Joseunited
Full Member
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2016
- Messages
- 1,959
It's Sunday mate,everyone's entitled to a day off.No post in this thread for an hour..we are also giving it up ?
It's Sunday mate,everyone's entitled to a day off.No post in this thread for an hour..we are also giving it up ?
No post in this thread for an hour..we are also giving it up ?
I had a good chat about all this with one of the best plugged in finance journalists in the country last week who is following this closely. Their private view (based entirely on rumour and second and third hand gossip) was that Joel and Avram were blocking but there was no real route forward for them. I think that's most likely the case and they will fold at some point if the Qataris hold their nerve. Given that the Qataris must know that too they have no reason to fold first.
Surely the two Glazer brothers ‘way forward’ depends on whether they are prepared to keep ownership of there shares indefinitely, no?
If they’ve set themselves a time limit and need a resolution before then, then I’d get your point, but I’m struggling to see how they could be forced to sell.
Realistically, how real do you think is any threat (tacit or otherwise) from Qatar to walk away?
Can the four normal gifted siblings force the two leftovers to do the full sale? Or what happens if four wants the sale and two do not? No sale? And in that case, why? Isn´t the four sibling in a majority both in numbers and in total ownership percentage? How could the two stop that?
Surely the two Glazer brothers ‘way forward’ depends on whether they are prepared to keep ownership of there shares indefinitely, no?
If they’ve set themselves a time limit and need a resolution before then, then I’d get your point, but I’m struggling to see how they could be forced to sell.
Realistically, how real do you think is any threat (tacit or otherwise) from Qatar to walk away?
Not at all funny but a waste of spaceSome interesting developments:
https://luhgreedygoblincunts.com/sale-update
desperate plea for a thread ban so tired of it but feck it it's the weekend and nothing is happening so probably doesn't merit a thread ban after all is this a caf record for the longest white text post, probably not. sundays in off season suck and I am stuck with boring relatives for another 2 hours fml
Some interesting developments:
https://luhgreedygoblincunts.com/sale-update
desperate plea for a thread ban so tired of it but feck it it's the weekend and nothing is happening so probably doesn't merit a thread ban after all is this a caf record for the longest white text post, probably not. sundays in off season suck and I am stuck with boring relatives for another 2 hours fml
ahh christinaa, it'll all be grand.Not at all funny but a waste of space
I'm not sure if the other 4 Glazer siblings can somehow force Joel and Avram to sell - they probably can't from what i've heard.
They can probably force through a partial sale to Qatar which forces J&A to follow suite. But it will be messy and drawn out and requires Qatar to play ball.
a partial sale doesn’t work because that leaves the remaining Glazers with control and all the leverage
Not if they first vote through a change or find a loophole allowing them to sell their Class B shares as Class B shares.
They can probably force through a partial sale to Qatar which forces J&A to follow suite. But it will be messy and drawn out and requires Qatar to play ball. The four siblings have twice as many Class B shares as J&A and if they vote as a block can do wtf they like. If Qatar buys all that and they keep their Class B status they can dictate terms to J&A or ignore them altogether and then they get nothing.
Think about J&A options:
Sell to SJR. This only works if it is the other siblings who sell as J&A want to keep their shares. In this scenario they fight off legal action from the Class A gang, INEOS invest in the club and J&A sell for twice as much in five years time having benefitted from INEOS investment inflating value of their shares. But the other four siblings currently prefer the Qatar bid as it gives them the same money and is legally and reputationally risk free.
Block any sale. The club needs massive reinvestment and their debt model no longer works. Club sinks into mid table obscurity and their share value tanks and all six Glazers lose a load of money and still get sued by the shareholders. Not going to happen.
Block Qatar. They can do this up to a point but if the four other siblings want it then they can go nuclear and find a way to sell their Class B shares and cut out J&A.
Fek about. J&A can fek about in a legally watertight way till Qatar loses patience and walks away but that seems like it won't happen. If they do walk away then J&A position is much better because the INEOS bid is the only one on the table and the legal case by the Class A shareholders disappears. This is where we currently are but it's not sustainable for ever.
So it all hinges on Qatar staying in the game and the four siblings preferring them. If J&A were to do something blue sky like guarantee any legal liabilities over a SJR sale then they could potentially get the four on board. So let's get out the calculator.
There are currently 54,537,360 Class A shares, and 110,207,613 of the more powerful Class B shares. So at the leaked $38 per share that's $2 billion of Class A shares that the INEOS deal would be effectively rendering worth much less - and potentially worth nothing in certain circumstances. Are J&A going to underwrite that risk? I would say not given that they are only there for the payday and are ultimately just greedy twat rentier capitalists and not real businessmen who like calculated risk. There is also the possibility that this risk does not really exist and lawyers can be produced to say to the satisfaction of the four siblings that the Class A shareholders have no case. But that seems unlikely.
The most likely option left after this Glazer shitshow where the share price does not tank is a full sale to Qatar. And this goes back to the basic truth that Qatar is spending way more on buying the club than INEOS is offering to. The INEOS bid is underwritten and only possible by forcing losses on the Class A shareholders. And this is because Qatar's wealth is practically infinite while SJR is just a common or garden billionaire businessman who has to balance the books.
but given the premise of this discussion is that there is a divide between the Glazers, that isn’t very likely..
the entire purpose of the voting rights structure is to prevent this situation from happening, that being one or more could screw over the rest
the reality here is there is very likely no divide and they are just trying to squeeze every last drop.. because as much as we like to think they are morons, they have expert lawyers protecting their interests
if one or two could sell by themselves, the others all get weakened, just like the horse debacle which got us in this mess to begin with
Not if they first vote through a change or find a loophole allowing them to sell their Class B shares as Class B shares. This has to happen anyway if INEOS buy. Presumably there is a private shareholders' agreement governing all this but as far as I know we don't know what it says.
The split between the two and the other 4 is apparently what's caused this to be a never ending nightmare?
I don’t think anyone knows the details on the A/B issue but my best guess is that it’s a function put in place to protect the Glazers from each other. I think it means that acting alone, they cannot sell their B shares and put the rest of the family’s control of the club in jeopardy. It forces them to act as a unit and agree to the handover of voting rights.Not if they first vote through a change or find a loophole allowing them to sell their Class B shares as Class B shares. This has to happen anyway if INEOS buy. Presumably there is a private shareholders' agreement governing all this but as far as I know we don't know what it says.
but given the premise of this discussion is that there is a divide between the Glazers, that isn’t very likely..
the entire purpose of the voting rights structure is to prevent this situation from happening, that being one or more could screw over the rest
the reality here is there is very likely no divide and they are just trying to squeeze every last drop.. because as much as we like to think they are morons, they have expert lawyers protecting their interests
if one or two could sell by themselves, the others all get weakened, just like the horse debacle which got us in this mess to begin with
I wish Jassim would have a word with Jim and tell him that he's always going to beat his offer. So for the best future for his lifelong clubChelsea, sorry UTD he should pull out and he (Jassim) could spend more money on his (Jims) favourite club. Perhaps Jassim could throw a few season tickets in for free to sweeten the offer.
I think we are into the finer details now. Glazers are sitting on the Qatar offer which is currently in the lead waiting to see if INEOS can get funding to buy the club outright at the premium they offered. If they can’t, they will eventually accept the Qatar offer. If they can, Qatar will put in a new take it or leave it offer to get back in front.
It’s essentially just waiting for INEOS to realise that Qatar will always have a slightly better offer and call it a day. Whether that’s already happened or not I have no idea. The leaks of INEOS bid being dead could have meant they haven’t made any improvements on it for months and that’s a problem for them with Qatar currently in the lead. It could mean they already communicated that they can’t or won’t buy the A shares in which case it’s a non-starter.
I don't know how you can tell if the divide is real or a ploy. In certain circumstances a majority of shareholders can change the rules while in others the rules are a contract that cannot be altered without the agreement of all parties. We don't know which this is. But if unanimity is required and J&A will only agree to something that benefits them at the expense of their siblings then that would be war and all bets are off. J&A could get kicked out of the chair and control handed to Qatar by any number of means - including the siblings joining the 92 Group. They could then stop paying dividends altogether. It would be a real mess.
My feeling is that Qatar is done raising the price and INEOS are just waiting to see if Qatar drops out, so trying to further turn the screw would be pointless. This attempt by J&A to force the INEOS deal is real but it will fail.
I think that what you're saying is true, and it's very depressing at the same time. It basically means that every member of the family has the right to veto any potential sale if he/she doesn't like the terms(price) for some reason. There are reports that Glazer siblings are not really close(don't have a particularly good relationship).but given the premise of this discussion is that there is a divide between the Glazers, that isn’t very likely..
the entire purpose of the voting rights structure is to prevent this situation from happening, that being one or more could screw over the rest
the reality here is there is very likely no divide and they are just trying to squeeze every last drop.. because as much as we like to think they are morons, they have expert lawyers protecting their interests
if one or two could sell by themselves, the others all get weakened, just like the horse debacle which got us in this mess to begin with
This is what I said a while back. Surely he must realise that he's wasting his time by now?
nobody knows, that’s why we’re debating it
...
but there’s an obvious logic to the theory that all Glazers need to agree to change the 10x voting rights rule
that rule protects them all from one or two shafting the others.. so it stands to reason it can’t be changed without 100% agreement
otherwise the thing it’s supposed to protect them from can be done anyway
I wouldn’t even be that surprised if Jimmy was in on it.
How are they not business people?If the Qataris drop out then he's good to go.
There's an obvious logic but it might not be true. You'd have to be an expert in corporate law and have access to the document to begin to know. I agree that you are likely right though.
I doubt SJR is in on it completely. I think he knows he's a stalking horse and he's ready to take advantage of any Qatari cold feet. They're not business people and if they feel they're being made fools of then they might well walk. It's a waiting game where nobody needs to call the others' bluff. We could be here for a while. The only ticking clock is the state of the club transfers and we all know the Glazers do not give a fek about that.
How are they not business people?
If the Qataris drop out then he's good to go.
There's an obvious logic but it might not be true. You'd have to be an expert in corporate law and have access to the document to begin to know. I agree that you are likely right though.
I doubt SJR is in on it completely. I think he knows he's a stalking horse and he's ready to take advantage of any Qatari cold feet. They're not business people and if they feel they're being made fools of then they might well walk. It's a waiting game where nobody needs to call the others' bluff. We could be here for a while. The only ticking clock is the state of the club transfers and we all know the Glazers do not give a fek about that.
One of the most stupid takes of the Arabs is that of naive people like you who think rich oil Arab states have no clue what they are doing and the “washing venture” is for what? Publicity? Give your head a wobble next time you go on vacation to Dubai or Doha.The Qataris are not governed by profit and loss - it's a sports washing venture by a nation state. They have practically limitless amounts of money. They spent $220 billion on hosting the World Cup just to buy good publicity. Is it really necessary to spell this out?
yeah I know it might not be true it’s just a theory. But I wouldn’t be against it at say 10/1
I’m not an expert in corporate law but I’m the director of a Cayman company so have a good overview, I’ve sat on several boards and taken a company public. So at the very least I’m not just pulling info out of my arse like most seemingly do in this thread
I’m relaxed on the takeover not causing too many issues with our window. Qatar won’t let it feck things up too much in my opinion - at the end of the day they have a lot of leverage here as they know they have the best bid.
One of the most stupid takes of the Arabs is that of naive people like you who think rich oil Arab states have no clue what they are doing and the “washing venture” is for what? Publicity? Give your head a wobble next time you go on vacation to Dubai or Doha.
Next time you or anyone from either side of the divide use the word "simple, stupid, idiots" will be banned. Try me!
One of the most stupid takes of the Arabs is that of naive people like you who think rich oil Arab states have no clue what they are doing and the “washing venture” is for what? Publicity? Give your head a wobble next time you go on vacation to Dubai or Doha.
This is like that time everyone kept fouling Eden Hazard and then Ander Herrera made his first foul and got booked for everyone else's persistent fouling.Well he's trying you. Perhaps you didn't mean it...?
Sultan is dead now show some respect.
Surely we must get some concrete news this coming week.