Is it possible to for any smaller teams to make the top 6 regularly anymore?

Scandi Red said:
By the way, I'm not entirely convinced that this is a PL problem even though we only speak of a top 6 in the PL.

Take the 6 most successful teams (count number of top 4 finishes, not titles) from Spain, Italy and Germany over the last two decades. How many teams besides the "top 6" have managed to finish top 4? It doubt that it has happened often.
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First I dont think other leagues have a top 6, probably top 3 or 4 and the other 2 to 3 positions rotate heavily

Germany should be Bayern Dortmund Leipzig Leverkusen can't name the last 2

Italy should be Juve Milan Inter Napoli

Spain Madrid Barcelona Atletico Sevilla
 
kaiser1 said:
First I dont think other leagues have a top 6, probably top 3 or 4 and the other 2 to 3 positions rotate heavily

Germany should be Bayern Dortmund Leipzig Leverkusen can't name the last 2

Italy should be Juve Milan Inter Napoli

Spain Madrid Barcelona Atletico Sevilla
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What the hell is the Premier League 6 anyway? United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, City and ... Chelsea I guess? I dont know why you'd include Spurs and Chelsea and not Newcastle and Villa to be honest.
 
caid said:
What the hell is the Premier League 6 anyway? United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, City and ... Chelsea I guess? I dont know why you'd include Spurs and Chelsea and not Newcastle and Villa to be honest.
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Spurs and Chelsea have been consistent in top 6 while Newcastle and Villa are new to it

Actually both of them got promoted to top flight fairly recently
 
Very interesting thread.

There is definitely a natural hierarchy based on tradition, size of local population, long term support, size of stadium, and money. It can be hard for a club to move up to the next tier and establish themselves there. I could quite see Everton (if they sort themselves out), Villa or Newcastle doing it in time. Maybe West Ham too as an outside bet. The best thing Rangers and Celtic could do is join the English leagues but I doubt it will happen. There are a dozen or so clubs in the UK with huge potential and life at the top seems set to become more competitive each year.

There is also globalisation. Parachuting in a multi-billionaire foreign owner can speed up the process, as we saw at Chelsea and City.
 
kaiser1 said:
First I dont think other leagues have a top 6, probably top 3 or 4 and the other 2 to 3 positions rotate heavily
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I'm aware, but we'd still need to name the 6 most successful to make it a far cross-comparison.

Based mostly on gut-feeling (keep in mind that the clock starts all the way back in 2000):

Germany
Definite (3): Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen
Probable (4): Schalke, Leipzig, Stuttgart, Werder Bremen

Italy
Definite (4): Juventus, Milan, Inter, Napoli
Probable (3): Roma, Lazio, Fiorentina


Spain
Definite (3): Real, Barca, Atletico
Probable (3): Sevilla, Valencia, Villarreal

Spain is extra difficult for me... I feel that Deportivo used to have a pretty decent team? Perhaps Bilbao too?
 
It's very challenging.

These smaller teams aren't trying to, though. Signing young players and selling them off for a profit when they impress isn't going to cement you in the top 4. Maybe if you had players less likely to move (old).
 
Iker Quesadillas said:
It's very challenging.

These smaller teams aren't trying to, though. Signing young players and selling them off for a profit when they impress isn't going to cement you in the top 4. Maybe if you had players less likely to move (old).
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You realize how hard it is for Brighton to refuse 120m for Caicedo or why the player will insist on moving from a 30k a week salary to a 150k a week salary
 
kaiser1 said:
You realize how hard it is for Brighton to refuse 120m for Caicedo or why the player will insist on moving from a 30k a week salary to a 150k a week salary
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Yes, but that's the nature of the model. You sign very young players, with a high ceiling and potentially high resale value.
 
Scandi Red said:
I'm aware, but we'd still need to name the 6 most successful to make it a far cross-comparison.

Based mostly on gut-feeling (keep in mind that the clock starts all the way back in 2000):

Germany
Definite (3): Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen
Probable (4): Schalke, Leipzig, Stuttgart, Werder Bremen

Italy
Definite (4): Juventus, Milan, Inter, Napoli
Probable (3): Roma, Lazio, Fiorentina


Spain
Definite (3): Real, Barca, Atletico
Probable (3): Sevilla, Valencia, Villarreal

Spain is extra difficult for me... I feel that Deportivo used to have a pretty decent team? Perhaps Bilbao too?
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Germany: Union, Hoffenheim Wolfsburg Mochengladbach, Hannover, Hertha, Hamburg 1860. Total 8 teams besides the 7 listed

Spain: Girona, Sociedad, Bilbao, Betis, Malaga Deportivo, Celta, Mallorca Zaragoza Total 9 teams besides the 6

Italy: Atalanta Parma Udinese Chievo Sampdoria
Total 5 besides the 7

I probably missed 1 or 2
 
If things stay as they are, it will remain incredibly hard for anyone outside of the "big6" to establish themselves as a team regularly finishing in the top 6 without major investment.

I like the idea that everyone should be allowed to spend up to the FFP limit of the highest revenue earning club but with the caveat that if owners decide to do a Chelsea/City then that money should be put up front and a trust created to maintain all salaries for every big contract, no extravagant spend debt for players and managers should be placed on the club. Ultimately FFP was created to stop clubs overspending and putting themselves into a hole, right now it's doing that but also protecting the top teams status.
 
The only way for a small club to become a non-small club now is to get taken over by very very rich owners. Organic growth will only take you so far.
 
The reason these teams can't compete, is what City and Chelsea have done to the market since 2003. But they prefer to blame clubs like United, Liverpool and Arsenal (the Red Cartel) who built themselves up over many decades to reach the stage they're at now.

Everyone wants a shortcut to the top, ignoring the fact they'll never actually reach the top while oil states own clubs. For all the riches and "unfair" advantages they think the "red cartel" have, City have just won 4 in a row and 6 of the last 7. In that same period, United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, Newcastle, Villa, Chelsea, Leicester, West Ham and Brighton have all finished in the top 6.

That's 10 teams who have all made it in and out of the top 6 of a 20 team league, while the 11th team has absolutely dominated the title. All these clubs are upset because of the money that comes from making Europe, but they all know that money isn't going to see them competing for titles. These clubs and their owners (and I include the Glazers in this) don't care about actually competing - otherwise they would've taken to the streets to stop the City and Newcastle takeovers. They just want to be on the gravy train to line their own pockets.

Arsenal have done well with a young, competitive squad to challenge for the last couple of years - but they'll see the same challenges as ourselves and Liverpool when their stars mature a bit, and start demanding wage parity with their counterparts elsewhere. When their profile prevents them from picking up bargain signings and an Arsenal tax gets slapped on top. All while City's wage bill magically stays balanced, but for some reason none of their star names get their head turned by bigger clubs elsewhere.
 
SilentWitness said:
The only way for a small club to become a non-small club now is to get taken over by very very rich owners. Organic growth will only take you so far.
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You're absolutely right, but it is a bit sad that that's the way the game has gone. I'd love to think that Brighton could win the premiership, but back in the real world every season at the moment is about top ten and just possibly Europe and I can't see how we go beyond that. It's taken some fantastic overall club management and a huge amount of cash from our owner just to reach that and sustain it for three seasons, given our history.
 
The Boy said:
You're absolutely right, but it is a bit sad that that's the way the game has gone. I'd love to think that Brighton could win the premiership, but back in the real world every season at the moment is about top ten and just possibly Europe and I can't see how we go beyond that. It's taken some fantastic overall club management and a huge amount of cash from our owner just to reach that and sustain it for three seasons, given our history.
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Its about sustaining it and building up your infrastructure. Top ten and europe is probably the kind of thing you should enjoy while it lasts because its pretty easy to slip back to promotion battles.
 
SilentWitness said:
The only way for a small club to become a non-small club now is to get taken over by very very rich owners. Organic growth will only take you so far.
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Bingo. Any other thing is wishful thinking.
unless every club is banned from buying players, you can only home grow your players plus a salary cap

Your finances and wage bill has a almost direct correlation with your league position
 
The Boy said:
You're absolutely right, but it is a bit sad that that's the way the game has gone. I'd love to think that Brighton could win the premiership, but back in the real world every season at the moment is about top ten and just possibly Europe and I can't see how we go beyond that. It's taken some fantastic overall club management and a huge amount of cash from our owner just to reach that and sustain it for three seasons, given our history.
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I see no reason a club as brilliantly run as Brighton, can't reach the levels of a Manchester United, Liverpool or Arsenal given time. Same goes for Spurs, Villa and any number of other clubs. It will take time, perhaps some luck, a steady increase in fanbase and global reach, but it's perfectly feasible.

You won't ever be able to compete consistently with a City or what Newcastle will become, but then neither will we.
 
diarm said:
I see no reason a club as brilliantly run as Brighton, can't reach the levels of a Manchester United, Liverpool or Arsenal given time. Same goes for Spurs, Villa and any number of other clubs. It will take time, perhaps some luck, a steady increase in fanbase and global reach, but it's perfectly feasible.
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There is no reason actually. The location of the club makes a big difference as well. 99% of the time big clubs are located in big cities.
 
caid said:
Its about sustaining it and building up your infrastructure. Top ten and europe is probably the kind of thing you should enjoy while it lasts because its pretty easy to slip back to promotion battles.
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I've been watching Brighton for 40 odd years I've seen us in every league, seen our ground sold leaving us homeless, seen relegations and promotions (thankfully) and watched us play regularly at home at an old run down athletics track in the pouring rain. I never thought I would see Brighton in the premier league in my lifetime, trust me I am enjoying and making the most of it at the moment!

EDIT: if you think OT is in a bit of state, just google the Withdean Stadium, it was awful!
 
Scandi Red said:
Take the 6 most successful teams (count number of top 4 finishes, not titles) from Spain, Italy and Germany over the last two decades. How many teams besides the "top 6" have managed to finish top 4? It doubt that it has happened often.
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In Spain the top 6 since 2004 are RM, Barcelona, Sevilla, Atletico, Valencia, Villareal. Other teams that have finished top 4: Real Sociedad (x2), Betis, Osasuna, Malaga, Girona, Athletic Bilbao.

The caveat is that "top 6" is a little more fluid. Valencia's average position in the last decade is 9th and they've only made top 6 in 3 of those 10 seasons. Villareal's average position in the last decade is 6.6, partly on account of a 14th place finish. They were also relegated a little over a decade ago. Atletico were not a top 6 team for about a decade before the appointment of Simeone (in fact they spent 2 of those seasons in the 2nd division).

You could argue that Sevilla are a 'small' (really medium) club who've become top 6. They didn't really do much of anything from the 50s to the 90s and had multiple relegations in the late 90s-early 00s. It is since then that they've become a solid top 6 team that wins titles (two domestic cups and seven Europa Leagues).
 
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The Boy said:
I agree with a lot of this, but it's not just about the owners, it's about the players as well. Brighton would have turned down Chelsea's offers for Caicedo and Cucurella if the players had been willing to stay at the club, but both wanted the move, the same with Mac Allister. You would have kept Ronaldo if he had been willing to stay. But you can't hold players back from wanting to progress their careers and increase their wages.

But 15 years ago Brighton finished mid table in league one and we've come a long way since then, but will we plateau because of reasons in the OP or can we still progress?
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It depends on how financially strong you can become honestly. You can't develop and unearth hidden gems for top class players every year, eventually you'll swing and miss or have some tough luck, which is why it's important to also have the buying power/pull to buy some established "good" players already to supplement the Caicedo's and Mitoma's you find through top class scouting/DOF work.

Although I think it's more possible to make that jump now than it was 10-20 years ago. Systems have become much more modern and forward thinking, and PL clubs in general have far more pull than they did in the 90's/2000's outside of the big clubs. Clubs like Brighton can afford to hold out for 100m+ fees for their best players when that just wasn't realistic a decade+ ago, and big clubs are often hesitant to immediately shell out that level of cash until they know it's a sure thing (or you're Chelsea post takeover).
 
The Boy said:
I've been watching Brighton for 40 odd years I've seen us in every league, seen our ground sold leaving us homeless, seen relegations and promotions (thankfully) and watched us play regularly at home at an old run down athletics track in the pouring rain. I never thought I would see Brighton in the premier league in my lifetime, trust me I am enjoying and making the most of it at the moment!

EDIT: if you think OT is in a bit of state, just google the Withdean Stadium, it was awful!
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I had the pleasure of visiting the Withdean in 2005 and still remember Jobi McAnuff’s last minute winner like it was yesterday. Magnificent fayre.
 
The Boy said:
I've been watching Brighton for 40 odd years I've seen us in every league, seen our ground sold leaving us homeless, seen relegations and promotions (thankfully) and watched us play regularly at home at an old run down athletics track in the pouring rain. I never thought I would see Brighton in the premier league in my lifetime, trust me I am enjoying and making the most of it at the moment!

EDIT: if you think OT is in a bit of state, just google the Withdean Stadium, it was awful!
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I was at the Goldstone with my dad in 1965 when they beat Darlington 3-1 to win the 4th division title. There were 31,000 at the match, a previously unheard of attendance for that division. Archie Macaulay was the manager back then.
 
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Scandi Red said:
Italy
Definite (4): Juventus, Milan, Inter, Napoli
Probable (3): Roma, Lazio, Fiorentina
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Roma has been better than Napoli in 21st century so far. 1 title, 9 second place league finishes, 2 Italian cups, CL semi final, Conference League title, Europa League final.

Can't see how you could place Napoli above Roma.

In the last 25 years, the clear top 5 of Italian football were Juventus, Inter, Milan, Roma and Lazio. Fiorentina and Napoli were relegated all the way down to Serie C in the 00s. They only became relevant again around 2010.
 
We've already seen the best of European club football as a competitive spectacle. Without some sort of widespread structural reform, we're firmly on a downward trend now, so enjoy the occasional shock like the Leverkusen league win. Capitalist state owned uberclubs, a small group of the traditional big clubs that have become commercial titans, and one or two leagues pulling out in front of everyone else in terms of spending power (or the big clubs forming their own superleague, which will probably still happen at some point), were always going to be the end game considering how football handles money and any attempts at systemic change.
 
I blame Bosman, or rather the crappy belgian transfer rules that forced him to go to court.
 
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