It’s usually something to do with your age during the qualifiers. I’m guessing UEFA don’t want the whole team who played through qualification to have to sit out the tournament.
How good are you at assessing the potential of young players?
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It’s usually something to do with your age during the qualifiers. I’m guessing UEFA don’t want the whole team who played through qualification to have to sit out the tournament.
I think I’m pretty good for an amateur, mainly because I don’t watch an 18 year old score a goal and instantly call him a future star like many on here do.
But as always with young players, the mentality (which we have 0 insight into) is the toughest part to evaluate and predict.
But as always with young players, the mentality (which we have 0 insight into) is the toughest part to evaluate and predict.
Pure wingers and CB’s are the easiest quite clearly for me. You watch a CB with pace that’s also comfortable on the ball under pressure and has a nice level of technicality and you can see that he’ll be a solid player for a big club at bare minimum. Wingers are a bit tougher but in general it’s easy to watch someone like Garnacho who has elite take on ability and pace to go along with some decent ball striking and project him to be a useful senior player even if he isn’t a superstar.
Midfielders are by far the most difficult, because it’s one of the more instinctive and cerebral positions and it’s where the game speeds up the most as you go up the leagues. Development is also supremely dependent on the clubs tactics and how they are used. The only way to really see is if they get thrown into a high level match and see how they cope. It’s why I don’t love just instantly loaning technical mids out to the Championship “just to get minutes”. You could have a fantastic tempo setting prospect, but if you stick him in some highly physical/grafting side that doesn’t see much of the ball people will think he’s crap and he won’t improve even if he’s playing every week.
I once scouted a young Kim Kallstrom on Championship Manager, I’ve pretty much dined out on that one since.
I have pretty good prediction rate vs others, but only because I'm a pessimist and barely rate anyone to make it who doesn't have a significant competitive advantage vs older age groups.
But if professional coaches, who see them day in day out, cannot tell, then we have very little chance. Mentality, physical growth, family, diet and luck (especially with injuries) all play a huge part.
But if professional coaches, who see them day in day out, cannot tell, then we have very little chance. Mentality, physical growth, family, diet and luck (especially with injuries) all play a huge part.
I thought Petrucci was going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread, so not great 
No one can know what goes on in their heads.
I think this is largely true and its also why so few midfielders ever get brought through from the academy successfully by top six clubs in the PL. The tactical requirements are really high for this position, most loans don't really expose players in a way that prepares them well for the level, and if you have a young midfielder who isn't on the same page as the rest of the side or who is a bit of a hothead that wants to do his own thing, it can ruin a match completely.
Not counting guys who really were attacking midfielders like Mount, the best true CMs successfully brought through from the academy by top six sides in the last 10-12 years have probably been McTominay, Loftus-Cheek, Gallagher, and Winks, which really says it all. Foden and TAA both could have been brought through as central midfielders but Pep and Klopp preferred to integrate them in other roles that required less tactical consistency and experience. Arteta took one look at Guendouzi's lack of tactical nous and shipped him away and Pep preferred to sign a limited DM like Kalvin Phillips rather than take a risk on Lavia.
Yeah, the reality is it’s easier for these top clubs to sell these midfield prospects for a bit of value and have a buyback clause without having to trust a teenager in a crucial position on the pitch.Especially in the PL, you don’t really get weeks where you can just stick a young kid out there without worrying about the match outcome like Bayern, Barca, or some serie A teams can.
Although I wish teams did it more. United obviously should have with Pogba.
I thought Mainoo was very impressive in his limited minutes last season and in the pre-season friendly vs Leeds.
I don't know much about evaluating youth players but if I would put money on any young midfielder turning into a star (ones that aren't already hyped to the roof), I would put it on Bajcetic for the scum.
He has a calmness that I've rarely seen in young midfielders.
Truer words have never been spoken on this forum
Which one of our youth players is most likely to be promoted to first team this season? Hannibal, Fernandez and Mainoo all impressed against Leeds. I’d probably go with Mainoo, showed quality in a position we desperately need quality in. He’s got good energy, good passing and strength. A bit like a pogba type except obviously he gives us more energy and determination.
Over the years I thought Laird, Chong, Pearson, Morrison, Angel, Wilson, Rossi and W Keane were all pretty much certs to make it here or at a very high level.
Of the ones that looked amazing but only kind of made it here Adnan, Pereria,
Pogba and Morrison were obviously talented in the same way Garnacho and Kobbie were in the latest fa youth cup winning side.
Greenwood, Garnacho, Mainoo, Amad and Hannibal are all right there now. All have top class potential. It’s all about luck and determination from then on because the talent is clearly there with all of them.
Of the ones that looked amazing but only kind of made it here Adnan, Pereria,
Pogba and Morrison were obviously talented in the same way Garnacho and Kobbie were in the latest fa youth cup winning side.
Greenwood, Garnacho, Mainoo, Amad and Hannibal are all right there now. All have top class potential. It’s all about luck and determination from then on because the talent is clearly there with all of them.
We had MUTV back in the day and Chris Eagles was the one I thought would be a mainstay here. How wro g was I. I think what TH has said is the best way to do it. If they dont show they are any better than who is already playing then they wont play. He wants potential future WC talent coming through. Garnacho is the first, maybe TH sees the same in Mainoo, but he didnt in Iqbal.
Edit On another note maybe were not getting the right calibre of player in the youth setup. How many have come through our ranks and gone on to be WC/very good even if they have left us? Pique? Was he really a Utd kid though. At a stretch Pogba, but we also poached him at an advanced age and was he anywhere near WC? There may be one or two others, but no one outside the class of 92 comes to mind as I write this.
Edit On another note maybe were not getting the right calibre of player in the youth setup. How many have come through our ranks and gone on to be WC/very good even if they have left us? Pique? Was he really a Utd kid though. At a stretch Pogba, but we also poached him at an advanced age and was he anywhere near WC? There may be one or two others, but no one outside the class of 92 comes to mind as I write this.
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Haven't been wrong in a long while, but I also haven't... followed anyone... in a long while...
Though I did feel like I had a decent eye, especially at Atletico when I followed them more closely, and noticed Koke early on. Kinda sad how in some aspects he mostly dropped off after age 24 or so. But I also thought Oliver (Torres) would be a huge star (though injury with such talents does tend to weaken the trajectory). He was such a huge talent, it was crazy, though I'm glad he sort of turned into a pretty decent 10 the past two seasons or so.
Now I mostly get triggered by players who show some type of specialism, like their timing in passing or something, rather than the brightest attacking talent. The last part is relatively easy to spot, and then it's just waiting to see how they'll develop and which plans they fall into. I still feel like David Neres could be big with his specific talents, but while he did seem to regain form in Benfica, the parts I saw of him were much more of a regular winger than what I liked about him before as a possible false winger/offensive midfielder type.
Though I did feel like I had a decent eye, especially at Atletico when I followed them more closely, and noticed Koke early on. Kinda sad how in some aspects he mostly dropped off after age 24 or so. But I also thought Oliver (Torres) would be a huge star (though injury with such talents does tend to weaken the trajectory). He was such a huge talent, it was crazy, though I'm glad he sort of turned into a pretty decent 10 the past two seasons or so.
Now I mostly get triggered by players who show some type of specialism, like their timing in passing or something, rather than the brightest attacking talent. The last part is relatively easy to spot, and then it's just waiting to see how they'll develop and which plans they fall into. I still feel like David Neres could be big with his specific talents, but while he did seem to regain form in Benfica, the parts I saw of him were much more of a regular winger than what I liked about him before as a possible false winger/offensive midfielder type.
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If we are that good we will be working as football scout
I find CB's at youth level really difficult to judge. We've had quite a few with pace and what looks at that level good techinque. They've got nowhere near.
Wingers I agree with. Elanga was probably our best U23 player a couple of years ago but I thought it was clear he wasn't good enough.
If you’d predicted that every one of our academy players of the last 30 years (post CO92) “won’t make it at United” then you’d have a pretty good % hit rate!
I still remember some passes Müller played in his breakout season 2010 (league and world cup).
I’m almost always wrong but was certain Carrick would be special when I saw him with England youth team.
I’m rubbish at it. We’re all rubbish at it. But don’t feel bad, because everyone is rubbish at it:
https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...0-of-the-best-young-talents-in-world-football
https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...0-of-the-best-young-talents-in-world-football
Potential is only the tip of the iceberg.
Unless a player is generational talent it’s easy to look like a clown when it doesn’t materialise.
Besides most of the time pure talent is not enough, there is also injuries when growing up, lack of character, etc.
some of the talents might not became great players if they got picked straight up by a big team as they wouldn’t have the stepping stone club, needed for their development, so basically lot of variables.
Unless a player is generational talent it’s easy to look like a clown when it doesn’t materialise.
Besides most of the time pure talent is not enough, there is also injuries when growing up, lack of character, etc.
some of the talents might not became great players if they got picked straight up by a big team as they wouldn’t have the stepping stone club, needed for their development, so basically lot of variables.
Everyone's rubbish at judging young players, but some people are worse than others.
Bit harsh on Elanga mate, full Sweden international and 50 appearances for United. I’d class him a success. He’ll certainly have a top flight career in the top 5 leagues. There’s plenty more forwards who’ve played for the academy in recent years that are down in the lower leagues right now.
I thought Obertan and Anderson were going to be great.
I was sure Nick Powell would take over from Scholes, think I am alright.
My best moments:
- I claimed that Luke Shaw would make a very good left-back, even though he didn't play very well in some seasons.
- I have always said that Bissaka was quality and was going to develop offensively.
- I claimed that Rashford would come back in a better version.
My worst moments:
- I claimed that Martinez was too short for PL as a center back.
- I claimed that Anders Lindegaard was better than De Gea.
- I claimed that Luke Shaw would make a very good left-back, even though he didn't play very well in some seasons.
- I have always said that Bissaka was quality and was going to develop offensively.
- I claimed that Rashford would come back in a better version.
My worst moments:
- I claimed that Martinez was too short for PL as a center back.
- I claimed that Anders Lindegaard was better than De Gea.
We are mostly good at identifying potential. It’s really not that hard.
But it’s another story in forecasting their ability to adapt to a new league, playing with older/better players, injury record and mental toughness, just to name a few.
But it’s another story in forecasting their ability to adapt to a new league, playing with older/better players, injury record and mental toughness, just to name a few.
You can make the same prediction for the entire world academies, the hit rate is very low.
I think many people thought the same about those two. I think the talent was there, perhaps they just made their big moves too early and couldn't cope with the pressure?
Mostly good at telling people a youth player isn't good enough to play for our first team when they convince themselves he is based on looking ok in a few reserve games.
Not so good at telling when someone will make it unless its blindingly obvious, and even then its hard to be sure because there's no way to gauge the mentality of the player. E.g. I thought Ravel Morrison would be a world beater, and Pogba basically the next Zidane. Obviously Pogba hasn't exactly had a bad career but he's nothing like the player I thought he'd develop into.
We've also had a lot of very technically good youngsters who I thought would have a chance and then just disappear off the football pyramid entirely, and others like Rashford who I never really saw breaking through in the way they have. Even Garnacho...I mean I thought he was pretty good but wouldn't have expected him to look nearly as good as he did last season.
Not so good at telling when someone will make it unless its blindingly obvious, and even then its hard to be sure because there's no way to gauge the mentality of the player. E.g. I thought Ravel Morrison would be a world beater, and Pogba basically the next Zidane. Obviously Pogba hasn't exactly had a bad career but he's nothing like the player I thought he'd develop into.
We've also had a lot of very technically good youngsters who I thought would have a chance and then just disappear off the football pyramid entirely, and others like Rashford who I never really saw breaking through in the way they have. Even Garnacho...I mean I thought he was pretty good but wouldn't have expected him to look nearly as good as he did last season.
I think it was fairly obviously attitude with Bramble, combined with making his debut at 16 and it going to his head.
Richard Wright was more of a pressure thing. He remains the best keeper I’ve ever seen play for Ipswich in pure shot stopping terms, but his judgement of high balls was not great. Reminds me of someone!
I remember watching Zidane at Bordeaux and thinking what a signing he'd be for United.
As a United fan, always judge potential talent coming through to the highest standard. Only ones I felt were certs to make it and I got really excited about from early in their youth team careers were Giggs, Scholes, Beckham, Pogba, Morrison, Greenwood and in terms of signings, Keane, Jones, Ronaldo, Anderson, Nani, Van Nistlerooy, Veron, Stam, Rooney etc were all ones I all expected to become greats. Ones we didnt sign that I was most upset about were Salas, Thuram, Rivaldo, Batistuta, Tevez (after loan), Ronaldinho, De Ligt, Rodwell. Think thats a decent record on judging talent.
BUT being an Irishman, I hope and presume every youngster is gonna be the next generational talent. Still waiting on Keith O'Neill, Ritchie Partridge, Mark Kennedy, Stephen McPhail, Alan Maybury, Graham Barrett, Liam George, Adam Rooney, Willo Flood, Willie Boland, Jason Gavin and the Irish Wayne Rooney, Terry Dixon to reach their potential. We've had so, so many false saviors over the years. Think my fellow Irish reds can probably add plenty other names to that list
BUT being an Irishman, I hope and presume every youngster is gonna be the next generational talent. Still waiting on Keith O'Neill, Ritchie Partridge, Mark Kennedy, Stephen McPhail, Alan Maybury, Graham Barrett, Liam George, Adam Rooney, Willo Flood, Willie Boland, Jason Gavin and the Irish Wayne Rooney, Terry Dixon to reach their potential. We've had so, so many false saviors over the years. Think my fellow Irish reds can probably add plenty other names to that list
It's almost impossible to determine a 16-17 year old unless they are so insanely talented that only injuries or a lack of determination can stop them. To this day, Ravel Morrison is the most talented I have seen at United, including Giggs. He would have been a world-beater if he had 50% of Gary Nevilles determination. Of the class of 92, the one most talked about was Nicky Butt. I remember watching the FA Youth Cup-finals and Scholes, Beckham, Neville - they were hardly mentioned. It was Butt, Giggs and I even think Gillespie was mentioned more than Scholes and Becks.
As for 2 of the most impressive performances I saw from a non United-player. Villas U21 destroyed us in a match around 2010 - in midfield was a young Scot called Barry Bannan - I have never seen one played destroy our youngsters as much as he did in that game. But he never managed to be a regular at Villa and has spent the last almost 10 seasons at Wednesday.
The best performance I have ever seen at youth level was a young welsh guy around the same time - I think Wales U21 beat Sweden some insane result 5-4 or 5-3 - and there was this guy in midfield who was just insane. Imagine my joy when we signed him (according to our homepage) - only for them to remove it a few hours later, as he instead signed for Arsenal. His name was Aaron Ramsey
As for 2 of the most impressive performances I saw from a non United-player. Villas U21 destroyed us in a match around 2010 - in midfield was a young Scot called Barry Bannan - I have never seen one played destroy our youngsters as much as he did in that game. But he never managed to be a regular at Villa and has spent the last almost 10 seasons at Wednesday.
The best performance I have ever seen at youth level was a young welsh guy around the same time - I think Wales U21 beat Sweden some insane result 5-4 or 5-3 - and there was this guy in midfield who was just insane. Imagine my joy when we signed him (according to our homepage) - only for them to remove it a few hours later, as he instead signed for Arsenal. His name was Aaron Ramsey
Remember the summer of 2019 when we all thought the current crop at the time (Garner Gomez, G-, Chong) we're gonna break through? Remember that?
I watched original Ronaldo, Messi, Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo as teenagers and knew they’d make it to a decent level so I could probably have made it as a scout at United post Sir Alex.
I think I’m quite good at judging young players and what they may achieve but the one who I got horribly wrong was januzaj. Honestly felt he was going to the top. Sometimes it’s not all about talent as well, mentality is just as important and that’s obviously harder to judge without knowing them. Martial being the obvious one who springs to mind, all the talent with no fight and desire to get to the top.
Probably not a good time to say this but I have high hopes for Mainoo. But that’s been the case for me since I saw him as a 16yo
Probably not a good time to say this but I have high hopes for Mainoo. But that’s been the case for me since I saw him as a 16yo
A good 75/80% of this forum are absolutely shockingly horrible at it....
You only have to look back 12-months at the posts calling for Laird to replace AWB and for Zidane Iqbal to come into the team to see that.
The problem is for most posters is that a) they haven't played the game to any sort of standard whatsoever and b) therefore don't understand 'levels' in football.
As a result, it becomes hard for these posters to assess footballers who have largely appeared in weaker competitions/friendlies/'unders' football. Of course any half-decent player is going to stand out and post good metrics playing in the u23s. 75% of their opponents won't make it as professional footballers at all, let alone at the top level.
Likewise, it's hard for them to assess players who have largely appeared in the Bundesliga or Ligue Un. Not because these leagues are so shockingly terrible that they bear no comparison, but because the best teams are so much better than the worst teams.
In order to really judge a player, you have to see what they do in small moments of the game that aren't necessarily captured by the Data. You have to see many things in each technical aspect of their game. For example, how they control the ball, do they take it in their stride? Is their first touch out from under their feet? If they're a winger/wide forward, are they quickly able to turn at pace and gather momentum? If they're a CM, can they shield the ball under heavy pressure? Can they play on the 'half-turn'? Are they 'surviving' on the ball, or are they progressing the ball?
With passing, do they pass the ball at speed and into space? Do they really fire the ball into their teammate? Do they see passes other players don't? Do they have a complete picture in their head? What's the weight of pass like? Can they pass with both feet? What's their range of passing? Can they pass under pressure?
The people I class as 'know-nothings' will say 'player X has completed 88% of passes' but that's meaningless on it's own. Sure, teams can use Data to compile a long-list of targets, but the shortlist will ALWAYS rely on the 'eye test'.
Finally, the biggest single factor for me in modern football is 'aggression'...and I don't mean 'do they pick fights?'....I mean, do they do what they do aggressively? Do they run and close down aggressively? Do they attack space aggressively? Do they challenge in the air aggressively? Do they pass aggressively? Even a players' movements can be 'aggressive', or at least 'progressive'.
A player like Sancho, for example, badly lacks aggression. A player like Anthony does have 'aggression', and that's why I think he will prove a success in-time, or at least, will remain a useful part of our squad of 15/16 for the foreseeable. Martinez has it. Malacia has it. Mount has it. Casemiro has it. You can really see what ETH is doing. Even Onana is an 'aggressive' goalkeeper, to replace a 'passive' goalkeeper.
Garnacho has it, and that's why he is a standout at his age. Elanga does have it too, and that's why Ragnick picked him, and that's why Sweden pick him. He just lacks the required technical attributes to go with it at the very highest level.
You only have to look back 12-months at the posts calling for Laird to replace AWB and for Zidane Iqbal to come into the team to see that.
The problem is for most posters is that a) they haven't played the game to any sort of standard whatsoever and b) therefore don't understand 'levels' in football.
As a result, it becomes hard for these posters to assess footballers who have largely appeared in weaker competitions/friendlies/'unders' football. Of course any half-decent player is going to stand out and post good metrics playing in the u23s. 75% of their opponents won't make it as professional footballers at all, let alone at the top level.
Likewise, it's hard for them to assess players who have largely appeared in the Bundesliga or Ligue Un. Not because these leagues are so shockingly terrible that they bear no comparison, but because the best teams are so much better than the worst teams.
In order to really judge a player, you have to see what they do in small moments of the game that aren't necessarily captured by the Data. You have to see many things in each technical aspect of their game. For example, how they control the ball, do they take it in their stride? Is their first touch out from under their feet? If they're a winger/wide forward, are they quickly able to turn at pace and gather momentum? If they're a CM, can they shield the ball under heavy pressure? Can they play on the 'half-turn'? Are they 'surviving' on the ball, or are they progressing the ball?
With passing, do they pass the ball at speed and into space? Do they really fire the ball into their teammate? Do they see passes other players don't? Do they have a complete picture in their head? What's the weight of pass like? Can they pass with both feet? What's their range of passing? Can they pass under pressure?
The people I class as 'know-nothings' will say 'player X has completed 88% of passes' but that's meaningless on it's own. Sure, teams can use Data to compile a long-list of targets, but the shortlist will ALWAYS rely on the 'eye test'.
Finally, the biggest single factor for me in modern football is 'aggression'...and I don't mean 'do they pick fights?'....I mean, do they do what they do aggressively? Do they run and close down aggressively? Do they attack space aggressively? Do they challenge in the air aggressively? Do they pass aggressively? Even a players' movements can be 'aggressive', or at least 'progressive'.
A player like Sancho, for example, badly lacks aggression. A player like Anthony does have 'aggression', and that's why I think he will prove a success in-time, or at least, will remain a useful part of our squad of 15/16 for the foreseeable. Martinez has it. Malacia has it. Mount has it. Casemiro has it. You can really see what ETH is doing. Even Onana is an 'aggressive' goalkeeper, to replace a 'passive' goalkeeper.
Garnacho has it, and that's why he is a standout at his age. Elanga does have it too, and that's why Ragnick picked him, and that's why Sweden pick him. He just lacks the required technical attributes to go with it at the very highest level.