Initially I feel like we will really shake it up, with Lingard, Cavani, Mata, Matic definitely gone on frees, and Greenwood likely to be unavailable/sacked. But on top of that we talk among ourselves and say one of Henderson/De Gea is gone, Bailly and Jones will be gone, one of Wan-Bissaka/Dalot out the door, Martial sold, Van De Beek potentially leaving, Pogba also going for free. Lee Grant I presume also retires or leaves if he wants to continue playing. Brandon Williams comes back and maybe gets sold on after his loan. I feel like maybe Dalot playing pushes up his value in the event we want to sell him, but we could give AWB a fresh start somewhere out on loan instead. There are several youngsters that could come back into the squad, the likes of Laird, and Garner, with others like Elanga and Hannibal already being primed for first team duties. I also feel Tuanzebe maybe given a second chance at CB under new managment.
So, we could see Matic, Mata, Lingard, Cavani, Martial, Bailly, Jones, Williams, Grant, and either of Dalot/Wan Bissaka and De Gea/Henderson leaving. 11 players leaving and potentially 1/2 others with Van De Beek/Pogba. Potentially 11-13 players leaving. This leaves us needing between 6-8 new players. With maybe Laird, Hannibal promoted, and both Pogba/VDB staying we would need to buy/promote another 4 players to fill out the squad to 24 in number, which actually sounds reasonable, especially considering one of those is a 3rd choice keeper.
Say both Pogba and VDB leave, that takes the number to 8 new players. Maybe one of the 2 is replaced by someone like Garner or similar, and we would then need 5 new signings, which again in a good year still seems doable, but our recent history suggest this may not be possible. Given the number of bodies that would see going out, maybe getting £10M for Bailly, £5M for Jones, £15-20M for Dalot, £30M for Martial, £10M for Williams, £30-50M for one of the GKs, and £20M back for Van De Beek if we are lucky. That would give around £120M to spend on top of a budget of £80-100M, so we'd maybe have £200M to spend. With Rangnick I am hoping that this is possible, and would give us an average of around £40M to spend per acquisition.
But, I am worried about the Tampa Bay Buccs, the Glazers' NFL side. With Tom Brady retiring they may feel a need to splash out there, and lets be honest they have far more interest in the NFL than they have ever had in the premier league. At this point the 2 teams spending large amounts on player acquisitions/contracts seem to have become mutually exclusive events. So if that number of players leave, and we need 4 or 5 new players, can we realistically expect the club to be spending £200-250M in the summer? While popular opinion is we will see 11/12 players leave this summer I am just not sure I see it happening. Yes bringing Rangnick in suggests the club are looking to rebuild on a large scale, but is it truly feasible given what is happening over there now Brady is retiring? And what are the chances of us getting anywhere close to decent fees given how poorly we have managed some of the players. If we get a much reduced transfer budget this summer, with our usual budget instead diverted to Tampa, we are relying on those departures to be able to bring anyone in. That would be us on the back foot with regard to players we want to bring in. Having to sell before bringing in targets could mean we miss out on our top targets, and end up panic buying, third, fourth or even fifth choice targets.
On top of that, the players that we want to shift aren't in all that much demand. Henderson will still gather interest, I feel De Gea too, so it depends who the new manager fancies. We are also reliant on Martial and Van De Beek having good loan spells if we wish to shift them in order to then raise those funds. If they don't, we may end up struggling to get a fee that is deemed acceptable by the financial bods, meaning we don't sell, and don't get the funds needed. Bailly and Jones, like I say aren't in demand, we may struggle to shift them. Dalot if he keeps performing to a half decent level like he has been, maybe saleable, same with Williams at Norwich. But if we need these sales in order to spend to replace Matic, Cavani, and Lingard/Mata's places in the squad, we may see more youth team promotions rather than incoming transfers.
I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the case, i.e. no real transfer funds without outgoings to also see them offer Pogba a big new contract, in an attempt to appease the fans due to the lack of business. I'm not saying keeping Pogba would be a bad thing, because it wouldn't, he's certainly better than our other deeper midfielders, but it is what it would be a precursor to that would be concerning.
So, after that rant, we know 4 are going (Lingard, Mata, Matic, Cavani), the potential could be 12 or so leaving. But I wouldn't be surprised if we end up somewhere around 6 leaving, say add Martial and Williams, with others staying, either from no interest or the board vetoing departures due to 'low fees'.