FF last for me. Top was Labour
but I already know im voting FG
but I already know im voting FG
Irish Politics
- Thread starter JakeC
- Start date
I've never voted. Is it worth it or are they all just a different flavour of useless and self serving
It is for me a lot harder to differentiate between our top 2 than it is in other countires.
I got FF first and Aontú second 
No idea what I've done to get that, maybe I should have boosted some and not skipped some. Exclusively voted SD every time I've voted, and usually get them every time I do one of these things.
No idea what I've done to get that, maybe I should have boosted some and not skipped some. Exclusively voted SD every time I've voted, and usually get them every time I do one of these things.Some are worse than others. And the nice thing about our political system is that you can place every other candidate ahead of those you least like.
I would imagine the same surge in migration and asylum seekers can be seen to various extents across Europe, given it's a Europe-wide issue.
I thought our influx of asylum seekers was generally much worse because of the shit the Tories pulled in the UK, but I could be wrong.
We’ve also taken (rightly) a lot more Ukrainians per capita than a lot of countries.
"The figure below displays the latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates with 95% uncertainty margins, indicating the likely range of current support in terms of first-preference vote intentions.
Fine Gael is currently the most popular party with support estimated between 22% and 25%, followed by Fianna Fáil at 20.5% to 24%.
Sinn Féin's support is estimated at 17.5% to 20%, on par with Independents and other parties at 17% to 20%.
The Social Democrats are estimated to have 4% to 5.5% support, while Labour and the Green Party each range from 3.5% to 5%.
Support for Aontú and People Before Profit–Solidarity is estimated to be 1.5% and 3%.
RedC is the only pollster that explicitly lists support for Independent Ireland. According to their most recent poll, released today, Independent Ireland currently stands at 3%. RedC polls published since June 2024 have consistently placed Independent Ireland's support between 3% and 5%."
From RTE
Looks like another FFG government. I'd like to vote against them but not a fan of Sinn Fein at the best of times and being in a coalition with one isn't attractive enough to get my vote. So i guess i'm voting for a coalition partner somewhere between Greens, Social Democrats and Labour. Feels an easy enough choice to me to be honest.
Public transport has improved drastically around me in recent years, Offshore wind power has been a win and while i dont particularly like how other things like the bottle return scheme have been implemented I'm very glad they have been implemented. The 8 billion fine for failing on carbon neutrality feels a good reason even leaving everything else aside. So im voting green top of the ticket. I dont really rate the social democrats and labour lost my support a long time ago and haven't done anything to change my mind.
Fine Gael is currently the most popular party with support estimated between 22% and 25%, followed by Fianna Fáil at 20.5% to 24%.
Sinn Féin's support is estimated at 17.5% to 20%, on par with Independents and other parties at 17% to 20%.
The Social Democrats are estimated to have 4% to 5.5% support, while Labour and the Green Party each range from 3.5% to 5%.
Support for Aontú and People Before Profit–Solidarity is estimated to be 1.5% and 3%.
RedC is the only pollster that explicitly lists support for Independent Ireland. According to their most recent poll, released today, Independent Ireland currently stands at 3%. RedC polls published since June 2024 have consistently placed Independent Ireland's support between 3% and 5%."
From RTE
Looks like another FFG government. I'd like to vote against them but not a fan of Sinn Fein at the best of times and being in a coalition with one isn't attractive enough to get my vote. So i guess i'm voting for a coalition partner somewhere between Greens, Social Democrats and Labour. Feels an easy enough choice to me to be honest.
Public transport has improved drastically around me in recent years, Offshore wind power has been a win and while i dont particularly like how other things like the bottle return scheme have been implemented I'm very glad they have been implemented. The 8 billion fine for failing on carbon neutrality feels a good reason even leaving everything else aside. So im voting green top of the ticket. I dont really rate the social democrats and labour lost my support a long time ago and haven't done anything to change my mind.
Giving a platform for these three absolute feckwits to shout over each other is proving to be well worth it.
I’m not sure what the “is the united forum safe to go into yet?” Thread has to do with the Irish election.
How is this feckin dweeb Taoiseach?
He's absolutely soulless and couldn't even feign empathy in the face of someone who was obviously quite upset.
He's since apologised to her and said 'it's not who he is', but it's clear to me it's exactly who he is.
He's absolutely soulless and couldn't even feign empathy in the face of someone who was obviously quite upset.
He's since apologised to her and said 'it's not who he is', but it's clear to me it's exactly who he is.
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Always going to be the way. He was too polished, too rehearsed. You got the impression he'd get a focus group to pick his tie. He might get away with it in Ireland where you can limit them kind of interactions and the media coverage of it but his time in the spotlight wont age well.
He’s a proper wanker.
Not sure what leaders are actually likeable though. Michael Martin seems a bit less of a knob but maybe that’s just cause he has auld lad at the pub vibes? I do like Holly Cairns. Roderic O’Gorman is… meh? Mary Lou comes across just as smug as Harris.
Not sure what leaders are actually likeable though. Michael Martin seems a bit less of a knob but maybe that’s just cause he has auld lad at the pub vibes? I do like Holly Cairns. Roderic O’Gorman is… meh? Mary Lou comes across just as smug as Harris.
All that campaigning shite makes my skin crawl. They couldn't give a feck.
Just saw that Gerry Hutch is trying to get into politics? How is that even possible? Are there no criminal cases against him?
Holly Cairns is the only one who’s even vaguely likeable. And even she’s a bit weird. Basically, only fecking weirdos go into politics. It’s not something that normal people do. And politicians who make it to the top are always the weirdest. It’s natural selection for weirdos.
Very true.
Based on the latest polls I’m going to have to vote Shinners aren’t I? Seem to be on the up with FFG making a PR balls of their campaigning so I guess the only ones likely to go into power with/over them. Depressing as I think they’ll be shite but it’s hard to see Greens or SDs getting in.
He was literally released on bail from Spain so he could run
The main drawback in voting Green, Eamon Ryan aside, is that it's basically another vote for GF/FF, Labour too.
The latest polls have it 20-20-22 (SF-FF-FG). Independents, which I really believe is one of the most "truthful" things about Irish politics are on 20~ as well. You don't see that in many other nations (like the UK for example).
Surely it has to be a vote left across the ballot strategy? That's what I did five years ago and it's what I'll be doing this time. I'm not blind to SF's failings but they have been running on the one issue, consistently, which is destroying this nation's body politic and that is housing (or housing inequality). Anything other than a vote for an alternative, whether Ind, or SF or whomever, to me, is a vote for the same clowns who allowed a ridiculous migration net scenario to occur where what tiny resources in housing we had were greatly multiplied by the need to house people in the hundreds of thousands (we were already in a housing crisis and then we had 100 to 150 thousand additional people to accommodate).
fwiwi, I would have taken in Ukrainian refugees also, but about 30-40 thousand, a manageable amount relative to our population, rather than the number actually taken in. If that meant rebuffing Brussels then that is something that had to happen.
Moses, you would know, with your Marxian background what undermining the labor market qua resources in the above actually means and why that is playing out, sometimes in far right dialogue, right now.
Seriously, we cannot be voting this same FFG shite back in. I appreciate some things FFG have done but it is without any significance when we consider the absolute disgrace of housing and even healthcare in the nation. It just is not good enough for the richest state, in per capita terms, upon the planet.
We are short of 300k houses (social and private). That has to be put on the doorstep of FFG. They have been in power for all the miscalculations in planning for housing over two or more decades. It has to be a protest vote (with a genuine chance - if SF feck it up, we can say we gave it a go and never vote them back in - of seeing that problem solved). I cannot fathom voting the same coalition back in when these people explicitly said no to a coalition prior to the last election only to break that promise when SF ran the boards.
If those polling numbers are accurate then we are sort of exactly where the last election left us. Except this time there has to be an alternative coalition. If SF can manage that. With independents and left-leaning (even right-leaning) members. I see Aauntu (cannot spell it) being more than ready to go with SF if that is possible - I would welcome that even though this party is clearly as conservative as it gets in Irish politics.
The problem, obviously, of an alternative coalition is that SF needs to take the Ind Group and those outside of that framework into their fold which is harder than convincing one party to do the same.
TL;DR
My hope is the polls underestimate SF like last time except this time they poll something like >26%. Not enough by themselves but clearly enough to state, again, that the nation wants change.
As an aside, I received a call from Ipsos Mori (the first time the pollsters tried to contact me directly, presumably using my data in micro analyses as per everyone else) and I just ignored it. But if they are trading analytics in data (which they clearly are, even here) then my answer is obvious.
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I did a survey from UL that's supposed to show you what party most closely aligns to your views.
The result was basically around a 60% match to all of the main parties.
It's like an arse with 6 cheeks.
As per Boylesport, the most likely next governments, in order of likelihood:
1. Fine Gael/Fianna Fail/Independents
2. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Labour
3. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael
4. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Independent Ireland
5. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Independent Ireland/Independents
6. Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail
7. Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail/Independents
8. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Labour/Independents
9. Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail/ Soc Dems
10. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Greens/Independents.
Two thoughts:
1) Pretty sweet position for Fianna Fail to be in, as there's literally zero realistic scenario where they're not in government.
2) Nauseating though it might be to give Labour a high preference only to see them go into government with FG/FF, it's also worth considering how comfortable you'd be with any of the other most likely outcomes given the make-up of the independent and Independent Ireland candidates.
1. Fine Gael/Fianna Fail/Independents
2. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Labour
3. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael
4. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Independent Ireland
5. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Independent Ireland/Independents
6. Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail
7. Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail/Independents
8. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Labour/Independents
9. Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail/ Soc Dems
10. Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Greens/Independents.
Two thoughts:
1) Pretty sweet position for Fianna Fail to be in, as there's literally zero realistic scenario where they're not in government.
2) Nauseating though it might be to give Labour a high preference only to see them go into government with FG/FF, it's also worth considering how comfortable you'd be with any of the other most likely outcomes given the make-up of the independent and Independent Ireland candidates.
I'd settle for this assuming there is no real "minor" party as such. In all cases where there is a coalition the minor party (stakeholder) is almost always fecked over. As per Labour in 2010. They betrayed their campaign promises because they went into power, on a minor basis, and so just went with the prevailing orthodoxy and then said "pragmatist" when they came around again in 2015 looking for votes and were completely annihilated in the actual electoral result. The Lib Dems in England, at the exact same period in time, faced precisely the same problem and also the same outcome.
There is no scenario where SF/FG go into government together. SF/FF, whilst obviously not perfect, at least reflects something like a change.
For either of those scenarios to happen, Fine Gael really need to bomb in this election. Which is tricky given how transfer friendly they are to Fianna Fail voters.
I'm hoping against polling data reality that they are wiped out (stuck on 15% or something - a relative wipeout for FG). Unlikely, I know, but I can dream.
I’d be ok with a SF and FF coalition for now.
A sad truth as I do think the greens have delivered some good stuff while in government but there’s probably no point in voting for them. Which really does leave SF, who I’d be voting for as more of a middle finger to FFG than with any real belief they won’t be shite too.
Yeah, whether they are more or less shite than we imagine or they say, I think change for the sake of change is valid in this case. I think them in power will be a good shake up for our whole democracy. Otherwise it's a sham.
I don't think Sinn Fein will be shite, but they will get away with nothing. They will be the most held to account government in the history of the state if they get in.
Aye, but they rarely do what it says on the tin. That's one of the flaws with those surveys. That said I got 70% Soc Dems on that one @Pogue Mahone posted on the previous page, which bang on, as I do agree with probably more than 70% of their manifesto and if we didn't have a mountain of shit to shovel I'd love to live in a country that they could run. I just don't see them having the fight required.
Not sure i agree with that. Sinn Fein will get 2 td's elected in my constituency, thats a relatively safe bet, that leaves 3 seats and if Green and Labour aren't taking them then FFG will. Maybe in a general sense its true but i'd be a bit surprised if it was true in a practical sense in a lot of cases.
I just mean that they will go into coalition in a heartbeat. Vote left and they then transfer them right.
I read (most of) their manifesto this morning and reckon they’re getting my vote. I just can’t be arsed with tactical voting. Gonna vote for the manifesto that’s closest to what I want from a government.
Aye, to be honest if everyone voted that way they'd have a huge vote I reckon.
Yeah, thats true. Kind of unavoidable isn't it? I mean you could vote SF ahead of them I guess but any other vote is liable to end with FFG government and you picking their coalition partner basically.
I think tactical voting is pretty shite in a setup like ours, just vote for the people you want in office and let it pan out.
I don't really count avoiding Labour and the Greens as overly tactical. It's just common sense if you really dislike FG and FF, as they jump into bed with them again every opportunity and vote with them on every major parliamentary vote.
Yeah thats pretty sensible in general and i'd say there's very little room for it in this particular election even if you are disposed to it.
Its as good a reason as any to give one party a preference over another.
But if you voted Labour and they voted with the Government every time it'd be quite frustrating I imagine. And it's panned out that way every time.
In the 80s labour had no choice but to sip from the poisoned chalice but now surely a strong left wing opposition is the better choice for actual socialists.