Football Betting Thread 2017/2018

Utd heap said:
The analogy does not work, do you know how bookies formulate a book?

4/5 on Roma to score both halves was about right. Not 'value'. Do you know what value means?
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I would personally classify anything that is higher odds than I would expect as value. Using this example, 4/5 looked a tad generous to me therefore value.
 
Carlsen19 said:
I would personally classify anything that is higher odds than I would expect as value. Using this example, 4/5 looked a tad generous to me therefore value.
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Fair enough. Not the kind of bet i'd go near at odds on.

Glad to see lads on here made cash out of it, better us than the bookies (even if i work for one ha)
 
Hannover shafted me for £180, they were winning as well bloody shithouses.
 
Need Real and Sevilla to claim my third accumulator in a week. About £100 from £10 this time.
 
Italian treble in. Now waiting on sevilla for a 10 fold.... didn't fancy em too much at the start but gonna see it through!
 
Won £100 from £10

Utd -1
City
Chelsea
Everton
Juve
Lazio BTTS
Milan
Dortmund

Waited for the line-ups in the Cup games and was confident enough. City did their best to chuck it though.
 
Just need Real Madrid and Seville to put the bloody ball in the net, they're doing everything but.
 
Come on Real you bloody useless geeks.
 
BobbyManc said:
United over 2.5 goals
AS Trencin v Nitra - Over 8 corners
BTTS - Lazio v Napoli

Pays a bit under 2/1.
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Lucky escape here, I was close to putting Madrid over 1.5 goals in but thankfully decided it was far too short to be worth adding however likely it seemed with Ronaldo returning.

Carlsen19 said:
I would personally classify anything that is higher odds than I would expect as value. Using this example, 4/5 looked a tad generous to me therefore value.
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Yeah that's how I'd use the term as well. Was a good spot to be fair, I mean in mainstream leagues you're never going to find true value but certainly you'll find some bets like that one with more reasonable odds than you'd anticipate.
 
Small stake on Montreal +1 AH at just below evens. Normally I'd never touch Montreal and especially away to Toronto but Toronto are without Giovinco and Altidore while Vasquez is only fit enough for the bench. For context, Toronto have scored 63 goals this season, and those three have 35 goals and 21 assists between them. They have nothing to play for really other than pride, very comfortable in top place and Montreal should be more fired up for this 401 derby.
 
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BobbyManc said:
Small stake on Montreal +1 AH at just below evens. Normally I'd never touch Montreal and especially away to Toronto but Toronto are without Giovinco and Altidore while Vasquez is only fit enough for the bench. For context, Toronto have scored 63 goals this season, and those three have 35 goals and 21 assists between them. They have nothing to play for really other than pride, very comfortable in top place and Montreal should be more fired up for this 401 derby.
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Looking good!
 
One Night Only said:
Looking good!
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I know :D just checked it then before I was about to go to bed, it was 1-0 then as I clicked on it they scored a second! Wish I'd have been a bit braver now, normally I'd have at least put something on Montreal DNB but just stuck with the +1 AH and +1.5 in another treble.
 
theralyst said:
Just saw the score. Glad I stayed away from betting yesterday.
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I had 8/9 but Real ruined it. Atalanta, Juventus, Sevilla, Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea, United and Milan all won comfortably (well Sevilla struggled but still won). To be fair of all teams I put money on last night Real would have been one of the 3 I would have been most certain about (along with Chelsea and United).
 
They are having a shocker, especially at home. Very strange. Given how crazy things are in Spain no doubt the white hankies will be out before long despite ZZ being a legend and having achieved what he has already as a manager.
 
Last night I did a 32/1 7 Fold and it was let down due to a fairly late equaliser.

Juve
Everton
Sevilla
Deportivo
Man City
Atletico
Genoa

I was offered £100 cash but was waiting for a Sevilla goal as the last kick off to send it through the roof but Genoa couldn't hang on.
 
Trying my luck on Tromsø at home vs Odd @2.10 tonight. This is an extremly important game for Tromsø as they are fighting relegation. They've improved quite a bit in the last few games at home, where they also usually are very difficult to face. They are up against a Odd-side who's been very disappointing this year, especially away from home, and who's got two (Rashani and Samuelsen) of their best players suspended for this game. @4.15 for Tromsø to score 3 or more seems decent as well.
 
Utd heap said:
The analogy does not work, do you know how bookies formulate a book?

4/5 on Roma to score both halves was about right. Not 'value'. Do you know what value means?
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I know how bookies formulate lines and I also know that odds fluctuate.

For example I was able to get Mayweather to win by TKO @ odds of 2.1 when the betting market opened for the fight. By the time the market closed for the fight, the odds were 1.7.

I was able to beat the closer by a considerable margin; representing great value.

The bookies aren't always right. You know that there are thousands of people in the world who make their living from gambling? You think they are just lucky? Of course they're not. They perform extensive research in order to identify value in the odds. Just like bookmakers do.
 
I had a large bet on Mayweather at 1/4. No doubt that was value. The price was massively inflated by a load of Irish and UFC fans who were blind to the facts.
 
unitedbhoy said:
The bookies aren't always right. You know that there are thousands of people in the world who make their living from gambling? You think they are just lucky? Of course they're not. They perform extensive research in order to identify value in the odds. Just like bookmakers do.
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Yes, it's what I do.
 
unitedbhoy said:
In that case, I'd have thought you more than anyone would appreciate that you can find value in the betting market.
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I don't think we are talking about the same thing now, and i'll wrap it up so we don't drag this on.

I agree, value exists - I took exemption to that market ever representing value at odds on.
 
Motherwell play Aberdeen again on Sunday. Last nights cup quarter final finished Motherwell 3 Aberdeen 0. Lightning might not strike twice but Motherwell draw no bet @2/1 looks decent to me.
 
Utd heap said:
I don't think we are talking about the same thing now, and i'll wrap it up so we don't drag this on.

I agree, value exists - I took exemption to that market ever representing value at odds on.
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I guess it's hard to say either way on a market like that, what with Benevento being newly promoted. Seeing how often it hit last season and so far in this would be a start i suppose, but once you start factoring in different quality of opposition, squad changes (Salah leaving etc) then it all gets a bit murky. I'd certainly struggle to price up a market like that.
 
What do you have for this weekend guys?
Will take a look tonight if there is anything with value :P

Good luck all!
 
Couple of Chinese Super League games kicking off shortly for anyone who's blagged a day off and is lay on the couch watching Rick and Morty. Guangzhou are usually good for a couple of away goals but price is only 4/9 pre game whilst btts opens @4/6. If no goal is scored after 15 minutes or so that's one to consider. Both previous h2hs here saw it land. SIPG are away from home and they also like a goal or 3. Btts 2nd half is a market I like for them but this will depend on how competitive the 1st half is. Price is around 7/4 on that one.
 
Considering I hit some batshit crazy accumulators recently, I decided to go mad this time with a 19-fold which includes:

Today:

Qarabag v Sumgayit
Nice or draw v Angers
Bayern v Wolfsburg
Porto v Portimonense

Tomorrow:

Roma v Udinese
Everton or draw v Bournemouth
Man City v Crystal Palace
Leeds or draw v Ipswich
Copenhagen v Silkeborg
Spartak Moscow v Anzhi
Dinamo Kyiv v Veres
Feyenoord v NAC Breda
Lyon v Dijon
Juventus v Torino
Benfica v Pacos de Ferreira

Sunday:

Ajax v Vitesse
Inter v Genoa
Qabala v Neftchi Baku

I got 33/1 after taxes.
 
Sarni said:
Considering I hit some batshit crazy accumulators recently, I decided to go mad this time with a 19-fold which includes:

Today:

Qarabag v Sumgayit
Nice or draw v Angers
Bayern v Wolfsburg
Porto v Portimonense

Tomorrow:

Roma v Udinese
Everton or draw v Bournemouth
Man City v Crystal Palace
Leeds or draw v Ipswich
Copenhagen v Silkeborg
Spartak Moscow v Anzhi
Dinamo Kyiv v Veres
Feyenoord v NAC Breda
Lyon v Dijon
Juventus v Torino
Benfica v Pacos de Ferreira

Sunday:

Ajax v Vitesse
Inter v Genoa
Qabala v Neftchi Baku

I got 33/1 after taxes.
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actually like the look of this....although Ajax have been terrible this season and Inter let me down in mid week so they can get lost! Fancy Nice tonight.
 
Anyone else fancy Monaco tonight away to Lille? Sold de Preville without replacing him and they've struggled all season under Bielsa. Also the Dutch second division tonight, as usual a small stake on BTTS is all games and keep an eye on them all in play, with Oss v Almere probably the pick of the bunch for goals.
 
What is wrong with Nice? Losing 2-1 at home to Angers, they were even 2-0 down before Balotelli pulled one back.
 
Sarni said:
What is wrong with Nice? Losing 2-1 at home to Angers, they were even 2-0 down before Balotelli pulled one back.
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They're useless cnuts. I had a bet similar to yours at the start of the season and only needed Nice to avoid defeat at home to Troyes and of course they ended up losing.

Hopefully they'll equalize in the second half and not screw it up before the weekend has even started.
 
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