Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Ole90+3 said:
:lol: They must have scored as soon as you staked. Nice. Nah value in over 1.5?
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Yeah basically, very annoying. Was planning £5k stake in total but didn't get near it, needed a few more price rises.

No value o1.5, boca just playing for the win now. River need a goal now to win league.
 
Spiersey said:
Yeah basically, very annoying. Was planning £5k stake in total but didn't get near it, needed a few more price rises.

No value o1.5, boca just playing for the win now. River need a goal now to win league.
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Oh shit. Thought you had already placed the bet when you posted. I was the same. Was about to put down a double of o1.5 + Adesanya (in UFC tonight) but market froze up.
 
Ole90+3 said:
Oh shit. Thought you had already placed the bet when you posted. I was the same. Was about to put down a double of o1.5 + Adesanya (in UFC tonight) but market froze up.
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I had some on but only 1/5th of stake, was just planning on doing more once it hit 1.8, 85, 9 etc. Good scenes anyway in the end, Boca won the league, River were terrible final 20 when needing a goal. Maradona relegated though :(
 
Spiersey said:
I had some on but only 1/5th of stake, was just planning on doing more once it hit 1.8, 85, 9 etc. Good scenes anyway in the end, Boca won the league, River were terrible final 20 when needing a goal. Maradona relegated though :(
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Glad you at least made money from that. Good pick and foresight as usual.
 
On Wolves dnb @1.85 v Olympiakos in Europa. Greece just banned fans from sporting events an hour ago. Arsenal were 0 asians away, was a nice bet, deserved the win overall. Wolves similar level to Arsenal for me. Olympiakos are a huge home bias side, great fans etc. It's a huge loss for them, think evens is fair for Wolves win. Meeting tomorrow with Uefa to confirm it but can't see it being overturned. Worst case scenario can cash out.
 
Spiersey said:
On Wolves dnb @1.85 v Olympiakos in Europa. Greece just banned fans from sporting events an hour ago. Arsenal were 0 asians away, was a nice bet, deserved the win overall. Wolves similar level to Arsenal for me. Olympiakos are a huge home bias side, great fans etc. It's a huge loss for them, think evens is fair for Wolves win. Meeting tomorrow with Uefa to confirm it but can't see it being overturned. Worst case scenario can cash out.
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Will be more of these appearing over the next week or two. Will be pretty clear value in most cases but. Could be a race to get good prices though. If anyone sees any news about closed doors games and isn't sure if it is factored into prices then, Check what time the news came out, find the game on https://www.oddsportal.com/ and check if there has been a significant odds drop from the time of when the news came out until now, and also try and check any comparable games (for what the prices were there), Arsenal a nice easy comparison in this case.
 
For what it's worth, Germany's Minister of Health officially recommended to cancel all events with more than 1000 participants today. League and clubs are debating it and games behind closed doors are going to happen soon.
 
Oh Rory.. Ended up joint 5th and I ended up with a fraction of my original stake as reward. Seems to happen a lot to him on the last 2 days doesn't it?
 
Leixões - Farense: DNB Farense @2.18 This is a complicated away match, because Leixões usually uses a low block defense that frustrates a lot of opponents, but Farense needs to keep gathering points in order to achieve promotion, cause if they loose they will just keep 5 points margin.

small punt at Krasnodar - CSKA Moscow: Krasnodar 1Q @2.15. CSKA is the major favorite, but Krasnodar is quite a decent team that might have a strong start in order to keep themselves in the game.
 
muller said:
Oh Rory.. Ended up joint 5th and I ended up with a fraction of my original stake as reward. Seems to happen a lot to him on the last 2 days doesn't it?
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The bookie I went considered it as a win, so I must have been lucky with the terms and conditions.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
For what it's worth, Germany's Minister of Health officially recommended to cancel all events with more than 1000 participants today. League and clubs are debating it and games behind closed doors are going to happen soon.
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Dortmund v Schalke is the first game to be affected (was announced last night). No odds movement so far.
 
muller said:
Oh Rory.. Ended up joint 5th and I ended up with a fraction of my original stake as reward. Seems to happen a lot to him on the last 2 days doesn't it?
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Yeah, he was briefly 1st on the last day but just didn't handle the wind. Held on at the end to finish strongly and nick the tie so we at least got some return. Think I'll be on him again next week if the odds stay the right side of 2.5. Edit - Players next week so a better field, though not THAT much better. Odds much higher so definitely think value.
 
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Danny Roberts said:
Yeah, he was briefly 1st on the last day but just didn't handle the wind. Held on at the end to finish strongly and nick the tie so we at least got some return. Think I'll be on him again next week if the odds stay the right side of 2.5.
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Looked like a solid pick, cheers for that. Just a bit of a crumble yesterday.

I got on a boosted odd for United to win 2-0 yesterday (or 3-0 or 2-1) at 9.5's - so yesterday was a good day for me betting wise, purely on that 1 result!
 
Dortmund PSG confirmed to be behind closed doors. Think Dortmund Draw no bet at 3.4 and double chance at 2.25 look value
 
Spiersey said:
Will be more of these appearing over the next week or two. Will be pretty clear value in most cases but. Could be a race to get good prices though. If anyone sees any news about closed doors games and isn't sure if it is factored into prices then, Check what time the news came out, find the game on https://www.oddsportal.com/ and check if there has been a significant odds drop from the time of when the news came out until now, and also try and check any comparable games (for what the prices were there), Arsenal a nice easy comparison in this case.
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I was thinking about this earlier. How much data/experience do you have on how closed doors/no fans affects the outcome of a match? Intuitively you'd guess it would negate home advantage somewhat and I'd also suspect make less goals more likely without the adrenaline and energy a cheering crowd can imbue, but I was curious how much this is actually supported by past examples.
 
Ayush_reddevil said:
Dortmund PSG confirmed to be behind closed doors. Think Dortmund Draw no bet at 3.4 and double chance at 2.25 look value
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This is factored in now, Dortmund were +1 asian earlier and are now +0.5. Was golfing so missed confirmation so don’t have anything on.
 
BobbyManc said:
I was thinking about this earlier. How much data/experience do you have on how closed doors/no fans affects the outcome of a match? Intuitively you'd guess it would negate home advantage somewhat and I'd also suspect make less goals more likely without the adrenaline and energy a cheering crowd can imbue, but I was curious how much this is actually supported by past examples.
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I’ve no data on it, it’ll vary from team to team. Some teams have bigger home bias’s than others for various reasons, pitch, fans, travel so it’s hard to pinpoint a specific value for it. In the case of Olympiakos it is going to have a bigger effect than say if Wolves were at home with no fans, as their fans are more hostile and loud. Home advantage still exists of course but it’s probably closer to being a neutral venue (than a normal home game) in terms of advantage I’d say.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Dortmund v Schalke is the first game to be affected (was announced last night). No odds movement so far.
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Don't think it's official yet is it? Seems nailed on though. Any thoughts on fair odds for that game? I want to bet +1.5 as assume it's value. Schalke were +0.25 at home so with no crowd I'm guessing +1 is around fair? They were +0.5 at home to Leipzig which puts me off a bit.
 
Spiersey said:
I’ve no data on it, it’ll vary from team to team. Some teams have bigger home bias’s than others for various reasons, pitch, fans, travel so it’s hard to pinpoint a specific value for it. In the case of Olympiakos it is going to have a bigger effect than say if Wolves were at home with no fans, as their fans are more hostile and loud. Home advantage still exists of course but it’s probably closer to being a neutral venue (than a normal home game) in terms of advantage I’d say.
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Yeah presumed I was being optimistic assuming there would be any data available on it. Cheers.
 
Spiersey said:
Don't think it's official yet is it? Seems nailed on though. Any thoughts on fair odds for that game? I want to bet +1.5 as assume it's value. Schalke were +0.25 at home so with no crowd I'm guessing +1 is around fair? They were +0.5 at home to Leipzig which puts me off a bit.
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Official confirmation tomorrow apparently but seems inevitable. Schalke 1.5 is probably okay if we expect odds to drop after the announcement. They really are not very good though. Their metrics are terrible and they are currently rated -0.15 goals vs the league on a neutral pitch which is much lower than at the time of the reverse fixture so markets have caught up. I've got -1.5/1.5 fair at 2.15/1.87. This is just what my Excel sheet tells me based off current market ratings, not factoring in any unusual circumstances.

Edit: A line move of 0.5 goals is a bit optimistic though, isn't it? Home advantage has further diminished (due to VAR I guess) and is around 0.25 goals in the major leagues now. Dortmund's bias (maybe surprisingly) isn't deemed higher than the league average based on closing lines this season. So I guess +1.25 would be fair?
 
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Still ten days away but by the same token I'm on Leipzig -1 away to Mainz. Should be -1.25 anyway but this is another one that is very likely to be played behind closed doors. Mainz is close to the regions of Germany that are heavily affected and the league boss has just announced that any games with spectators are "highly unlikely" in the coming weeks.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Official confirmation tomorrow apparently but seems inevitable. Schalke 1.5 is probably okay if we expect odds to drop after the announcement. They really are not very good though. Their metrics are terrible and they are currently rated -0.15 goals vs the league on a neutral pitch which is much lower than at the time of the reverse fixture so markets have caught up. I've got -1.5/1.5 fair at 2.15/1.87. This is just what my Excel sheet tells me based off current market ratings, not factoring in any unusual circumstances.

Edit: A line move of 0.5 goals is a bit optimistic though, isn't it? Home advantage has further diminished (due to VAR I guess) and is around 0.25 goals in the major leagues now. Dortmund's bias (maybe surprisingly) isn't deemed higher than the league average based on closing lines this season. So I guess +1.25 would be fair?
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You'll know better than me on this for sure, I had line +1 to +1.25, Schalke +0.25 at home, then assuming +1.5 was correct with fans etc. Don't follow Bundesliga properly so no real opinion on it. Was just quick estimate. I'd have thought Dortmund would have a decent home bias so probably just over accounting for it.
 
Spiersey said:
You'll know better than me on this for sure, I had line +1 to +1.25, Schalke +0.25 at home, then assuming +1.5 was correct with fans etc. Don't follow Bundesliga properly so no real opinion on it. Was just quick estimate. I'd have thought Dortmund would have a decent home bias so probably just over accounting for it.
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Little bit surprised by that myself as they've been thrashing teams left, right and centre at home this season. Another good recent comparison would be Frankfurt (Schalke's level, slightly above probably) who closed +1.25.
 
On Yangon Win tomorrow in AFC @2.2. Think 1.7ish is fair. Yangon are the only Myanmar side that don't fix in this comp, they're a good side. Watched their games so far, had a great 2-2 draw v Ho Chi who are very strong. Ho Chi started great but Yangon better side after that. Beat Lao 3-2, was deserved (despite Lao conceding the 3rd on purpose). Hougang are much weaker this season than last, lost their best player. Plazibat the only threat for them nowadays. Hougang beat Lao 3-1, but Lao were the much better team, should have been 2/3-0 Lao but Hougang scored 2 complete freak screamers () and then Lao fixed to concede a 3rd again. Fair score was probably 2-0 Lao. Ho Chi completely dominated Hougang, they were 3-0 up and cruising, took their foot off and it went back to 3-2.

Nice comparison last year with Yangon v Tampines. Yangon were 1.7 to win at home, was probably too short though (lost 3-1, but they played really poorly). Tampines are a decent bit better than the Hougang side this season, think 1.7/8 is fair for win
 
Danny Roberts said:
Yeah, he was briefly 1st on the last day but just didn't handle the wind. Held on at the end to finish strongly and nick the tie so we at least got some return. Think I'll be on him again next week if the odds stay the right side of 2.5. Edit - Players next week so a better field, though not THAT much better. Odds much higher so definitely think value.
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I can't bring myself to bet on him, he crumbles way too often. And his odds are never value imo. He's a weird af player.
 
One Night Only said:
I can't bring myself to bet on him, he crumbles way too often. And his odds are never value imo. He's a weird af player.
[/QUOTE
One Night Only said:
I can't bring myself to bet on him, he crumbles way too often. And his odds are never value imo. He's a weird af player.
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World number one, unbelievable consistency over last 12 months. Hasn’t won enough but top 5 is doing me just fine for now.
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Leicester - Aston Villa
Villa (Asian handicap +1) @ 2,10
I see some value here because Leicester have been pretty awful lately, especially without Vardy.

Villa have a Good record against them too.
If Leicester win here it wont be more than a goal in my opinion.
 
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Knux said:
Leicester - Aston Villa
Villa (Asian handicap +1) @ 2,10
I see some value here because Leicester have been pretty awful lately, especially without Vardy.

Villa have a Good record against them too.
If Leicester win here it wont be more than a goal in my opinion.
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Vardy coming on in HT to save the day for Leicester. Second goal was never a penalty.
But Villa is shit and I hope they get relegated.
 
Fancy (today)

2.10 Brewin’upastorm 11/2
4.10 Benie Des Dieux 4/7
5.30 Springfield Fox 7/1

Banker double

4.10 Benie Des Dieux 4/7 ( today )
3.30 Paisley Park 4/7 ( Thursday)

Nap

1.30 Goshen 3/1 ( Friday )
 
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André Dominguez said:
Leixões - Farense: DNB Farense @2.18 This is a complicated away match, because Leixões usually uses a low block defense that frustrates a lot of opponents, but Farense needs to keep gathering points in order to achieve promotion, cause if they loose they will just keep 5 points margin.

small punt at Krasnodar - CSKA Moscow: Krasnodar 1Q @2.15. CSKA is the major favorite, but Krasnodar is quite a decent team that might have a strong start in order to keep themselves in the game.
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Small profit, but better than nothing. The Leixoes Farense game was returned because it ended 1-1, but Krasnodar won the 1Q 19-13.
 
RB Leipzig HT/FT @3.08: pretty confident it will happen
Lietkabelis - Zaragoza: Lietkableis 1Q @2.15: the Lithuanians need to recover the point gap, but in the end of the day they are playing against an ACB team.
Bonn - AEK Athens: I'm gonna risk a punt on Bonn+3.5 @1.96: The greeks are better, but I think the german team can have a word to say.
 
On Lyon u19s +0.75 @1.8 later today. Lyon are an odd team, on paper they are incredible but in reality they don't play near as well as they should so only on small. I had Atalanta win down as being a bet at 1.8 initially but Cherki and Gouri both going to be playing for Lyon. Cherki been lazy at u19s this season unfortunately but think he has a point to prove today as he's been sent back to the reserves from first team. Game will behind closed doors so negates home advantage a bit. Atalanta been in poor form recently in Primavera, think it'll be a pretty close game. If it was the first game of the competition and based purely on squads I'd have Lyon probably 1.8 to win. Lyon +0.25 fair line for me.
 
Port Vale Devil said:
Hills paying 7 places in the Supreme. Dutch the entire field for guaranteed profits.
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Danny Roberts said:
Might not make you rich but I'm getting cousin 33 to take advantage of this:

https://racingbettingoffers.com/betway-racing-offer-odds-boost/

You can only bet a quid but should give an easy 40 in free bets for the rest of the week...fingers crossed!
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shaky said:
This is the bank builder for the week. Hoping for a few big priced places.
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Thanks all. Currently waiting for betway to authenticate my account. As for paying 7 paces with William Hill - would you need to put down quite a good sum of money to make it worthwhile?
 
Marty1968 said:
Explain for the horse racing novice! :lol:
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It's a 16 horse race, and you get 1/5 the odds for a place if you bet each way. Normally they'd only pay place returns for 1st, 2nd and 3rd in this type of race but they are paying 7 places on this race, so betting each way on every single horse will guarantee that you not only back the winner, but you also get paid out at 1/5 the odds on 6 of the remaining 15 horses too.
 
Spiersey said:
On Lyon u19s +0.75 @1.8 later today. Lyon are an odd team, on paper they are incredible but in reality they don't play near as well as they should so only on small. I had Atalanta win down as being a bet at 1.8 initially but Cherki and Gouri both going to be playing for Lyon. Cherki been lazy at u19s this season unfortunately but think he has a point to prove today as he's been sent back to the reserves from first team. Game will behind closed doors so negates home advantage a bit. Atalanta been in poor form recently in Primavera, think it'll be a pretty close game. If it was the first game of the competition and based purely on squads I'd have Lyon probably 1.8 to win. Lyon +0.25 fair line for me.
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Can't get +0.75 anywhere for that price. Any value in +0.5 for 1.8?
 
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