Champions League Round of 16 (12th Feb - 13th Mar)

Pocho said:
Are you trying to start "the debate" again? Please don't.
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@wr8_utd that Ronaldo PR guy seems to have written the narrative already - about how Barca's team/squad is super stacked and anything less than a UCL win would be deemed a failure - (probably a nice platform in which Messi can be crucified). & then the opposite narrative of how Juve seems to have a pub squad - not directly saying it, but alluring to it (MLS Khedira is starting for them FFS), so if the mighty underdog Juve (who's reached what, 2-3 UCL finals in the last few years?) somehow dare wins the competition, it would be a Leicester like achievement (& guess who'll be deserving of all the accolades?) :lol:

What I do agree on though is Barca should be aiming to win the UCL. They have one of the best squads and are one of the favorites (along with teams such as Juve, Madrid, PSG, City, Atletico), but pretending Suarez is the best #9 in the world and Vidal is still the same player he was in his prime (also neglecting the fact that both Pique & Busquets have declined) etc. just reeks of agenda.
 
RobinLFC said:
Bayern need to win whilst we can afford a (score) draw. You're basing your argument over who has the advantage on the fact that Bayern has to play at home. I could easily refute that by saying they'll have to attack us which will leave them more vulnerable at the back. They also had a grant total of 0 shots on target last night whilst we were without our best defender.

I'm happy with the result and we definitely have the advantage going in the return leg as far as I'm concerned. Score first and the tie is done.
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And that's a strong basis for an argument. It's not you are playing Bunley or Cardiff away from home, it's Bayern. Any team with CL aspiration would back themselves to win home ties vs any teams.

Why should they attack? They can also go for 0-0 and then wait for penalties. That option is open for Bayern too.

Obviously score draw or win would have been better than goalless draw but it's so much better than any kind of loss.

Re shots on target, you guys had 2 playing at home, playing with almost full 11 (except VVD) and your best attackers. Away from home, who knows you might not even have shot on target which happened couple of times already in CL this season. 3/3 losses and IIRC in 2 of the games you guys didn't even have shot on target.
 
GhastlyHun said:
I don't disagree, but we just were even more ordinary in attack. Lewandowski was more isolated than Sarri is currently at Chelsea.
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Yes, I didn't see Gnabry at all in the second half apart from that shot he ballooned in the stands, Coman tired and Lewandowski won some duels but far away from their goal. Liverpool has some chances but, it was all chaotic and generally their best chance came after a lucky deflection in my opinion.
 
BayernFan87 said:
Good result, good performance in defense.
We lacked in offense because we did not have a 2nd striker/OM like Müller (I was glad he was suspended, he would have lost way too many balls) or Goretzka, so Lewy was pretty much on his own in the box and because our.fullbacks played more cautious than in other games.
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An interesting stat from the game. Lewy had as many passes from Neuer as from James, Coman, Thiago, Gnabry, Martinez and Ribery combined.
 
Jerzol78 said:
An interesting stat from the game. Lewy had as many passes from Neuer as from James, Coman, Thiago, Gnabry, Martinez and Ribery combined.
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Going by UEFA site,

Lewandowski received 4 passes from Neuer. He also received 4 from James.

Gnabry to Lewandowski - 0 passes
Thiago to Lewandowski - 0 Passes
Coman to Lewandowski - 1 pass
Ribery to Lewandowski - 1 pass
Martinez to Lewandowski - 1 pass

That's awful.
 
At least today's games won't be as bad as yesterday. It's an absolute impossibility for the Schalke vs City game to end 0-0.
 
Tommy said:
At least today's games won't be as bad as yesterday. It's an absolute impossibility for the Schalke vs City game to end 0-0.
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Though City cruising 4-0 will still be pretty boring. Watch Atletico v Juve be an absolute goalfest :lol:
 
Raw said:
Though City cruising 4-0 will still be pretty boring. Watch Atletico v Juve be an absolute goalfest :lol:
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Imagine :lol: Whatever the case, I'm sure it'll be a good game. I'm actually expecting Atletico to get a pretty decent win tonight - Especially if the Juve defence hasn't fully recovered by now (honestly, I've not checked).
 
Our media are still in lala land. BBC spent considerable time yesterday informing me this is the worst Bayern Munich team in modern times, and what a credible threat Liverpool are to Europe's elite...all while the two teams play out a 0-0 draw at Anfield with 2 shots on target.

Last week they seemed shocked that PSG, a team with a squad of world class and experienced players, could possibly be better than the 4th placed team in the Premier League.
 
Well I think it is true that it is the weakest Bayern team for some time, but it still isn't a weak team of course. Both Liverpool and Bayern are amongst the top few teams in Europe at the moment. The results hardly refute anything there.

As for PSG, they were favourites to win the tie but I didn't expect us to lose 2-0 at OT and most people didn't either, especially with Neymar and Cavani out. We were disappointing in that game.
 
sincher said:
Well I think it is true that it is the weakest Bayern team for some time, but it still isn't a weak team of course. Both Liverpool and Bayern are amongst the top few teams in Europe at the moment. The results hardly refute anything there.

As for PSG, they were favourites to win the tie but I didn't expect us to lose 2-0 at OT and most people didn't either, especially with Neymar and Cavani out. We were disappointing in that game.
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I think when you look at the PSG team even with players missing, United were up against it. These are strong teams with no real weaknesses. United struggle at times to keep their weaknesses under wraps against mid table Premier League sides.

Liverpool as well. They got to the final last year but they were probably Real Madrid's easiest opponent outside of the group stage.i think they're up against it now and even if they beat Bayern, there are better teams in the likes of PSG, Juventus and Bacelona. PSG already made a complete mug show of them a few months ago.

City are the only English team I think can realistically say they are up There, and even then I think they're more vulnerable than the other top sides. City on form can match anyone, but on an off day and at this level it's just too easy to pick them off on the break.
 
Here are the likely results and who it benefits in the next leg:

Neither team: 0-0
Bayern: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2
LFC: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3

Kept the scorelines down for illustration purposes but stats wise LFC have a third more chance of going through.
 
Dumbstar said:
Here are the likely results and who it benefits in the next leg:

Neither team: 0-0
Bayern: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2
LFC: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3

Kept the scorelines down for illustration purposes but stats wise LFC have a third more chance of going through.
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:confused: I'm not sure that's how it works.
 
Dumbstar said:
Here are the likely results and who it benefits in the next leg:

Neither team: 0-0
Bayern: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2
LFC: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3

Kept the scorelines down for illustration purposes but stats wise LFC have a third more chance of going through.
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I don't think that's how those stats work...

For a start, not every outcome is evenly weighted
 
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Seems I did not miss anything yesterday.

Still think that this result is slightly better for Liverpool as Bayern might need to play in a more proactive way at home.
 
Schneckerl said:
A common misconception. About 7/10 times the away team advances after a 0:0.
Failing to win at home is a bigger deal.
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That's statistics of the actual results. Nevertheless Liverpool have the advantage mathematically.
 
GhastlyHun said:
That's statistics of the actual results. Nevertheless Liverpool have the advantage mathematically.
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What the hell does that mean?
Bayern have the advantage, backed by real life results. 'Mathematically' the same conclussion would be reached.
 
GhastlyHun said:
That's statistics of the actual results. Nevertheless Liverpool have the advantage mathematically.
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I suppose I should have stuck to saying we have more favourable results than Bayern. So say Bayern are 1-0 down then we are strong favourites at that point. But if we're 1-0 down then Bayern are only slight favourites as 1 goal from us near the end will kill them. In other other words we don't have to go hell bent to chase the game.
 
Schneckerl said:
What the hell does that mean?
Bayern have the advantage, backed by real life results. 'Mathematically' the same conclussion would be reached.
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Exactly. Bayern are not trailing after first leg and they have second game at home. It's advantage Bayern.
 
Dumbstar said:
Here are the likely results and who it benefits in the next leg:

Neither team: 0-0
Bayern: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2
LFC: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3

Kept the scorelines down for illustration purposes but stats wise LFC have a third more chance of going through.
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You could have just said any win for Bayern and any win or positive draw for Pool.
 
Schneckerl said:
What the hell does that mean?
Bayern have the advantage, backed by real life results. 'Mathematically' the same conclussion would be reached.
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No it wouldn't. Advancing on scoring draws is a mathematical advantage, because the majority of possible results are in your favor. That's mathematics.
Looking at the historical results from such ties is statistics, which is nice, but statistics do not predict single events.
 


For those of us who didn't watch the Barca game :lol:
 
Since the creation of the Champions league, 67% of teams have gone through to the next stage after drawing 0-0 away from home. Statistical models have the chance of going through as 50/50 based on the performances of each team this season.

The only place where Liverpool are favoured to go through is in betting patterns, which is literally a mug's opinion.

GhastlyHun said:
No it wouldn't. Advancing on scoring draws is a mathematical advantage, because the majority of possible results are in your favor. That's mathematics.
Looking at the historical results from such ties is statistics, which is nice, but statistics do not predict single events.
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Talks about statistics and mathematics, forgets about probability. Bayern win is about 50%, while draw and Liverpool win is 25% each. An even game mathematically.
 
This is by far the worst bayern side in recent years and supposedly the best Liverpool side in many years. Every comment was how bayern should lube up, bayern will get trashed blabla and yet still a 0-0. If Bayern had the strength from two,three years this would have been a one sided match. Now its 50-50 for the second game.
 
Dumbstar said:
Here are the likely results and who it benefits in the next leg:

Neither team: 0-0
Bayern: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2
LFC: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3

Kept the scorelines down for illustration purposes but stats wise LFC have a third more chance of going through.
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Please tell me you're a bookmaker
 
fcnrz said:
This is by far the worst bayern side in recent years and supposedly the best Liverpool side in many years. Every comment was how bayern should lube up, bayern will get trashed blabla and yet still a 0-0. If Bayern had the strength from two,three years this would have been a one sided match. Now its 50-50 for the second game.
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They parked the bus. Had they played a relatively open game, it would have been an easy win for Liverpool.

Can't believe people are looking at this game and going 'see, Bayern are good!'. They played like a relegation threatened side, had some quality on the ball but offered zero threat whatsoever and had zero intention of actually scoring a goal.

They got a 0-0 because of their tactics, not because they're better than people thought they were. Nobody really expected them to come and play like that so fair play to them for accepting their limitations.
 
Goretzka, Robben, Muller, a fully-fit Ribery... those would be fantastic additions to Bayern in three weeks’ time and a prospect that should worry Liverpool. Bayern’s options from the bench last night were extremely limited yet they went to Anfield and got a very respectable result. I would be very wary of Bayern at the Allianz as they are a formidable outfit there. Couple to that their vast experience at this level, their injury list clearing up and Liverpool being absolutely dire away from home in Europe the past two seasons, it is a difficult task for a Liverpool side who also haven’t played a good game - anywhere - since December (okay maybe Bournemouth but Howe gifted you the three points that day with his set-up).

Liverpool fans talking up their chances and claiming last night was a good result for them are either fantasists or in complete denial. Bayern would be by far the happier of the two considering the context of the fixture (absentees, home advantage, first leg nerves etc). It’s finely poised and of course Liverpool could score a couple out there and kill the tie, but that would be an exception rather than a rule for this Liverpool team under Klopp away from home in Europe, where results and performances have been generally poor. A raucous Allianz, a rejuvenated and re-strengthened Bayern, a nervy away team... it’s certainly not the cake-walk some Liverpool fans are claiming it will be.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
They parked the bus. Had they played a relatively open game, it would have been an easy win for Liverpool.

Can't believe people are looking at this game and going 'see, Bayern are good!'. They played like a relegation threatened side, had some quality on the ball but offered zero threat whatsoever and had zero intention of actually scoring a goal.

They got a 0-0 because of their tactics, not because they're better than people thought they were. Nobody really expected them to come and play like that so fair play to them for accepting their limitations.
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Parked the bus but still had more possesion. 51 to 49%. They didn't have the edge to hurt Liverpool mainly due to lack of bench options and injuries whilst dealing with all liverpool had to throw at them. The scoreline is dangerous one but they remain favourites.
 
breakout67 said:
Since the creation of the Champions league, 67% of teams have gone through to the next stage after drawing 0-0 away from home. Statistical models have the chance of going through as 50/50 based on the performances of each team this season.

The only place where Liverpool are favoured to go through is in betting patterns, which is literally a mug's opinion.



Talks about statistics and mathematics, forgets about probability. Bayern win is about 50%, while draw and Liverpool win is 25% each. An even game mathematically.
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Well then you're contradicting yourself. Betting odds are based on probability. The same probability you are mentioning in your last sentence. The Bayern home win is 50% , which you are basing on the betting odds. So therefore the odds on advancing are also 50/50 for each side (also the odds on one major bookmaker i checked).
 
GhastlyHun said:
No it wouldn't. Advancing on scoring draws is a mathematical advantage, because the majority of possible results are in your favor. That's mathematics.
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I don't know how this is even anything you try to argue about when there are several hundred games of data to prove that you are wrong.

You are assuming that W/D/L have the same likeliness of occuring which is not true.
 
abdo99 said:
Parked the bus but still had more possesion. 51 to 49%. They didn't have the edge to hurt Liverpool mainly due to lack of bench options and injuries whilst dealing with all liverpool had to throw at them. The scoreline is dangerous one but they remain favourites.
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Yeah, possession which was all in their backline. Neuer had more touches than Lewandowski.

Liverpool have their best two central defenders out. They could potentially have been hurt but Bayern didn't even try and get forward, their fullbacks barely passed the halfway line.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
They parked the bus. Had they played a relatively open game, it would have been an easy win for Liverpool.

Can't believe people are looking at this game and going 'see, Bayern are good!'. They played like a relegation threatened side, had some quality on the ball but offered zero threat whatsoever and had zero intention of actually scoring a goal.

They got a 0-0 because of their tactics, not because they're better than people thought they were. Nobody really expected them to come and play like that so fair play to them for accepting their limitations.
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what? So what bayern should open up and play right in their hands by leaving empty space? Liverpool are supposed to be this strong side right now that will crash bayern so why does it matter if bayern "parked the bus"(this is not true by the way)? Everybody jerking around saying that liverpool will trash bayern and now people making excuses why that didnt happen.

Like i said this is the worst bayern side in recent years and yet a "mighty best" liverpool side couldnt even create one single good chance. If this was bayern circa 2013-2015 it would have been Arsenal like scoreline in favor of bayern
 
Schneckerl said:
I don't know how this is even anything you try to argue about when there are several hundred games of data to prove that you are wrong.

You are assuming that W/D/L have the same likeliness of occuring which is not true.
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I am not talking about statistics for crying out loud.
 
‘Parking the bus’ has changed meaning for too many people. It used to be having 20% possession and 10 players inside the box, now any team that plays conservately is parking the bus.

Bayern had more possession than Liverpool yesterday. They’d have seen how bad Liverpool’s away form has been in Europe and they’ll obviously fancy their chances at home.
 
Schneckerl said:
A common misconception. About 7/10 times the away team advances after a 0:0.
Failing to win at home is a bigger deal.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting...ons-league-match-predictions/D3E2R38B3CRB5ZZX
https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum/view.php?archive=2008.Q3&topic=20080919192651.xml
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I can't believe I have to say this but that is completely irrelevant. It's like saying that 46% of Premier League matches are won by the home side. True, but not particularly useful when Man City host Huddersfield. The only thing that matters is the strength of the two teams involved. The true probability of Bayern progressing equals their chance of winning the return leg plus a 50+x (due to home field advantage) percentage of the 0-0 scorelines. And that total is a lot closer to 50% than 67%. Infact it could be slightly below 50. GhastlyHun is correct.
 
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