Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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For today:
Villarreal to win
Famalicão to win
Small punt @ Under 2.5 at Malmo match
Small punt ACCA BTTS Malmo - IFK Norrkoping + Inter to win + Man Utd -1 @3.58
 
Spiersey said:
On under 3.25 in NYC v Union tomorrow. Unders has been good in 90% of the opening weekend of games across the world so far. Orlando game that is on right now has been terrible as expected. 30 degrees also so won't be played at a high tempo for 90 minutes. Over 3.25 is a really really high goal line for a closely matched game, would need to be a very open game for that to be the fair line and I can't see that being the case after such a long lay off.

Did a fun acca of under 3.5 in all the remaining round 1 games at 80/1, won't win but it's definitely value. The goal lines are all the same as they would be for a pre covid MLS game. They don't account for the rustiness, slower tempo etc.
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Acca lost annoyingly. Was value in every game so far still.

Hopefully under 3.5 in La Houston wins tonight.
 
André Dominguez said:
For today:
Villarreal to win
Famalicão to win
Small punt @ Under 2.5 at Malmo match
Small punt ACCA BTTS Malmo - IFK Norrkoping + Inter to win + Man Utd -1 @3.58
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2/4. Not bad overall but it could had been better if Villarreal won. But a positive day nonetheless.
 
Small punts:
BTTS Chelski @2.21
Acca Chelski ht/ft + Atlanta -2 + Portimonense to win @3.96
DNB Tondela @2.17

Regular punt:
Benfica -1 Vitória @1.98 Benfica has been in a poor shape, but Guimarães players and manager are not in good terms.
 
André Dominguez said:
Small punts:
BTTS Chelski @2.21
Acca Chelski ht/ft + Atlanta -2 + Portimonense to win @3.96
DNB Tondela @2.17

Regular punt:
Benfica -1 Vitória @1.98 Benfica has been in a poor shape, but Guimarães players and manager are not in good terms.
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Benfica's odd to win is too good. What's happening to you guys?
 
UNITED ACADEMY said:
Benfica's odd to win is too good. What's happening to you guys?
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Two main reasons:
1- The players felt the manager didn't support them and lost confidence on him.
2 -The board said that due to Coronavirus problems, the title winning bonus would probably not be paid, and you can't keep donkeys running without carrots on a string.

But for this game I'm confident because Guimarães is on an internal war after the manager publicly trashed the entire squad on a leaked video couple of weeks ago which was surprising because they are having a rebuild season and things are going well overall. Ivo Vieira is a very good manager and he puts his teams playing very good football, but unfortunately you also need to defend your group to show leadership and ultimately he failed to do that.
 
André Dominguez said:
Two main reasons:
1- The players felt the manager didn't support them and lost confidence on him.
2 -The board said that due to Coronavirus problems, the title winning bonus would probably not be paid, and you can't keep donkeys running without carrots on a string.

But for this game I'm confident because Guimarães is on an internal war after the manager publicly trashed the entire squad on a leaked video couple of weeks ago which was surprising because they are having a rebuild season and things are going well overall. Ivo Vieira is a very good manager and he puts his teams playing very good football, but unfortunately you also need to defend your group to show leadership and ultimately he failed to do that.
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This be could important information that bookies don't even know. I'll give it a go on Benfica here.

Edit: Just checked Benfica forum, they are the opposite of you. They don't look confident :lol:
 
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André Dominguez said:
Two main reasons:
1- The players felt the manager didn't support them and lost confidence on him.
2 -The board said that due to Coronavirus problems, the title winning bonus would probably not be paid, and you can't keep donkeys running without carrots on a string.

But for this game I'm confident because Guimarães is on an internal war after the manager publicly trashed the entire squad on a leaked video couple of weeks ago which was surprising because they are having a rebuild season and things are going well overall. Ivo Vieira is a very good manager and he puts his teams playing very good football, but unfortunately you also need to defend your group to show leadership and ultimately he failed to do that.
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Thanks. You got this spot on. However they almost blew it with 1-1 in 84th min like their last game :lol:
 
André Dominguez said:
Small punts:
BTTS Chelski @2.21
Acca Chelski ht/ft + Atlanta -2 + Portimonense to win @3.96
DNB Tondela @2.17

Regular punt:
Benfica -1 Vitória @1.98 Benfica has been in a poor shape, but Guimarães players and manager are not in good terms.
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A very decent night. My regular punt went in and I got my ACCA right.
 
Small Punts:
Newcastle DC @2.15
Arsenal DC @1.92
Verona +1 @2.15
Sassuolo+1 @2.20

Regular punts:
Jesus to score @1.91 (if he starts)
Braga -1.5 @1.81
Bodo/Glimt-1 & Molde -1 @2.84

Edit:
Added a smaller punt:
Panathinaikos @2.30
 
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I think Sassuolo @ 2.25 DC is half decent. Not really betting atm but I like those odds the way both teams are playing.
 
Any filthy arbers about here? You can get a free 10% roi on the hole in one market on the Memorial golf this weekend. 6/5 for both yes and no available across different bookies.
 
shaky said:
Any filthy arbers about here? You can get a free 10% roi on the hole in one market on the Memorial golf this weekend. 6/5 for both yes and no available across different bookies.
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I usually do arbing in live markets at European basketball matches. Will check if that arb is available on PT betting houses.
 
I haven't really done any betting since the restart but I've updated my database and remembered the discussion we had on here regarding the affect of empty stadiums on home bias. Now we have some numbers.

Average expected home advantage (based on demargininalised Pinnacle closing odds):
Before the break: 0.32 goals
After the break: 0.14 goals

This is from a sample of 62 EPL games since the restart so it might be off but looks like estimates of it being cut in half weren't far off. I'll do the other leagues later.
 
Lost the Braga -1 bet but I don't regret it. It was a one way game and Belenenses got an extremely lucky draw out of the blue. Braga could had won 4 - 1 if they had managed to score half of the chances they missed.
 
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