Club Sale | It’s done!

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I have got this instinct that Jassim is going to place this next bid. I am not keen on Jacobs, but it was he who said a fifth bid is coming. It was then Keegan who said after that fifth increase was made "this is the take it or leave it offer." Jacobs does have experience and links in Qatar.

It was after this, that made me take Jacobs a bit more seriously in relation to this saga. Also, remember Jacobs was the first to come out and say that the process was still ongoing the very same night the Mail on Sunday story broke about the club being taken off the market.
For the record I’ll think your find he lives in Qatar part of the year and US the rest so he’s very close to the source material.

We should give him some credit as when people were saying this was done back in June/July he said no and made it clear that the Glazers want more money whilst at the same time quoting his famous line; “The Glazers remain determined sellers, but only at the right price!”

It’s nearly 12 months now so the process has to come to a conclusion. INEOS have obviously been told they have to appease the minority share holders and it’s clearly that Jimmy Brexit just wants to get his feet under the table, say he’s the chairmen of Man United as a lifetime ambition and he’ll do everything he can to make that happen including telling multiple lies, he’ll lie to the Glazers, he’ll lie to the Class A shareholders and he’ll lie to the fans, however he’ll still be 1000% better than the Goblins because he won’t take dividends and he will want best in class. I still think he’s too far behind the SJ/92 Foundation who we now know is a state bid, irrespective of all the cloak and daggers.

They will not want to lose, PSG is becoming an issue and they also know they need to act quickly, the club is only an attractive asset if it plays in the Champions League and right now if we were to fast forward to the end of the season, United finish somewhere between 8th and 12th.

If they can move by mid November where an actual contractual agreement is in place, the EpL fit and proper test completed, Nine Two Foundation may have 23/24 games this season and a January transfer window to influence the rest of the season. Somewhere at the back of the 92 Foundation minds, may also be the fear that the other 19 EPL teams are trying to prevent any new owners of a PL team having state influences and they are trying to ratify that into legislation asap.

They now know they can’t buy the club at the current bid, so they have to increase the bid if they genuinely desire it, maybe to £5.7-5.8bn to buy the Glazers B class voting shares.

SJ/92 Foundation can then buy the rest of the minority shares 3-6 months later and delist the club from NYSE. Neil Custis went early, the Cardiff Chairmen who has previously worked with the Glazers on the original LBO, was confident of a £7.3bn deal in November for 100% purchase of the club not just the Glazers shares, the maths add up.

It really is starting to make too much sense which is why it probably won’t happen for another 6/9 months?
 
I mentioned on this forum back in May I think it was I had contact with someone who knows someone very senior at INEOS and they have been working on the deal since before "strategic alternatives" was announced, I was told 18 months before and that the deal would take many months but its pretty much a foregone conclusion, they also said SJ feels like its been set up to extract more cash from INEOS.

Second source I spoke to, probably around a month or so ago, or whenever the Tour De France was, separate person, someone very close to me, very well respected in cycling and was there reporting on team INEOS spoke to "someone" high up, told them November, they are buying the club and "these things take time".

Take as you will, but that's where my confidence comes from. Both from INEOS side of things so that could be a factor but both separately said its INEOS and not "if" but "when". For what its worth id prefer 9-2 and SJ so I wasn't too pleased.

I do respect your insight however the numbers don’t add up I’ll explain;

If INEOS are in the lead they would have to do the following;

1. Make a $34-36 offer for 50 million A class shares so they could delist from NYSE. They can’t afford this right now even with their blue chip covenant.


2. If they do this why on earth would they keep any Glazers in a complexed M&A put and Call deal, there’s no longer the need to do now they have to bid 100% like SJ, if they do this there’s only ever going to be one winner!

3. If he wishes just to take control, offer a higher premium for 51% of the Class B shares, which means he would buy 51-52% of the 113 million Class B Voting share. So he would buy 58 million shares from the six Glazer Siblings at, let’s say $40 per share which is $2.3bn(£1.88bn) then offer a huge premium to all six glazers for them to relinquish control, this was why when it was discussed 2 wanted to stay and the other 4 leave it was a complete non starter because you are not just buying the Glazer’s B class shares but also their control of the clubs assets and all 6 want the same reimbursement to agree to relinquish control.

His offer was rumoured to be placing the 69% stake of the Glazers at about £5.2/5.3bn so he was offering £2.6-2.7bn for control of the club with all 6 glazers staying and retaining approximately between 4 and 8% each dependent on their share allocation.

INEOS we’re trying and still are to take control of the club by strong arming the Glazers and telling them we’ll give you £2.7bn now so £500-600m now each and then in two years when we fix it you can have even more than you expected.

INEOS also offered a premium to buy the Glazers controlling stake, a value of money in addition to the enterprise share value, this is built into the M&A put and call contract, which is ridiculously complexed.

If this actually happened all the reports saying Jimmy Brexit would own 51%, the Glazers 18% and the minority 31% were wrong, that version may also exist where INEOS bought 70% of the Glazers shares not 50-52%, but they may have valued their shares at at lower sum of £5.1/5.15bn.

INEOS are the main reason the takeover has taken so long, because in a straight out fight to buy 100% of the club they lose every time, they had to get creative to have a chance, but all they’ve done is make the dithering Glazers even more confused than they were before the process started.

If ETH looks like the second coming, you’d always choose INEOS, if he can’t get in the CL 2 years running, you’d bail out while you can at the optimum price offered.
 
I remember your update and while I viewed with the typical criticism of seeing breaking news on a football forum, it didn't sound crazy.

However, while INEOS may believe they've 'won' and it's about extracting more money from them, it could equally be the opposite and this is about getting Qatar to pay up.

Also, your source talks about discussions going back before formal announcement. This suggests to me the parties to that discussion were the two troglodytes and we know there are (supposedly) issues of dissent within the family on the best course of action. There's also the topic of class A shareholders and them willing to litigate their way to a Qatar sale.

What I'm saying is that your story might be true based on what INEOS believe but the reality might be different (or not, who knows). What I am saying is I agree with your conclusion and thanks for bringing us info.
Solid summary and most fans probably share your view
 
So if/when the Qatar bid is accepted and they become our new owners, who will you support then ? genuinely curious

No, I'll never support a dictatorship just as I never supported the Glazers.

Always love United.

Solid summary and most fans probably share your view

I just can't see how Ineos think they can win, or have won.

They either have something up their sleeve or are just plain delusional.
 
Pretty sure that I heard the Bank of America want their money back in full by '25, and it can't be refinanced, from the INEOS perspective its looking complicated, they would surely have to take on the debt, that's as well as the problematic 31 percent shareholders wanting their slice, no wonder SJ and the 92f are confident, its pretty much all there for them, despite the Glazers seemingly holding out for more, this is just going one way.


Plus many fans forget this ;

https://www.reuters.com/markets/dea...h-qatars-sheikh-jassim-6-bln-plus-2023-06-15/

There is a video on the Reuters website as well that words it very much like exclusivity was granted however never ever reported in the British media. The Fit and Proper Directors test should not be an issue, when Newcastle and City have no current issues. Three months ago would lead us to sone form of a conclusion within the 2-4 weeks.
 
I do respect your insight however the numbers don’t add up I’ll explain;

If INEOS are in the lead they would have to do the following;

1. Make a $34-36 offer for 50 million A class shares so they could delist from NYSE. They can’t afford this right now even with their blue chip covenant.


2. If they do this why on earth would they keep any Glazers in a complexed M&A put and Call deal, there’s no longer the need to do now they have to bid 100% like SJ, if they do this there’s only ever going to be one winner!

3. If he wishes just to take control, offer a higher premium for 51% of the Class B shares, which means he would buy 51-52% of the 113 million Class B Voting share. So he would buy 58 million shares from the six Glazer Siblings at, let’s say $40 per share which is $2.3bn(£1.88bn) then offer a huge premium to all six glazers for them to relinquish control, this was why when it was discussed 2 wanted to stay and the other 4 leave it was a complete non starter because you are not just buying the Glazer’s B class shares but also their control of the clubs assets and all 6 want the same reimbursement to agree to relinquish control.

His offer was rumoured to be placing the 69% stake of the Glazers at about £5.2/5.3bn so he was offering £2.6-2.7bn for control of the club with all 6 glazers staying and retaining approximately between 4 and 8% each dependent on their share allocation.

INEOS we’re trying and still are to take control of the club by strong arming the Glazers and telling them we’ll give you £2.7bn now so £500-600m now each and then in two years when we fix it you can have even more than you expected.

INEOS also offered a premium to buy the Glazers controlling stake, a value of money in addition to the enterprise share value, this is built into the M&A put and call contract, which is ridiculously complexed.

If this actually happened all the reports saying Jimmy Brexit would own 51%, the Glazers 18% and the minority 31% were wrong, that version may also exist where INEOS bought 70% of the Glazers shares not 50-52%, but they may have valued their shares at at lower sum of £5.1/5.15bn.

INEOS are the main reason the takeover has taken so long, because in a straight out fight to buy 100% of the club they lose every time, they had to get creative to have a chance, but all they’ve done is make the dithering Glazers even more confused than they were before the process started.

If ETH looks like the second coming, you’d always choose INEOS, if he can’t get in the CL 2 years running, you’d bail out while you can at the optimum price offered.

Yeah it's a tangled mess right now isn't it, but this is why I think there is some confidence on the iNEOS side of things, they have some relationship with the Glazers already and SJR has indicated to us before he's met them many times, so there is likely a personal relationship to try and work through some of the issues you have raised.

As with all businesses, there is a way through, they can agree to all kinds of ridiculous structures that work for each party.

I think the ultimate issue and what I've thought all along is the glazers are happy to wait to hash out a deal or structure that works for them. I don't believe that INEOS are interested in strong-arming the glazers which is ultimately why it's taking so long, it could carry on for months if not years as they figure it out.

That's why I think in the short term we could hear about a small investment like 500m investment from INEOS and maybe not even a stake in the club but opens the business relationship, announce something and then indicates which way they will go then they will take 2 or 3 years to slowly buy more on an agreeable term as the club gradually increases in value or at least the Glazers hope.
 
The debt has to be repaid in full to the Bank of America by 2025 doesn't it? If that is the case then they are most likely selling up, and most likely to Qatar.
Is this correct? why would they bring it to this point without being anywhere near able to to pay it and have to sell?
 
Is this correct? why would they bring it to this point without being anywhere near able to to pay it and have to sell?

I think the poster is refereeing to the terms of the loan are due for renewal in 2025 - not that the debt has a deadline to be repaid then.

On a separate note, aren't the financial results due out this week?
 
Is this correct? why would they bring it to this point without being anywhere near able to to pay it and have to sell?
Because those idiots probably thought interest rates would remain at zero forever and thus they'd be able to refinance ad infinitum.
 
Is this correct? why would they bring it to this point without being anywhere near able to to pay it and have to sell?

That's what I don't understand. If the club increases in value (I doubt it if they're still here) they will have to pay it out of the increase or if it doesn't it will come out of their pocket so why not just take the 5.5b and feck off!
 
Yeah it's a tangled mess right now isn't it, but this is why I think there is some confidence on the iNEOS side of things, they have some relationship with the Glazers already and Sir James Arthur Ratcliffe FIChemE has indicated to us before he's met them many times, so there is likely a personal relationship to try and work through some of the issues you have raised.

As with all businesses, there is a way through, they can agree to all kinds of ridiculous structures that work for each party.

I think the ultimate issue and what I've thought all along is the glazers are happy to wait to hash out a deal or structure that works for them. I don't believe that INEOS are interested in strong-arming the glazers which is ultimately why it's taking so long, it could carry on for months if not years as they figure it out.

That's why I think in the short term we could hear about a small investment like 500m investment from INEOS and maybe not even a stake in the club but opens the business relationship, announce something and then indicates which way they will go then they will take 2 or 3 years to slowly buy more on an agreeable term as the club gradually increases in value or at least the Glazers hope.


On a scale of 1 to 10 now of whose going to buy the club short term, mid term or long term I would give INEOS a 2.5/10 chance and SJ/92 Foundation 7.5/10, that’s based on what I’ve heard from traders and more importantly the information fed by Reuters and Bloomberg, they don’t use hyperbole to gain clicks on websites, they just report the facts from a business point of view and too many of these people have said INEOS have very little chance of buying the club.
 
I think the poster is refereeing to the terms of the loan are due for renewal in 2025 - not that the debt has a deadline to be repaid then.

On a separate note, aren't the financial results due out this week?

Correct on both points, however to renew the debt with a mid term solution of say 15-20 years would incur initially huge interest rates.
This will affect the overall balance sheet and more importantly with a planned reduction to FSP rules of 70% by the summer 2025, United will find it almost impossible to buy itself out of trouble with signing new players, especially if they are servicing £1bn worth of financial debt, all be it, that some of that debt is likely Amortised transfer debt and has a different type of interest charge structure.

Genuinely the club will be in bleak straits if new owners are not in by Summer 2024.

1. Even if revenue is £650m this year we can only spend 80% of that line on Player transfers, Financials, wages, expenses,Agent fees, existing Amortised transfer debt next summer.
2. That’s £520m maximum threshold
3. Assuming wages of £320m, Financial debt of £80m including servicing the debt and existing amortised transfer of approximately £80m per year since the club owe over £300m to other European clubs and most contracts are 4-5 years.
4. The club qualify for Europe, my guess is that the expenses for every away game is nearly £1m without the Glazers deciding to chatter planes at £500,000 per trip for Joel to have a jolly up in London.
5. No money for 19th year running invested by the owner and they will succumb to FFP fines or worse, an International transfer ban.

Summary if they stay, the scrambling of signing Weghorst and Sabitzer last January and the inability to pay £21-24m for Sofran Amrabat this summer will look the good old days when United were rich!
 
On a scale of 1 to 10 now of whose going to buy the club short term, mid term or long term I would give INEOS a 2.5/10 chance and SJ/92 Foundation 7.5/10, that’s based on what I’ve heard from traders and more importantly the information fed by Reuters and Bloomberg, they don’t use hyperbole to gain clicks on websites, they just report the facts from a business point of view and too many of these people have said INEOS have very little chance of buying the club.
If anything, you are being generous with INEOS' chances. Imo, they have essentially no chance of moving forward unless they compromise their stance and take one of the following approaches:

  • 100% buyout: Highly unlikely they are willing/able to pony up a valuation higher than the Qataris under this structure.
  • Minority investment: Also highly unlikely because I don't think INEOS would be keen to pony up the money and let demonstrable buffoons Joel and Avram still call the shots, despite continuing to invest a total of 0 Glazer Bucks. Conversely, the Glazers (Joel and Avram) want to run United their way and want access to the funds without being told how to run their business. I doubt they'd want to give INEOS any meaningful influence in decision making. Not to mention, if 4 Glazers truly are done with United and want out now, this does not help them.
  • Control without full buyout: They would have to get very creative for this to work, because if they try to snub the Class A shareholders in this kind of arrangement, there will be lawsuits and it will be a headache for INEOS and the Glazers. They need a situation that buys out the Class A shareholders, while either partially buying out all Glazers or fully buying out 4 (keeping Joel & Avram) AND still letting Joel and Avram have significant influence. I don't think INEOS are crazy enough to agree to this and I think it will be very difficult to get all 6 Glazers onside with it.

I believe that INEOS believe they are in position to close a deal, but I don't believe that is the reality of the situation. It has seemed for some time now that the Glazers and Raine intend to string both bidders along to the very end.
 
INEOS or Qatar would be better than what we have now. Qatar I've never wanted, but at this point if I'm going to get fecked, I'd at least want a nice kiss on the cheek and some flowers, than the dry drilling I've been getting of the Glazers for over a decade.
 
INEOS has never been a realistic option except in the greed deluded minds of Joel and Avram Glazer and possibly not even there. Ratcliffe has shown he is the enemy of evey Manchester United fan by keeping his diseased bid on the table. He has no chance of buying the club and his reputation is damaged by the harm the process is doing.
 
INEOS has never been a realistic option except in the greed deluded minds of Joel and Avram Glazer and possibly not even there. Ratcliffe has shown he is the enemy of evey Manchester United fan by keeping his diseased bid on the table. He has no chance of buying the club and his reputation is damaged by the harm the process is doing.
Ol' Jimmy just loves the attention and attaching his name and the name of his company to Manchester United's.
 
INEOS has never been a realistic option except in the greed deluded minds of Joel and Avram Glazer and possibly not even there. Ratcliffe has shown he is the enemy of evey Manchester United fan by keeping his diseased bid on the table. He has no chance of buying the club and his reputation is damaged by the harm the process is doing.

Wouldn't say he has no chance
 
Doesn’t Ireland have a 20 billion surplus in their coffers? Most of the country supports United, they should make a bid.
 
Wouldn't say he has no chance
Unless he deviates from his reported structure, his chances are slim to none. Don't worry. :cool: I still reckon he would be a far better option than the Glazers, but he won't do what is necessary in order to buy the club to begin with.
 
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTT's TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIMMMMMMMMME!
If anything, you are being generous with INEOS' chances. Imo, they have essentially no chance of moving forward unless they compromise their stance and take one of the following approaches:

  • 100% buyout: Highly unlikely they are willing/able to pony up a valuation higher than the Qataris under this structure.
  • Minority investment: Also highly unlikely because I don't think INEOS would be keen to pony up the money and let demonstrable buffoons Joel and Avram still call the shots, despite continuing to invest a total of 0 Glazer Bucks. Conversely, the Glazers (Joel and Avram) want to run United their way and want access to the funds without being told how to run their business. I doubt they'd want to give INEOS any meaningful influence in decision making. Not to mention, if 4 Glazers truly are done with United and want out now, this does not help them.
  • Control without full buyout: They would have to get very creative for this to work, because if they try to snub the Class A shareholders in this kind of arrangement, there will be lawsuits and it will be a headache for INEOS and the Glazers. They need a situation that buys out the Class A shareholders, while either partially buying out all Glazers or fully buying out 4 (keeping Joel & Avram) AND still letting Joel and Avram have significant influence. I don't think INEOS are crazy enough to agree to this and I think it will be very difficult to get all 6 Glazers onside with it.

I believe that INEOS believe they are in position to close a deal, but I don't believe that is the reality of the situation. It has seemed for some time now that the Glazers and Raine intend to string both bidders along to the very end.

Phil Brown and James Rhodes have recently declared that Ratcliffe has said under no circumstances will he allow Joel and Avram to retain any class b voting rights. Ratcliffe knows this is unpalatable and is aware that leaves him on the back foot with the United support

Hellier, the Bloomberg journalist feels that an increase from Jassim of £350-£400 million will probably get it over the line.

I will say this for Ratcliffe, I do believe that he is under no illusion about how disgusted the United support feel towards the Glazers. He said as much in his opening declaration to buy the club. Putting the "Manchester back into Manchester United." I know that sounds a bit low rent, but think what does that connote? It says that the Glazers have ripped the soul out of the club.

I do think his method of seemingly being friendly with the Glazers is way to seize initial control. But when the time is right it will be a case of changing lanes and getting rid of them completely.

For Jassim, he was always going to appeal to the fans first and that places him in direct opposition to the Glazers. He has the power to conduct himself in that manner. He has said to us this not what you could have, it is what you should have.

It is intriguing. As I said, I do think that bubbling in the background.
 
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Phil Brown and James Rhodes have recently declared that Ratcliffe has said under no circumstances will he allow Joel and Avram to retain any class b voting rights. Ratcliffe knows this is unpalatable and is aware that leaves him on the back foot with the United support

Hellier, the Bloomberg journalist feels that an increase from Jassim of £350-£400 billion will probably get it over the line.

I will say this for Ratcliffe, I do believe that he is under no illusion about how disgusted the United support feel towards the Glazers. He said as much in his opening declaration to buy the club. Putting the "Manchester back into Manchester United." I know that sounds a bit low rent, but think what does that connote? It says that the Glazers have ripped the soul out of the club.

I do think his method of seemingly being friendly with the Glazers is way to seize initial control. But when the time is right it will be a case of changing lanes and getting rid of them completely.

For Jassim, he was always going to appeal to the fans first and that places him in direct opposition to the Glazers. He has the power to conduct himself in that manner. He has said to us this not what you could have, it is what you should have.

It is intriguing. As I said, I do think that bubbling in the background.
Ratcliffe has no intention of budging on taking complete control, which is why I believe he barely has a greater chance of buying the club than I do. I can't envision the pigheaded pair of Joel and Avram agreeing to retain shares without significant influence, and only buying out the Glazers will absolutely lead to lawsuits. I don't see a path forward for him unless he tries to buy the full 100% now, in which case I have serious doubts whether he is able or willing to beat the valuation of the Qataris. I still remain convinced the Sheikh will buy the club, but "when" is a massive question mark.
 
Wouldn't say he has no chance

His bid involves two of the Glazers persuading the other four to sell, risking a legal action from the other shareholders, so they can keep their own shares. It's pie in the sky. If by some fluke Ratcliffe acquired the club in those circumstances he would be as unpopular as the Glazers. He should fek off back to Oldham or Chelsea or wherever.
 
INEOS has never been a realistic option except in the greed deluded minds of Joel and Avram Glazer and possibly not even there. Ratcliffe has shown he is the enemy of evey Manchester United fan by keeping his diseased bid on the table. He has no chance of buying the club and his reputation is damaged by the harm the process is doing.

No chance?

If Glazers sell, he has every chance. He is the one willing to give The Glazers the best of both worlds.

Smart move for him to pay less for a controlling stake rather than buying 100% of an overvalued asset.

It doesn't matter to me a jot if The Glazers keep a small minority stake.
 
No chance?
If Glazers sell, he has every chance. He is the one willing to give The Glazers the best of both worlds.

Yeah but there isn't a single Glazer willing to sell to him and there probaby won't be. There are four Glazers willing to sell to Qatar
 
On a scale of 1 to 10 now of whose going to buy the club short term, mid term or long term I would give INEOS a 2.5/10 chance and SJ/92 Foundation 7.5/10, that’s based on what I’ve heard from traders and more importantly the information fed by Reuters and Bloomberg, they don’t use hyperbole to gain clicks on websites, they just report the facts from a business point of view and too many of these people have said INEOS have very little chance of buying the club.

Which traders are they? The stock price today is as low as it has been since takeover talk started late last year.

Dont believe all you hear from Reuters and Bloomberg. They are being fed their stories from interested and invested parties, just like most other journalists.

Remember, they told is in June the club was to be sold to Qatar immanently.
 
One of the first Tweets on this guy's feed is Saudi consortium were buying Chelsea...
To be honest, I think that's actually what's happened. I think Boehly is just a front for Saudi money.

No American businessman spends money like this and given some of the public connections between Saudi and Chelsea, I really think there's something to that conspiracy theory.
 
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