Firstly, we have no idea what Jassim was offering or how it was sctructured. Only reports of what it might have been.
The fact is that the Glazers value the club currently at about 6bn pounds, which neither offer gets close to. It has also been widely reported that they believe the value will continue to increase significantly over the next 5 years, to the point where they think it will be worth 10bn. This through better activation of individual fans around the world, mobile streaming rights in emerging markets, the next round of TV deals, and their belief in the eventual lift of the 3pm blackout on domestic rights.
Given the club was worth 790m when they bought it, and this latest partial sale values it at 4.4bn, means that there is plenty of growth in this “brand”. But more importantly, is how they see it. That there is much, much more value to be realised.
They will clearly exit at some point. The reason they bought it in the first place, was to eventually exit. They just don’t think they’ve maximised, or even close, the value yet.
Selling a 25% stake means they can get some outside investment in. 300m immediately. It also means they have a shareholder partner that has a huge net worth and that increases their ability to borrow at favourable terms. They clearly recognise that to take the next step, outside investment is needed. So they will piecemeal this out.
They’ll probably sell another 25% when it comes time to completely revamp or rebuild OT. Bringing more outside investment in. And then finally sell their remaining shareholding once they feel full value has been realised. Probably once the club is worth 7-10bn.
That’s their likely plan anyway. Jim is bringing with him the funds to revamp the training ground. And probably inject some transfer capital too. They’ve given him sporting control because he has more experience and passion in that area and if he is successful, then their shareholding value will only increase. It’s win/win for them.
They will exit, it’s just a question of when. And I suspect it’ll take another 4-6 years for them to be fully out.
There’s a lot of talk about the Sheik’s deal being worth 31 a share, but somehow 5.2bn. You only get to 5.2bn in pounds if you add the 800-900m he promised to invest, into the value of the deal. And if they were selling everything, why would the Glazer’s give a single shit about that? They have never cared about what’s good for the club.
At the end of the day, they’d rather sell 25% at a 4.4bn valuation. 25% at a 6bn valuation. 25% at an 8bn valuation etc etc. Their entire strategy always has, and always will, bank on ever increasing valuation increases.
This deal allows them to sell the minimum amount they need to at the current valuation - which is lower than what they ultimately want - get much needed investment into infrastructure, bring on a powerful partner, retain ultimate control, and take themselves out of the firing line on the sporting side. The work Arnold did to separate the sporting and commercial side was almost certainly done with this sort of deal in mind. I’m just not sure he realised it. Which is probably why he left on bad terms.
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