Yeah but how many clear cut chances do our forwards get per game? Haaland would of course be a huge improvement, but I am not sure if he looked as impressive as he is doing for Dortmund.
Erling Haaland or Jadon Sancho?
- Thread starter Silverman
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Yeah but how many clear cut chances do our forwards get per game? Haaland would of course be a huge improvement, but I am not sure if he looked as impressive as he is doing for Dortmund.
Imagine how much better we will be with more of the same coming from the right.
I'd obviously love Halaand but I could cope with another year of Cavani, Martial and giving more nr. 9 game time to Greenwood.
I know. And yet, Rashford’s main focus is still on goalscoring and he’s more of an all-rounded striker rather than a creative winger. Just like an older version of Ronaldo (although obviously not as good), he finds himself in good positions and has the technique to make a great pass in the final third, and he’ll naturally get a lot of assists that way. But his instinct is still to make a run in behind, and we lack a different kind of player. Amad is a great example of such a player based on his youth games, but who knows how fast will he be able to replicate his level while playing with adults.
Let's look at the stats:
Rashford, Cavani, Greenwood and Rashford:
- 36 goals this season from 243 shots - convertionrate of 0,148 goals/shot
- 108 of 243 shots on target - Shots on target 44,4%
- 36 goals in 108 shots on target - Goals per shot on target 0,333 goals/shot on target
Haaland:
- 27 goals this season from 88 shots - conversionrate of 0,307 goals/shot
- 49 of 88 shots on target - Shots on target 55,7%
- 27 goals in 49 shots on target - Goals per shot on target 0,551 goals/shot on target.
He has averaged 3,55 shots per 90 minutes this season, while our attackers averages between 2,5 and 3 shots per 90 minutes.
Give Haaland 3027 minutes (same as Rashford so far this season) with 3 shots per 90 minutes (same as Greenwood so far this season) for us and he would have 31 goals with the same minutes and number of chances as our current attackers so far this season. Think a little bit about that. His finishing, movement and positional awareness is actually that good.
We are looking at a striker that literally needs less than half the chances our current attackers needs to score a goal. Ha has better movement and will find himself in better scoringpositions more often than our current attackers, so his shots/90 would probably be higher than 3.
That's not how it works. Haaland would obviously score more goals but this is such a flawed method.
If we follow this model then Icardi would have scored billion goals if he took as many shots as Ronaldo but that will never happen.
Haaland took 5 shots from outside the box in the league, the players you mentioned took 44 shots from outside the box.
Sancho is great but Haaland is one of a generation.
Can he do it on a rainy Monday in Stoke?
Of course there is more context behind the numbers.
Factors like average distance per shot, expected goals etc.
This still shows that Haaland finds himself in better scoring posisitons more often than our attacking crew and that he converts his chances more efficiently than our guys. Expected goals shows that Greenwoods and Martials finishing this season has been very bad, while Rashford actually has is beating his expected goals by quite some margin.
I still think Haaland would not become Greenwood, Cavani or Martial if he comes here. He will still be Haaland and he would bring his runs, positioning and assessment of the game, leading to him getting into better scoring positions than our current crew.
Hehe! We got James, VDB, Greenwood, Shoretire, Diallo and Martial to do the early cup rounds for us.....Can he do it on a rainy Monday in Stoke?
Of course Haaland is better than our attackers, I said the logic has so many holes.
Player X scored 10 goals in 20 shots, so if he takes 100 shots he will score 50 goals is a flawed logic.
If you put into that context that he also finshes from better scoringpositions than player Y on average, the stat isn't really that flawed. It's not a 100% finishing ability stat, it combines xG and finishing ability. There is no way of knowing how a player will perform in sa different set up, but I think this is the best parameter for it.
Our forwards get a lot. Haaland would also have better movement, make his own chances and offer an aerial threat.
Haaland would be top scorer in the league.
I'd bet he'dlove to play there. Some seriously naughty women in Stoke(or men
)It is flawed.
For example, In 2017-18, Icardi scored 29 league goals in 101 shots, in the same season Insigne took 177 shots. So that means if Icardi played for Napoli, he would have scored around 50 league goals? Few players take ridiculous number of long shots, especially when they play from wide positions.
I'm sure there will be few players who had better conversion rate than Ronaldo when he was at his peak, doesn't mean they would have scored as many goals as Ronaldo if they took as many shots. It just means Ronaldo took way too many shots from all over the places.
VdB scored 1 goal from 1 shot in PL this season, imagine if he shoots around 100 times like Bruno, there is no stopping us even if whole of PL plays together.
Judging on the rubbish passing and ball retention of late, he'd need to
There is obviously flaws to these numbers and there is no guarantees. The expamples you give enlightens that, even though I think the DvB example is cheap. I do believe these numbers can be used to see who is the better finishers and who is better at finding good posisitons to get good scoring opportunities though, even with the obvious flaws behind the numbers.
My point is that I think there should be no doubt that we would score more goals with Haaland on the pitch than our current alternatives.
I didn't disagree with the point that Haaland is better player and scores more goals, I even said that in my post. My point was, the method you posted is clearly flawed and can't be used for anything as it has 0 context.
I think you are making a good argument, no doubt about that. The only point of contention, not regarding Haaland, is if our nr.9, whoever that might be, would get significant more goals if we had a great creator on the wing like Sancho. Goals scorers and the creativity around them are interconnected things.
I think both players would improve us a lot but right now I don't think we can get the best out of Cavani, Martial or Greenwood up top due to a lack of service from the right side.
Numbers will never show the full picture and will allways have flaws when evaluating a players.
The thing is that even a 34 year old, out and out striker, like Cavani gets around 2,5 shots per 90 for us, and his avg. distance to goal per shot is 11,6 meters. Haaland's avg. distance to goal per shot is 13,1 meters. It's obviously impossible to exchange this in an unflawed 100% realistic matter, but we can play with the numbers and put Haalands conversionrate in Cavani's chances this season and we get the following:
Cavani: 1275 minutes, 2,54 shots/90, totally 36 shots from an avg. distance of 11,6m from goal.
While Cavani has scored 7 goals from those 36 shots, Haaland would (without any other context than goal/shot ratio at a longer avg. distance per shot) score at least 10 goals from those same chances.
The numbers shows that Haaland is an elite finisher (He is consistantly outscoring his expected goals by more than 20%) and has an extreme ability to find himself in good scoring positions in and around the box (Expected goals per 90 of 0,89 and expected goals+assists per 90 of 1,12). The funny thing is that he is even more impressive in the CL than in the BL.
The reason I did all this number digging is to show that we actually provide a decent amount of serice to our strikers today, despite what some of you might think, and bringing in a monster like Haaland would have a massive immediate effect on our end product. I also believe he would make Brunos', our midfielders' and wingers job easier, because of his movement, ability to occupy defenders and create space for himself and his teammates.
We create good number of chances, we have seen Martial taking extra touch to fluff the chance, Rashford missing sitters, Cavani miskicking the ball and Greenwood not able to shoot without hitting the defender.
It's very simple, Haaland would be brilliant CF for any team he signs for and scores shit loads of goals. My argument was on the model you used, I disagree with that completely and I even gave reasons why.
That is fair enough.
What model would do a better job translating these players' abilities to endproduct?
No idea, maybe xG to show how good they are to get into goal scoring position but then again it depends on how the team is set up, how good the supporting players are and all that.
Martial is not a goal scorer, stop kidding yourself.
Haaland would score double the amount of goals he gets in any team.
Going by the "bird in hand" philosophy, I'd go get Sancho since he's available and Dortmund is looking to sell him. If we are going to wait for Haaland, we may end up missing both of them. If Sancho is expensive, I would go get Pedro Neto, the guy is the same age and tearing it up in the PL for Wolves. Neto could end up at City or Liverpool.
Haaland all day. He is a one-in-a-decade goal terminator. Incredibly disciplined, hard-working, focused. His only goal since years is to get the maximum out of his body week in week out. Just like Christiano, he also pays a lot of attention on nutrition, sleeping schedule, quality of sleep (no lights, smartphones screens etc. before going to bed). He does not give a sh*t about woman, or fame, or cloting, or cars. Of course this will come but at the moment, he is just one of the most interesting overall individuals out in the footballing world. With a solid delivery arround him (quick passes through the middle, accurate crosses etc.) he wil be a machine and will at least double the current statistics we get from Martial.
As of an outside perspective it looks good that we can secure him, doesn´t it? Ole as his country man, fathers trust figure and mentor since years. United to provide secure CL football next season while Dortmund may miss out. Dortmund´s usually low salary level, which we could at least double for him. His natural type/body is England bound. Could be worse! Let us hope for the best.
As of an outside perspective it looks good that we can secure him, doesn´t it? Ole as his country man, fathers trust figure and mentor since years. United to provide secure CL football next season while Dortmund may miss out. Dortmund´s usually low salary level, which we could at least double for him. His natural type/body is England bound. Could be worse! Let us hope for the best.
At the end of last season, with the way Greenwood and Martial were playing/scoring, for me Sancho would have been the priority since we've not had a proper right winger in a decade almost.
This season with both Martial/Greenwood sputtering in front of goal and also with the purchase of Diallo, if it was one or the other, it would have to be Halaand now. Having a 20+ goal #9 consistently is something we need if we are going to truly challenge for league/champions league.
Martial as much as I like him and that he has so much talent but, at 25, not having any kind of consistency cannot be relied on being the regular #9 for us going forward. Him, Greenwood, Rashford and Diallo can vie for the wide forward spots.
This season with both Martial/Greenwood sputtering in front of goal and also with the purchase of Diallo, if it was one or the other, it would have to be Halaand now. Having a 20+ goal #9 consistently is something we need if we are going to truly challenge for league/champions league.
Martial as much as I like him and that he has so much talent but, at 25, not having any kind of consistency cannot be relied on being the regular #9 for us going forward. Him, Greenwood, Rashford and Diallo can vie for the wide forward spots.
If we take xG and compare to some of the greats and some of our own players:
Erling Haaland in the BL since jan 2020:
xG90 = 0,78
xG total = 22,65 goals - scored 30 goals
goals/90 = 1,04
Has outscored his xG90 with 32,5%
Average shots/90 = 3,18
Cristiano Ronaldo in LaLiga and Serie A since summer 2014:
xG90 = 0,96
xG total = 198,01 goals - scored 205 goals
goals/90 = 1,00
Has outscored his xG90 with 3,5%
Average shots/90 = 6,24
Lionel Messi in LaLiga since summer 2014:
xG90 = 0,85
xG total = 184,12 goals - scored 220 goals
goals/90 = 1,02
Has outscored his xG90 with 19,5%
Average shots/90 = 5,45
Robert Lewandowski in BL for Bayern Munchen:
xG90 = 0,97
xG total = 189,64 goals - scored 190
goals/90 = 0,97
Has scored on par with his xG
Average shots/90 = 4,57
Mbappe in Ligue 1:
xG90 = 0,81
xG total = 86,09 - scored 98
goals/90 = 0,93
Has outscored his xG with 13,8%
Average shots/90 = 3,96
Lukaku for Manchester United in the PL:
xG90 = 0,53
xG total = 28,58 goals - scored 28
goals/90 = 0,51
A tiny bit below his xG
Average shots/90 = 2,52
Cavani for Manchester United in the PL:
xG90 = 0,68
xG total = 6,29 goals - scored 6
goals/90 = 0,65
A tiny bit below his xG
Average shots/90 = 2,59
Martial as a CF for Manchester United in the PL:
xG90 = 0,44
xG total = 31,94 goals - scored 32
goals/90 = 0,44
On par with his xG
Average shots/90 = 2,4
From this we can read:
- Our strikers has been decent finishers, but has lacked a bit of service or has not created too many chances for themselves.
- Ronaldo and Lewa has had excellent service and been great at creating chances for himself while his finishing has been decent.
- Messi's finishing has been excellent, while also getting great service and creating a lot of chances for himself.
- Mbappe is great at finishing and has had decent service while also creating some chances for himself.
- Haaland looks like the superior finisher by some distance of the lot, despite getting limited service and not creating too many chances for himself still scores the most goals per 90.
If you put into context that Ronaldo, Messi, Lewa and Mbappe has played for very dominant teams in their leagues and have been the focal points of these teams ( - Mbappe to a certain degree) as well, it makes what Haaland is doing even more outstanding.
There is of course not much context behind these numbers either, but no matter how you twist and turn every statistic out there, this 20 year old Norwegian stands out.
Did anyone say Haaland isn't better than what we have, isn't one of the best CF in the world, doesn't have arguably the best off the ball movement, one of the most lethal striker in the world?
I’m not trying to take you on here
I’m just building a case of why we should be all over Haaland before anyone else.
I’m not trying to take you on here
I’m just building a case of why we should be all over Haaland before anyone else.
Well CAF has been on that case for more than a year
Good question.
The higher np:G-xG the better. Haaland is about top3/5 in Bundesliga on that stat.
Based ion that he performs better than Cavani (low sample I guess) and Bruno (good enough for me).
Martial and Greenwood are absolutely shocking this season.