Goalscoring - our biggest/consistent failure over the last 10 years

[fergiewherearethou]

Well the answer is simple, feed the ball to Wout Weghorst and the problem is solved, we'll go over 100 goals per season in no time.
On a serious note, we are not solving the issue by purchasing 1 striker, that would obviously help, but would not make us score 2 goals per game. We need all of our attacking players capable of scoring goals like City and Pool.
When you have quality attacking options, a solid system put in place and you add to that a world class striker you get Haaland's numbers.

 

[Skills]

Well the answer is simple, feed the ball to Wout Weghorst and the problem is solved, we'll go over 100 goals per season in no time.
On a serious note, we are not solving the issue by purchasing 1 striker, that would obviously help, but would not make us score 2 goals per game. We need all of our attacking players capable of scoring goals like City and Pool.
When you have quality attacking options, a solid system put in place and you add to that a world class striker you get Haaland's numbers.

Yup. I'll bring it back to this - Guardiola got City scoring 83 goals in a league season with his top scoring being Ilkay Gundogan with 13 goals.

Last season he got 99 goals out of them with De Bruyne top scoring with 15 goals.

 

[ShinjiNinja26]

We’re in desperate need of a top class finisher, we’ve underperformed our xG by like 7.02 this season which is terrible. I also think our off the ball movement and attacking runs are piss poor as well and is something that’s plagued us for years now.

 

[Oranges038]

Scoring has indeed been a problem.

But the other end has also been a problem conceding on average over a goal a game nearly every year in that time as well.

 

[Bebestation]

Id say that our 1 consistent problem over the decade has actually been de gea. Build a team from back etc.

 

[Skills]

Scoring has indeed been a problem.

But the other end has also been a problem conceding on average over a goal a game nearly every year in that time as well.

Our goals conceded have been decent for many of those seasons. The last few years have been shocking though.

Season	Manager	GA	GA/g
2013/2014	David Moyes/Ryan Giggs (interim)	43	1.13
2014/2015	Louis van Gaal	37	0.97
2015/2016	Louis van Gaal	35	0.92
2016/2017	José Mourinho	29	0.76
2017/2018	José Mourinho	28	0.74
2018/2019	José Mourinho/Ole Gunnar Solskjær	54	1.42
2019/2020	Ole Gunnar Solskjær	36	0.95
2020/2021	Ole Gunnar Solskjær	44	1.16
2021/2022	Ole Gunnar Solskjær/Ralf Rangnick	57	1.5
2022/2023	Erik Ten Hag* in 34 games	41	1.21

5/10 seasons we've conceded more than a goal a game.

 

[acnumber9]

We haven’t had strikers who like to get in the six yard box or anybody with any crossing ability in the squad. We don’t get enough cheap or scrappy goals and our forward movement has been mostly abysmal.

 

[Syphon Wallet]

And it won't change until we buy a proper striker.

I'm not convinced... Think any striker we bring in will struggle, as he will be feeding off scraps.
Look at the assists that Rashford and Antony have.
Who's going to be the creator with a bucket of assists for the new striker?

 

[Solius]

It is a bit mental that relegation threatened Everton are even managing to score 5 in a game and the last time we did that was against Leeds in August 2021.

Just looked into this a bit more. Last time a team scored 5 or more.

Everton - 8th May 2023
Fulham - 8th May 2023
Brighton - 29th April 2023
Newcastle - 23rd April 2023
Liverpool - 17th April 2023
Crystal Palace - 9th April 2023
Man City - 18th March 2023
Leeds - 18th Jan 2023
Arsenal - 30th October 2022
Notts Forest - 30th April 2022
Spurs - 17th Sept 2022
Brentford - 3rd Sept 2022
Chelsea - 8th Jan 2022
Southampton - 25th August 2021
Aston Villa - 24th August 2021
Manchester Utd - 14th August 2021
Bournemouth - 31st July 2021
Leicester - 14th March 2021
West Ham - 22nd Sept 2020
Wolves - 25th Nov 2017

We are also possibly the only team not to score 4 goals this season in a PL game. I can't be arsed to check again but most teams had.

 

[Oranges038]

Our goals conceded have been decent for many of those seasons. The last few years have been shocking though.

Season	Manager	GA	GA/g
2013/2014	David Moyes/Ryan Giggs (interim)	43	1.13
2014/2015	Louis van Gaal	37	0.97
2015/2016	Louis van Gaal	35	0.92
2016/2017	José Mourinho	29	0.76
2017/2018	José Mourinho	28	0.74
2018/2019	José Mourinho/Ole Gunnar Solskjær	54	1.42
2019/2020	Ole Gunnar Solskjær	36	0.95
2020/2021	Ole Gunnar Solskjær	44	1.16
2021/2022	Ole Gunnar Solskjær/Ralf Rangnick	57	1.5
2022/2023	Erik Ten Hag* in 34 games	41	1.21

5/10 seasons we've conceded more than a goal a game.

That's only the PL? I was looking at all comps.

14/15 - 16/17 - 17/18 - under 1.

Every other year has been between 1 and 1.5.

When your only scoring between 1 and 2 goals a game, to be conceding almost the same amount as well. It's very hard to be successful.

There's a lot of variables in there, but a big problem in both respects for me has been in the total mess in the midfield area, not able to keep the ball to control and dictate games, not enough creativity, not enough goals coming from there and players with poor defensive positioning has been a problem.

 

[acnumber9]

I'm not convinced... Think any striker we bring in will struggle, as he will be feeding off scraps.
Look at the assists that Rashford and Antony have.
Who's going to be the creator with a bucket of assists for the new striker?

Rashford has 11 assists in all competitions. 3 less than Bruno. Him and Antony don’t belong in the same conversation.

 

[tenpoless]

Rashford Oshimen/Kane Mbappe

sounds like an obvious solution...

 

[Siorac]

We are clearly creating chances now, big chances and rank highly on this regard. We are also missing big chances far to often.

We're 6th in xG, 4th in big chances created, 5th in shots. Even if we were more clinical, that's not good enough (City are 1st, 1st, 3rd, Arsenal are 3rd, 6th, 1st, Liverpool are 2nd, 2nd, 2nd).

Our chance creation is pretty much on the expected level of a team fighting for 4th place.

 

[Siorac]

Our lack of finishers has been a much bigger issue post Fergie than creating chances in the first place.

No, creating chances has been massive issue throughout. Our xG rankings over the years:

14/15: 5th
15/16: 10th
16/17: 6th
17/18: 6th
18/19: 3rd
19/20: 4th
20/21: 4th
21/22: 6th

We have significantly overperformed xG in 14/15, 17/18, 20/21. In other seasons expected goals were fairly close to actual goals. This is the first season where we score significantly less than our xG would suggest.

We haven't been a creative, constantly threatening team for over a decade. The common denominator was and remains not creating enough quality chances. Obviously, a brilliant finisher getting goals out of nothing would alleviate the problem a bit but it doesn't solve the main issue.

 

[The Purley King]

Centre forwards used to be instructed to play within the lines of the penalty area - do not go any wider than that on the pitch. Our attackers are constantly in wide positions, Rashford and Martial both prefer playing wide, WW has completely mystifyingly been used as a 10.
When we get into promising positions, there is nobody breaking their neck to get into the box to get on the end of a cross or pull back. If someone does make that run its usually one of our midfielders, which isn't their main job.
We desperately need a "proper" centre forward. Don't go out to the wings, stay central and get on the end of things.

 

[Kostov]

34 games gone and we have 49 goals scored, yet some brainiacs will tell you it's because of the GK or because of we don't build up from the back. Wake the feck up, we've been doing it the whole season I mean building up from the back, it's not about that.

- Rashford is in the season of his career and has scored 29 goals with 11 assists.
- Salah on the decline or having a shit season scoring 30 goals and 11 assists.

 

[youngrell]

It's been a huge problem. Highlighted as recently as our last 2 games where we had several good chances in each and lost both 1-0.

 

[AndySmith1990]

Doesn't help that we keep buying short term stop gaps. The lack of planning and long term vision is staggering. To spend over a billion in a decade and end up with Martial and Weghorst as the only two options up front epitomises how badly we've got recruitment wrong

 

[Smores]

No, creating chances has been massive issue throughout. Our xG rankings over the years:

14/15: 5th
15/16: 10th
16/17: 6th
17/18: 6th
18/19: 3rd
19/20: 4th
20/21: 4th
21/22: 6th

We have significantly overperformed xG in 14/15, 17/18, 20/21. In other seasons expected goals were fairly close to actual goals. This is the first season where we score significantly less than our xG would suggest.

We haven't been a creative, constantly threatening team for over a decade. The common denominator was and remains not creating enough quality chances. Obviously, a brilliant finisher getting goals out of nothing would alleviate the problem a bit but it doesn't solve the main issue.

Were we definitely top on xG during Fergie though? It's difficult to find but his last season from a search seems like we weren't and we overproduced. I seriously wouldn't be surprised if in his last 5 seasons we were around the 4th xG ranking.

Under Fergie we were nearly always clinical even when our play wasn't great and it makes all the difference.

 

[Lentwood]

Its not for lack of chances. We've created as many big chances as Arsenal this season, we just have a shocking conversion rate

 

[TMDaines]

And it won't change until we buy a proper striker.

It won't, but it would also be naive to think that is all we need to do.

In modern football, you build from the back so having the right players in deeper positions is just as important as having the forwards to finish the chances.

 

[Siorac]

Were we definitely top on xG during Fergie though? It's difficult to find but his last season from a search seems like we weren't and we overproduced. I seriously wouldn't be surprised if in his last 5 seasons we were around the 4th xG ranking.

Under Fergie we were nearly always clinical even when our play wasn't great and it makes all the difference.

And the decline in our general play during Fergie's final seasons was a recurring complaint from fans, and with good reason.

Still, we scored 89 league goals in both 11/12 and 12/13. The gap between that and our current goalscoring troubles isn't simply down to finishing - we created a lot more than we do now. I'd go as far as saying that creating a lot of high quality chances is more important than being clinical. If you create enough, the goals will come. That's how City kept scoring 90+ goals even without a top class goalscorer.

 

[Loony BoB]

You can win from scoring lots of goals, or you can win from conceding very few goals. Generally speaking, SAF was definitely in favour of the score lots of goals mentality, which is absolutely my favoured strategy too, and a big reason why I liked Ole - he favoured attack over defence. The big, absolute key is goal difference. In only one season did SAF not have a goal difference higher than 42 and not win the league (97-98), and of all his title-winning seasons, only once did he have a goal difference below 38 (96-97).

Since he left, only Jose has managed a goal difference higher than 30 in a season, when we had a goal difference of 40 and finished 2nd (17-18).

In title-winning seasons, our lowest goals for was that of 68 goals in 08-09, when we managed to keep a high goal difference due to conceding only 24 goals, a feat only achieved and bettered once before (22 goals conceded the previous season, 07-08).
In title-winning seasons, our highest goals against was that of 45 goals in 99-00, when we managed to keep a high goal difference due to scoring a whopping 97 goals, our highest ever tally in 38 game seasons.

So, I feel it's relatively safe to say that our bare minimum requirements for getting 1st would be to concede fewer than 45 goals and score more than 68 goals. Until we can manage both of these, unless we intend to break SAF-era records, we need to both score more AND concede fewer goals. We've scored 68 or more twice, and conceded 45 or fewer 8 times.

In the 10 seasons since SAF left, we have managed to score more than our average goals scored in title-winning seasons (79) on zero occasions, and concede fewer than our average goals conceded in title-winning seasons (34) on two occasions.

So yeah, probably scoring more is the bigger concern overall, but we definitely need to do better in both areas if we want to contend.

Stats below for those who like 'em.

 

[JagUTD]

No, creating chances has been massive issue throughout. Our xG rankings over the years:

14/15: 5th
15/16: 10th
16/17: 6th
17/18: 6th
18/19: 3rd
19/20: 4th
20/21: 4th
21/22: 6th

We have significantly overperformed xG in 14/15, 17/18, 20/21. In other seasons expected goals were fairly close to actual goals. This is the first season where we score significantly less than our xG would suggest.

We haven't been a creative, constantly threatening team for over a decade. The common denominator was and remains not creating enough quality chances. Obviously, a brilliant finisher getting goals out of nothing would alleviate the problem a bit but it doesn't solve the main issue.

Again, this goes back to how stats don't give the full picture. We have all watched the games this season and we have all seen that we have created some brilliant chances only for one of the attackers to fail to convert. We don't need a striker who can create out of nothing, we need one who can finish the chances being made. It's clearly our most pressing issue, not the only one of course but one that unless address, will see us scrapping it out for 4th again next season.

 

[Skills]

Again, this goes back to how stats don't give the full picture. We have all watched the games this season and we have all seen that we have created some brilliant chances only for one of the attackers to fail to convert. We don't need a striker who can create out of nothing, we need one who can finish the chances being made. It's clearly our most pressing issue, not the only one of course but one that unless address, will see us scrapping it out for 4th again next season.

Have you watched every single other Premier League game as well, and seen all the chances that other teams miss/score? Which of the 5 teams should we ahead of in terms of good chances created this season?

 

[JagUTD]

34 games gone and we have 49 goals scored, yet some brainiacs will tell you it's because of the GK or because of we don't build up from the back. Wake the feck up, we've been doing it the whole season I mean building up from the back, it's not about that.

- Rashford is in the season of his career and has scored 29 goals with 11 assists.
- Salah on the decline or having a shit season scoring 30 goals and 11 assists.

Put any top class number 9 in this side back in August, and play out the season exactly as it has but with the chances that fell for Ronaldo, Weghorst or Martial and we are in a far better position

Do the same by swapping De Gea out for whichever keeper is the choice of the day and it's far more difficult to see if we would be better or worse off. We'd still probably get battered at City and Liverpool for example, that was a collective failure. Do we get a point v West Ham? Maybe, but then the above applies as well.

 

[JagUTD]

Have you watched every single other Premier League game as well, and seen all the chances that other teams miss/score? Which of the 5 teams should we ahead of in terms of good chances created this season?

Can't say I have but those teams don't really concern me to much. But I can see that United have a real issue scoring goals and it's not because of a lack of chances.

 

[Siorac]

Again, this goes back to how stats don't give the full picture. We have all watched the games this season and we have all seen that we have created some brilliant chances only for one of the attackers to fail to convert. We don't need a striker who can create out of nothing, we need one who can finish the chances being made. It's clearly our most pressing issue, not the only one of course but one that unless address, will see us scrapping it out for 4th again next season.

And we have all seen the games where we created absolutely feck all - but fans are more likely to remember those games when nothing seemed to go in. Look at West Ham away though: once De Gea managed to gift them a goal, we created essentially nothing. We didn't have a meaningful goalscoring opportunity until the Rashford-Martial one-two late on and even then Martial was at a tight angle, under pressure from the defender.

Look at Palace away. We scored one and should have had a penalty - but that's about it. We ceded control, we posed little attacking threat, and dropped points in the end. Arsenal at the Emirates: we were highly clinical in that game. We still lose because the other team, despite being more wasteful, created a lot more. Fulham in the FA Cup: our first real chance was the one that led to the penalty and red card. Sevilla away: absolutely nothing. Newcastle away: absolutely nothing. And I could go on.

Goalscoring is a big problem. Part of the problem is being wasteful. An even bigger part is simply not creating enough high quality chances. It has been a problem for years and it still is.

 

[Member 109952]

The best period was when we had the trio of Rashford, Martial, Greenwood, and it's no coincidence or luck. We looked so much better with those three spearheading our attack because - when they were in form - they could all dribble which opened up teams, could all shield the ball under pressure which allowed us to sustain attacks and pressure in the oppositions 3rd, could all interchange which, again, opened up teams as their movement pulled the opposition out of areas.

The problem then was the lack of progressive coaching on Ole's part, and the rest of the team behind those three. If we had those three in the form they were in that season under ten Hag, and ahead of our first choice XI this season, I think it would've easily have been our best goalscoring season post Fergie.

It is not rocket science. Get strong, press resistant players and you will naturally produce good stuff. A top coach on top of that (which hopefully ten Hag will turn out to be) is the combination needed to compete at the top. I just hope we get said players in the summer!

Agreed.

Despite our lack of a striker, the bigger issue has been the wide forwards. We've rarely had technical wide players that can take players on and also score. Rashford is good, but he's a tier or two below the likes of Mane and Salah. Signings like Sancho, Antony, and the likes of Depay and Mikhi before them have not helped.

Signing someone like Osimhen or Kane will help us but we will never truly challenge for the league or the CL until we get two top quality wide forwards to start. Luckily for us Rashford has shown he can be that on the left, but the right position will still need sorting.

 

[Skills]

Can't say I have but those teams don't really concern me to much. But I can see that United have a real issue scoring goals and it's not because of a lack of chances.

This makes no sense. The numbers are suggesting we're only the 6th best team in the league at creating chances - but you have a problem with that, based on having watched every single United game.

So my question is, what has you convinced that we are better at creating chances than any of the following teams : Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Brighton and Newcastle?

 

[JagUTD]

This makes no sense. The numbers are suggesting we're only the 6th best team in the league at creating chances - but you have a problem with that, based on having watched every single United game.

So my question is, what has you convinced that we are better at creating chances than any of the following teams : Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Brighton and Newcastle?

I'm not saying we are better than those 4 teams though. I'm just saying we create plenty of chances. We just waste far to many. A quality striker would likely help significantly.

 

[Skills]

I'm not saying we are better than those 4 teams though. I'm just saying we create plenty of chances. We just waste far to many. A quality striker would likely help significantly.

You think the 6th most chances in the league is plenty?

 

[Nevilles.Wear.Prada]

Number 9 is historically the most important (or second most after No. 10) position in the pitch. We have signed 2 No.9 younger than 30 since SAF left: Lukaku and Martial.

My god, this is even more of a mental stats compared to OPs stats

 

[Nevilles.Wear.Prada]

Problem is even top notch strikers needs a good service from midfield. As long as players like fred, mctom, ddg awb are still here, the midfield will be under heavy stress. Its a circular problem.

 

[Cathy Ferguson]

I will be very surprised if Sancho, Antony, Martial and Weghorst score more than one goal combined in our remaining 4 games.

 

[JagUTD]

You think the 6th most chances in the league is plenty?

I'm all for more chances of course.

 

[TheRedDevil'sAdvocate]

The best period was when we had the trio of Rashford, Martial, Greenwood, and it's no coincidence or luck. We looked so much better with those three spearheading our attack because - when they were in form - they could all dribble which opened up teams, could all shield the ball under pressure which allowed us to sustain attacks and pressure in the oppositions 3rd, could all interchange which, again, opened up teams as their movement pulled the opposition out of areas.

The problem then was the lack of progressive coaching on Ole's part, and the rest of the team behind those three. If we had those three in the form they were in that season under ten Hag, and ahead of our first choice XI this season, I think it would've easily have been our best goalscoring season post Fergie.

It is not rocket science. Get strong, press resistant players and you will naturally produce good stuff. A top coach on top of that (which hopefully ten Hag will turn out to be) is the combination needed to compete at the top. I just hope we get said players in the summer!

Yes and no. We had our best period with them in terms of absolute numbers, but not because they were good at opening up defences. It was because they were all good finishers having a good season. In 20/21, when we had Bruno from the start and added Cavani midseason, we over performed our xG by almost 10 goals. In terms of chance creation, our xG was quite consistent (mid to high 60s) throughout Solskjaer's reign. We will probably reach the same numbers in the last 4 games of the season under ETH.

And while i was never a big fan of Solskjaer, the manager, it is a bit disingenuous to lay all the blame at his feet. I've argued before that McFred in the midfield was the symptom and not the problem itself. These three are good finishers, but their game lacks a lot of other things. They're not good in the air, they don't win second balls, they often pull away from a challenge, they don't like defending, and they prefer to create chances for themselves and to be direct and risky. They needed someone to mop up behind them, which led to McTominay and Fred becoming almost a necessity in the midfield. Balance is about creating the right synergies all over the pitch, not constantly trying to even out an extreme in one area with another elsewhere on the pitch.

Now, you may look at the 73 goals we scored in 20/21and the xG (over performed by ten goals) and then look at our 49 goals thus far this season and the xG (underperforming by ten goals) and argue that this is it: Problem solved. But, although this season's attacking performance needs to be improved, there are two things that need to be factored in: Firstly, you can't expect to over perform your xG by 10+ goals every season. And even if you do, mid/high 60s xG doesn't give you a title challenge. Not anymore.

 

[Ish]

For some reason I had Liverpool down as pretty free scoring under Rodgers

 

[redmanx]

One striker up front doesnt seem to work for us, at our best we've almost always played with two. Taylor/Violett, Law/Herd, Law/Kidd, Macari/ Pearson, Macari/Jordan, Hughes/Stapelton, Hughes/McClair, Hughes/Cantona, Cantona/Cole, Cole/Yorke, Nistleroy/Rooney, Rooney/Berbatov, with other players scoring from midfield, the wings and defence for fun. Why must we play out from the back in formations which only have room for a lone striker or, at best, somebody like Bruno playing behind? Why not ditch al, that and go back to being an attacking, exciting team making plenty of chances and scoring plenty of goals!

 

[King Azaz the Unabridged]

No, creating chances has been massive issue throughout. Our xG rankings over the years:

14/15: 5th
15/16: 10th
16/17: 6th
17/18: 6th
18/19: 3rd
19/20: 4th
20/21: 4th
21/22: 6th

We have significantly overperformed xG in 14/15, 17/18, 20/21. In other seasons expected goals were fairly close to actual goals. This is the first season where we score significantly less than our xG would suggest.

We haven't been a creative, constantly threatening team for over a decade. The common denominator was and remains not creating enough quality chances. Obviously, a brilliant finisher getting goals out of nothing would alleviate the problem a bit but it doesn't solve the main issue.

This is spot on, and the bolded bit lines up with the eye test too - this is the only season since Fergie that we can genuinely say we've created more chances than the goals-for figure suggests (and even then, we haven't created enough to be where we want to be). Fernandes in particular has suffered massively from having to rely on Ronaldo / Weghorst / Martial / Sancho / Antony to finish - his expected assists figure in the league is close to double the actual number

But as said, this season is an outlier. It's been a constant narrative over the years that we've somehow been unlucky with finishing and opposition keepers always have blinders against us (most frequently heard in 2016/17), and it never made any sense to me. Just another example of bias - people watch us 90 minutes every week and remember every single missed chance, every good save that the keeper makes against us, and figure this means we're bad at finishing*, without really thinking about how many high-value chances we create relative to the top teams. Every single team misses easy chances - the best ones score the most goals because they create chances at a frequency we haven't hit in a decade.

*going back to the 16/17 example again, you can't have a topic about Ibrahimovic's performance that season without someone claiming his shit finishing cost us points and he missed "the most big chances in the league" or whatever - never mind that he actually outperformed his XG (source: Understat) in the league!