We should be going all in of this guy. Monster of a player and as versatile as they get.
Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea | Confirmed
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This highlights the issues with signing from Germany. The difference in levels an style led to an average decline of nearly 40% in output for npxG+xA for players coming from Germany to the PL.
The data here is taken from statsbomb and is for all transfers between the leagues since 2017/18. It applies only to players classed as FW i.e. forwards.
Obviously some players will buck the trend (KDB and probably Haaland) but I think the worry with Nkunku is the number of 1v1s he scores. In the PL these opportunities are much more scant. You can look at Rashford's hat trick against RBL for the kind of level he'd achieve in the land of high lines.
I'm not against signing Nkunku. I suppose it depends on the fee. A large fee would be a big gamble.
The data here is taken from statsbomb and is for all transfers between the leagues since 2017/18. It applies only to players classed as FW i.e. forwards.
Obviously some players will buck the trend (KDB and probably Haaland) but I think the worry with Nkunku is the number of 1v1s he scores. In the PL these opportunities are much more scant. You can look at Rashford's hat trick against RBL for the kind of level he'd achieve in the land of high lines.
I'm not against signing Nkunku. I suppose it depends on the fee. A large fee would be a big gamble.
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Yeah when you look at the highlights you will notice the amount of space the attackers get.
If I'm reading that right The Championship is on par with the Bundesliga?
This thread today is like saying Candyman three times to the Bundesliga Defence Force.
Bundesliga tax is real, but -38% on productivity is a bit mental!
How long before the bundes brigade come out in full force?
Reminds me of Mkhitaryan.
It's obviously specific to the player and team too, for instance De Bruyne would have good stats anywhere. I'm guessing the data includes the time period for Werner, Sancho and Havertz. Which isn't surprising, I said I'd be surprised if Sancho even reached half his Bundesliga output for us, both due to the crazy amount of space he had for a lot of his goals in Bundesliga and our style of play / lack of space we get.
That's why you focus on quality of performance and not mere numbers as that's more easily transferable. Players like Mbappe and Haaland are probably an exception but the Bundesliga in particular is very attack oriented.
It's an average for the past 5 seasons of transfers. KDB wouldn't actually be included in the dataset as he's classed as a midfielder by Statsbomb. It's for players that are classed as forwards (FW), generally centre forward and wide forwards. I don't think Sancho is included either. Nkunku is classed as a FW on FBref which uses Statsbomb, although he is positionally versatile.
https://fbref.com/en/players/7c56da38/Christopher-Nkunku
Been named the Bundesliga POTY today
So who is included? If it's only forwards in the past 5 seasons, KDB would be excluded anyway because he moved earlier in 2015 right? And when they say they compare transfer adjacent seasons, what happens with winter transfers? Did Dennis even play a full season in the BL?
Aubameyang
Werner
Dennis
Havertz?
Pulisic?
Sancho?
Joelinton?
Schuerrle?
Seems a very unfortunate data set
So who is included? If it's only forwards in the past 5 seasons, KDB would be excluded anyway because he moved earlier in 2015 right? And when they say they compare transfer adjacent seasons, what happens with winter transfers? Did Dennis even play a full season in the BL?
Aubameyang
Werner
Dennis
Havertz?
Pulisic?
Sancho?
Joelinton?
Schuerrle?
Seems a very unfortunate data set
Off the top of my head there's Haller of the bigger names too. Reiss Nelson, Demari Gray, Ryan Sessegnon and Ademola Lookman have all been between the leagues in that time as well. I think there will be a lot more players at the smaller clubs that have gone between the leagues that we've forgotten about.
Havent read the full thing but I wonder if decline in productivity is only just because the league is more difficult.
I find that PL teams are filthy rich and often buy players with a very poor idea of how to use them, best example Man United. (Liverpool, City, Leicester are some of the bests at this I'd say)
Donny van de Beek, Sancho en Memphis for example, were so clearly used in the wrong manner. Do you then blame the league, or United?
Whereas Bundesliga teams, have far less funds and need to be much more calculated about the signings they do I'd say.
I find that PL teams are filthy rich and often buy players with a very poor idea of how to use them, best example Man United. (Liverpool, City, Leicester are some of the bests at this I'd say)
Donny van de Beek, Sancho en Memphis for example, were so clearly used in the wrong manner. Do you then blame the league, or United?
Whereas Bundesliga teams, have far less funds and need to be much more calculated about the signings they do I'd say.
Ah yeah thanks, forgot about some of those. IIRC most of them hardly convinced, yet their sub appearances still managed to push that stat above their subsequent PL stats. Sessegnon was alright I think, but mostly LB or WB so probably doesnt count.
Quite impressive, he beats Lewandowski and Haaland to win this award.
I don't know if I'd go that far in generalising, but sometimes there's some truth to that. I think it's also a matter to which team they go and come from, and in some cases I guess a little context helps too. Then again it's an average so shouldn't really look at the individual cases, but I can't help it with this particular bunch of players.
Just a quick glance at some of the names mentioned above, especially the bit part players loaned for a season, a few seem to have played under Nagelsmann either in Hoffenheim or Leipzig. Not necessarily successfully, one purple patch maybe (Lookman and Reiss Nelsson), but then mostly short sub appearances. So their per 90 contributions look more impressive than their time there would suggest. Same for Gray in Leverkusen basically I think.
Then you have Joelinton, who also played under Nagelsman who knew how to use him, and Haller who played well in a very good Frankfurt side. Both those players went to teams who clearly didn't know what kind of players they were or what to do with them, so they probably fit your argument best.
I think the common thread so far is playing for good attacking teams, like Nagelsmann's sides or Leverkusen, or Frankfurt that season. Then moving to clubs like Newcastle, Everton, Fulham probably doesn't help.
Then there's Werner, ok also fits the pattern a bit, maybe he picked the wrong team, and the covid and Lampard situation etc didnt help, but let's be honest even if he had remained in Germany he'd probably never reach those stats he got in his pre Chelsea season again. And I say that as someone who actually rates him in the right set up (when he's confident)
Schurle, just wasn't good anymore and went to fulham
Aubameyang , more or less picked up where he left yet his /90 xgxa is slightly lower
Havertz, not a great first season for various reasons, better second, still needs to improve though
Sessegnon is listed as a DF-FW-MF (FB, left) on FBref (they use statsbomb) as well so I think he would be included. He did play as a wide attacking forward earlier in his career. If he was included I don't think it would be too controversial because wing backs are attacking players in the modern game.
Yeah for Hoffenheim he mainly played FB or WB. Don't think he was included because I checked on FBref and he improved his npxG+A from 0.14 to 0.31 per 90 after moving back to Spurs and the tweet says only Dennis managed to match his Bundesliga stats
Fair enough.
Yeah to beat them is some feat indeed
And then you will have people saying great numbers in Bundesliga, but will probably fail in EPL, like Werner, Havertz, and co.
Him joining Bayern might well be the most predictable transfer of all time.
What were Mane's comparable stats?
Or Firminho's?
Or Firminho's?
While they're not really similar I feel like parts of that tweet could also describe Mason Mount. If Mount didn't play at Chelsea already how much would he cost?
His stats are very good, exceptional even. Will take a bit of time to adjust to the PL if he comes but it's definitely a calculated risk worth taking.
Any player from the Bundesliga is suspect.
The Bundeliga Defence League are assembling like Avengers as we speak.
He should the perfect rebound for Madrid after failing to attract Mbappé.
They won't sell unless some stupid offer like 100 mill came about.
Chelsea supposedly have 200m to spend. If they manage to sell on of Lukaku or Werner, that might go up to 250m. They could afford it I guess. They do need defenders though.
Still it won't be really wise to spend that much on a single attacker, especially after their recent big money failures.
And for free as usual
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