I do not have permission yet to write in Current Events that is why I asked Raoul if he could post that in this thread.
As I will not be able to answer you back guys, I will expose my opinion in an extense (very) post.
I will start saying I am a catalan independentist, so of course I am biased though I try to be rational about it. Starting then:
As Carvajal said, it all started with the statut in 2006. BUt the similarities with my point of view varies quite a lot. In 2006 The Socialitist Party (the national party oposed to Partido Popular) in coalition with leftist nationalist parties and the regional communist+greens they promoted the Statut with the promise of the President of Spain (Socialist party like the one in Catalonia) that the Statute that would come from the catalan parliament would be respected. Convergencia i Unio (the right bourgeois party was not in the catalan government so no, not 30 years of them). Catalan people voted in referendum the statute, catalan parliament voted as well and spanish parliament as well. Statue approved. As it had been in the history after the dictatorship, it was a matter of mutual negotiations between Spain and Catalonia that worked out well. Till the Partido Popular entered in the scene bringing the statute to the Constitutional Jury. Forbidding articles. Meanwhile, in other regions of Spain, they had (and still have, exactly some of the same artciles in their statute but nobody cares).
There, the status quo broke, and the Socialist catalan party (not born in catalonia, because we don't care which is the origin of the people) said: Careful with the disaffection of catalonia towards spain. In July 2010, it was a massive demonstration of more than a million to protest about the statute. All that under the socialist party rule, spanish national party, nothing about the catalan nationalist from the previous 6 years, no nationalist right wing....nothing. In that demonstration, we started to hear some chants about independence. I was there.
From them the PEOPLE, not the parties, organized rallies. Then, with the crisis, the first cultural based indepndentism added the economic disconformist with the situation, spurred by catalan politicians, blaming Spain for the economic situation to avoid their own blame in corruption and bad management. People swallowed and the independentism grew a lot. In 2012, now yes, Convergencia i Unio (CIU) the nationalist right-bourgeois party raised to power after 8 years gap of socialist. At that time Artur Mas, he was not about independentism, he still not indepndentist, just he had to jump the train because people wanted. CIU never wanted independentism. EVER. Maybe some base voters but mostly they where conservative that wanted the status quo with Madrid.
But from 2012 we organized 5 massive demonstrations in our national day with +1.000.000 to 2.500.000 depending on the year (total population 7.5 million) With that demonstrations, the catalan politicians had to jump the train. The Partido Popular continued not only ignoring that problem but insulting so any way to backtrack the problem became more and more difficult. Instead like the Scottish Referendum, London allow it and that is it. If in 2012, Madrid would allow it, the Yes would not happened. Carvajal said that the catalan government said that don't seek dialogue when it asked 83 times requirements to meet. For spanish government to set the rules for a pacted referendum...Nothing.
And now we reach this situation, Mas, image and representative of the past years of the catalan corruption and ambiguity, was forced to resign in the elections of 2015 by their coalition CUP (so called extremist or antisystem, but they are just leftist, but the left in spain is so at the right that is just a distortion), because they didn't want to go together with that opportunist and corrupt.
Partido Popular (heirs of the fascist dictator Franco, founded by one of their ministers), continued treating the problem with the worse "solutions" becoming a machine of independentists. And we reach a clash of trains.
Catalan government broke relationships with the spanish, created their own laws in case the catalan referendum goes "yes". The reaction of Madrid government is (not only a couple of printers intervined):
- more than a dozen of newspapers visited by the Military Police, Guardia Civil (GC)
-100.000 referendum posters sized
-1.700.000 referenudm propaganda pamflets and others sized
-webpages related with the referendum shut down, "asked" the main phone operators to not show the ones overseas
- 712 mayors of a bit more than 900 of the territory prosecuted
- President of Spain LITERALLY menaced 60.000 volunteers and ALL voters of being prosecuted because they are committing an illegal act
- Forbid any adds in newspapers and TV about the referendum
-Several printers interviened
-Shutting down meetings because they were gatherings of more than 20 people (newly gag law approved 3 years ago)
- shutting down symposiums in other cities in Spain, organized by spaniards just to discuss the situation.
- cutting electricity in other meetings gatherings
- Ballot boxes and ballots are hidden because the GC are looking for them
- Took control of the catalan government accounts
- etc...(I am just speaking by heart)
Inpendentism has some good reasons, Unionism has too. I found them completely respectful. I love spanish people, not so much spanish government (nor catalan), but of course, spanish people will not care that much of catalan problems because they have their own problems, so we can't expect anything about their representative (spanish government). We tried, and ask and ask and ask, for solutions, first fiscal ones, then for a consensual referendum....and nothing. So we go in our own.
Carvajal acuse us about brainwashing. Of course it is, like any other political viewing. If 10 years ago it was about 20% independentism, and now is 45-55% is because you did something wrong. If +1 - 2.5 million people goes to the street and you ignore them, is your problem.
What is happening the 1st of October is not only about independentism. Is about democracy. If what the spanish government is doing in the points mention before would be done in Saudi Arabia for a civil rights referendum, they would accuse them of repression and dictatorship. The ones that don't want the referendum, they shield in that is illegal. Well, not trying to compare AT ALL what I will say now with the catalan situation, is just the analogy of illegality. BUt Slavery was legal, divorce was illegal, homosexuality was illegal, woman suffrage was illegal...and the ones that agreed with it were saying "oh, but is illegal". Because is ok for them to impose through the law, not of what is just. And asking your people, even if you don't like the result, is the most just form to rule. Because you are a representative, not the people.
What I think it will happen is that spanish government will size ballot boxes and ballots on the 1st, and if necessary will use force. The catalan government said that it will declare the independence if it happens. It that happens, it will be more force. Catalonia will not be independence, that is a fact, but the indpeendentism will grow. where it will drive us? nobody knows.
Anyway, if you arrived here, thanks for hearing the rant, and sorry to not be able to answer as till 10 likes I can't write here. Sorry for my english.
A pleasure to read you all in the Current Events, my favorite forum. Carvajal as well, even if is from Real Madrid and we have a different political point of view