Yeah, that's all possible. But I am saying that it's not too big a risk to take and certainly not as clear cut a decision some are making it out to be. Let's say Spurs do get that fourth place spot and they do tumble out of the group stages. Well, he can just leave then. He'll be 25. Right now, Bale knows the water's warm out there, but he also knows that he's shit hot because of his stunning season in the league with Spurs so why not stay just a year and avoid running the risk of a transitional period at another club.
Because what's he got to achieve with Spurs? Winning anything but a domestic cup is not a possibility and even those seem unlikely. You suggest he stays at Spurs to avoid a transitional period at a big club; but why would he want to avoid that? Better get that transitional period out of the way now than feck around for another year or two at a club with no prospects only to face the same transitional period further down the line instead. He's achieved all he can at Spurs, he's become one of these world's best players and now it's time for him to move upwards. Bale could spend two more seasons at Spurs with the aim of potentially experiencing being knocked out of the CL group stages during 2014/15 - but where's the attraction in that?