German Football 20/21

The opening match on tomorrow in Munich will be without fans after all.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
I don't know about GoalImpact.
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Basically, it's a stat created by a mathematician that tries to convey one thing and one thing only: How does a player being on the pitch and being not on the pitch influence the goal difference of his team.
In their own words:
"Goalimpact measures the extent that a player contributes to the goal difference of a team. If a player is assigned a high index value, then the team has a good goal difference when this player is on the pitch compared to matches where this player is not active.
We average the impact of all games of a player’s career for all clubs, competitions and seasons in relation to all other players in our database. This rating is adjusted by teammate’s values and the opposition strength, furthermore by such factors as number of minutes played, home advantage, fatigue degree and red cards in a game."

It's the only stat I've found that really captures a player's "x-factor", i.e. contributions that can't really be measured by goals, assists, key passes, tackles won etc.
For example, for 2011 or 2012 on, Thomas Müller consistently had a Goalimpact comparable to or even above Messi and Ronaldo despite scoring and assisting less. Him playing or him not playing had the biggest impact out of any player on his teams performance, irrespective of how good or bad his individual performance was.
The stat also predicted that Alphonso Davies would turn into an absolute monster way before his transfer to Bayern.
 
Given that Thiago is finally going, what are Bayern planning to replace him? It seems they won't get a RB so that would mean Kimmich is their backup RB and therefore if a similar situation comes to like the UCL later stages, where Kimmich played RB, you would have to play a weaker midfielder.

Are they going to continue with Tolisso and hope that Cuisance develop (though he is now attacking)? Bayern have lost 3 players this summer, Coutinho, Perisic and Thiago, but brought in only 1. I think they will be lacking numbers in attack next season.
 
Cheimoon said:
Interesting. Assuming their assessment of players is fairly reliable, the difference between their prediction table and actual table is then primarily a comment on each team's coach.
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I think the main purpose of their algorithm is to assess individual players and perhaps most importantly make predictions about their future development. Off-label use like applying it to forecast expected points makes it a bit wonky, but since you can't do the eye test on every single team yourself I think it's a decent indicator to give you some perspective. I'll be watching U. Berlin through a different lens now for example to see whether it was just a blip in the algorithm or whether their squad might indeed be better than most people give them credit for.

hasanejaz88 said:
Given that Thiago is finally going, what are Bayern planning to replace him? It seems they won't get a RB so that would mean Kimmich is their backup RB and therefore if a similar situation comes to like the UCL later stages, where Kimmich played RB, you would have to play a weaker midfielder.

Are they going to continue with Tolisso and hope that Cuisance develop (though he is now attacking)? Bayern have lost 3 players this summer, Coutinho, Perisic and Thiago, but brought in only 1. I think they will be lacking numbers in attack next season.
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Some headline on TM said that they want to replace him with Tolisso and instead look for a RB like Dest with the money.
 
do.ob said:
I think the main purpose of their algorithm is to assess individual players and perhaps most importantly make predictions about their future development. Off-label use like applying it to forecast expected points makes it a bit wonky, but since you can't do the eye test on every single team yourself I think it's a decent indicator to give you some perspective. I'll be watching U. Berlin through a different lens now for example to see whether it was just a blip in the algorithm or whether their squad might indeed be better than most people give them credit for.




Some headline on TM said that they want to replace him with Tolisso and instead look for a RB like Dest with the money.
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Only if they play him, otherwise please leave our wonderful right back alone. We dont need more Yedlin as our RB for the national team!
 
So, what's the general take here on who'll be relegated this season? Still have to log in my candidates for a prediction game. Köln? For sure. I haven't seen anything from Bielefeld or Stuttgart last season. How good are their squads actually?
For now I'm going with Köln and Bielefeld on 17 and 18, and one of Mainz/Bremen/Union/VfB/Schalke finishing on 16. So many choices this season.. :lol:
 
do.ob said:
I think the main purpose of their algorithm is to assess individual players and perhaps most importantly make predictions about their future development. Off-label use like applying it to forecast expected points makes it a bit wonky, but since you can't do the eye test on every single team yourself I think it's a decent indicator to give you some perspective. I'll be watching U. Berlin through a different lens now for example to see whether it was just a blip in the algorithm or whether their squad might indeed be better than most people give them credit for.




Some headline on TM said that they want to replace him with Tolisso and instead look for a RB like Dest with the money.
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Yea first it seemed Dest was going to Barca but it seems Bayern are back in the front running. Would be a good signing for them, not a big name to disrupt Pavard but good enough to slot in for the odd game and can develop into a much better player in a few years.
 
GhastlyHun said:
https://www.zeit.de/sport/2020-09/borussia-dortmund-fans-nazis
(only german, sorry)
Oof. An in-depth and quite worrying article about the resurgence of Neonazi groups among Dortmund fans, and their increasing attempts to intimidate and silence left-wing, anti-fascist, and anti-racist fans and fan groups.
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While the club can be criticized for underestimating the problem when it first really came to light about ten years ago, they have since become active in banning groups and their fans from the stadium and organizing fan visits to Auschwitz to raise awareness. I think that's basically what you can expect of a football club. The problem is that the whole issue goes way beyond football. Dortmund is home to the West German nazi scene, their nest consists of basically three houses, the article estimates the core of their hooligan group at 10-20 people, the neo nazi parties don't poll particularly high (about 3% at the last election). It's not a lot of people, but they are very committed, organized and violent (as the article points out they are very active in the MMA scene). The club can ban their leaders and prevent them from displaying their colours openly, but what happens outside the stadium (as in a couple of skinheads visiting people who are politically active at home or having a "friendly" chat with people who are displaying political messages that aren't to their liking) isn't something that a football club is equipped to deal with.
 
I didn't post this to critizise BVB in any way, I think they have done well regarding the issue. The whole thing is just another indication of the still ongoing spread of far right influence through German society, and that's very disconcerting.
 
GhastlyHun said:
I didn't post this to critizise BVB in any way, I think they have done well regarding the issue. The whole thing is just another indication of the still ongoing spread of far right influence through German society, and that's very disconcerting.
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I didn't take it as such, but it really bothers me when issues like these are framed as football issues (like the article did), when the perpetrators aren't just stupid hooligans, but a organized, violent and highly radicalized underground movement, that wants to attack our society as a whole.
 
2ndTouch said:
So, what's the general take here on who'll be relegated this season? Still have to log in my candidates for a prediction game. Köln? For sure. I haven't seen anything from Bielefeld or Stuttgart last season. How good are their squads actually?
For now I'm going with Köln and Bielefeld on 17 and 18, and one of Mainz/Bremen/Union/VfB/Schalke finishing on 16. So many choices this season.. :lol:
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Bielefeld and Bremen + Mainz, Schalke and maybe Stuttgart fighting to avoid 16.

Bremen were imo really really bad last season and need a major turnaround to survive; their cup game wasn't encouraging. I don't understand why kohfeldt get so much praise
 
Gnabry is another De bruyne....

Quite amazing how Chelsea and Arsenal managed to don't see their potential
 
Bayern 1-0 up already. After Schalke had one great chance they then bloody score on the first chance they got. Gnabry is class.
 
How did this guy fail at Arsenal and flopped in the Premier League?! :confused:
He has been supreme for Bayern Munich. Another one of Arsene Wenger's best finds and what if talent but at least Wenger can claim that he actually played for Arsenal. :lol:
I looked up his stats. He only played 18 games for Arsenal, scoring just 1 goal and 3 games for West Brom. In the Premier League, he only played for Arsenal 1 game in his first season, 9 games in his second season, 0 in his third season and then loaned out to West Brom where he didn't even play a single game in the PL. It's like as though he pretends to be horribly shit in England then become world-class when he returns home. :lol: what a strange player. Immediately in his debut season for Werder Bremen, he made 27 appearances and scored 11 goals. Can a resident Arsenal fan shed some light on what exactly went wrong with him? Was he not given a chance in the first team? Injuries?
 
Btw, we have a few new shirt numbers: Gnabry 7, Kimmich 6, Zirkzee 14.

Lewa scores a pen, 3-0. It's like these guys are still chasing the treble :lol:
 
This is total domination really. Could be 10-0 here if Bayern keep pushing all game.
I would not bet against them winning it all again. Such a machine.
Stupidly they improved the biggest rival they got in Liverpool.
 
That is one of the more comical penalties, to be honest. Poor lad stumbled over himself and then brought Lewandowski down. Pure slapstick. :)
 
Jesus, 3-0 after 30 min and it could easily been 4 or 5 goals as well. The gap in quality is so big it kills the excitement
 
Paul_Scholes18 said:
Such a massive difference in class. Bayern is just toying with the league they have.
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To be honest, they did not just toy with bundesliga teams this year. Barcelona, Chelsea and Spurs should know. ;)
But Gnabry is a beast. With Kimmich in the midfield you actually do not miss Thiago at all.
 
How to get a free kick 101: Wait until the arm is high and then run into it like a moron...
 
Andre Kagawa said:
Bundesliga is such a dead league.
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Well, there are probably only four or five teams (Pool, City, PSG, Real) on earth that can put up somewhat of a challenge against Bayern in this form tbh.

Schalke being atrocious this year (not a single league win for 20 games in a row or so, if I remember correctly) doesn't help either.
 
Andre Kagawa said:
Bundesliga is such a dead league.
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It is the most dead one from the top 5 ones. In the other you at least got quality that could take over Juventus or PSG.
In Germany they sell it all to Bayern as soon as they get any good.
Although Dortmund is a bit better now. Although Bayern has turned up another level too.
 
Paul_Scholes18 said:
It is the most dead one from the top 5 ones. In the other you at least got quality that could take over Juventus or PSG.
In Germany they sell it all to Bayern as soon as they get any good.
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Nah Farmers Ligue 1 is equally worse.
 
Paul_Scholes18 said:
It is the most dead one from the top 5 ones. In the other you at least got quality that could take over Juventus or PSG.
In Germany they sell it all to Bayern as soon as they get any good.
Although Dortmund is a bit better now. Although Bayern has turned up another level too.
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You seem to spend half your time on the Caf in here posting about this farmer's league
 
Piratesoup said:
You seem to spend half your time on the Caf in here posting about this farmer's league
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PL? I still enjoy Bundesliga, but it is a one man league just like the French league.
Mainly cause the top sides are great I should say. They have the two best sides in europe at the moment.
 
Paul_Scholes18 said:
It is the most dead one from the top 5 ones. In the other you at least got quality that could take over Juventus or PSG.
In Germany they sell it all to Bayern as soon as they get any good.
Although Dortmund is a bit better now. Although Bayern has turned up another level too.
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When was the last time they bought an already top-class player from a direct rival?

Btw: What a combination right there. Looked like prime Barca.
 
Kimmich passing on the first half was glorious! And Goretzkas runs into the box as well were great.

4 now. Sane again missing a chance but Gnabry cleans up.
 
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