How much of the club will the Glazers actually own once this goes through
Assuming Ratcliffe buys 25% of the class A and 25% of the class B Shares.
113 million Class B shares equals 28.25m
53 million Class A shares equals 13.25m
Assuming the Glazers own 6.9% of the class A shares which is widely reported and they are selling 25% of their 3.657m which is 914,000. They would own 84.75m class B shares and 2.75m Class A shares.
This equates to 52.7% still a majority with A and B shares.
Sir Jim 25% and the minority share holders would now reduce to 23.3%. This will be the breakdown unless new shares are created for the additional investment that INEOS have agreed.
You have to assume that INEOS and the Glazers have agreed that the 28.25m class B shares also retain their 10 times voting rights and they must have offered $40 which is $1.130 Bn and the class B at $530m total of $1.680 billion which is £1.35 billion subject to Exchange rate.
I have a feeling that any future club investment may result in short term share dilution of all share holders as they simply may issue an increase in the amount of shares in the short term, meaning the value is initially lower per share only for the value to raise when Investment in infrastructure, stadium and the team on the pitch are proven to be successful.
This could Mean that in 2/3 years, after a £0.7 billion investment from INEOS which may result in a ‘Stock Split’ therefore increasing INEOS by another 8% in shares ownership, probably with an agreement that half are Class A and Half Class B potentially meaning that in 2025-26 the total shares may be as follows;
117.5m Class B shares and 55.5m Class A shares.
INEOS would now own 32.75m class B
Glazers still own 84.75m Class B
Total 117.5m
INEOS would now own 15.75m class A
The Glazers 2.75m Class A
Minority 37m Class A
Total 55.5m
Overall total 173m shares
Percentage owned;
Glazers 50.6%
INEOS 29.2%
Minority 20.2%
It’s important to note that on the NYSE after a ‘Stock Split’ the price per share adjust downwards so there is an equal valuation and both the Glazers and minority share holder shares will be diluted and lose value initially.
The additional £1 billion investment promised will be for more chunks of the club with added percentages until Sir Jim can activate a full buy out maybe in 2028-2029.
When you look at this in detail the Goblin’s retain absolute power or control for at least another 2-3 years with the caveat that Sir Jim controls the football side and a sum of £700-800m should be enough from INEOS to pay off some of the debt, fix infrastructure and modernise the training complex whilst at the same time making better off and on field decisions that free up more money for more sensible transfers.
The stadium, contrary to popular opinion is a self financing project which INEOS can partner with Mercedes, spend the
£1-1.25bn and repay the investment by using the increased Matchday revenue to pay the payments of the loan through INEOS over a 20 year period at £60-75m per, plus this has no effect on FSP/FFP going forward.
A new shiny stadium orca major renovation could actually be made possible just by paying off £200m of the £550m legacy debt used to buy the club by the Glazers in 2005.
Sir Jim really did give the Glazers everything and more that they wanted and in 2029 if the club is worth £10bn with a shiny new 90,000 all seater stadium they’ll probably get another $6.5bn to go with the $1.2 they will get this year.
All of this while someone else invests into the club to bring back the glory days, the Glazers are the skurge of our club but they have played SJ and 92 Foundation with the promise of 100% sale, something that was clearly never an option!
The Glazers played a blinder, while getting INEOS to give them everything they wanted and more, the club was clearly never up for sale from day one unless someone paid an obscene amount of money?
