I’d rather have Gary Pallister 1v1 than fecking Welbeck
Finishing isn't a thing
- Thread starter didz
- Start date
Guess I'm a sheep, baa.
On an on topic note, I think a lot of this thread is just people not starting with the same definition of finishing and that's causing confusion. Wittgenstein is giggling somewhere.
The same Welbeck who scored like 3858966 goals against us since he left?
Do you live in Yorkshire?
This never happened. Every time he scores against us I drink 13 pints and bash myself in the head with a hammer as it’s less painful than actually remembering it
The answer is both yes and no.
You will have players who will outperform their XG, indicating they are better than average finishers. You also will have situations where only a limited number of players in the world could pull off a goal (think the Ronaldo header in the champions league when he was at Juve or the Ibra bicycle kick goal vs. England).
I do not believe a "good finisher" will "guarantee you XX goals a season." Chances created are down to the team dynamics and how they play, not solely on the player's ability to finish.
You will have players who will outperform their XG, indicating they are better than average finishers. You also will have situations where only a limited number of players in the world could pull off a goal (think the Ronaldo header in the champions league when he was at Juve or the Ibra bicycle kick goal vs. England).
I do not believe a "good finisher" will "guarantee you XX goals a season." Chances created are down to the team dynamics and how they play, not solely on the player's ability to finish.
So we can’t call this a bad finish anymore can we, what is the right term using this threads “logic”.
Yep Darwin is arguably top 3 strikers in the world at getting into positions, and getting space to make a shot opportunity. If it all reverted back to the mean like this supposes, then he would surely have more than 20 goals in 68 league games? And wouldn't have been given up on as a starter by Liverpool.
Like halfway through last season when some people were trying to suggest that it would be better to have Havertz than Haaland, because Havertz is better from general play. When Arsenal would have multiple leagues by now if they had Haaland.
One of the worst players I ever saw in terms of technical abiliy, he couldn't pass, couldn't control the ball properly, and was a fecking Scouser, he had one skill, putting the ball in the net, (excpet ironiically against us) Ian Rush, he was a pure finisher because he was useless at anything else
Is this proven? That all strikers regardless of their skill level will revert to xG over enough time? Sounds wrong but it'd be interesting to know though. You could probably demonstrate this with a spreadsheet, fbref and an afternoon but it'd be a tedious bit of work.
So I can call football statophilic and be woke in doing so? You are completely ridiculous.
A good question at last. I honestly don't know. I think we could have a decent conversation from here.
Steady on there cowboy. I was explaining why people are saying it. Which you might have understood if you read the line ‘People are using woke in football as a tongue in cheek way of saying…’ I wasn’t accusing you of anything.
Again just so you understand and stop getting all defensive. It’s people being tongue in cheek and using it as like a ‘the kids these days with all these stats bloody woke the lot of them, in my day it was just tackles and fit birds on soccer am’. They don’t actually think it’s woke in the understood term of being socially progressive.
Just to reiterate this is an explanation.
I didn't really argue against it, just added that finishing ability is absolutely a factor in separating goalscorers, even if it isn't neccesarily the most important.
This was also part of the post I initially responded to, and something I still don't think actually tracks.
As per fbref:
Of the 30 players to hit double digits last season, 10 finished outside of the top 30 for total shots, 15 outside of the top 30 for shots per 90.
Within the top 10 goalscorers, only three were in the top 10 for shots per 90 (Haaland 3rd, Salah 5th and Palmer 10th). In fact, the 2nd, 7th and 9th ranked players for shots per 90 don't even feature in the top 30 goalscorers.
The ability to finish chances is obviously a difference maker, even if it's not the main or only one.
17/18 to 22/23 Messi: +29.1
17/18 to 23/24 Kane: +28.6
17/18 to 23/24 Lewandowski: +6.8
19/20 to 23/24 Darwin: -6.2
19/20 to 23/24 Haaland: +17.2
17/18 to 21/22 Cristiano: +3.4
17/18 to 23/24 Mbappé: +24
17/18 to 23/24 Lukaku: +14.9
17/18 to 23/24 Salah: +6.9
17/18 to 23/24 Son: +27.7
Rounding out the numbers, Messi averaged around 5 goals above average per season. Haaland around 3. Kane 4. Mbappé 3. Son 4. Lewandowski 1. Cristiano 1. Lukaku 2. Salah 1. Darwin is the only below average, at around 1 goal less per season
In reality most of those guys tend to finish above average with 1 or 2 below average seasons(Lukaku is the only one who is always above xG, though his best season was +4 and he's generally in the +1 range). Darwin is the exception, finishing below average in every season on record except for one exceptional season(guess which
)Btw, much smaller sample but Nico Jackson looks a lot like Darwin so far...
Me when I'm on SSRIs.
I thought it was just people referencing that Sean Dyche meme. Anyone I've seen/heard that's used that fecking annoying word when talking about football has just been referencing that.
That's how I define finishing, (I.e. finishing chances)
Finishing is a thing, it's the difference between Zirkzee and Kane.
Sparky was a great finisher but agree rush was better, maybe my bias against his teammate me forget about him. But he absolutely would be on the list.
Though it might be interesting to look at xG another way, expressing goals over or under xG as a percentage. It equals everyone out instead of looking at raw numbers and should show us how much of a thing finishing is when comparing frequent goalscorers to the average top-flight footballer and to each other.
I'm taking out penaties here rightly or wrongly. It could be argued that's a seperate skill.
All stats from understat, players' career stats from 2014/15 onwards from the big 5 leagues. League games only. Minimum 50 non-penalty goals since 14/15 for inclusion which maks it somewhat self-selecting as it should be skewed towards beter finishers if we assume they're more likely to stay in teams long enough to score 50 to begin with. I may have missed some players but I got loads.
This is a much more fun way to look at it, helps visualise the differences between them better. Give the same players 20 non-penalty xG in a single season which is really good, and this is best guess of how many they score based off their xG stats (rounded to the nearest goal):
28
Foden, De Bruyne
27
Son
26
Petersen, Hazard, Ilicic
25
Griezmann, Mahrez, Mertens, Stindl, Muriel, Gnabry
24
Joao Pedro (Cagliari), Aspas, Thauvin, Messi, Dybala
23
Bale, Chicharito, Fekir, Ibrahimovic, Mpabbe, Kane, Higuain, Germain, Coutinho
22
Haaland, Ayoze Perez, Kruse, Lacazette, El Shaarawy, Volland, Diego Costa, Martial, Icardi, Maxi Gomez, Alexis Sanchez, Alcacer
21
Luis Suarez, Schick, Ings, Milik, Stuani, Di Maria, Gerard Moreno, El-Nesyri, Ben Yedder, Pavoletti, Memphis, Immobile, Lukaku, Bacca, Vardy, Aguero, Fullkrug, Nkunku, Falcao, Giroud, Salah, Papu Gomez
20
Vlahovic, Mane, Sane, Ronaldo, Guirassy, Destro, Zaza, David, Raul Garcia, Martinez, Perisic, Rashford
19
Kramaric, Simeone, Benzema, Lewandowski, Jota, Watkins, Osimhen, Zapata, Morata, Cavani, Reus, Joselu, Aubameyang, Neymar, Plea, Sterling, Isak, Wood, Wilson
18
Havertz, Arnautovic, Firmino, Werner, Muller, Belotti, Delort
17
Weghorst, Antonio, Williams, Benteke
16
Insigne
15
Dzeko, Gabriel Jesus, Calvert-Lewin
Who'd have thought Ayoze Perez and Martial can compete with Haaland when it comes to finishing? Not me! Of course they're never going to get as many chances as Haaland and that's the big debate point - finishing vs getting into the position to finish.
Longer range goals from unlikely positions smacking xG out of sight for De Bruyne, Foden and Mahrez. It's a City theme even though people complain how they're boring including me.
I'm taking out penaties here rightly or wrongly. It could be argued that's a seperate skill.
All stats from understat, players' career stats from 2014/15 onwards from the big 5 leagues. League games only. Minimum 50 non-penalty goals since 14/15 for inclusion which maks it somewhat self-selecting as it should be skewed towards beter finishers if we assume they're more likely to stay in teams long enough to score 50 to begin with. I may have missed some players but I got loads.
Foden = 39.7% better than the average player at finishing
De Bruyne = 39.7%
Son = 36.6%
Petersen = 31.1%
Hazard = 29.5%
Ilicic = 27.5%
Griezmann = 24.9%
Mahrez = 24.6%
Mertens= 24.1%
Stindl = 21.7%
Muriel =21.6%
Gnabry = 21.2%
Joao Pedro = 19.4% (the Cagliari one)
Aspas = 18.4%
Thauvin = 18.4%
Messi = 17.9%
Dybala = 17.6%
Bale = 17.1%
Chicharito = 15.6%
Fekir = 14.5%
Ibrahimovic = 14.2%
Mbappe = 14.4%
Kane = 14%
Higuain = 13%
Germain = 12.8%
Coutinho = 12.6%
Haaland = 12.4%
Ayoze Perez =11.8%
Kruse = 11.4%
Lacazette = 11.1%
El Saarawy = 11%
Volland = 9.9%
Diego Costa = 9.9%
Martial = 9.8%
Icardi = 9.8%
Maxi Gomez = 8.5%
Alexis Sanchez = 8.3%
Alcacer = 8.1%
Luis Suarez = 7.4%
Schick = 7.2%
Ings = 6.9%
Milik = 6.9%
Stuani = 6.8%
Di Maria = 6.5%
Gerard Moreno = 6.5%
El-Nesyri = 6.1%
Ben Yedder = 6%
Pavoletti = 6%
Memphis - 5.9%
Immobile = 5.4%
Lukaku = 5.2%
Bacca = 5.1%
Vardy = 4.9%
Aguero = 4.3%
Fullkrug = 4.1%
Nkunku = 4%
Falcao = 3.8%
Giroud = 3%
Salah = 2.9%
Papu Gomez = 2.5%
Vlahovic = 2.2%
Mane = 2.1%
Sane = 1.6%
Ronaldo = 0.5%
Guirassy = 0%
Destro = 0%
Zaza = 0%
David = -0.4%
Raul Garcia = -0.8%
Martinez = -0.9%
Perisic = -1%
Rashford = -1.8%
Kramaric =-3.1%
Simeone = -3.4%
Benzema = -3.6%
Lewandowski = -4.5%
Jota = -4.9%
Watkins = -5.5%
Osimhen = -5.5%
Zapata = -5.6%
Morata = -5.7%
Cavani = -6.1%
Reus = -6.3%
Joselu =-6.4%
Aubameyang = -6.6%
Neymar = -6.6%
Plea = -6.7%
Sterling = -6.9%
Wodd = -7.2%
Isak = -7.2%
Wilson = -7.5%
Havertz = -8.2%
Arnautovic = -9.5%
Firmino = -9.4%
Werner = -9.6%
Muller =-9.8%
Belotti = -10.8%
Delort = -11.4%
Weghorst =-13.4%
Antonio = -13.7%
Williams = -14.1%
Benteke = -15.3%
Insigne = -18%
Dzeko = -22.8%
Gabriel Jesus = -26.7%
Calvert-Lewin = -27.5%
De Bruyne = 39.7%
Son = 36.6%
Petersen = 31.1%
Hazard = 29.5%
Ilicic = 27.5%
Griezmann = 24.9%
Mahrez = 24.6%
Mertens= 24.1%
Stindl = 21.7%
Muriel =21.6%
Gnabry = 21.2%
Joao Pedro = 19.4% (the Cagliari one)
Aspas = 18.4%
Thauvin = 18.4%
Messi = 17.9%
Dybala = 17.6%
Bale = 17.1%
Chicharito = 15.6%
Fekir = 14.5%
Ibrahimovic = 14.2%
Mbappe = 14.4%
Kane = 14%
Higuain = 13%
Germain = 12.8%
Coutinho = 12.6%
Haaland = 12.4%
Ayoze Perez =11.8%
Kruse = 11.4%
Lacazette = 11.1%
El Saarawy = 11%
Volland = 9.9%
Diego Costa = 9.9%
Martial = 9.8%
Icardi = 9.8%
Maxi Gomez = 8.5%
Alexis Sanchez = 8.3%
Alcacer = 8.1%
Luis Suarez = 7.4%
Schick = 7.2%
Ings = 6.9%
Milik = 6.9%
Stuani = 6.8%
Di Maria = 6.5%
Gerard Moreno = 6.5%
El-Nesyri = 6.1%
Ben Yedder = 6%
Pavoletti = 6%
Memphis - 5.9%
Immobile = 5.4%
Lukaku = 5.2%
Bacca = 5.1%
Vardy = 4.9%
Aguero = 4.3%
Fullkrug = 4.1%
Nkunku = 4%
Falcao = 3.8%
Giroud = 3%
Salah = 2.9%
Papu Gomez = 2.5%
Vlahovic = 2.2%
Mane = 2.1%
Sane = 1.6%
Ronaldo = 0.5%
Guirassy = 0%
Destro = 0%
Zaza = 0%
David = -0.4%
Raul Garcia = -0.8%
Martinez = -0.9%
Perisic = -1%
Rashford = -1.8%
Kramaric =-3.1%
Simeone = -3.4%
Benzema = -3.6%
Lewandowski = -4.5%
Jota = -4.9%
Watkins = -5.5%
Osimhen = -5.5%
Zapata = -5.6%
Morata = -5.7%
Cavani = -6.1%
Reus = -6.3%
Joselu =-6.4%
Aubameyang = -6.6%
Neymar = -6.6%
Plea = -6.7%
Sterling = -6.9%
Wodd = -7.2%
Isak = -7.2%
Wilson = -7.5%
Havertz = -8.2%
Arnautovic = -9.5%
Firmino = -9.4%
Werner = -9.6%
Muller =-9.8%
Belotti = -10.8%
Delort = -11.4%
Weghorst =-13.4%
Antonio = -13.7%
Williams = -14.1%
Benteke = -15.3%
Insigne = -18%
Dzeko = -22.8%
Gabriel Jesus = -26.7%
Calvert-Lewin = -27.5%
This is a much more fun way to look at it, helps visualise the differences between them better. Give the same players 20 non-penalty xG in a single season which is really good, and this is best guess of how many they score based off their xG stats (rounded to the nearest goal):
28
Foden, De Bruyne
27
Son
26
Petersen, Hazard, Ilicic
25
Griezmann, Mahrez, Mertens, Stindl, Muriel, Gnabry
24
Joao Pedro (Cagliari), Aspas, Thauvin, Messi, Dybala
23
Bale, Chicharito, Fekir, Ibrahimovic, Mpabbe, Kane, Higuain, Germain, Coutinho
22
Haaland, Ayoze Perez, Kruse, Lacazette, El Shaarawy, Volland, Diego Costa, Martial, Icardi, Maxi Gomez, Alexis Sanchez, Alcacer
21
Luis Suarez, Schick, Ings, Milik, Stuani, Di Maria, Gerard Moreno, El-Nesyri, Ben Yedder, Pavoletti, Memphis, Immobile, Lukaku, Bacca, Vardy, Aguero, Fullkrug, Nkunku, Falcao, Giroud, Salah, Papu Gomez
20
Vlahovic, Mane, Sane, Ronaldo, Guirassy, Destro, Zaza, David, Raul Garcia, Martinez, Perisic, Rashford
19
Kramaric, Simeone, Benzema, Lewandowski, Jota, Watkins, Osimhen, Zapata, Morata, Cavani, Reus, Joselu, Aubameyang, Neymar, Plea, Sterling, Isak, Wood, Wilson
18
Havertz, Arnautovic, Firmino, Werner, Muller, Belotti, Delort
17
Weghorst, Antonio, Williams, Benteke
16
Insigne
15
Dzeko, Gabriel Jesus, Calvert-Lewin
Who'd have thought Ayoze Perez and Martial can compete with Haaland when it comes to finishing? Not me! Of course they're never going to get as many chances as Haaland and that's the big debate point - finishing vs getting into the position to finish.
Longer range goals from unlikely positions smacking xG out of sight for De Bruyne, Foden and Mahrez. It's a City theme even though people complain how they're boring including me.
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Same (sort of) conversation in a podcast chat I was on two weeks ago.
Close enough
Fine fine I'll go watch another R9 YouTube compilation.. for the millionth time
Then you should have gotten the sheep reference from the location un the post I responded to
Wonderful post.
Is finishing still not a thing after last night?
Ben Shapiro thread.
This thread is just fundamentally misunderstanding what xG measures. Part of the reason that Haaland has such a massive xG in the first place is that he has an amazing finishing ability and is trusted that he can get a good shot without dwelling on the ball from a ridiculous amount of positions. Vast majority of players would need to either take much more time on the ball, giving defenders a lot more time to cover them and lower xG or just shoot at every opportunity and get crucified by fans, teammates and manager for wasting their buildup efforts.
There is no clear and useful distinction between movement and finishing that lets you measure one without the other.
There is no clear and useful distinction between movement and finishing that lets you measure one without the other.
xG is not calculated by player. If that’s what you’re suggesting.
I know it's not. I'm suggesting that a hypothetical Haaland without his technical finishing ability would get immidiately taken off the team if he tried to play the same way. Even though he would be able to farm xG quite well until that time (assuming that he would be able to get something resembling a shot with his strong foot even if every single one would be pathetic). And if he tried to adjust to be useful, he would need a lot more time on the ball which would lower his xG massively.
You’re making a meta argument against reality.
Pieter Zwart (the leading tactical journalist and nowadays head editor of the biggest football magazine VI) wrote an article about exactly this on his old blog Catenaccio.nl back in like 2016. It was called something like “how to tell a good striker” (but in Dutch) but it seems that the website doesn’t exist anymore. I’ll post a link if I can find an archived version
We've learned to read LuckyScout threads...an article in dutch will be easy.
I think his point is that you don't accumulate xG if you don't get a shot away. Haaland get's his shot away in spots others don't, so he accumulates more xG than playerswho need that extra touch or hasn't positioned them right for getting the shot away before the opportunity is gone.
Other players do get their shots in the same positions, that's exactly how xg is calculated.
He’s only had 20 shots this season.
He’s just really good at kicking the ball into the goal.
He plays for Man City, he gets more chances to shoot. Most of those chances have a high xG. He’s really good at shooting so often outperforms a standardised xG. He scores lots. That’s it.
Starting with a stat and working a reality around it, is for the birds.
That’s why I can understand what this term means. Nobody seems to know how to use it.
Oh god. Thanks for that