Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Spiersey said:
I don't think Pools price is overly attractive. Their away performances has been very poor (despite results) since around March. Their home performances are completely different, I'd much rather bet them -1.5/1.75 at home to United than -0.5 away.

This season is a lucky win away to Sheffield courtesy of a Henderson blunder, they were average that game, draw was probably fair. Similar performance against Chelsea, also think a draw would be fair. They weren't playing well against Burnley until Trent scored from a cross. Were fortunate against Southampton also, wasn't a great performance and should have went 2-2 with a late sitter. Back to last season, they just managed to beat Newcastle. Was the Cardiff game where the guy missed a sitter then had a blunder to gift pool a goal. Game before that was the Southampton game where I think Pool equaliser was offside when they were playing badly? Then the Fulham game before was the Rico error late on for a pen. Can't remember the games prior to that. Essentially their away results are vastly superior to the actual performances that they are putting in. Pretty sure their previous two visits to Old Trafford came during bad form for United as well didn't they? Have a vague memory of people expecting Pool to win easily. Last season they were terrible at OT despite United having 4 injuries in the first 30 and Rashford struggling to run the entire game.

I guess you could say that Pool's results in spite of performances are a sign of how good they are but if you take their betting lines at kick off for these games then they Won v Chelsea, burnley, half loss v Sheffield United, half loss v Southampton, loss v Newcastle, refund v Cardiff, win v Saints, loss v Fulham. They've not outperformed their handicap by more than half a goal in any of these games bar Burnley.

This all being said, I wouldn't be betting United either. Price is probably about fair for me.
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I agree with this but they've not been all that great at home either have they?
 
Danny Roberts said:
I agree with this but they've not been all that great at home either have they?
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Not as good as last season but they're dominant in home games, even when not playing that great the goals feel like they're coming in my opinion. Not a big fan of Xg but Norwich was 2.23 -0.84, Arsenal 2.79 to 0.99, Newcastle 2.93 - 0.29 -, Leicester was 3.75 to 0.10. Pretty convincing gulfs at home in terms of chances. If the weekends game was at Anfield I'd be pretty confident that Pool would score at least 3.
 
The way I see it, they just have great finishers in Mané and Salah, which is why they've won these type of games. I also think it's fair priced atm.

They've also been a bit lucky - in defence mainly, but it goes both ways. Adrian has given away chances, which Alisson (who's back) wouldn't give away. Van Dijk and the defence have underperformed a bit defensively I think, which has lead to chances they wouldn't have given away last season.
 
Spiersey said:
Not as good as last season but they're dominant in home games, even when not playing that great the goals feel like they're coming in my opinion. Not a big fan of Xg but Norwich was 2.23 -0.84, Arsenal 2.79 to 0.99, Newcastle 2.93 - 0.29 -, Leicester was 3.75 to 0.10. Pretty convincing gulfs at home in terms of chances. If the weekends game was at Anfield I'd be pretty confident that Pool would score at least 3.
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Aye, any easy way / any good website to check past games like this in terms of xG?
 
Small punt for fun on over 6.5 on Austria U17 game :D

edit: 6-0. So close, and yet...
 
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I am a person who makes my living through Gambling so here is a bit of free advice...

Do not bet on Football , full stop , it is , aside from maybe Golf where the odds are sometimes 10-1 the field , consistently the most difficult area in which to make money over a long term period

I know , now , there are going to be loads of Posters and regular Formites , telling me how they have won this and won that and never lose but I would question their honesty on this matter unless I was privy to their Bookmakers Betting Statements !
 
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andy dufresne said:
I am a person who makes my living through Gambling so here is a bit of free advice...

Do not bet on Football , full stop , it is , aside from maybe Golf where the odds are sometimes 10-1 the field , consistently the most difficult area in which to make money over a long term period

I know , now , there are going to be loads of Posters and regular Formites , telling me how they have won this and won that and never lose but I would question their honesty on this matter unless I was privy to their Bookmakers Betting Statements !
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With a 98% payout on the EPL, thats obviously a fallacious argument. There are big loosers, but also consistent winners, and they will be distributed nice and predictably along a Gauss-curve.
 
It has been a good week in terms of profit percentage, but not a good day yesterday:

Santos HT failed, but they could had do it. They actually played a bit better on the 1st half, despite the fact they scored twice on the second.

CSKA AH-6 was easy

Real Madrid lost badly at Zalgiris home. I know Zalgiris is a very decent team (I actually sympathize with them), but they were doing terribly this season start, but Real Madrid rarely looses, bare in ind loosing so badly.

At Lyon match: The budgets were different, but they made a disastrous game. They have a team better than the result shows
 
andy dufresne said:
I am a person who makes my living through Gambling so here is a bit of free advice...

Do not bet on Football , full stop , it is , aside from maybe Golf where the odds are sometimes 10-1 the field , consistently the most difficult area in which to make money over a long term period

I know , now , there are going to be loads of Posters and regular Formites , telling me how they have won this and won that and never lose but I would question their honesty on this matter unless I was privy to their Bookmakers Betting Statements !
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I’m a full time professional gambler making a good living on football alone so this statement isn’t true.

Youre correct about golf though. What do you bet on?
 
andy dufresne said:
I am a person who makes my living through Gambling so here is a bit of free advice...

Do not bet on Football , full stop , it is , aside from maybe Golf where the odds are sometimes 10-1 the field , consistently the most difficult area in which to make money over a long term period

I know , now , there are going to be loads of Posters and regular Formites , telling me how they have won this and won that and never lose but I would question their honesty on this matter unless I was privy to their Bookmakers Betting Statements !
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Trolling?
 
John - I love your use of words and the English Language - That said , whether you think my argument is fallacious or not , I can say what I see and I have spoken to thousands upon thousands of folk over the Years and I see very very few making regular Profits from Footballing

Anyway , I shall leave it at that and talk about Manchester United , which lets face it , is the main reason we are here in the first place
 
andy dufresne said:
John - I love your use of words and the English Language - That said , whether you think my argument is fallacious or not , I can say what I see and I have spoken to thousands upon thousands of folk over the Years and I see very very few making regular Profits from Footballing

Anyway , I shall leave it at that and talk about Manchester United , which lets face it , is the main reason we are here in the first place
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Isn't this more to do with average Joe's betting mad accumulators weekly? The guys here who bet football can make a profit because they treat it seriously.

Alot of the guys are putting money on in the hope of a longshot coming in or just for the excitement it adds to games.
 
Spiersey said:
I’m a full time professional gambler making a good living on football alone so this statement isn’t true.

Youre correct about golf though. What do you bet on?
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For real? I'd be really interested in knowing what you make on average per year (or month) to compare it to my 9-5 office job.
 
andy dufresne said:
I am a person who makes my living through Gambling so here is a bit of free advice...

Do not bet on Football , full stop , it is , aside from maybe Golf where the odds are sometimes 10-1 the field , consistently the most difficult area in which to make money over a long term period

I know , now , there are going to be loads of Posters and regular Formites , telling me how they have won this and won that and never lose but I would question their honesty on this matter unless I was privy to their Bookmakers Betting Statements !
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I would agree, I’ve never won decent money with football betting, would rather bet a horse, but that’s just me, if you can make money in football fair enough.
 
VorZakone said:
For real? I'd be really interested in knowing what you make on average per year (or month) to compare it to my 9-5 office job.
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Yeah genuinely. This year I’m averaging around £18k profit a month. It has been a very good year though and is my best year already (only been full time for a couple though). Over the year I’ve probably averaged about 90 hours a week though, so it is a lot more time consuming that a standard 9-5.

These numbers are small compared to some people I know, they’re up over a Mil this year comfortably. Then conversely I also know people who are full time who just aim to make £15k a year to cover bills.
 
Spiersey said:
Yeah genuinely. This year I’m averaging around £18k profit a month. It has been a very good year though and is my best year already (only been full time for a couple though). Over the year I’ve probably averaged about 90 hours a week though, so it is a lot more time consuming that a standard 9-5.

These numbers are small compared to some people I know, they’re up over a Mil this year comfortably. Then conversely I also know people who are full time who just aim to make £15k a year to cover bills.
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Get yer tips in here then :D,
Only joking, that’s brilliant pal, all the very best to you.

If you don’t mind me asking what do you gamble on? I take it quite big stakes aswell?

just read your previous post - football
 
Spiersey said:
Yeah genuinely. This year I’m averaging around £18k profit a month. It has been a very good year though and is my best year already (only been full time for a couple though). Over the year I’ve probably averaged about 90 hours a week though, so it is a lot more time consuming that a standard 9-5.

These numbers are small compared to some people I know, they’re up over a Mil this year comfortably. Then conversely I also know people who are full time who just aim to make £15k a year to cover bills.
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Holy shit. :lol: Thanks for the information, much appreciated. I fully realise that it's likely to be more time-consuming though. Like the poster above asked, what do you gamble on?
 
MC89 said:
Get yer tips in here then :D,
Only joking, that’s brilliant pal, all the very best to you.

If you don’t mind me asking what do you gamble on? I take it quite big stakes aswell?

just read your previous post - football
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Haha, I post some stuff in here, mainly early price stuff as it’s the most value for people in here to follow.

I’m pretty much 99% football, I gamble with other pros who follow other sports so occasionally I’ll follow some bets from them on other sports.
With regards to football I focus on obscure stuff. League wise I’ll bet on a few women’s leagues, some youth leagues and then Bolivian, ecuador, saudi, Chinese, Austrian Lower Tiers. I follow a lot of international stuff as well, Concacaf league, World Cup asian qualifiers, oceanic stuff as well and South American. I focus on youth international tournaments as well, u17 World Cup starts next week so I’ve spent the last week or two prepping that (doing squads, rewatching qualifier games, finding warm up results and highlights, speaking to local journalists etc). I also follow stuff like Uefa Youth League, Copa Libertadores. Then on top of this, I’ll watch loads of other games in a day as well as following other random stuff that is traded as well such as Peru Reserve league. Basically I follow most stuff that isn’t mainstream.

My average stakes are usually 4 figures, but on some bets I can only get 3/400 on so it does vary.
 
Chancing a few outsiders and old favourites at Ascot tomorrow.

2:10. Withhold ew @12/1.. 3 places. Big step up in class but he just might be capable of a big run. Mekong ew @28/1 is another one I like but on the enhanced place markets. Around 14/1 for 5 places is decent.

2:45. Sparkle Roll @33/1.. 3 places. The outsider of the Gosden runners. Another for the enhanced place market. Anything around 16/1 for 6 places is value.

3:20 Century Dream @14/1.. 4 places. Likes the ground and the track. Ran well here last year under similar conditions. Also Raising Sands out of pure loyalty. Currently 66/1 for 4 places so another for the enhanced places. Huge step up in class but is part owned by the legend, Hugh Taylor. Anything around 25/1 for 7/8 places looks worth a bet.
 
Spiersey - I will gladly lay all your Football Bets between now and the rest of the Season in the English and Scottish Leagues - just say the word !

As for the Peruvian Reserve League - I will give that one a miss , thank you very much indeed.

I am guessing as a Chelsea Fan you are quite happy with the progress you are making under Frank? I always thought we (United) should have signed Willian back in 2017 when we , foolishly took Nemanja Matic - it was a mystery to me then and it still rankles somewhat even now
 
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Went for
Rodri @ 5.00
Fernandinho @ 3.60 (just writing this I now feel foolish, the unbookable)
Mendy @ 4.50

To be booked, any of them brings a profit.
 
Should have stuck to the rugby which i know nothing about. Backed England on a nice handicap and May first tryscorer just because I was watching thge game. Then lost all my football bets, football being a sport I was under the illusion I knew about. Oh well.
 
andy dufresne said:
Spiersey - I will gladly lay all your Football Bets between now and the rest of the Season in the English and Scottish Leagues - just say the word !
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Take it you are joking? you only have to read his posts on here, and have a minimal degree of understanding of the mechanics of betting, to realise Spiersy is for real.
 
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Yesterday’s results in EPL /championship were extraordinary. I lost couple of bets on Swansea and Bournemouth.
 
Noticed Rashford next goal after 15 mins was 7/1 on Sky. 1-0 United was 7/1 and Mané to score a goal assisted by TAA was 16/1. I went for two of them. Guess which.
 
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