol:
 
Bluelion7 said:
What I find entertaining is the continuing idea that Chelsea’s scouting and recruitment is a haphazard mess. When we were in for Olise even after buying Palmer: “they have zero idea what they’re doing. An injury riddled RW when you e already bought people there”

When we were offering 55m to Everton for Anthony Gordon before it fell through: “Have Chelsea lost their minds? Seriously, not a bad little player, but this is getting absurd.”

Chelsea working out a deal for Jhon Duran: “Chelsea need a starter. They already have a prospect in Jackson, they don’t need to buy someone else who may or may not produce”

Honestly we should listen to other people less.

Those three deals fell through for very different reasons, but validation is always nice. Duran is a really good striker.
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If you’re gonna bid for 3582577 players at the age of 23 or younger it’s obvious that quite a few of them will improve and become excellent players. That doesn’t make the scouting exceptional. Every top club will have had guys like Palmer, Olise and Gordon on their lists. But it’s only Chelsea who basically bid for 99% of them. What matters is the quota of how many you get right compared to how many you get wrong. Although in Chelsea’s case you don’t even care for that, as you just buy 100 talented players and then choose the 23 to use in your squad long term while freezing out the rest.
 
Bluelion7 said:
What I find entertaining is the continuing idea that Chelsea’s scouting and recruitment is a haphazard mess. When we were in for Olise even after buying Palmer: “they have zero idea what they’re doing. An injury riddled RW when you e already bought people there”

When we were offering 55m to Everton for Anthony Gordon before it fell through: “Have Chelsea lost their minds? Seriously, not a bad little player, but this is getting absurd.”

Chelsea working out a deal for Jhon Duran: “Chelsea need a starter. They already have a prospect in Jackson, they don’t need to buy someone else who may or may not produce”

Honestly we should listen to other people less.

Those three deals fell through for very different reasons, but validation is always nice. Duran is a really good striker.
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That might be because you've bought players for 1.330 million EUR the last 5 windows (sold for 540 million). It seems more than a little happy go lucky and very unsustainable.

Attacking midfielders coming into Chelsea the last two years (including loan):
- Chukwuemeka
- Madueke
- Sterling
- Mudryk
- Felix (loan and transfer)
- Gallagher (from U21)
- Casadei
- Palmer
- Nkunku
- Angelo
- Hutchinson
- Neto
- Dewsbury-Hall
- Sancho (loan)

Attacking midfielders leaving you in the same period:
- Sterling (loan)
- Mount
- Havertz
- Werner
- Ziyech
- Hutchinson
- Moreira
- Angelo
- Gallagher
- CHO
- RLC
- Batshuayi
- Pulisic

That's in two years....

Right now you have 13 players fighting for 3-4 places in your team (AM, LW, RW and CF)
You just want everything, don't you?
How many of the above mentioned players not from the academy do you think you made money on?

Funfact:
Chelsea had 23 managers (including interims) between it was founded in 1905 to year 2000.
Since then they have had 23 managers (including interims)

On topic:
Jhon Duran looks like an interesting young striker and that left foot is a weapon.
I'll be very surprised if he keeps up that goalratio with more gametime though.
 
He's going to be class. Thoroughly enjoyed the game last night and landed for Villa fans. But I fecking despise Gabby Agbonhlahor.
 
Lentwood said:
We have been victims of the "Giffen good" effect for a decade, which counterintuitively dictates that as the price of something rises, demand increases.

For example, John Duran, Gabriel Martinelli and Moises Caicedo...we were clearly interested in all three....but they were all "too cheap".

Compare with Donny van der Beek, Hannibal Mejbri, Anthony Martial etc...all reassuringly expensive. "They must be good, look how expensive they are!".

It's a similar effect to the one you see in gambling. If I say there are two horses running this afternoon at Newmarket and one is priced at 2/1 and one is 10/1, which has the better chance of winning? The answer is, you can't possibly know without further info., but intuitively you think the horse at 2/1 has more chance. It's why punters will stick £100 on an evens shot they don't really fancy and then have a fiver on a horse they really like and have followed for months at 16/1.
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You're describing a Veblen good. I.e. like the old Stella ads, "Reassuringly Expensive".

A Giffen good also has increased demand when the price rises but for very different reasons. Giffen goods are cheap basic essentials where a price rise crowds out expenditure on more expensive alternatives in a way that frees up funds to buy more of the Giffen good. (Giffen goods might well not actually exist in the real world).
 
teague said:
You're describing a Veblen good. I.e. like the old Stel :lol: la ads, "Reassuringly Expensive".

A Giffen good also has increased demand when the price rises but for very different reasons. Giffen goods are cheap basic essentials where a price rise crowds out expenditure on more expensive alternatives in a way that frees up funds to buy more of the Giffen good. (Giffen goods might well not actually exist in the real world).
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Well there we go, people are getting a crash course in Economics as they browse :lol:

Been a while since I was at Uni, need to brush-up obviously
 
At 20 he could develop in all sorts of directions.

What’s clear is that he’s big, fairly quick and can strike the feck out of the ball with his left foot.

Honestly not sure about the rest of his game, which seems pretty raw. But at 20 that could improve a lot over time. Or not.

At this point, I’d definitely rather have Sesko. But that could change over the next couple years.
 
Is he going to sit happy on their bench for much longer?
 
Bastian said:
Is he going to sit happy on their bench for much longer?
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He wanted to leave back in January to Chelsea, then was almost begging for a move to West Ham in the summer. Then signed a new deal after the season started. He’s not the brightest.
 
Nick7 said:
He wanted to leave back in January to Chelsea, then was almost begging for a move to West Ham in the summer. Then signed a new deal after the season started. He’s not the brightest.
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To be fair maybe he got what he wanted. A wage increase, longer contract and potentially a gentlemen's agreement/release clause.
 
Is he a good goalscorer or just a wonder goal striker?

Since we might have a poacher type striker in Hojlund - ive been looking at alternative different type of strikers.

Id rather have 2 strikers of 2 different styles than having 2 poachers of the same style & wondering if Duran is capable.
 
Shaw's Shank Redemption said:
Is he a good goalscorer or just a wonder goal striker?

Since we might have a poacher type striker in Hojlund - ive been looking at alternative different type of strikers.

Id rather have 2 strikers of 2 different styles than having 2 poachers of the same style & wondering if Duran is capable.
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Think it's hard to judge your main question on the limited minutes we've seen. Not sure you know someone is a good goalscorer until you see him put up the numbers, and do it more than once.

To me at just turned 21 he looks like has tremendous potential. Emery is often referring to his attitude and how much work he still has to do so that suggests there might have been a slight issue there but it seems to be improving and his general play improving with it.

Be interesting to see this summer his availability Vs cost. He seemed available last summer in part due to Villa's PSR issues, West Ham went to £30M + Lewis Orford but that wasn't enough to tempt Villa into selling. Chelsea got closer I believe but think they wouldn't go to the £40M-£45M Villa wanted.

Since then he's signed a new contract at Villa. No idea what Villa's potential PSR issues might be for this summer but given his impact this season you could be talking about £60M+ easily to tempt them to sell? Seen figures of a £75M asking price mentioned even, but doubt anyone would go that high.
 
GoonerBear said:
Think it's hard to judge your main question on the limited minutes we've seen. Not sure you know someone is a good goalscorer until you see him put up the numbers, and do it more than once.

To me at just turned 21 he looks like has tremendous potential. Emery is often referring to his attitude and how much work he still has to do so that suggests there might have been a slight issue there but it seems to be improving and his general play improving with it.

Be interesting to see this summer his availability Vs cost. He seemed available last summer in part due to Villa's PSR issues, West Ham went to £30M + Lewis Orford but that wasn't enough to tempt Villa into selling. Chelsea got closer I believe but think they wouldn't go to the £40M-£45M Villa wanted.

Since then he's signed a new contract at Villa. No idea what Villa's potential PSR issues might be for this summer but given his impact this season you could be talking about £60M+ easily to tempt them to sell? Seen figures of a £75M asking price mentioned even, but doubt anyone would go that high.
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I can see why Aston Villa rejected those offers but i think an offer of 50-60 mil should be enough to make him stress out being at Aston Villa. Arsenal, United, Liverpool, Chelsea could all do with a striker but i wonder if he would be happy to compete for a strikers spot rather than having a starting spot.

Havertz Duran
Hojlund Duran
Jackson Duran
Duran Nunez

Seems like 2 good strikers within a squad.

Ive heard his stats are largely swayed because he has alot of sub appearances rather than starting appearances and yet still good for a 20 year old striker at Aston Villa who doesnt play full 90 mins.
 
One of the big European teams will be in for him soon enough
 
Fortitude said:
Hasn't he just re-signed at Villa?
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Maybe im dilusional but something tells me Amorim is a very exciting coach to work with.

Guardiola's shrinking, Madrid have Mbappe, Arsenal are good but playing stoke level football & doesnt look like winning titles. Chelsea may still be an option but Jacksons actually quite good and i doubt neither would want to rotate.

I can only really see Barcelona, Bayern, Liverpool & United where he becomes the next starting striker even if they have to incooperate Kane & Lewandowski.

We have to go for him at the right time though. This is why we have to decide if Duran is a generational talent & to me he is looking like it just based on his stats alone. We then have to decide if breaking the bank is worth it.

Going for him in January for example should keep the price under 75 million, as he will only score 7-8 goals but i genuinely think we can mind trick him to wanting him out of Aston Villa now we got a manager like Amorim, the manager that got the best of Gyokeres. If he keeps scoring like this both in the PL & scores 15 end of season until summer his price will raise to 100 mil easily.
 
Shaw's Shank Redemption said:
Maybe im dilusional but something tells me Amorim is a very exciting coach to work with.

Guardiola's shrinking, Madrid have Mbappe, Arsenal are good but playing stoke level football.

I can only really see Barcelona, Bayern, Liverpool & United where he becomes the next starting striker even if they have to incooperate Kane & Lewandowski.

We have to go for him at the right time though.

Going for him in January for example should keep the price under 80 million, as he will only score 7-8 goals but i genuinely think we can mind trick him to wanting him out of Aston Villa now we got a manager like Amorim. If he keeps scoring like this both in the PL & scores 15 end of season until summer his price might raise to 100 mil.
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As below
Rajiztar said:
Yup. Chelsea tried to bring him in summer window.After that saga only they gave him new contract. We missed the chance to sign him.
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Plus Villa are rich; you're not getting him for cheap no matter whether he scores a few or a lot between now and the end of the season; the new contract makes sure of that, unless it has some kind of clause in it that enables him to go to club X,Y, Z for a fair price if they come in for him.

Villa will put a price to potential, like every club does with hot, young talents. The time to get him for a fair price has long since come and gone by.
 
Fortitude said:
Plus Villa are rich; you're not getting him for cheap no matter whether he scores a few or a lot between now and the end of the season; the new contract makes sure of that, unless it has some kind of clause in it that enables him to go to club X,Y, Z for a fair price if they come in for him.

Villa will put a price to potential, like every club does with hot, young talents. The time to get him for a fair price has long since come and gone by.
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I just stated we tried to sign him but missed the chance. Doubt we will go for him again.

For us Guiu looked like a deal and he is still very young just 18 years old. He will get his chances in premier league soon I hope. He looked like a proper fox in the box type striker with great work rate and ability to have good ball control.

In four starts in conference league guiu scored six goals for us. I know it's conference league only but still he looked good in my opinion.
 
Said from early in his Villa career, I think he’s going all the way to Real Madrid this one.
 
Shaw's Shank Redemption said:
I can see why Aston Villa rejected those offers but i think an offer of 50-60 mil should be enough to make him stress out being at Aston Villa. Arsenal, United, Liverpool, Chelsea could all do with a striker but i wonder if he would be happy to compete for a strikers spot rather than having a starting spot.

Havertz Duran
Hojlund Duran
Jackson Duran
Duran Nunez

Seems like 2 good strikers within a squad.

Ive heard his stats are largely swayed because he has alot of sub appearances rather than starting appearances and yet still good for a 20 year old striker at Aston Villa who doesnt play full 90 mins.
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Duran Duran
 
Shaw's Shank Redemption said:
Have to sign him imo. His stats are insane
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Would cost way more than what you paid for Hojlund.

Wouldn't shock me if we started offering around Watkins end of the season so he's a far more realistic signing if you're not making CL again.
 
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