This fight is being sold as Mosley's offense versus Floyd's defense, but it's not that simple, mainly because they are both excellent in both areas. Here's where they differ.
There's two types of defense, don't get hit, and don't get hurt. The first is (obviously) inclusive of the second, but if you want to fight in close, or commit to throwing serious leather, it's the second you want to have, and Shane does, in bucketloads.
It's not that he has a superhuman chin, good though it is, but because he rolls a lot of punches, blocks a lot of punches, sees everything coming. You don't come in, land and get out with any frequency against Shane because he's happy throwing with you. He doesn't need to deal with the incoming punch then counter, he can do both in one motion.
Floyd, on the other hand, doesn't. He's no James Toney in there, he doesn't often roll and counter. He hits you coming in, or he slides and hits you while going out, but he doesn't like to exchange punches while he's potentially vulnerable.
Offensively, they are chalk and cheese as well. Floyd has beautiful timing, and incredible accuracy, but that's because he picks and chooses his spots well. he may not have that luxury against Shane, who feints, throws combinations and has feet as fast as his hands. Floyd also loses much of his fluency when he punches in combination, which is why he won't do it early until he has his opponent under control. Will he ever have Mosley contained enough to consider opening up? Doubtful.
Shane's timing and accuracy doesn't look as good, but the aggressors rarely does. Watch a highlight reel if you have any doubt about his ability to land a well timed punch, counter or going forward. He is very effective though. He lands shots against everyone, slows everyone down. He finds gaps and makes openings. He looks a little messy on occasion, but that is the price to pay for being speculative. I think that was the biggest contribution of Richardson in the Margarito fight. normally Shane takes one to land one and counts on his phenomenal ability to make his shots count more down the line. I expected this to be more the case with Margarito then normal, given the opportunity for Shane to stay close and bang away, but he showed patience and didn't let anything cheap get by.
Here's how it will go:
Shane will box with Mayweather, feinting in the centre of the ring, throwing short hard shots if Floyd takes the bait, or moving in and throwing combinations if he flinches. He will have success cutting off the ring and landing on Mayweather in spurts, but I don't expect him to pursue this strategy aggressively for the first few rounds. The plan is to keep Floyd controlled. Floyd will either try and get some respect early, or pretty much just give up the rounds to time Shane. Shane will bully him a little, rough him up a touch, but he won't just let Floyd play counter puncher. That's important. He must be patient, but forceful, because winning 4 of the first 6 rounds will put him in an almost unbeatable position.
Floyd has trouble with fast hands and fast feet. Shane needs to mix up his attack enough to make sure floyd is still having trouble by halfway. If he brought his A game out early and tried to put some leather on Mosley, he's probably in hospital already, but if he played safe Floyd will need to start getting some shots in by now. This is when the Margarito Shane comes out.
When Floyd starts leaping in with straight rights and shoving, or left hooks and putting his hands on Shane to smother him, Shane needs to dig in and rough him up. When Floyd steps up, Shane will increase his pressure, only with more strength and violence. Floyd may well win rounds here, he will land right hands, and they will be clean and beautiful looking, but he will have to pay the price. Body work will be starting to pay off and Floyd will be fighting at an uncomfortable pace and not getting the subdued Mosley he's praying for.
By then it's all over.
Mosley will get him eventually. Floyd's hands will get a little lower, his legs a little stiffer and Shane will be cutting the ring off a little easier than before, so Floyd will start backing off in a straight line a little more. He may get caught coming in onto a left hook, but I think he'll get caught stepping backwards right on the end of an overhand right. His legs will twitch, there'll be a hint of jelly, and bang.....
Shane will hit him with the same hook that put Mayorga out. Nobody gets jelly legs against Shane Mosley and makes it.
Then the gloating begins.
