Fantasy Premier League 22/23

CassiusClaymore said:
Pickford? I think I'd rather just get Iversen and play Ward all season. Personally I think you'd be better off keeping the 2 keepers you have and find the funds from elsewhere. The trouble in your set up is you're giving yourself a benching headache every week with that front 8. Downgrading Bruno in 23 to free up funds for Nketiah makes more sense to me. I'd probably get a bench filler midfielder who will play in 25. Andreas and Bailey still the best picks here.
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Thanks for the feedback!
I have several thoughts on how to move forward, this was one of them. The Pickford pick is because of a possible new manager with ultra defensive approach bounce and some really nice fixtures for Everton from GW 24. Don't disagree with the Iverson road either, it's definitely an option.

I really want to keep Bruno, both because he's a great differential pick and his numbers since the restart is fantastic! ....and we still don't know if he's on penalties or not. Plan is to keep both Bruno and Rashford if possible.

Bruno and Rashford since the restart (GW17-GW21):

xGi/90 (Expected goal involvments per 90 minutes)

Bruno: 0,80 xGi/90 (0,2xG/90 + 0,60xA/90) Bruno has played every minute since the restart: 540 minutes
Rashford: 0,75 xGi/90 (0,69xG/90 + 0,06xA/90) Rashford has played 492 minutes since the restart.

Compared to the other midfield popular picks in the league:
Odegaard: 0,69 xGi/90 (0,23xG/90 + 0,46xA/90) has played 446 minutes since the restart
Saka: 0,55 xGi/90 (0,33xG/90 + 0,22xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Martinelli: 0,57 xGi/90 (0,21xG/90 + 0,36xA/90) has played 436 minutes since the restart
Mitoma: 0,58 xGi/90 (0,48xG/90 + 0,10xA/90) has played 440 minutes since the restart
March: 0,80 xGi/90 (0,38xG/90 + 0,42xA/90) has played 423 minutes since the restart, has never shown anything like this form in his and is contributed to as many goals the last 5 games as he did the last 3 seasons in total. So prob not sustainable.
KDB: 0,76 xGi/90 (0,11xG/90 + 0,65xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Mahrez: 0,93 xGi/90 (0,36xG/90 + 0,57xA/90) has played 474 minutes since the restart
Salah: 0,77 xGi/90 (0,40xG/90 + 0,37xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Almiron: 0,21 xGi/90 (0,12xG/90 + 0,09xA/90) has played 418 minutes since the restart
Bailey: 0,37 xGi/90 (0,32xG/90 + 0,05xA/90) has played 421 minutes since the restart
Andreas: 0,46 xGi/90 (0,19xG/90 + 0,27xA/90) has played 500 minutes since the restart

Both Rashford and Fernades are outperforming their xG these days, so...

G+xA/90 (Actual goalthreat per 90)

Bruno: 0,93 G+xA/90 (0,33G/90 + 0,60xA/90)
Rashford: 0,97 G+xA/90 (0,91G/90 + 0,06xA/90)

Haaland (1,24 G+xA/90), Nketiah (0,99 G+xA/90) and Kane (0,84 G+xA/90) seems like the obvious beta for the forward positions both short and mid term.
 
troylocker said:
Thanks for the feedback!
I have several thoughts on how to move forward, this was one of them. The Pickford pick is because of a possible new manager with ultra defensive approach bounce and some really nice fixtures for Everton from GW 24. Don't disagree with the Iverson road either, it's definitely an option.

I really want to keep Bruno, both because he's a great differential pick and his numbers since the restart is fantastic! ....and we still don't know if he's on penalties or not. Plan is to keep both Bruno and Rashford if possible.

Bruno and Rashford since the restart (GW17-GW21):

xGi/90 (Expected goal involvments per 90 minutes)

Bruno: 0,80 xGi/90 (0,2xG/90 + 0,60xA/90) Bruno has played every minute since the restart: 540 minutes
Rashford: 0,75 xGi/90 (0,69xG/90 + 0,06xA/90) Rashford has played 492 minutes since the restart.

Compared to the other midfield popular picks in the league:
Odegaard: 0,69 xGi/90 (0,23xG/90 + 0,46xA/90) has played 446 minutes since the restart
Saka: 0,55 xGi/90 (0,33xG/90 + 0,22xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Martinelli: 0,57 xGi/90 (0,21xG/90 + 0,36xA/90) has played 436 minutes since the restart
Mitoma: 0,58 xGi/90 (0,48xG/90 + 0,10xA/90) has played 440 minutes since the restart
March: 0,80 xGi/90 (0,38xG/90 + 0,42xA/90) has played 423 minutes since the restart, has never shown anything like this form in his and is contributed to as many goals the last 5 games as he did the last 3 seasons in total. So prob not sustainable.
KDB: 0,76 xGi/90 (0,11xG/90 + 0,65xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Mahrez: 0,93 xGi/90 (0,36xG/90 + 0,57xA/90) has played 474 minutes since the restart
Salah: 0,77 xGi/90 (0,40xG/90 + 0,37xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Almiron: 0,21 xGi/90 (0,12xG/90 + 0,09xA/90) has played 418 minutes since the restart
Bailey: 0,37 xGi/90 (0,32xG/90 + 0,05xA/90) has played 421 minutes since the restart
Andreas: 0,46 xGi/90 (0,19xG/90 + 0,27xA/90) has played 500 minutes since the restart

Both Rashford and Fernades are outperforming their xG these days, so...

G+xA/90 (Actual goalthreat per 90)

Bruno: 0,93 G+xA/90 (0,33G/90 + 0,60xA/90)
Rashford: 0,97 G+xA/90 (0,91G/90 + 0,06xA/90)

Haaland (1,24 G+xA/90), Nketiah (0,99 G+xA/90) and Kane (0,84 G+xA/90) seems like the obvious beta for the forward positions both short and mid term.
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Interesting stats thanks. Only thing to be cautious of now with Bruno is that Eriksen is out long term and it reminds to be seen how this might affect him and the team in general for that matter.
 
I already used TC on Rashy for the last DGW (City, Palace) and he got me a nice 36 pointer.
But i feel there is a very good chance this upcoming DGW will be even better for him...

If I still had the TC chip, it would be a no brainer for me to use it on Rashford now.
 
CassiusClaymore said:
Interesting stats thanks. Only thing to be cautious of now with Bruno is that Eriksen is out long term and it reminds to be seen how this might affect him and the team in general for that matter.
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Yeah, that is interesting, but if anything I think it'll boost his numbers. He'll be on a lot more set pieces and will have more cover behind him to go forward.

A different route I'm concidering is Ake to Badiashile tihs week and Bruno+ferguson to Mahrez + Nketiah next week.
 
If I want Bruno, I'd have to sell either Kane or de Bruyne. Can't say I love it. Otherwise third United player would be the keeper I guess? But Bruno will punish me too hard if I don't get him I think. Tough stuff.
 
Can't decide re rashy and the TC this week. He's in such good form and it would make a lovely change to TC a United player, but I can't help but think that lanky city carthorse may tear a later DGW to shreds. Screw it, TC it is, gwan rashy.
 
Pickle85 said:
Can't decide re rashy and the TC this week. He's in such good form and it would make a lovely change to TC a United player, but I can't help but think that lanky city carthorse may tear a later DGW to shreds. Screw it, TC it is, gwan rashy.
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I have the TC on Rashford at the moment. Two winnable games at home against teams that we can score 3 per game against. Not sure if there will be a better TC option on Haaland later in the season.
 
Looks like it will come down to which one you wanna lose out of Kane or KDB to get Bruno.

Current team:

Kepa, Ward
Trips, White, Shaw, Ake, Patterson
KDB, Saka, Martinelli, Rashford, Andreas
Kane, Haaland, Mitrovic

2 FT. 0 ITB.

Possible moves:
1 FT: KDB to Bruno. Roll the other. Next week can do Mitro and Martinelli to Mahrez and Nketiah
2 FT: Kane and Martinelli to Bruno and Nketiah this week. Sets me with 3 each of Arse, United, City who have doubles. No transfer required next week.
2 FT: Mitro and White to Nketiah and Varane. This means no Bruno which I don't really prefer. Need him this week.
-4 hit: Mitro, KDB, Martinelli to Mahrez, Bruno and Nketiah. Not sure if I should take a hit for this.

Team structure wise second one with selling Kane looks most sensible. Spurs don't have doubles, blank in 28 but have great fixtures and Kane is in form.

Thoughts @CassiusClaymore @Dirty Schwein @Sandikan @others
 
TC seems better on Haaland next dgw imo. Rashford rarely scores more than 2 goals in the same game, where Haaland already has a couple of hattricks
 
Moby said:
Looks like it will come down to which one you wanna lose out of Kane or KDB to get Bruno.

Current team:

Kepa, Ward
Trips, White, Shaw, Ake, Patterson
KDB, Saka, Martinelli, Rashford, Andreas
Kane, Haaland, Mitrovic

2 FT. 0 ITB.

Possible moves:
1 FT: KDB to Bruno. Roll the other. Next week can do Mitro and Martinelli to Mahrez and Nketiah
2 FT: Kane and Martinelli to Bruno and Nketiah this week. Sets me with 3 each of Arse, United, City who have doubles. No transfer required next week.
2 FT: Mitro and White to Nketiah and Varane. This means no Bruno which I don't really prefer. Need him this week.
-4 hit: Mitro, KDB, Martinelli to Mahrez, Bruno and Nketiah. Not sure if I should take a hit for this.

Team structure wise second one with selling Kane looks most sensible. Spurs don't have doubles, blank in 28 but have great fixtures and Kane is in form.

Thoughts @CassiusClaymore @Dirty Schwein @Sandikan @others
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Tough one between the first two options. I like them both. How badly do you want to hold on to Kane is the question?
 
troylocker said:
Thanks for the feedback!
I have several thoughts on how to move forward, this was one of them. The Pickford pick is because of a possible new manager with ultra defensive approach bounce and some really nice fixtures for Everton from GW 24. Don't disagree with the Iverson road either, it's definitely an option.

I really want to keep Bruno, both because he's a great differential pick and his numbers since the restart is fantastic! ....and we still don't know if he's on penalties or not. Plan is to keep both Bruno and Rashford if possible.

Bruno and Rashford since the restart (GW17-GW21):

xGi/90 (Expected goal involvments per 90 minutes)

Bruno: 0,80 xGi/90 (0,2xG/90 + 0,60xA/90) Bruno has played every minute since the restart: 540 minutes
Rashford: 0,75 xGi/90 (0,69xG/90 + 0,06xA/90) Rashford has played 492 minutes since the restart.

Compared to the other midfield popular picks in the league:
Odegaard: 0,69 xGi/90 (0,23xG/90 + 0,46xA/90) has played 446 minutes since the restart
Saka: 0,55 xGi/90 (0,33xG/90 + 0,22xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Martinelli: 0,57 xGi/90 (0,21xG/90 + 0,36xA/90) has played 436 minutes since the restart
Mitoma: 0,58 xGi/90 (0,48xG/90 + 0,10xA/90) has played 440 minutes since the restart
March: 0,80 xGi/90 (0,38xG/90 + 0,42xA/90) has played 423 minutes since the restart, has never shown anything like this form in his and is contributed to as many goals the last 5 games as he did the last 3 seasons in total. So prob not sustainable.
KDB: 0,76 xGi/90 (0,11xG/90 + 0,65xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Mahrez: 0,93 xGi/90 (0,36xG/90 + 0,57xA/90) has played 474 minutes since the restart
Salah: 0,77 xGi/90 (0,40xG/90 + 0,37xA/90) has played 450 minutes since the restart
Almiron: 0,21 xGi/90 (0,12xG/90 + 0,09xA/90) has played 418 minutes since the restart
Bailey: 0,37 xGi/90 (0,32xG/90 + 0,05xA/90) has played 421 minutes since the restart
Andreas: 0,46 xGi/90 (0,19xG/90 + 0,27xA/90) has played 500 minutes since the restart

Both Rashford and Fernades are outperforming their xG these days, so...

G+xA/90 (Actual goalthreat per 90)

Bruno: 0,93 G+xA/90 (0,33G/90 + 0,60xA/90)
Rashford: 0,97 G+xA/90 (0,91G/90 + 0,06xA/90)

Haaland (1,24 G+xA/90), Nketiah (0,99 G+xA/90) and Kane (0,84 G+xA/90) seems like the obvious beta for the forward positions both short and mid term.
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nice stats - how does Callum Wilson fare compared to Nketiah?
 
CassiusClaymore said:
Tough one between the first two options. I like them both. How badly do you want to hold on to Kane is the question?
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I'd definitely rather sell Mitrovic than him, and if I follow the first path it gives me the option to do that. It's coming down to whether I want Nketiah immediately or wait one GW and do that transfer then. Honestly so far I have felt KDB has not been worth that price, he's basically in our teams because he's the only nailed attacker in their team apart from Haaland.
 
Canuckred64 said:
I have the TC on Rashford at the moment. Two winnable games at home against teams that we can score 3 per game against. Not sure if there will be a better TC option on Haaland later in the season.
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You’re free to use your chips however you want of course, but Rashford has scored 0 hattricks and 6 braces in 224 games in the EPL. Haaland has 4 hattricks and 3 braces in his first 19 games in the league and he has a double already next week. Do you honestly think Rashford will outscore Haalands double this GW?

ROFLUTION said:
nice stats - how does Callum Wilson fare compared to Nketiah?
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Wilson has only played 255 minutes since the restart and hasn’t scored yet. He sits on 0,68xGi/90 and his goalthreat has been just 0,25 G+xA/90.
 
Moby said:
I'd definitely rather sell Mitrovic than him, and if I follow the first path it gives me the option to do that. It's coming down to whether I want Nketiah immediately or wait one GW and do that transfer then. Honestly so far I have felt KDB has not been worth that price, he's basically in our teams because he's the only nailed attacker in their team apart from Haaland.
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Yeah he is but I'm not gonna remove him before a double because we know how that goes. Probably not even until after 25 either as City don't blank and have great fixtures in 23, 24, 25. You've got Ake as your third player so you're ok. This might help you decide...

 
troylocker said:
You’re free to use your chips however you want of course, but Rashford has scored 0 hattricks and 6 braces in 224 games in the EPL. Haaland has 4 hattricks and 3 braces in his first 19 games in the league and he has a double already next week. Do you honestly think Rashford will outscore Haalands double this GW?


Wilson has only played 255 minutes since the restart and hasn’t scored yet. He sits on 0,68xGi/90 and his goalthreat has been just 0,25 G+xA/90.
Click to expand...

cheers! Not as bad as I thought with Wilson
 
Moby said:
Looks like it will come down to which one you wanna lose out of Kane or KDB to get Bruno.

Current team:

Kepa, Ward
Trips, White, Shaw, Ake, Patterson
KDB, Saka, Martinelli, Rashford, Andreas
Kane, Haaland, Mitrovic

2 FT. 0 ITB.

Possible moves:
1 FT: KDB to Bruno. Roll the other. Next week can do Mitro and Martinelli to Mahrez and Nketiah
2 FT: Kane and Martinelli to Bruno and Nketiah this week. Sets me with 3 each of Arse, United, City who have doubles. No transfer required next week.
2 FT: Mitro and White to Nketiah and Varane. This means no Bruno which I don't really prefer. Need him this week.
-4 hit: Mitro, KDB, Martinelli to Mahrez, Bruno and Nketiah. Not sure if I should take a hit for this.

Team structure wise second one with selling Kane looks most sensible. Spurs don't have doubles, blank in 28 but have great fixtures and Kane is in form.

Thoughts @CassiusClaymore @Dirty Schwein @Sandikan @others
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Kane is also a nice differential. I always get green arrows when he returns. I'm basically doing option 1
 
troylocker said:
You’re free to use your chips however you want of course, but Rashford has scored 0 hattricks and 6 braces in 224 games in the EPL. Haaland has 4 hattricks and 3 braces in his first 19 games in the league and he has a double already next week. Do you honestly think Rashford will outscore Haalands double this GW?


Wilson has only played 255 minutes since the restart and hasn’t scored yet. He sits on 0,68xGi/90 and his goalthreat has been just 0,25 G+xA/90.
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It's just rested there now. Haaland with Villa at home and Arsenal away dies seem like a better option. Thanks.
 
CassiusClaymore said:
Yeah he is but I'm not gonna remove him before a double because we know how that goes. Probably not even until after 25 either as City don't blank and have great fixtures in 23, 24, 25. You've got Ake as your third player so you're ok. This might help you decide...

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Yeah exactly Mahrez is there as a good option from City. Only thing is minutes.

Dirty Schwein said:
Kane is also a nice differential. I always get green arrows when he returns. I'm basically doing option 1
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Yea same. Will just do KDB to Bruno for now and change the rest next week. I already have two arsenal attackers so will give me a few options next week.
 
Moby said:
Looks like it will come down to which one you wanna lose out of Kane or KDB to get Bruno.

Current team:

Kepa, Ward
Trips, White, Shaw, Ake, Patterson
KDB, Saka, Martinelli, Rashford, Andreas
Kane, Haaland, Mitrovic

2 FT. 0 ITB.

Possible moves:
1 FT: KDB to Bruno. Roll the other. Next week can do Mitro and Martinelli to Mahrez and Nketiah
2 FT: Kane and Martinelli to Bruno and Nketiah this week. Sets me with 3 each of Arse, United, City who have doubles. No transfer required next week.
2 FT: Mitro and White to Nketiah and Varane. This means no Bruno which I don't really prefer. Need him this week.
-4 hit: Mitro, KDB, Martinelli to Mahrez, Bruno and Nketiah. Not sure if I should take a hit for this.

Team structure wise second one with selling Kane looks most sensible. Spurs don't have doubles, blank in 28 but have great fixtures and Kane is in form.

Thoughts @CassiusClaymore @Dirty Schwein @Sandikan @others
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Kane has stung me before and it was a reshuffle to get him in, so I'd be loathe to lose him.

I binned KDB for Bruno this week, and to be honest might just reverse that next week.
Although Almiron to Mahrez/Foden goes too, and might enable keeping Bruno for me. But for you maybe simply Bruno back to KDB next week for the double.
 
Sandikan said:
Kane has stung me before and it was a reshuffle to get him in, so I'd be loathe to lose him.

I binned KDB for Bruno this week, and to be honest might just reverse that next week.
Although Almiron to Mahrez/Foden goes too, and might enable keeping Bruno for me. But for you maybe simply Bruno back to KDB next week for the double.
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Yeah. Will do that only. Roll the other transfer. Then if I do Martinelli and Mitro to Nketiah and Mahrez I will have enough assets. And KDB Martinelli and Mitro are the players I want to sell anyway.

And this gives them one last chance to show if they can turn it around.
 
Moby said:
Looks like it will come down to which one you wanna lose out of Kane or KDB to get Bruno.

Current team:

Kepa, Ward
Trips, White, Shaw, Ake, Patterson
KDB, Saka, Martinelli, Rashford, Andreas
Kane, Haaland, Mitrovic

2 FT. 0 ITB.

Possible moves:
1 FT: KDB to Bruno. Roll the other. Next week can do Mitro and Martinelli to Mahrez and Nketiah
2 FT: Kane and Martinelli to Bruno and Nketiah this week. Sets me with 3 each of Arse, United, City who have doubles. No transfer required next week.
2 FT: Mitro and White to Nketiah and Varane. This means no Bruno which I don't really prefer. Need him this week.
-4 hit: Mitro, KDB, Martinelli to Mahrez, Bruno and Nketiah. Not sure if I should take a hit for this.

Team structure wise second one with selling Kane looks most sensible. Spurs don't have doubles, blank in 28 but have great fixtures and Kane is in form.

Thoughts @CassiusClaymore @Dirty Schwein @Sandikan @others
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I like alternative 2 best, but as you say Kane will score a lot of steady points the next 6-7 gameweeks, so alternative 4 doesn't look awfull either (even with the minus 4). Those two will leave you with the best teamstructure and I have zero faith in Mitro. You then have 2 gameweeks to get rid of at least one of Shaw/Bruno/Rashford.

I'm going into GW 22 like this:

Kepa (Ward)
Trips, Badiashile, Shaw (White, Bueno)
KDB, Bruno (V), Rashford (C), Odegaard, Mitoma
Haaland, Kane (Ferguson)
1,0M ITB (with 2 FTs for GW23)

GW 23 will look like this:

Kepa (Ward)
Trips, White, Shaw (Badiashile, Bueno)
KDB (V), Odegaard, Mahrez, Rashford (Mitoma)
Haaland (TC), Kane, Nketiah
0,9M ITB

I then have 2 GWs to get rid of at least one of Rashford, Mitoma, Shaw (Trips is staying) before GW25, unless I just play it with 10 players. Looks like both us and Brighton blanks again in GW28, so I guess I'll get rid of at least one before GW 25. Happy with the plan.
 
troylocker said:
You’re free to use your chips however you want of course, but Rashford has scored 0 hattricks and 6 braces in 224 games in the EPL. Haaland has 4 hattricks and 3 braces in his first 19 games in the league and he has a double already next week. Do you honestly think Rashford will outscore Haalands double this GW?


Wilson has only played 255 minutes since the restart and hasn’t scored yet. He sits on 0,68xGi/90 and his goalthreat has been just 0,25 G+xA/90.
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More points per goal for a midfielder to be fair.
 
I think I'm going the Gnonto & Bruno for Toney & Almiron route over the Nketiah & Bruno for Kane & Almiron version although I wouldn't be surprised to see them initially backfire. CAn easily see Toney banging against the Saints this weekend.

Long term though it allows me to off Toney and Almiron/Bruno (who becomes Mahrez in 23) before the blank in 25 leaving me with only Shaw, Trippier and Rashford who can be benched (might actually even sell Shaw by then). It also let's me keep Kane rather than having to waste a transfer getting him back in. Also I've see that Jesus is back on the grass so won't be long before Nketiah needs shifting as well.

Negatives are it costs me -4 to bring in Ode in GW23 alongside Mahrez and also leaves me with the sub optimal Arsenal trio of Ramsdale, Martinelli and Ode. Gnoto will be my main first bench player in there over Andreas I guess and will look to move to Ferguson when he's back.
 
Pickle85 said:
More points per goal for a midfielder to be fair.
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True that, but...

Rashford has 0,50 G/90 and 0,13xA/90 so far this season vs. Haalands 1,44 G/90 and 0,21xA/90
Rashford has been heavily outscoring his xG since the restart - 0,91 G/90 from 0,69 xG/90
He's been quite consistant around his xG (+0,7 %) the 8 seasons he's played in the EPL, so it's quite unlikely that he'll sustain an overperformance by 32% like he's been doing over the last 6 games.
He's also got a little help from his teammates getting an assist from a total of 0,32 xA

Haaland has a tough fixture away against Arsenal where he might or might not score (His away record this season is "just" 7 goals in 730 minutes - 0,86 G/90), but in the home fixture against Aston Villa I'm not betting against him:
He has 18 goals and 3 assists in 838 minutes on the Etihad this season: 1,93 G/90 and 2,26 G+A/90

Even with Rashfords good form and "easy" fixtures I believe it is very likely that Haaland outscores him in his double.
Haaland is also more likely to pick up more bonuspoints. (26 vs. 12 so far this season)

Statistically I'll favour Halaand by a clear margin, but it's a great thing football isn't science. Hopefully Rashford scores his first ever EPL hattrick (in 224 games) and Haaland doesn't score his 5th (in 19 games)
 
Doing a wildcard. Thoughts on this?

Sanchez - Ward
Trippier - Saliba - Burn - Robertson - Shaw
Saka - Odegaard - Rashford - Mitoma - Mudryk
Kane - Haaland - Mitrovic


Unsure about Robertson and possibly Mudryk. Especially if he gets a ban for that video going round.
 
Solius said:
Doing a wildcard. Thoughts on this?

Sanchez - Ward
Trippier - Saliba - Burn - Robertson - Shaw
Saka - Odegaard - Rashford - Mitoma - Mudryk
Kane - Haaland - Mitrovic


Unsure about Robertson and possibly Mudryk. Especially if he gets a ban for that video going round.
Click to expand...
Nice mixture of template and a few punts.
 
troylocker said:
You’re free to use your chips however you want of course, but Rashford has scored 0 hattricks and 6 braces in 224 games in the EPL. Haaland has 4 hattricks and 3 braces in his first 19 games in the league and he has a double already next week. Do you honestly think Rashford will outscore Haalands double this GW?


Wilson has only played 255 minutes since the restart and hasn’t scored yet. He sits on 0,68xGi/90 and his goalthreat has been just 0,25 G+xA/90.
Click to expand...
Important to remember one of Haaland’s games is away to the best team in the league
 
Solius said:
Doing a wildcard. Thoughts on this?

Sanchez - Ward
Trippier - Saliba - Burn - Robertson - Shaw
Saka - Odegaard - Rashford - Mitoma - Mudryk
Kane - Haaland - Mitrovic


Unsure about Robertson and possibly Mudryk. Especially if he gets a ban for that video going round.
Click to expand...

You're missing 6 starters in GW25. Plus crap fixtures that week for Leicester, Spurs and Chelsea.
 
troylocker said:
True that, but...

Rashford has 0,50 G/90 and 0,13xA/90 so far this season vs. Haalands 1,44 G/90 and 0,21xA/90
Rashford has been heavily outscoring his xG since the restart - 0,91 G/90 from 0,69 xG/90
He's been quite consistant around his xG (+0,7 %) the 8 seasons he's played in the EPL, so it's quite unlikely that he'll sustain an overperformance by 32% like he's been doing over the last 6 games.
He's also got a little help from his teammates getting an assist from a total of 0,32 xA

Haaland has a tough fixture away against Arsenal where he might or might not score (His away record this season is "just" 7 goals in 730 minutes - 0,86 G/90), but in the home fixture against Aston Villa I'm not betting against him:
He has 18 goals and 3 assists in 838 minutes on the Etihad this season: 1,93 G/90 and 2,26 G+A/90

Even with Rashfords good form and "easy" fixtures I believe it is very likely that Haaland outscores him in his double.
Haaland is also more likely to pick up more bonuspoints. (26 vs. 12 so far this season)

Statistically I'll favour Halaand by a clear margin, but it's a great thing football isn't science. Hopefully Rashford scores his first ever EPL hattrick (in 224 games) and Haaland doesn't score his 5th (in 19 games)
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Really useful analysis, thank you! Haaland does seem the smart move but I think I'm going with my heart. Been so long since a United player was a viable choice!
 
troylocker said:
True that, but...

Rashford has 0,50 G/90 and 0,13xA/90 so far this season vs. Haalands 1,44 G/90 and 0,21xA/90
Rashford has been heavily outscoring his xG since the restart - 0,91 G/90 from 0,69 xG/90
He's been quite consistant around his xG (+0,7 %) the 8 seasons he's played in the EPL, so it's quite unlikely that he'll sustain an overperformance by 32% like he's been doing over the last 6 games.
He's also got a little help from his teammates getting an assist from a total of 0,32 xA

Haaland has a tough fixture away against Arsenal where he might or might not score (His away record this season is "just" 7 goals in 730 minutes - 0,86 G/90), but in the home fixture against Aston Villa I'm not betting against him:
He has 18 goals and 3 assists in 838 minutes on the Etihad this season: 1,93 G/90 and 2,26 G+A/90

Even with Rashfords good form and "easy" fixtures I believe it is very likely that Haaland outscores him in his double.
Haaland is also more likely to pick up more bonuspoints. (26 vs. 12 so far this season)

Statistically I'll favour Halaand by a clear margin, but it's a great thing football isn't science. Hopefully Rashford scores his first ever EPL hattrick (in 224 games) and Haaland doesn't score his 5th (in 19 games)
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Another little syndrome Rashford has is that he usually returns better against teams that gives him space than against underdogs who parks the bus:

Rashford against the big 6 (Ars, Liv, City, Spurs and Che): 5 goals and 1 assist in 7 games (572 minutes) - 0,79G/90 (0,71G/game) and 0,94G+A/90 (0,86G+A/game)
Rashford against the rest (Like CP and Leeds): 4 goals and 2 assists in 13 games (1044 minutes) - 0,34G/90 (0,31G/game) and 0,52G+A/90 (0,46G+A/game)

He been performing great against anyone except CP lately though, so anything can happen.

Trequartistry said:
Important to remember one of Haaland’s games is away to the best team in the league
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Even if he still hasn't scored away against any of the big 6 (Liverpool, Chelsea and us) in the league, I'm still expecting him to get at least a couple of returns over those 2 matches, probably more.

One of the reasons I will choose Haaland over Rashford for triple captain is the max potential. The chance of Haaland totally destroying Villa, Arsenal or both. He's delivered 4 hattricks, 3 braces, a 23 pointer, three 17 pointers and three 13 pointers in 19 games. Rashford has one brace, one 18 pointer and one 14 pointer in 20 games and has never scored a hattrick in the EPL in 8 seasons.
6 times this season Haaland has scored a combined 23+ points (23, 34, 26, 29, 29 and 23) over 2 following games and 10 times +15 points. Rashford has only once scored 23+ points over 2 following games (24) and 5 times +15
 
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Locked in. Have to play the doubles to the fullest. Can't help it

Ramsdale
Trippier Shaw Thomas
KDB Martinelli Rashford (c) Bruno (vc)
Haaland Kane Gnonto

subs: Ward, Perisic, Andreas, Patterson

Can easily get to 3 City and 3 Arsenal next week for -4 in a variety of ways.
 
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