Blackburn & Over 1.5 goals @ 2.30
Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020
- Thread starter Levo
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Fontwell 2.25 Thursday,Dostal Phil 6/4, should win
I can’t believe Newcastle are being quoted at 9/1 against United. Both sides currently sit on the same number of points. Ok they may get beat, but that’s a cracking price.
Small addition to the results vs performances discussion we had a few pages back:
Tomorrow we have run-away league leaders Wycombe away to Portsmouth (10th) in League One. Based on their records so far, you'd expect Wycombe to be priced no higher than 2.50 (6/4). But they are 4.50+ (7/2) and Portsmouth are massive favourites.
There is an even more extreme example in the National League with leaders Barrow hosting Fylde who are sitting in 20th. If their league positions were an accurate representation of their respective team strengths, Barrow would be roughly 1.50 (1/2). Yet they are trading at 2.50+. If it weren't for the factored-in home advantage, they'd be underdogs(!) which means Fylde are rated the better side.
Again, these are quite extreme examples and I think the market has maybe over-adjusted, but it goes to show how important it is to look beyond results to assess team strengths and find value bets. Fylde must be the unluckiest team in England btw.
Tomorrow we have run-away league leaders Wycombe away to Portsmouth (10th) in League One. Based on their records so far, you'd expect Wycombe to be priced no higher than 2.50 (6/4). But they are 4.50+ (7/2) and Portsmouth are massive favourites.
There is an even more extreme example in the National League with leaders Barrow hosting Fylde who are sitting in 20th. If their league positions were an accurate representation of their respective team strengths, Barrow would be roughly 1.50 (1/2). Yet they are trading at 2.50+. If it weren't for the factored-in home advantage, they'd be underdogs(!) which means Fylde are rated the better side.
Again, these are quite extreme examples and I think the market has maybe over-adjusted, but it goes to show how important it is to look beyond results to assess team strengths and find value bets. Fylde must be the unluckiest team in England btw.
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I got back into playing silly accumulators on player markets and was 3/5 last night (Tucker needed one more points, rebound or assist, Davis needed 3 more points) and 5/6 the night before (Vucevic needed three more rebounds for double double, having had it 25/29 times before that game). Should stick to singles but I really have no patience.
Today trying to get back into football with Tottenham, Chelsea and Everton +0.5 treble at 2.65...
Today trying to get back into football with Tottenham, Chelsea and Everton +0.5 treble at 2.65...
Boxing Day:
| Ipswich v Gillingham, Under 2.25 @ 1.99 |
| Charlton v Bristol City, Bristol City -0.25 @ 2.12 |
| Rochdale v Fleetwood, Rochdale 0.5 @ 2.07 |
| Oxford v Lincoln, Lincoln 0.5 @ 2.26 |
| Portsmouth v Wycombe, Wycombe 0.5 @ 2.05 |
| Sunderland v Bolton, Under 2.75 @ 2.01 |
| Leyton v Colchester, Over 2.5 @ 2.12 |
| Exeter v Newport, Over 2.5 @ 2.21 |
| Man United v Newcastle, Under 2.75 @ 2 |
| Leeds v Preston, Over 3.0 @ 2.32 |
| Barrow v Fylde, Barrow -0.25 @ 2.13 |
| Stockport v Halifax, Stockport -0.25 @ 2.21 |
I had some BetBuilders on the Spurs v Brighton game:
Alli to score anytime
Gross to be booked
Sanchez to be booked
Under 6 cards
Over 23.5 free kicks
Over 11.5 goal kicks
@351.0
Sissoko got booked in the 84th min with the 6th card to kill this one
Kane to score anytime
Kane to be booked
Winks to be booked
Under 7 cards
Over 7 corners
Over 21.5 free kicks
@151.00
Just needed Kane to be booked for this one
Kane to score anytime
Alli to score anytime
Burn to be booked
Sissoko to be booked
Under 7 cards
Over 23.5 free kicks
@251.00
Sissoko killed the first one but he came good to save this one
Bit gutted they never all came off but that is pretty standard for me to keep missing out by one or two legs. Will do a few more for the United and Leicester games later when teams are out.
Alli to score anytime
Gross to be booked
Sanchez to be booked
Under 6 cards
Over 23.5 free kicks
Over 11.5 goal kicks
@351.0
Sissoko got booked in the 84th min with the 6th card to kill this one
Kane to score anytime
Kane to be booked
Winks to be booked
Under 7 cards
Over 7 corners
Over 21.5 free kicks
@151.00
Just needed Kane to be booked for this one
Kane to score anytime
Alli to score anytime
Burn to be booked
Sissoko to be booked
Under 7 cards
Over 23.5 free kicks
@251.00
Sissoko killed the first one but he came good to save this one
Bit gutted they never all came off but that is pretty standard for me to keep missing out by one or two legs. Will do a few more for the United and Leicester games later when teams are out.
Just need a Lacazette goal and Xhaka booking in the Arsenal game. Lacazette will probably get subbed for Pepe soon though.
For the United v Newcastle game:
Greenwood to score anytime
Schar to be booked
Pereira to be booked (bit risky as he's probably gonna get subbed for Pogba)
Over 18.5 free kicks
Under 5 goals
Under 8 cards
@81.00
Typical. Finished on 5 goals and 19 free kicks. Couldn't get any closer to winning.
Rashford to score anytime
Carroll to score anytime
Shaw to be booked
Manquillo to be booked
Over 7 corners
Under 8 cards
@351.00
Carroll never came on so this should be voided
Martial to score anytime
Greenwood to score anytime
Shaw to be booked
Joelinton to be booked
Under 7 cards
Over 11.5 goal kicks
@201.00
Just needed the two bookings for this one
Greenwood to score anytime
Schar to be booked
Pereira to be booked (bit risky as he's probably gonna get subbed for Pogba)
Over 18.5 free kicks
Under 5 goals
Under 8 cards
@81.00
Typical. Finished on 5 goals and 19 free kicks. Couldn't get any closer to winning.
Rashford to score anytime
Carroll to score anytime
Shaw to be booked
Manquillo to be booked
Over 7 corners
Under 8 cards
@351.00
Carroll never came on so this should be voided
Martial to score anytime
Greenwood to score anytime
Shaw to be booked
Joelinton to be booked
Under 7 cards
Over 11.5 goal kicks
@201.00
Just needed the two bookings for this one
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How is the cash out looking for the first one? The ones in bold have come through, but the under 5 goals looks like it will be a loser.
I didn't for the life of me think there'd be 5 goals in this match?
No one did to be fair
No corners in the second half FFS!
What did you have?
For the Leicester v Liverpool game:
Vardy to score anytime
Salah to score anytime
Soyuncu to be booked
Ndidi to be booked
Under 8 cards
Over 14.5 goal kicks
@101.00
Mane to score anytime
Salah to score anytime
Pereira to be booked
Mane to be booked
Over 7 corners
Over 20.5 free kicks
@126.00
Vardy to score anytime
Firmino to score anytime
Praet to be booked
Gomez to be booked
Over 7 corners
Under 7 cards
@201.00
Plus a few more but can't be arsed to list them all.
Vardy to score anytime
Salah to score anytime
Soyuncu to be booked
Ndidi to be booked
Under 8 cards
Over 14.5 goal kicks
@101.00
Mane to score anytime
Salah to score anytime
Pereira to be booked
Mane to be booked
Over 7 corners
Over 20.5 free kicks
@126.00
Vardy to score anytime
Firmino to score anytime
Praet to be booked
Gomez to be booked
Over 7 corners
Under 7 cards
@201.00
Plus a few more but can't be arsed to list them all.
Fecking typical. Aguero's first game back so have him to score and he has to come off for Ederson's red.
That’s a tough L to take.
To get a penalty 10 minutes later that he probably would have taken as well is like just rubbing salt in the wound.
Saric - points, assists and rebounds - over 19.5 @ 2.00
Middleton - points - over 20.5 @ 2.10
Embiid - points, assists and rebounds - over 37.5 @ 1.75
Isaac - points, assists and rebounds - over 19.5 @ 1.83
Brown - points, assists and rebounds - over 28.5 @ 1.91
Flat stake 200 PLN.
Middleton - points - over 20.5 @ 2.10
Embiid - points, assists and rebounds - over 37.5 @ 1.75
Isaac - points, assists and rebounds - over 19.5 @ 1.83
Brown - points, assists and rebounds - over 28.5 @ 1.91
Flat stake 200 PLN.
On Real Potosi win tomorrow 9/5 and Dnb 2.1.
Is a risk of them resting but they have a small squad so don’t have much of a choice. Potosi have lost their best players but the game is at 4000m and away are sea level. It is priced off of motivation, sport boys need a win to avoid relegation. However, Potosi were 1/5 v Destroyers, 1/4 v Guabira (two other sea level teams). The odds are way way too far in favour of Sport boys in my opinion. Motivation is everything at the end of the season however I don’t think it outweighs a 4000m altitude difference. Will take a great performance from Destroyers to get a win at 4000m. Or for Potosi to not care at all. With motivation (and assuming potosi play a strong side) id make 1.8ish fair for Potosi win.
Is a risk of them resting but they have a small squad so don’t have much of a choice. Potosi have lost their best players but the game is at 4000m and away are sea level. It is priced off of motivation, sport boys need a win to avoid relegation. However, Potosi were 1/5 v Destroyers, 1/4 v Guabira (two other sea level teams). The odds are way way too far in favour of Sport boys in my opinion. Motivation is everything at the end of the season however I don’t think it outweighs a 4000m altitude difference. Will take a great performance from Destroyers to get a win at 4000m. Or for Potosi to not care at all. With motivation (and assuming potosi play a strong side) id make 1.8ish fair for Potosi win.
Sounds good to me. I've been to Potosi and walking is pretty hard work!
I took Saric as a single, there's a guy on Reddit sportsbook who does the player props too, always look to see if you have any the same.
Thanks
Got 3/5, the largest odds in there as well. Embiid missed out by 1, very unlucky. Isaac not even close. Still +20% on the night which is awesome.
PL bets for small stakes:
| Newcastle v Everton, Newcastle 0.25 @2 |
| Southampton v Crystal Palace, Crystal Palace 0.25 @2.25 |
| Watford v Aston Villa, Aston Villa 0.5 @2.1 |
| Watford v Aston Villa, under 2.75 @2.08 |
| Norwich v Tottenham, Norwich 0.75 @1.99 |
| Norwich v Tottenham, over 3 @2 |
| West Ham v Leicester, Leicester -0.5 @1.98 |
| West Ham v Leicester, over 3 @2.01 |
Chester, Jorge Wilstermann, The Strongest, Al Ahly Cairo, Hapoel Be'er Sheva, Inverness CT, Dumbarton, Norwich or Tottenham, Burnley/Man Utd >1.5 @10.38
Surely Leicester to beat West ham @1.90 is ridiculously good value? West ham are absolute dog shite.
I was literally just looking at how many teams have put in solid performances over the last two games so far. Only Everton looking good so far. I wouldn't put it past Norwich and West Ham to get something today, even if just draws. Both scrapping for their lives and having to turn it on at home. Spurs were lucky against Brighton and Leicester were soundly thumped albeit against the Dippers.
When somebody starts a sentence with 'Surely', you just know what's going to happen.
No Vardy either, rested. Still think Leicester have too much for West Ham.
I'm on West Ham +0.5 and DNB. Think they should be favourites at home. Leicester have the biggest drop off in quality in the league from their Starting XI to their squad players. 9 changes, its a very poor lineup for them. West Ham rotated also but think the players coming in are of a decent standard. Fabianski is a big plus also.
VAR is fecking killing me.
Lots of bets tonight:
Beverley - assists - over 3.5 @ 2.75
Mitchell - assists - over 4.5 @ 2.35
Prince - points, rebounds & assists - over 21.5 @ 1.80
Hardaway Jr - points, rebounds & assists - over 19.5 @ 1.88
Butler - points, rebounds & assists - over 31.5 @ 1.85
Simmons - points, rebounds & assists - over 28.5 @ 1.91
Ingram - points, rebounds & assists - over 33.5 @ 1.82
Brown - points, rebounds & assists - over 29.5 @ 1.91
McCollum - threes - over 2.5 @ 1.78
Love - points, rebounds & assists - over 30.5 @ 1.94
Jrue Holiday - points, rebounds & assists - over 29.5 @ 1.84
Sacramento to beat Phoenix @ 1.79
Beverley - assists - over 3.5 @ 2.75
Mitchell - assists - over 4.5 @ 2.35
Prince - points, rebounds & assists - over 21.5 @ 1.80
Hardaway Jr - points, rebounds & assists - over 19.5 @ 1.88
Butler - points, rebounds & assists - over 31.5 @ 1.85
Simmons - points, rebounds & assists - over 28.5 @ 1.91
Ingram - points, rebounds & assists - over 33.5 @ 1.82
Brown - points, rebounds & assists - over 29.5 @ 1.91
McCollum - threes - over 2.5 @ 1.78
Love - points, rebounds & assists - over 30.5 @ 1.94
Jrue Holiday - points, rebounds & assists - over 29.5 @ 1.84
Sacramento to beat Phoenix @ 1.79
7/10 in player markets, 0/1 in team markets. 1 bet (Love) good as he did not play.
Beverley did not have a single assist, CJ missed out by one three and Brown had a total of 23 (so not really that close). The rest was fairly comfortable.
Leicester's missed penalty cost me £945 in a correct score 4-fold. Also just needed one more goal in the Burnley v United game @21.00. Had 6 other accas & BetBuilders that were out by one result.
Sideshow Luiz to be booked Vs Chelsea @ 3.25
| Arsenal v Chelsea, Chelsea -0.25 @2.08 |
| Liverpool v Wolves, Wolves 1.5 @2.01 |
| Arsenal v Chelsea, over 3 @1.97 |
| Birmingham v Leeds, Birmingham 0.75 @2.06 |
| Birmingham v Leeds, under 2.5 @1.92 |
| Fulham v Stoke, over 2.5 @2 |
| Huddersfield v Blackburn, over 2.25 @2.04 |
| Millwall v Brentford, Millwall 0.25 @2.16 |
| Nottingham v Wigan, over 2.5 @2.14 |
| Preston v Reading, Reading 0.5 @2.06 |
| QPR v Hull, Hull 0 @2.16 |
| QPR v Hull, over 3 @1.96 |
| Sheffield Weds v Cardiff, over 2.5 @2.04 |
| Swansea v Barnsley, under 3 @1.97 |
| West Brom v Middlesbrough, over 3 @2.19 |
Winner. Was written in the stars tbh
Underestimated how poor West Ham are. At least their manager paid the price for it.
Feck it. I went BTTS > 2.5 then saw your post. Good shout.
Mine could still come in but the games gone very scrappy.
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