Chelsea 2022/2023 | THIS IS LAST YEARS THREAD YOU NUMPTIES
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You have to be a man of great faith to believe Chelsea can make the top four this season. Has that margin ever been closed down at this stage of the season?
I think among the traditional top six only Tottenham are still in it.
I think among the traditional top six only Tottenham are still in it.
Okay yes in that sense it’s accurate but then when you list players we have lost or will (most likely) lose in the summer it looks like this;
Rudiger
Christensen
Alonso
Azpi
Jorginho (free agent after this season and no new contract forthcoming)
Werner
Lukaku
CHO
And then you have Kante who has missed the entire season so far and is also a free agent after this season, though there is talk of an extension.
That's 9 players who were big parts of the team before this season gone or potentially gone in a couple of months.
So yes, lost/could lose 9 players - brought in 11 players so far (not counting Gusto and Enzo/Caicedo as not signed yet), two of which are just on loan and one of which wasn't really brought in to be a big part of this season but injuries have forced us to throw him in the deep end.
Although this level of spending is indeed crazy, when you contextualise each transfer I would say around 80% of them have been direct replacements for players who have left or in anticipation for players who will leave. I appreciate that non-Chelsea fans do not care enough to contextualise it in the way that I have and are just reacting to the overall spending which is fair enough but yeah that's how I see it.
It feels impossible because it not only requires a huge upturn in form for us which I have seen very little evidence of so far but also requires one of United or Newcastle's form to collapse which I have also seen very little evidence of. We can easily catch Spurs I think and I'm not worries about the teams between us and 4th, I think they'll all finish below us eventually but 4th is too big of a reach because it isn't just the 10 point gap, it's also having to chase two teams in excellent form.
Agree, Kane is carrying Spurs while United and Newcastle are good teams. You could argue if Rashford drops off United might be susceptible to a drop off but I still think they're far better than Spurs.
To be fair, first you must easily win a game of football, something Chelsea seem to have a bit of an issue with
Yeah I'm interested to see how United navigate that because Rashford's red hot form is unlikely to continue at the current rate but overall the team is just much better than they were last season, way more structured and much better coached. Casemiro seems like he's had a transformational impact on that team.
Yeah that part was me projecting faith in Mudryk, Felix etc to help us win more games starting with Fulham next game.
10 point gap in 18 games? Doesn't seem that outlandish.
Who gives a shit about finishing 4th anyway? If you ain't first, whatever.
We're going to qualify for next season's champs league as winners.
I mean, we have lost and will likely lose (at a minimum)
Cavani
Ronaldo
Matic
Pogba
Lingard
Mata
Henderson
Telles
Maguire
McTominay
So I wouldn't say your outgoings are particularly shocking. It's the fact that you've done the rebuild in the space of 4/5 months for huge money which is pretty unusual. Haven't you also got a deal for Nkunku sorted? So that's 12, without Malo Gusto + a midfielder (and not counting the forward Fofana and Andrey Santos). I'm assuming you'll also be recruiting in the summer, assuming you don't get another ban? It's quite mad.
Yep and United have brought in 8 players (with probably much more to come when your new ownership is here) over the last 2 windows, we're at 11. I'm not here to argue that is in't crazy spending because it is but that some of that spending was necessary, forced upon us due to the outgoings. But also a reaction to the disastrous season we're having. If we were sitting in top 4, there's a decent chance we wouldn't be this aggressive in the January window.
Is it a default win when it’s one of the main reasons you’re 10th?
I keep saying you’re shit because you are. Oh Tuchel didn’t have a full season, that’s why we were fourth. Points per game since coming in means this and that..we were top until Christmas, the takeover etc distracted the players. I know we’ve been shit since Christmas and it continued for a full calendar year that got Tuchel sacked but the continuation of that form is down to the players not understanding Potters methods..injuries! That’s the new one. One of us is closer to the truth and (hint) it’s not the one saying you aren’t shit.
The Batshauyi of fullbacks is helping us continue our fantastic defensive form since coming back, City couldn’t get the ball off him at times last week. How did you do v City? I seem to have forgotten .
In terms of goals it's actually 2-1 for Silva in these games
Haven't you signed 14 players? According to Transfermarkt anyway (if you're including Dubraka (who's already left) and Butland in our 8 you can include Andrey Santos et al in your 14!). Yeh there was a pressing need to revitalise your frontline. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of your season turns out.
i’ve filed a missing person’s report for boehly as it’s been over three days since he’s vastly over paid for a player. thoughts and prayers are with his family and i hope he’s found safe and well.
Yeah fair enough. I didn’t look at the names, just went down a list of incomings this season and counted 8. My bad.
You're barking up the wrong tree - the majority here seem to think of Top 4 as some kind of trophy. It's beyond weird.
Batshauyi himself scored a goal for us that actually led to something and he's still one of the worst strikers we've ever had, your point? No wonder you thought you were going to win the league under Ole if you're this easily pleased.
As for this improved defensive record of recent weeks, our league goals against against the same opponents you've had since the restart is actually less and only one above what you allowed against Arsenal alone.
Isn't getting CL fairly important for FFP reasons? Beyond that, it's just quite nice to play CL football. Is that really considered beyond weird? As much as I'm looking forward to going to OT to watch us play Barca, the Europa League theme riddim doesn't bang the same.
The TV deals and parachute payments in this league go a very long way to mitigating pretty much any failure these days.
Even relegation doesn't really have long lasting consequences bar playing lesser teams for a while, case in point look at the two teams running away with promotion this season, the recent PL teams can simply financially overwhelm the rest in the Champ. I think that's rubbed off on supporters aswell (how often do we people in the stands bubbling their eyes out after a relegation these days compared to the 90s/00s? They know full well they're 99% likely to be back in the foreseeable future).
For me my stance on the point is it depends on what the clubs ambition is once they get in there. If the ambition is to give winning it a serious shot then by all means it's something worth celebrating but if at the point of merely qualifying for it is being as good as treated like a title (ala Spurs and late Wenger Arsenal) then I'm fully in agreement with @Mr. Robot .
We are one off Newcastle who have the most clean sheets in Europe.
You incorrectly spelled Chelsea have 3 clean sheets in last 15 games by the way. May want to check that.
Feck me that’s a lot of goal posts in your last sentence. Am I playing polo or something? Weird way of saying Chelsea have less clean sheets and conceded more goals despite playing a game less since the restart but whatever. Plus I don’t even think that’s true anyway.
4 against City
1 against City
1 against forest
You also played Palace, is that it? You’re comparing three opponents to us that you conceded more goals against so that stat is wildly incorrect anyway? Is there honestly a game I’m missing here?
I’m sorry but this is why I have to keep reminding you how shit you are, it’s because of nonsense posts like this
I thought I saw @Messier1994 post something about the potential ramifications of your spending if you don't get CL football. Getting CL as a Spurs or Arsenal was important at the time because they were competing with United, Chelsea, and City for players. Consistently finishing outside of top 4 definitely has consequences. Obviously most things move in cycles, teams fall off, new investment comes in etc and the top 4 can get a shake up. But generally speaking, there's only really 3 spots up for grabs and just for entertainment reasons, playing in the EL or worst still, not playing European football at all generally just sucks.
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Against the same opponents you've had since your "defensive improvement" we've conceded one less in the league. Ofcourse it's not something to brag about I'm only pointing out in context to what you're saying.
Ofcourse you do fare better if we add cup games we were playing teenage debutants against the Champions and you played a league one team fair enough.
You're overall defensive improvement came about when you finally dropped Harry Maguire (who was being compared favourably against Silva a couple of years ago, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt you didn't go that far as I can't remember exactly who it was).
Wasn't Sterling playing up until the city game recently? Wasn't pulling up any trees.
I don't think we were a lot closer when Bruno arrived approximately in round 25 in 2019. Not that I think it's plausibly doable for Chelsea this season. As Wee Pat points out, it would also require a collapse in form from either United or Newcastle. We got that from Leicester (and to a lesser extent Chelsea) in 2019.
Certainly it's not in our hand. But PL totally unpredictable one main player go out of form little niggly injury could derail the season in this league. But have to say that's 20% chance to finish in top 4. We have more chance to win cl than making top 4.
Problem is we again have to rely on Reece and chilwell fitness. If they stay fit for remaining of the season then we will give tough fight for top 4 finish.
When Bruno signed you were 5th with 34 points in 24 matches. Only six points off us in 4th but a whopping 14 behind Leicester who both of us ended up overtaking in just 15 games remaining. But yeah like you said the problem for us right now is that there are just a lot more teams between our current league position and top4 than you had in 2019/20. Even if someone currently in the running for top-4 has a 'Leicester level collapse' there's still many others we need to overtake as well so there's very little room for mistakes.
If our new signings click together quickly and if we have a little better luck with the injuries between now and the end of the season it's possible to still make it but also very, very unlikely. Right now I'd say we have about a 10% chance at most because there are simply too many variables that need to go in our favor. If things look better in a couple of months and we're somewhat closer to the European spots we can adjust expectations as we go but now it's not really worth even talking about.
Right now I'd say the most important thing is to just try to get all the newcomers to settle in as quickly as possible and try to show some improvement in our form to get a better vibe around the club going into next season. Whether or not we actually qualify for the UCL this year, just having everyone fully settled and the team with all it's new players starting to find their groove this season could help us massively next year.
It's really just Spurs, apart from Newcastle and United. There are 4 other teams between us and Spurs in 5th but they're all within 2 points of us (obviously with differing number of games played) and we're playing one of them at home next after 2 weeks of rest
I would not say trophy, but it is a lot of money toward FFP calculations.
No, the reason alot of us want top 4 is it provides a gateway to play CL football.
CL football is the highest quality and one of the biggest trophies a club / player can win at club level. It gives clubs finances that allow them to spend more on players and wages in turn attracting better players.
No one was. The squad had already been hit hard by injuries and he had been largely played out of position by Potter. He's still our best forward.
I assume Chelsea are relying on selling a lot of players this summer to balance the books but think its unlikely that will happen. Don't think they've released their 21/22 accounts but they lost over £150m in 20/21. Ziyech isn't going to for huge money and Pulisic has a year left on his deal as does Hudson-Adoi. Kante & Jorginho will probably leave on frees. Inter have their own money problems so Lukaku might leave on another loan.
Add in CL football looks unlikely unless they win it this year then their heading for big trouble.
Add in CL football looks unlikely unless they win it this year then their heading for big trouble.
FFP is easy to circumvent with a dedicated owner, as City have shown, you just have to have the money to do it. Money from a decent Europa run can partly compensate for CL, good to have anyway.
My main concern is being lumbered with underperforming players on huge money and long contracts. Can see it already with Sterling, statistically he's been our best attacker but in quite a few games has been woeful, Mount wants 300k a week apparently.
There will probably be a firesale of players in the next few windows. As long as Clear Lake have the money to lose it shouldn't be a big problem for the club, similar to how Roman was putting in £100m a year ish.
My main concern is being lumbered with underperforming players on huge money and long contracts. Can see it already with Sterling, statistically he's been our best attacker but in quite a few games has been woeful, Mount wants 300k a week apparently.
There will probably be a firesale of players in the next few windows. As long as Clear Lake have the money to lose it shouldn't be a big problem for the club, similar to how Roman was putting in £100m a year ish.
You're looking at it wrong.
Even if Jorginho leaves on a free and we only get relatively low fees for the likez of Ziyech and Pulisic the most important thing would be that any amortisation costs and salaries of these players would be gone from the club's accounts. Just need £25M combined for Pulisic and Ziyech to clear any remaining book values and together with Jorginho leaving that would already clear £45M a year in FFP costs so basically more than the yearly costs of all our January signings put together. If Kante were to also leave on a free that's another £18M saved in FFP costs.
As long as the cashflow is there to make new signings (owner investment) the only thing the club need to worry about is freeing some room in the FFP budget for amortisation and wage costs of new incoming players.
I know fans always go on and on about total spend, net spend etc. but the only thing that matters to the club is how it all looks in the balance sheet including amortisations and that's too complicated for most regular fans to understand.
I'm aware of how player transfers are amortised, Chelsea since the last set of accounts where player amortisation was at over £160m have bought Lukaku in addition to spending over £400m since the summer. That alone has probably added circa £80m to that figure since, obviously all those players you've mentioned along with the players who left on a free will help greatly reduce that figure but there's no doubt Chelsea's budget for the summer will be affected if you fail to make the CL and by giving players longer contracts and having a huge clear out this summer gives you less room for manoeuvre going forward.
Giving players longer contracts will ultimately backfire.
Sure. The new signings this season (+ Lukaku) have increased amortisation costs from that £160M figure by around £80-90M a year but also the likes of Rüdiger, Werner, Emerson, Zouma, Batshuayi, Zappacosta, Giroud have left and their amoritsations will reduced the overall figure by a good chunk of money so the overall increase is probably around half of the 80-90M figure and the rest will more or less be covered with a few key outgoings (Jorginho, Pulisic, Ziyech) that are very likely to happen in the next six months. Any further outgoings (among the likes of Auba, Azpi, Gallagher, RLC, CHO would free up some cost too and wouldn't be big misses as for the first team squad quality is concerned.
Missing out on the CL is going to affect our finances but without knowing the full ins and outs of the new FFP rules I'm not sure if it should be a big concern or not, as long as it doesn't turn into a recurring occurence.
This will depend entirely on whether the signings are successful or not and it's too early to say anything definite.
Giving your opinion as fact doesn’t make it right. It’s worked fine in other sports. We will have to watch this space and see who is right, the club or it’s critics.
As long as Chelsea complies with the FFP can spend as much money as they want. If the new signings have a low salary and the players who leave a high salary then they have room for amortizations.
I do not understand the position of Uefa to limit the amortization to 5 years, everyone should be able to choose whether to give short or long contracts while fulfilling the FFP.
I do not understand the position of Uefa to limit the amortization to 5 years, everyone should be able to choose whether to give short or long contracts while fulfilling the FFP.
So when everyone is fit, what would be Chelsea's first team including 7 subs? Any Chelsea fan ?
We got some 15 official partners for chelsea during Roman ownership. That's low compared to united city or Liverpool. So lot of room for improvement in commercial income. FFP won't be a problem for us.
At this moment in time? Probably:
—————————Kepa——————————
James Fofana Silva Badiashile Chilwell
———————Kante Kovacic———————
Sterling—————Felix——————Mudders
Bench:
Mendy
Chalobah
Cucurella
Mount
Havertz
Zakaria
Gallagher
Still lacking a real 9 and 2 decent wingers.
Ziyech, Pulisic, Auba, possibly Gallagher (as an asset with actual value) and RLC should be moved on.
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