Cold War against China?

[neverdie]

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan marks the beginning of a new and dire strategic crisis with China. Whether by accident or design, the Biden administration is sleepwalking into war with China—quickly, but not quickly enough for most Republican leaders. While the United States wasted $6 trillion or more in failed nation-building campaigns during the past 20 years, China focused its military resources on surface-to-ship missiles, modern aircraft, submarines, and electronic warfare measures on its coast. If we fight China on its home seas, we probably will lose.

“There is a fundamental asymmetry of strategic interest in Taiwan.”

There is a fundamental asymmetry of strategic interest in Taiwan between China and the United States. China is not a nation-state but a polyglot empire. Only 1 in 10 Chinese converses in Mandarin, the state dialect, according to a 2014 government study. Most speak one of 200 dialects. China is held together as it has been for thousands of years by a common tax collector in Beijing and the Mandarin bureaucracy, recast as the Chinese Communist Party. One rebel province—as Beijing views Taiwan—sets a precedent for many. Countless times in its long history, China has fragmented into warring provinces, encouraged during the 19th and 20th centuries by foreign powers.

Opposition to Taiwanese sovereignty is a raison d’etre of the Chinese state, and Beijing will go to war to prevent it. Beijing will tolerate the status quo, but not if it believes the United States is promoting Taiwanese sovereignty.
What makes Pelosi’s visit so provocative is her constitutional status as second in the line of presidential succession. A visit by an American vice president would, in diplomatic protocol, verge upon diplomatic recognition and crosses a red line; a visit by the next-in-line to the vice president touches that red line.

Our diplomatic relations with China are based on the Shanghai Communique of 1972, which states:

The Chinese side reaffirmed its position: the Taiwan question is the crucial question obstructing the normalization of relations between China and the United States; the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government of China; Taiwan is a province of China which has long been returned to the motherland; the liberation of Taiwan is China’s internal affair in which no other country has the right to interfere; and all US forces and military installations must be withdrawn from Taiwan. The Chinese Government firmly opposes any activities which aim at the creation of “one China, one Taiwan,” “one China, two governments,” “two Chinas,” an “independent Taiwan” or advocate that “the status of Taiwan remains to be determined.”

The US side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.

A member of the Nixon delegation that wrote this document in 1972 told me that the Pelosi visit “clearly violates the spirit of the Shanghai Communique” because of the Speaker’s constitutional status. A consultation with an official so close to the presidency de facto treats the Taiwanese government as if it were a sovereign, and contradicts the 1972 commitment to a “settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.” That is why China’s President Xi Jinping told Biden in their conversation last week: “If you play with fire, it will set you on fire.” China has not made threats like this since Nixon’s 1972 visit.

Infuriatingly, the Biden administration has refused to take responsibility for the visit. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that “the decision is entirely the speaker’s” to visit Taiwan. If Pelosi had taken a commercial flight, rather than an American military aircraft, Blinken’s demurral would have more credibility. President Biden told reporters in an off-hand conversation that “the military doesn’t like it,” but did nothing to dissuade Pelosi. White House press spokesman John Kirby insisted to reporters that the One China policy has not changed.

That is double-talk and it doesn’t wash in China. In an Aug. 2 interview, Prof. Wang Wen of Renmin University was asked by the Observer, “Is the US pretending to be stupid?” He replied: “This business of pretending to be stupid means they clearly understand China's fundamental interest and red line on the Taiwan issue, but nonetheless, they have stepped on it repeatedly.”

full article https://compactmag.com/article/sleepwalking-into-war-with-china

 

[Foxbatt]

full article https://compactmag.com/article/sleepwalking-into-war-with-china

Most Taiwanese and a lot of Chinese accept the current status quo. Taiwan under the KMT had decent relations with mainland China. What is also odd was the under the KMT, Taiwan was invited and hosted by The Chinese at many international conferences under the auspices of the UN. Under the DPP, it was the exact opposite as DPP favors independence from China. China would not invade but do an economic sanctions first. Look at what happened in HK? The PLA did not invade but everything has quietened down and this is how the Chinese would deal with Taiwan. It is best that outsiders do not get involved in the internal matters of other countries.

 

[neverdie]

Most Taiwanese and a lot of Chinese accept the current status quo. Taiwan under the KMT had decent relations with mainland China. What is also odd was the under the KMT, Taiwan was invited and hosted by The Chinese at many international conferences under the auspices of the UN. Under the DPP, it was the exact opposite as DPP favors independence from China. China would not invade but do an economic sanctions first. Look at what happened in HK? The PLA did not invade but everything has quietened down and this is how the Chinese would deal with Taiwan. It is best that outsiders do not get involved in the internal matters of other countries.

50% of the taiwanese economy is directly related to trade with china so i would agree that it's best to let them figure it out themselves. china won't want to invade. only thing likely to make that happen would be the us putting misiles and other things in taiwan which also seems unlikely. as the author points out, this has been wargamed many times over and the result has always been a chinese win over american assets in that region. they have superiority on their own coast which is hardly surprising. also, the trade volume between the us and china is enormous. a cold war sounds good and sells newspapers but practically it's dangerous and benefits neither side.

 

[neverdie]

China will invade Taiwan unless they see a strong stance from the US, same thing should have happened with the Ukraine and Russia would have never invaded.

i missed this last point. no, it's the exact opposite. us meddling in taiwan is what increases the liklihood of chinese action including the sinking of us warships and carrier groups. go see the results of the us wargames. chinese victory every time. you don't want to get involved in something like that.

if left alone the taiwanese and chinese will ultimately reach some deal between them over the coming years. mutual interest between each.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

It is best that outsiders do not get involved in the internal matters of other countries.

Taiwan has been its own country and culture developing since 1949. According to a poll from June 2020, only 23.4% preferred maintaining the status quo while 12.5% favored unification with China, and those numbers are projected to keep on dwindling even further.

full article https://compactmag.com/article/sleepwalking-into-war-with-china

Feck Nixon. The world lives in a far different reality from 50 years ago, especially a lot more since February 24.

 

[neverdie]

Taiwan has been its own country and culture developing since 1949. According to a poll from June 2020, only 23.4% preferred maintaining the status quo while 12.5% favored unification with China, and those numbers are projected to keep on dwindling even further.


Feck Nixon. The world lives in a far different reality from 50 years ago, especially a lot more since February 24.

part of that reality is one where china is an economic superpower and regional military superpower which regards taiwan as a chinese province but is maintaining status quo.

 

[The Firestarter]

i missed this last point. no, it's the exact opposite. us meddling in taiwan is what increases the liklihood of chinese action including the sinking of us warships and carrier groups. go see the results of the us wargames. chinese victory every time. you don't want to get involved in something like that.

if left alone the taiwanese and chinese will ultimately reach some deal between them over the coming years. mutual interest between each.

Us wargames predicted Russia rolling over Ukraine in 96 hours. They tend to overestimate their near peers, something that has many benefits , including financial. "Sinking of carrier groups" that's not really happening (conventional ordnance), not while the technological gap is what it is. China can't build a proper jet engine yet, let alone subs that are even remotely comparable to the US ones in sound output. A Naval engagement is always on the US favour , provided SK and JP play ball. Striking deep into Chinese mainland is completely different and rather unrealistic.

 

[neverdie]

Us wargames predicted Russia rolling over Ukraine in 96 hours. They tend to overestimate their near peers, something that has many benefits , including financial. "Sinking of carrier groups" that's not really happening (conventional ordnance), not while the technological gap is what it is. China can't build a proper jet engine yet, let alone subs that are even remotely comparable to the US ones in sound output. A Naval engagement is always on the US favour , provided SK and JP play ball. Striking deep into Chinese mainland os completely different and rather unrealistic.

i don't think any of that tallies with the reality painted by official documents. the chinese have invested a lot in coastal defenses and i don't know about building jet engines but they've built a lot of warships and submarines and landed a spacecraft on the darkside of the moon. taiwan is also not ukraine. there's no nato supply line to funnel arms into it once war starts. china would impose a blockade and taiwan would be cutoff entirely.

the article is a good read. many more us based articles which basically say the same thing.

 

[The Firestarter]

i don't think any of that tallies with the reality painted by official documents. the chinese have invested a lot in coastal defenses and i don't know about building jet engines but they've built a lot of warships and submarines and landed a spacecraft on the darkside of the moon. taiwan is also not ukraine. there's no nato supply line to funnel arms into it once war starts. china would impose a blockade and taiwan would be cutoff entirely.

the article is a good read. many more us based articles which basically say the same thing.

Not sure how landing a probe on the moon is comparable to stealth both in jets and subs. Also, China has really not been in a serious conflict for decades. Their tactics and weapons are untested. As I said , in this situation the wargame planners tend to overestimate both. Can't see them imposing a working blockade while the US navy has bases in Korea and Japan. If these were somehow inaccessible, then it becomes very difficult.

 

[neverdie]

Not sure how landing a probe on the moon is comparable to stealth both in jets and subs. Also, China has really not been in a serious conflict for decades. Their tactics and weapons are untested. As I said , in this situation the wargame planners tend to overestimate both. Can't see them imposing a working blockade while the US navy has bases in Korea and Japan. If these were somehow inaccessible, then it becomes very difficult.

The answer is a matter of debate, and it depends on what it would take to compel Taiwan’s capitulation. Beijing is preparing for four main campaigns that its military planners believe could be necessary to take control of the island. The first consists of joint PLA missile and airstrikes to disarm Taiwanese targets—initially military and government, then civilian—and thereby force Taipei’s submission to Chinese demands. The second is a blockade operation in which China would attempt to cut the island off from the outside world with everything from naval raids to cyberattacks. The third involves missile and airstrikes against U.S. forces deployed nearby, with the aim of making it difficult for the United States to come to Taiwan’s aid in the initial stages of the conflict. The fourth and final campaign is an island landing effort in which China would launch an amphibious assault on Taiwan—perhaps taking its offshore islands first as part of a phased invasion or carpet bombing them as the navy, the army, and the air force focused on Taiwan proper.

Among defense experts, there is little debate about China’s ability to pull off the first three of these campaigns—the joint strike, the blockade, and the counterintervention mission. Neither U.S. efforts to make its regional bases more resilient nor Taiwanese missile defense systems are any match for China’s ballistic and cruise missiles, which are the most advanced in the world. China could quickly destroy Taiwan’s key infrastructure, block its oil imports, and cut off its Internet access—and sustain such a blockade indefinitely. According to Lonnie Henley, a retired U.S. intelligence officer and China specialist, “U.S. forces could probably push through a trickle of relief supplies, but not much more.” And because China has such a sophisticated air defense system, the United States would have little hope of regaining air or naval superiority by attacking Chinese missile transporters, fighters, or ships.

But China’s fourth and final campaign—an amphibious assault on the island itself—is far from guaranteed to succeed. According to a 2020 U.S. Department of Defense report, “China continues to build capabilities that would contribute to a full-scale invasion,” but “an attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention.” The then commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, said in March that China will have the ability to successfully invade Taiwan in six years. Other observers think it will take longer, perhaps until around 2030 or 2035.

The voices in Beijing arguing that it is time to use newfound military capabilities against Taiwan have grown louder.

What everyone agrees is that China has made significant strides in its ability to conduct joint operations in recent years and that the United States needs adequate warning to mount a successful defense. As Beijing hones its spoofing and jamming technologies, it may be able to scramble U.S. early warning systems and thereby keep U.S. forces in the dark in the early hours of an attack. Xi’s military reforms have improved China’s cyberwarfare and electronic warfare capabilities, which could be trained on civilian, as well as military, targets. As Dan Coats, then the U.S. director of national intelligence, testified in 2019, Beijing is capable of offensive cyberattacks against the United States that would cause “localized, temporary disruptive effects on critical infrastructure.” China’s offensive weaponry, including ballistic and cruise missiles, could also destroy U.S. bases in the western Pacific in a matter of days.

In light of these enhanced capabilities, many U.S. experts worry that China could take control of Taiwan before the United States even had a chance to react. Recent war games conducted by the Pentagon and the RAND Corporation have shown that a military clash between the United States and China over Taiwan would likely result in a U.S. defeat, with China completing an all-out invasion in just days or weeks.

again just a snippet as can't do full articles but it's free to read here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation

the landing if it were to happen would prove difficult some say but there is a consensus in military and foreign policy circles that china has prepared very well to counteract any us attempts. it's not what it was 20 years ago. its troops aren't combat tested, that's true, but technologically a lot of people don't understand the extent of china's military superiority within its own region.

 

[Smores]

Taiwan has been its own country and culture developing since 1949. According to a poll from June 2020, only 23.4% preferred maintaining the status quo while 12.5% favored unification with China, and those numbers are projected to keep on dwindling even further.


Feck Nixon. The world lives in a far different reality from 50 years ago, especially a lot more since February 24.

Did you have to go back to a very specific poll in 2020 for that or something because that's not what most polling shows at all. Status quo is strongly favoured and constantly shows that in polling, there isn't any great push to change that.

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

 

[Foxbatt]

Taiwan has been its own country and culture developing since 1949. According to a poll from June 2020, only 23.4% preferred maintaining the status quo while 12.5% favored unification with China, and those numbers are projected to keep on dwindling even further.


Feck Nixon. The world lives in a far different reality from 50 years ago, especially a lot more since February 24.

The question is not unification. The issue is that most Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo. The Chinese are not pushing for forceful unification either. What the main issue is that the Taiwanese constitution still maintains the one China status. Only that the wrong party is in power. You have got it completely wrong on this. Taiwan has to change their constitution first. This is why it is better not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.

 

[MDFC Manager]

Did you have to go back to a very specific poll in 2020 for that or something because that's not what most polling shows at all. Status quo is strongly favoured and constantly shows that in polling, there isn't any great push to change that.

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

Wonder what such polls in HK showed before and after the HK protest/crackdown situation...

It's not the same situation, but Taiwanese people will rightfully be wary of what's happening in Hong Kong

 

[sun_tzu]

a lot of people don't understand the extent of china's military superiority within its own region.

i think also look at how many US and EU troops have been sent into Ukraine

Sure they might say they will sell Taiwan arms - but getting them landed in a warzone / blockade will be pretty much impossible (again we are sending things by road / rail into Ukraine no boats and planes)

I don't see any troops being sent to the region and no real resupply of arms taking place

If China wants to invade Taiwan they will and nobody will stop them

Again the UN dont recognise Taiwan as a soverign nation (infact only a handful of countries do)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-taiwan

Basically nobody is gonna F with china over Taiwan

 

[Smores]

Wonder what such polls in HK showed before and after the HK protest/crackdown situation...

It's not the same situation, but Taiwanese people will rightfully be wary of what's happening in Hong Kong

I believe Hong Kong independence always polled slightly higher circa 20% but then that makes sense given the history.

Not sure the situations are comparable really but could well impact the appetite for some form of unification.

I think it's a generational issue that impacts even China itself. There's a lot of the older generation that have gone through a lot where as the youngsters now don't have those ties nor prior hardships. They're looking forward to the next progression which is going to less control and more democracy. The political narrative to Taiwan will soften in time when the base that favours it does out.

 

[stevoc]

50% of the taiwanese economy is directly related to trade with china so i would agree that it's best to let them figure it out themselves. china won't want to invade. only thing likely to make that happen would be the us putting misiles and other things in taiwan which also seems unlikely. as the author points out, this has been wargamed many times over and the result has always been a chinese win over american assets in that region. they have superiority on their own coast which is hardly surprising. also, the trade volume between the us and china is enormous. a cold war sounds good and sells newspapers but practically it's dangerous and benefits neither side.

Is this a scenario where the US launch an land invasion of China itself?

Also if the wargames were conducted by the US military I'd take the results with a pinch of salt. As every branch of the US military always want more funding.

 

[neverdie]

Is this a scenario where the US launch an land invasion of China itself?

Also if the wargames were conducted by the US military I'd take the results with a pinch of salt. As every branch of the US military always want more funding.

it's a scenario where china invades taiwan and factors in us involvment meaning that if it thinks the us will intervene china is prepared to strike various us targets preemptively.

i agree with the second part. the strength and weakness of the us military is often used for different reasons. funding is a massive one. but i do think it makes sense to assume china has superiority off the chinese coast.

 

[The Firestarter]

again just a snippet as can't do full articles but it's free to read here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation

the landing if it were to happen would prove difficult some say but there is a consensus in military and foreign policy circles that china has prepared very well to counteract any us attempts. it's not what it was 20 years ago. its troops aren't combat tested, that's true, but technologically a lot of people don't understand the extent of china's military superiority within its own region.

There are technical inaccuracies within this article , but the notion of China preemptively hitting US assets without Taiwan and USA being in any kind of formal defense agreement is asinine. Because this move would be an equivalent to Japan attack on Pearl Harbour, completely removing any strategic ambiguity , getting bipartisan support within the US , and basically ensuring that China would be bombed into the stone age and most of its fleet destroyed. There would be no other outcome, even if it takes a while. If they invade Taiwan directly, on the other hand, the US may or may not intervene, that depends on who is in the WH.

 

[neverdie]

There are technical inaccuracies within this article , but the notion of China preemptively hitting US assets without Taiwan and USA being in any kind of formal defense agreement is asinine. Because this move would be an equivalent to Japan attack on Pearl Harbour, completely removing any strategic ambiguity , getting bipartisan support within the US , and basically ensuring that China would be bombed into the stone age and most of its fleet destroyed. There would be no other outcome, even if it takes a while. If they invade Taiwan directly, on the other hand, the US may or may not intervene, that depends on who is in the WH.

i don't think so. if the us signals it will intervene then china will absolutely be willing to hit us assets that could intervene. it's been planning for that exact contingency. and how do you bomb china into the stone age? it has nuclear weapons too. are you going into a nuclear conflict over taiwan which you barely even recognise as an island under the one china policy. it's not that china would want to hit us assets, it's that they would do so if they thought they had to. makes it all very risky.

many different reasons why maintaining the status quo and allowing the chinese and taiwanese to sort this out themselves over time makes sense for all involved.

 

[The Firestarter]

i don't think so. if the us signals it will intervene then china will absolutely be willing to hit us assets that could intervene. it's been planning for that exact contingency. and how do you bomb china into the stone age? it has nuclear weapons too. are you going into a nuclear conflict over taiwan which you barely even recognise as an island under the one china policy. it's not that china would want to hit us assets, it's that they would do so if they thought they had to. makes it all very risky.

many different reasons why maintaining the status quo and allowing the chinese and taiwanese to sort this out themselves over time makes sense for all involved.

If China attack the US ships / bases first, make no mistake the coastal areas that have air bases and everything with a radar will be bombed into the ground, with conventional weapons. Mostly coming from B2, F35, initially. China has a limited nuclear arsenal , which serves as a deterrent against nuclear first strike. It does not have a counterforce capability , what it can do is target largest US cities. So they'd rather not use it and keep their country, although very humiliated, compared to going nuclear first and basically ending the organised society in China (because US have several times more warheads)

 

[neverdie]

If China attack the US ships / bases first, make no mistake the coastal areas that have air bases and everything with a radar will be bombed into the ground, with conventional weapons. Mostly coming from B2, F35, initially. China has a limited nuclear arsenal , which serves as a deterrent against nuclear first strike. It does not have a counterforce capability , what it can do is target largest US cities. So they'd rather not use it and keep their country, although very humiliated, compared to going nuclear first and basically ending the organised society in China (because US have several times more warheads)

yeah but what it can do is trigger a wipeout of south korea and japan. and hit some coastal american regions. anyway china only hits us ships and bases if the us is signalling that it's going to intervene. i don't think the us would intervene for the same reason that china doesn't want to hit us assets. both sides lose far more than they gain. if war looks likely between china and taiwan, the first thing i'd expect is to see the us move whatever carrier groups it has near taiwan away from it. or to signal in some other way that they're not getting involved.

 

[Buster15]

I can't help wondering whether there has been some collusion between Russia and China here.

Both orchestrating to occupy and distract the US and the West with 2 major conflicts.
Ukraine first and then Taiwan.
Can the US and the West possibly sustain both at the same time?.
Or would it be forced to compromise one or the other.

Dangerous times indeed.

 

[Foxbatt]

i think also look at how many US and EU troops have been sent into Ukraine

Sure they might say they will sell Taiwan arms - but getting them landed in a warzone / blockade will be pretty much impossible (again we are sending things by road / rail into Ukraine no boats and planes)

I don't see any troops being sent to the region and no real resupply of arms taking place

If China wants to invade Taiwan they will and nobody will stop them

Again the UN dont recognise Taiwan as a soverign nation (infact only a handful of countries do)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-taiwan

Basically nobody is gonna F with china over Taiwan

Yes and some people do not seem to understand that Taiwan also has no legal territory. The UN accepted mainland China as the one China policy and that Taiwan is also part of China. So do Taiwan as well. They only disagree who is in power for the One China.

 

[Cal?]

Most Taiwanese and a lot of Chinese accept the current status quo. Taiwan under the KMT had decent relations with mainland China. What is also odd was the under the KMT, Taiwan was invited and hosted by The Chinese at many international conferences under the auspices of the UN. Under the DPP, it was the exact opposite as DPP favors independence from China. China would not invade but do an economic sanctions first. Look at what happened in HK? The PLA did not invade but everything has quietened down and this is how the Chinese would deal with Taiwan. It is best that outsiders do not get involved in the internal matters of other countries.

That's the most ludicrous stance I've ever read on the matter. Hong Kong is being ruled by China (as much as I hate it), the police force is fully on China's side so there was never a need for the PLA to "invade" Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has quietened down because of the draconian National Security Law that was forced onto HK and people are being arrested left, right & centre for things they used to take for granted.

There's no way for China to deal with Taiwan other than an invasion, US & Japan will not let them do it.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

That's the most ludicrous stance I've ever read on the matter. Hong Kong is being ruled by China (as much as I hate it), the police force is fully on China's side so there was never a need for the PLA to "invade" Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has quietened down because of the draconian National Security Law that was forced onto HK and people are being arrested left, right & centre for things they used to take for granted.

There's no way for China to deal with Taiwan other than an invasion, US & Japan will not let them do it.

And let's not forget the role of COVID in this mess in Hong Kong as well.

 

[Foxbatt]

That's the most ludicrous stance I've ever read on the matter. Hong Kong is being ruled by China (as much as I hate it), the police force is fully on China's side so there was never a need for the PLA to "invade" Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has quietened down because of the draconian National Security Law that was forced onto HK and people are being arrested left, right & centre for things they used to take for granted.

There's no way for China to deal with Taiwan other than an invasion, US & Japan will not let them do it.

Exactly and most western people expected the PLA to march into HK. They didn't and China will strike economically. Even now lot of Taiwanese are worried about this. They don't want anything to disrupt their lives. They don't care about independence. It's only the Americans and the current ruling party and the Japanese who are interested in this.

 

[neverdie]

i don't agree with the entire premise of the article which is that "biden wants war with china" but do agree with the idea that the biden administration is likely happy to provoke china into invading taiwan. that won't be a state of war between the us and china but will be bad news for china in the shortterm in terms of international fallout and trade relations.

US President Joe Biden knows full well, and China has warned publicly, that if the United States repudiates the One China policy, thus effectively recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation, China will retake the island militarily. And Biden himself has pledged to go to war against China if that happens.

In other words, the Biden administration is carrying out a course of action that it consciously knows will lead to a military conflict with the world’s most populous country. Biden wants, de facto or de jure, a state of war with China, which is regarded in Washington as the greatest threat to American global domination.

In March of last year, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Biden instructed the “Department of Defense to hold China as its pacing challenge.” Blinken added, “China is the only country with the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to seriously challenge the stable and open international system.”

The US geopolitical motivations for going to war with China were laid out by Elbridge Colby, the principal author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, who declared on Twitter Tuesday that a conflict with China over Taiwan “makes sense for Americans’ concrete economic interests.”

Unless China is contained militarily, Colby warns of a future in which “China will have a controlling influence over more than 50 percent of global GDP. It will be the gatekeeper and the center of the global economy.” And, “the yuan will be the dominant currency.”

In his 2021 book The Strategy of Denial, Colby advocates a policy of goading China into military action. “Perhaps the clearest and sometimes the most important way of making sure China is seen this way [as the aggressor] is simply by ensuring that it is the one to strike first. Few human moral intuitions are more deeply rooted than that the one who started it is the aggressor and accordingly the one who presumptively owns a greater share of moral responsibility.”

In other words, the United States is seeking to identify all of China’s “red lines,” cross them, and then pretend to be surprised when China responds with military action.

full article: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/08/04/erpq-a04.html

personally, i think the dems long wanted a de facto state of war with russia and the gop long wanted a de facto state of war with china. which is a shorthand way of summarizing the us policy of simultaneous containment of both russia and china but each front advocated for by different symbolic figureheads. that's the cynical outlook but also highly probable. that the us plays a game to induce each into a war neither really wants. more controversial in the russian case but won't be the least bit controversial should it recur in the chinese case.

 

[hmchan]

I'm no military expert so I'll leave this matter on you guys, but as a Hongkonger who had lived and worked in Taiwan for a year, I'm stunned to some of the comments here.

@Foxbatt has clearly underestimated Taiwan people's hatred towards China. Why Taiwan people vote for the DPP which favors independence, instead of the KMT which represents status quo and has decent relationship with China? It's funny you choose to refer to polls, instead of official elections in a democratic region.

China has never issued economic sanctions on Hong Kong. Everything quietened down because of the restriction order due to COVID. The government later took advantage and implemented the National Security Law, which allowed the arrests of democratic representatives. I don't see how the same can happen in Taiwan.

"Wrong party in power", "not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries"...Are you the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson or one who is brainwashed by him? DPP is democratically elected and you think you know better than Taiwan people themselves? It's fine to have different stances, but let's not rewrite history.

@RedDevilQuebecois is also right. Saving face and avoiding shame are particularly important in China, and the CCP has a habit to make use of international affairs to unite its people when it faces its own internal crisis (e.g. COVID, Henan bank protests, "rotten-tail buildings", etc.). It's no surprise they make a show on this occassion.

 

[hmchan]

I believe Hong Kong independence always polled slightly higher circa 20% but then that makes sense given the history.

Not sure the situations are comparable really but could well impact the appetite for some form of unification.

I think it's a generational issue that impacts even China itself. There's a lot of the older generation that have gone through a lot where as the youngsters now don't have those ties nor prior hardships. They're looking forward to the next progression which is going to less control and more democracy. The political narrative to Taiwan will soften in time when the base that favours it does out.

Exactly. This is why China is becoming more and more worried.

 

[Beans]

I have read that Taiwan is prepared to construct a nuclear device if they see China mobilizing for invasion, and that they can do so faster than the many months that mobilization would take.

So hopefully this will act as a further deterrent.

 

[Red the Bear]

Taiwan has been its own country and culture developing since 1949. According to a poll from June 2020, only 23.4% preferred maintaining the status quo while 12.5% favored unification with China, and those numbers are projected to keep on dwindling even further.


Feck Nixon. The world lives in a far different reality from 50 years ago, especially a lot more since February 24.

What nixon did was pure brilliance at the time driving a sharp wedge in the already deteriorating sino/soviet relations but everything after the soviet collapse has been a disaster, it was pure foolishness for us to prop a potential adversary after their strategic importance having dried up, we never should have moved so much of our industry over there.
An alternative is propping up india and putting them shoving them to face off China but that would come with it's own slew of problems like potential armed conflict with Pakistan which is simply unethical (like most things in politics) and simply put disastrous.

 

[Rajma]

 

[stevoc]

I can't help wondering whether there has been some collusion between Russia and China here.

Both orchestrating to occupy and distract the US and the West with 2 major conflicts.
Ukraine first and then Taiwan.
Can the US and the West possibly sustain both at the same time?.
Or would it be forced to compromise one or the other.

Dangerous times indeed.

Almost certainly to some extent, but given how things are going for Russia in Ukraine I doubt China will be emboldened to launch an invasion of Taiwan anytime soon. I imagine China ideally want control of the island both for political and strategic reasons but I doubt they want it enough to risk conflict with the US + Allies.

 

[Cal?]

Exactly and most western people expected the PLA to march into HK. They didn't and China will strike economically. Even now lot of Taiwanese are worried about this. They don't want anything to disrupt their lives. They don't care about independence. It's only the Americans and the current ruling party and the Japanese who are interested in this.

The point is that China has no option other than military if they want to annex Taiwan, what they can do economically will NOT force Taiwan to surrender.

The majority of Taiwanese prefer status quo, they are already independent, they have thein own government, military, elections, currency, passport, etc. The vast majority do NOT want to surrender to CCP rule.

 

[Cal?]

I'm no military expert so I'll leave this matter on you guys, but as a Hongkonger who had lived and worked in Taiwan for a year, I'm stunned to some of the comments here.

@Foxbatt has clearly underestimated Taiwan people's hatred towards China. Why Taiwan people vote for the DPP which favors independence, instead of the KMT which represents status quo and has decent relationship with China? It's funny you choose to refer to polls, instead of official elections in a democratic region.

China has never issued economic sanctions on Hong Kong. Everything quietened down because of the restriction order due to COVID. The government later took advantage and implemented the National Security Law, which allowed the arrests of democratic representatives. I don't see how the same can happen in Taiwan.

"Wrong party in power", "not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries"...Are you the Foreign Ministry Spokesperson or one who is brainwashed by him? DPP is democratically elected and you think you know better than Taiwan people themselves? It's fine to have different stances, but let's not rewrite history.

@RedDevilQuebecois is also right. Saving face and avoiding shame are particularly important in China, and the CCP has a habit to make use of international affairs to unite its people when it faces its own internal crisis (e.g. COVID, Henan bank protests, "rotten-tail buildings", etc.). It's no surprise they make a show on this occassion.

Well said, funny how @Foxbatt always sides with the CCP

 

[Smores]

Exactly. This is why China is becoming more and more worried.

Worried because of the instabilities that causes yeah but it's the same reason they won't actually invade Taiwan. All China cares about is economic growth and internal stability. They talk tough because it serves it's purpose to a certain audience but they don't actually have to act because they're not appeasing voters, not acting isn't creating an added tension. It's more a pride issue that they can't yet let go, in 20 years that won't exist.

I think people take the words of politicians too seriously, each party involved in this including the US benefits from talking tough but none of them want to change the status quo.

That said there's obviously situations under which China may attack so it's not without concern. These things escalate from small roots.

 

[GazTheLegend]

This situation is terrifying. One misstep - one failed missile, one crashed jet, one itchy trigger finger - and it could easily escalate to world war 3 because the American strike group simply will not sit and watch as their entire semiconductor industry is torn apart piece by piece.

The current drills are clearly nothing more than a precursor to a full blown invasion in the near future anyway, and Pelosi's visit was nothing more than an excuse - one the Chinese were itching to have to begin with. And it's something that feels inevitable.

The one thing I don't understand is the timescale. From my perspective China was only getting stronger exponentially year by year and 10-20 years down the line the Western military would be eclipsed by the endless chain of equipment that China is capable of producing - even without the experience to use them, the logistics alone dwarf ours. But right now the Americans with ourselves probably still edge them in equipment and completely outclass them with experience. Why fight now? The FBI and Mi6 seem well aware that this was all going to happen, but the question is - if the drills end on Sunday - where do we go from here.

Scary times.

 

[Buster15]

Almost certainly to some extent, but given how things are going for Russia in Ukraine I doubt China will be emboldened to launch an invasion of Taiwan anytime soon. I imagine China ideally want control of the island both for political and strategic reasons but I doubt they want it enough to risk conflict with the US + Allies.

That is right. And it is important that the US and its allies make their profound opposition to any armed aggression against Taiwan very clear.

But it can not be permitted to take away the focus on support to Ukraine by the NATO allies. And there is always the danger of that happening should China increase its activities around the island of Taiwan.

 

[utdalltheway]

This situation is terrifying. One misstep - one failed missile, one crashed jet, one itchy trigger finger - and it could easily escalate to world war 3 because the American strike group simply will not sit and watch as their entire semiconductor industry is torn apart piece by piece….

The one thing I don't understand is the timescale. From my perspective China was only getting stronger exponentially year by year and 10-20 years down the line the Western military would be eclipsed by the endless chain of equipment that China is capable of producing….

Scary times.

Scary indeed. I picked a weird time for my 1st ever transition through Taipei’s airport yesterday. I was watching out the airplane window for missile trails.
tbh the US is kinda screwed. They need to shift all their business out of China, as they’re only making an enemy stronger, but by the time they do the Chinese will already have caught up with them militarily, at least in some respects.
I think whatever’s going on right now will blow over as the Chinese are not ready to take on the US. But when they are….

 

[Foxbatt]

Well said, funny how @Foxbatt always sides with the CCP

Why should I side with the USA? I have nothing against the Chinese so far. They have not invaded or bombed any country that has my family or relationship. I am all for Taiwan independence if they would declare it openly and change their constitution. They cannot lay claim to the whole of mainland china then But let's have a universal stand on independence. Crimea, Catelonia, Scotland, Taiwan, Kashmir etc.