Bundesliga 2018/19

[do.ob]

I still think there's a chance of him leaving, though. But that would be to a club like PSG or Liverpool, where Klopp and Tuchel could convince him with good arguments and perspective. But Dortmund exemplarily, not a chance. Bayern maybe, but less so under Kovac.

Schulz confirmed by Dortmund themselves today.

Brandt confirmed by Leverkusen, pending a medical, according to SID (German sports news agency).
https://sid.de/topnews/?article=1gq8pc&date=20190521

Hazard is supposedly done as well.

As is Morey (RB talent) from Barca, according to Kicker and RN.

Guess that's Dortmund's business done for the summer.


All of them have their question marks of course, but especially selling Pulisic for €65m and replacing him with Brandt and Hazard for ~€50-55m is pretty spectacular by Dortmund's modest standards.

 

[Blackwidow]

Ah - Bayern robbing the rivals of their best players again...

 

[do.ob]

Ah - Bayern robbing the rivals of their best players again...

If Dortmund signing half the squad from German clubs didn't change that cliché, Brand, Hazard and Schulz probably won't either.

 

[Swarm]

If Dortmund signing half the squad from German clubs didn't change that cliché, Brand, Hazard and Schulz probably won't either.

To me it feels like it is mostly Bayern supporters bringing it up whenever Dortmund or Bayern buys a player. Gets really tedious really fast.

Anyways, while I have a lot of question marks about how the team is supposed to line up next season and how all this is supposed to fit together I can't help but get excited about this signing. Awesome player.

 

[GhastlyHun]

To me it feels like it is mostly Bayern supporters bringing it up whenever Dortmund or Bayern buys a player. Gets really tedious really fast.

So.. exactly like the other way around.

 

[do.ob]

To me it feels like it is mostly Bayern supporters bringing it up whenever Dortmund or Bayern buys a player. Gets really tedious really fast.

Anyways, while I have a lot of question marks about how the team is supposed to line up next season and how all this is supposed to fit together I can't help but get excited about this signing. Awesome player.

To me the most likely scenario seems to be:
------------Bürki
Hakimi--Akanji--Diallo--Schulz
------------Witsel
Sancho--Brandt--Reus--Hazard
------------Götze

Against defensive sides. And Delaney for Brandt in more of a 4231 against more attacking sides.

 

[Swarm]

So.. exactly like the other way around.

I always thought this forum was a bit of a safe haven from these annoyances but I guess not. It's not like I am running around complaining about the Goretzka transfer so it always feels a bit uncalled for but I guess there are a few tiring BVB supporters here as well.

 

[Acrobat7]

To me it feels like it is mostly Bayern supporters bringing it up whenever Dortmund or Bayern buys a player. Gets really tedious really fast.

Dortmund is now in a position from a financial and sporting perspective to buy players from 16 teams in the BuLi. And that is what they do.
Remarks about killing the competition are as tedious as they are to be expected. Bayern supporters have been dealing with it for many years. Take it as a compliment, when they throw it back at you. Now you know how it feels, and how stupid those comments are.

 

[do.ob]

So.. exactly like the other way around.

To be honest I think it's mostly people who don't actually follow Bundesliga, but want to be smug, who keep repeating this.

 

[Acrobat7]

To me the most likely scenario seems to be:
------------Bürki
Hakimi--Akanji--Diallo--Schulz
------------Witsel
Sancho--Brandt--Reus--Hazard
------------Götze

Against defensive sides. And Delaney for Brandt in more of a 4231 against more attacking sides.

My remarks were along those lines in Brandts transfer thread.

 

[Swarm]

To me the most likely scenario seems to be:
------------Bürki
Hakimi--Akanji--Diallo--Schulz
------------Witsel
Sancho--Brandt--Reus--Hazard
------------Götze

Against defensive sides. And Delaney for Brandt in more of a 4231 against more attacking sides.

Yeah I guess that might be the idea but that is defensively dubious as hell. Especially considering neither Schulz nor Hakimi are famed for their defensive strengths. The Schulz transfer and Morey for RB who seems quite attack minded as well it seems like they could be looking to play a 3-5-2 next season. That would of course only increase question marks regarding all those attacking players so honestly I am not sure I am a huge fan of the transfers so far. The players by themselves I like a lot, the team composition not necessarily.

 

[Swarm]

Dortmund is now in a position from a financial and sporting perspective to buy players from 16 teams in the BuLi. And that is what they do.
Remarks about killing the competition are as tedious as they are to be expected. Bayern supporters have been dealing with it for many years. Take it as a compliment, when they throw it back at you. Now you know how it feels, and how stupid those comments are.

Yeah, I have seen these comments and didn't really react. What irks me is a) there was actually no other aspect to the comment, nothing actually insightful and b) I just find it curious that it is so far exclusively Bayern supporters. All other clubs I can understand the frustration a lot more. Anyways, I will drop this now since it really doesn't matter.

 

[do.ob]

Yeah I guess that might be the idea but that is defensively dubious as hell. Especially considering neither Schulz nor Hakimi are famed for their defensive strengths. The Schulz transfer and Morey for RB who seems quite attack minded as well it seems like they could be looking to play a 3-5-2 next season. That would of course only increase question marks regarding all those attacking players so honestly I am not sure I am a huge fan of the transfers so far. The players by themselves I like a lot, the team composition not necessarily.

I could see the 4141 work against most Bundesliga sides, because if Dortmund's game plan works they just sit in their own half anyway. The rest kind of depends on Favre's flexibility. Hakimi and Schulz should be more than comfortable playing as wing backs, Piszczek and Diallo are also very defensively sound alternatives to them, he can make lots of adaptations to specific opponents.

 

[Acrobat7]

Yeah, I have seen these comments and didn't really react. What irks me is a) there was actually no other aspect to the comment, nothing actually insightful and b) I just find it curious that it is so far exclusively Bayern supporters. All other clubs I can understand the frustration a lot more. Anyways, I will drop this now since it really doesn't matter.

It is exclusively Bayern supporters since they are the biggest group here and they are the ones who have heard it from Dortmund supporters over the last years.
It always was a stupid argument to make, so I totally agree with you btw.

 

[Zehner]

Schulz confirmed by Dortmund themselves today.

Brandt confirmed by Leverkusen, pending a medical, according to SID (German sports news agency).
https://sid.de/topnews/?article=1gq8pc&date=20190521

Hazard is supposedly done as well.

As is Morey (RB talent) from Barca, according to Kicker and RN.

Guess that's Dortmund's business done for the summer.


All of them have their question marks of course, but especially selling Pulisic for €65m and replacing him with Brandt and Hazard for ~€50-55m is pretty spectacular by Dortmund's modest standards.

There were more and more hints in the last few days so I'm not that surprised. But I still don't understand Brandt. If he plays for Dortmund like he played for Leverkusen he's already far too good for them. And if not he should've stayed with us to play under Bosz for another year. A complete season in the form he had since February and he'd be one of the most wanted prospects in the world with 30+ scorers as a CM. Really, he was already more than good enough for Liverpool or PSG and would've had German coaches there.

However, I like Dortmund and I wish Brandt the very best. Amazing signing by the BVB.

 

[do.ob]

There were more and more hints in the last few days so I'm not that surprised. But I still don't understand Brandt. If he plays for Dortmund like he played for Leverkusen he's already far too good for them. And if not he should've stayed with us to play under Bosz for another year. A complete season in the form he had since February and he'd be one of the most wanted prospects in the world with 30+ scorers as a CM. Really, he was already more than good enough for Liverpool or PSG and would've had German coaches there.

However, I like Dortmund and I wish Brandt the very best. Amazing signing by the BVB.

I think you're over rating Brandt a bit. He's shown his current form for half a season, before that he had some really bad spells. For Dortmund or even bigger clubs won't be such an integral player with such freedoms, at least not without spending some months earning it.
So I don't think it's likely for him to just replicate his recent performances at a new club. He will have to adapt, face more competition and more pressure, perhaps he will struggle a bit. Dortmund don't require him to adjust to a new league or new country, they are very quick to reward good performances with trust and given that Brandt will be a marquee signing for them rather than a bargain , they will perhaps be more committed to making things work with him.

 

[Acrobat7]

I think you're over rating Brandt a bit. He's shown his current form for half a season, before that he had some really bad spells. For Dortmund or even bigger clubs won't be such an integral player with such freedoms, at least not without spending some months earning it.
So I don't think it's likely for him to just replicate his recent performances at a new club. He will have to adapt, face more competition and more pressure, perhaps he will struggle a bit. Dortmund don't require him to adjust to a new league or new country, they are very quick to reward good performances with trust and given that Brandt will be a marquee signing for them rather than a bargain , they will perhaps be more committed to making things work with him.

I completely agree with you. He is VERY talented, but in no way is he already „too big“ for a club like Dortmund.

 

[Zehner]

I think you're over rating Brandt a bit. He's shown his current form for half a season, before that he had some really bad spells. For Dortmund or even bigger clubs won't be such an integral player with such freedoms, at least not without spending some months earning it.
So I don't think it's likely for him to just replicate his recent performances at a new club. He will have to adapt, face more competition and more pressure, perhaps he will struggle a bit. Dortmund don't require him to adjust to a new league or new country, they are very quick to reward good performances with trust and given that Brandt will be a marquee signing for them rather than a bargain , they will perhaps be more committed to making things work with him.

I completely agree with you. He is VERY talented, but in no way is he already „too big“ for a club like Dortmund.

I wonder how many Leverkusen matches under Bosz you have seen. Brandt has been criminally misused throughout large parts of his career with the all time low being Herrlich (and Löw) shoehorning him to the right wing, holding the line and sending crosses into the box. Before that the only capable coach he had was Roger Schmidt and although I think he's a good coach, his system is almost the complete opposite of Brandt's strengthes - besides being very young back then. That's also why I don't think consistency was his issue. The only reason he came across as inconsistent (despite being one of our best scorers season after season) is that he was never played in his best position until Bosz took over.

What Brandt has done in the second part of this season was easily the best "half season" I've seen from any Leverkusen player, including players like Ballack, Berbatov, Ze Roberto, Vidal, Havertz and so forth. Let him play 17 games like that for Dortmund and I guarantee you every top club in the world will be after him immediately.
If Favre uses Brandt the way Bosz used him, some people will be very surprised of how good the guy actually is. Anyway, that's still a big if IMO. Favre's system is still very different to Bosz' and if Brandt will be played at the left or even right wing (and that's where Dortmund has vacancies..), he'll be the inconsistent and criticised Brandt again. Hope that won't be the case but if so then the next season could be quite disillusioning for him.

 

[Atze-Peng]

Schulz confirmed by Dortmund themselves today.

Brandt confirmed by Leverkusen, pending a medical, according to SID (German sports news agency).
https://sid.de/topnews/?article=1gq8pc&date=20190521

Hazard is supposedly done as well.

As is Morey (RB talent) from Barca, according to Kicker and RN.

Guess that's Dortmund's business done for the summer.


All of them have their question marks of course, but especially selling Pulisic for €65m and replacing him with Brandt and Hazard for ~€50-55m is pretty spectacular by Dortmund's modest standards.

Not really. There is a lot of action still going to happen. Philipp, Dahoud, Weigl, Toprak, Guerreiro and Schmelzer are quite likely candidates to leave. Add to it Schürrle, Rode, Kagawa, Toljan and Passlack coming back from loans quite unsucessfully. So it's gonna be tough, because those players eat up way too much of the wages budget without performing well enough.
Philipp, Dahoud, Weigl and Guerreiro shouldn't be much of a problem to sell and probably gain 40+ million and free up 10+ million in the wages.
Toprak depends on how important it is for him to play vs keeping his current wage (~6million).
Rode has at least only one year left in his contract. But he didn't fully succeed at Frankfurt (the second half was better, tho) and unfortunately got injured towards the end of the season.
Schürrle has two more years and high wages. Gonna be a mess to get rid of him for sure. Let's hope some other english club wants to. Either way, one of our worst signings in the last decades. It will be a massive lost either way (if it at least weren't for his injuries) and I hope this chapter is going to end as soon as problem.
Kagawa shouldn't be much of a problem as I think he will be willing to sign for a lower wage as long as he has a good chance to get regular playtime. Toljan and Passlack don't eat too much wages. So they shouldn't be a big issue, either.

All in all if this works out I think it should give the club 50+ million € (which essentially is two of the three new expensive players) and free up over 20 million € in the wage-budget. Especially the later is important as a lot of the income from the Aubameyang and Dembele transfers were eaten up by wages of the players Tuchel wanted. Meaning the 65 million of Pullisic brings in doesn't solve the 15,5 mio of Balerdi (who I think should still be a 2019 transfer, but don't pin me down on it), the 23 mio of Paco and the ~80 Mio of Schulz, Hazard and Brandt.


To sum it up:


Signings

Balerdi -> 15,5 Mio
Paco -> 23 Mio
Schulz -> 27 Mio
Brandt -> 25 Mio
Hazard -> 28 Mio (somewhere close to 30 I assume)

All in all: 118,5 Mio + In need of 1-2 more players.
Probably in central MF, but depends on what tactics we are going to use next year. Pretty sure another 20-30 Mio signing will be coming, if we can get rid of our squad corpses. Especially the recent statement of Watzke saying we finally will declare the Meisterschaft as our aim makes me think we will take a reasonable risk this summer with our signings.


Leaves

Pullisic -> 64 Mio


Potential Leaves

Weigl -> 10-15 Mio (kinda depends who is interested. If Guardiola and/or Tuchel are still interested, the fee can be quite a bit higher)
Dahoud -> 10 Mio
Guerreiro -> 15 Mio
Philipp -> 10-15 Mio
Toprak -> 4-5 Mio
Schmelzer -> 1 Mio
Toljan -> 1 Mio or another loan
Passlack -> 0,5 Mio or another loan
Kagawa -> 1 Mio
Rode -> 2-3 Mio if he is willing to take wage cuts
Schürrle -> Big question mark.

-> 55-65 Mio

I generally try to play it low. Chances are Weigl, Dahoud, Philipp and Guerreiro can go for more than that in the current market. But I don't want to take chances in the planning. This means if things go reasonably well we should be about even with the current signings vs cleaning the squad. More importantly is to get rid of Schmelzer, Toprak, Kagawa, Rode and Schürrle as they together should eat up around 20-25 mio wages.

Additionally there are rumours of selling Diallo for 50+ Mio to PSG and get Niklas Stark who has a 25 mio clause apparently.


The final lineup for first and second team will look like this:

GK: Bürki, Hitz

CD: Diallo, Akanji, Zagadou Balerdi

WB: Piszczek, Schulz, Hakimi, Wolf, Morey

CM: Witsel, Delaney, Gomez, XXX

Attacking MF: Reus, Sancho, Hazard, Brandt, Bruun Larsen (who I still think can make a jump in performance), Wolf

Striker: Götze, Paco


Depending on what tactics we play we might still want one more WB, CM and/or Attacking MF. That mostly depends, if we stick with our current tactics or if we maybe go into a 4-1-4-1.
Overall it looks pretty good, though. The strongest Dortmund Squad since the last Meisterschaft - at least on paper.

 

[do.ob]

I wonder how many Leverkusen matches under Bosz you have seen. Brandt has been criminally misused throughout large parts of his career with the all time low being Herrlich (and Löw) shoehorning him to the right wing, holding the line and sending crosses into the box. Before that the only capable coach he had was Roger Schmidt and although I think he's a good coach, his system is almost the complete opposite of Brandt's strengthes - besides being very young back then. That's also why I don't think consistency was his issue. The only reason he came across as inconsistent (despite being one of our best scorers season after season) is that he was never played in his best position until Bosz took over.

What Brandt has done in the second part of this season was easily the best "half season" I've seen from any Leverkusen player, including players like Ballack, Berbatov, Ze Roberto, Vidal, Havertz and so forth. Let him play 17 games like that for Dortmund and I guarantee you every top club in the world will be after him immediately.
If Favre uses Brandt the way Bosz used him, some people will be very surprised of how good the guy actually is. Anyway, that's still a big if IMO. Favre's system is still very different to Bosz' and if Brandt will be played at the left or even right wing (and that's where Dortmund has vacancies..), he'll be the inconsistent and criticised Brandt again. Hope that won't be the case but if so then the next season could be quite disillusioning for him.

I have no doubt that Brandt has been terrific under Bosz, but my point is that it's quite likely that a different coach at a bigger club with bigger stars than Brandt won't create the same context for him. I would be very much surprised if he can just pick off where he left this season, even if Favre uses him in the center. The question is how well he will adapt and how much will his performances drop and these uncertainties may be a reason why he joined Dortmund.

@Atze-Peng

Sure, some business always remains, but I don't think any of those players aside from Weigl and Guerreiro really are a factor on the sporting side anymore. They will either be sold or they'll sit out their contracts.
And even Weigl and Guerreiro are probably relegated to a squad role by recent signings. I don't think they will be replaced by major signigns if they leave as well.

 

[Atze-Peng]

Sure, some business always remains, but I don't think any of those players aside from Weigl and Guerreiro really are a factor on the sporting side anymore. They will either be sold or they'll sit out their contracts.
And even Weigl and Guerreiro are probably relegated to a squad role by recent signings. I don't think they will be replaced by major signigns if they leave as well.

The transfer fees aren't whats most important here. The wages are. Thus "sitting out their contracts" would be the worst-case scenario, because we are already too high there.

And I think Weigl and Guerreiro are quite likely to leave. I would think the likelihood is even higher than Dahoud who might only be sold, if we get a replacement for him. See my edit for that.

 

[Zehner]

I have no doubt that Brandt has been terrific under Bosz, but my point is that it's quite likely that a different coach at a bigger club with bigger stars than Brandt won't create the same context for him. I would be very much surprised if he can just pick off where he left this season, even if Favre uses him in the center. The question is how well he will adapt and how much will his performances drop and these uncertainties may be a reason why he joined Dortmund.

@Atze-Peng

Sure, some business always remains, but I don't think any of those players aside from Weigl and Guerreiro really are a factor on the sporting side anymore. They will either be sold or they'll sit out their contracts.
And even Weigl and Guerreiro are probably relegated to a squad role by recent signings. I don't think they will be replaced by major signigns if they leave as well.

I fully agree and that's exactly why I simply don't understand this move. If he'd stayed another year in order to confirm his form under Bosz his standing would've been completely different at a new club. It simply makes zero sense at this point in time to go to Dortmund.

 

[do.ob]

I fully agree and that's exactly why I simply don't understand this move. If he'd stayed another year in order to confirm his form under Bosz his standing would've been completely different at a new club. It simply makes zero sense at this point in time to go to Dortmund.

Would it really be completely different? I don't think top 5 clubs look at a 25 year old from Leverkusen and say "yeah, let's make that guy the centerpiece of our team". And imho it's naive to think that you can just extrapolate from the past couple of months. We don't really know how Bosz/Leverkusen will deal with increased expectations, more respect from opponents and midweek CL fixtures. That the overperforming players will conserve their form, that Brandt or another irreplacable player won't get injured. You do make a reasonable argument for staying, but it's not nearly as safe a bet.

On the other hand he has achieved all he can at Leverkusen, he's stayed there for 5 years, so now is a logical moment to take the next step. And the contract he signs now will "expire" when he's in his prime years, still leaving him with the option to aim for the CL, if he keeps developing well.

The transfer fees aren't whats most important here. The wages are. Thus "sitting out their contracts" would be the worst-case scenario, because we are already too high there.

And I think Weigl and Guerreiro are quite likely to leave. I would think the likelihood is even higher than Dahoud who might only be sold, if we get a replacement for him. See my edit for that.

Obviously it's important to trim down the wage bill, but with the recent signings the club seems to have done its first XI signings very early and regardless of that.

 

[Zehner]

Would it really be completely different? I don't think top 5 clubs look at a 25 year old from Leverkusen and say "yeah, let's make that guy the centerpiece of our team". And imho it's naive to think that you can just extrapolate from the past couple of months. We don't really know how Bosz/Leverkusen will deal with increased expectations, more respect from opponents and midweek CL fixtures. That the overperforming players will conserve their form, that Brandt or another irreplacable player won't get injured. You do make a reasonable argument for staying, but it's not nearly as safe a bet.

On the other hand he has achieved all he can at Leverkusen, he's stayed there for 5 years, so now is a logical moment to take the next step. And the contract he signs now will "expire" when he's in his prime years, still leaving him with the option to aim for the CL, if he keeps developing well.



Obviously it's important to trim down the wage bill, but with the recent signings the club seems to have done its first XI signings very early and regardless of that.

See, at the end of the first half of the season we've also been on some kind of a run. But everyone who saw us knew that those were flukes. Under Bosz we can see a clear handwriting, clear impeovements when flaws are identified and so forth. We suffocate opposition teams through 70+% possession and in most games you can hardly see us dropping points whatsoever. All this just seems like a sustainable development, not a short term run of form unleashed by a change in management. And the same can be said about Brandt. Our system brought him constantly in situations in which he could utilize his strengthes.

You make some good points, though. You don't get the same attention at Leverkusen as you get in Dortmund but still, Havertz is one of the most wanted youngsters in world fotball right now. And most top clubs are looking to sign players wo are around the same age Brandt is right now. Nowadays 26-27 years is almost already too old to nove to a top club and it significantly reduces your chances of a major title, too. If you play 8-10 years for a team like Madrid, Barca or City, your chances of winning the CL get pretty solid but not when it's 3-5 years.

And you also shouldn't ignore the current trend. Both Leverkusen and Dortmund ended the second half on 34 points. But we changed our manager in the very short winter break and dropped many points due to our defense having issues adopting the new style of play while Dortmund was very lucky in multiple matches. And we should've gotten at least 7 points out of the matches against Gladbach (first game under Bosz, atrocious chance conversion), Leipzig (screwed over by VAR, again a great overweight of chances) and Dortmund. Especially if you take a closer look at how we dominated Dortmund in the first 20 minutes, I'm not too sure the currently perceived balance of powers won't undergo a considerable shift next season.

 

[Atze-Peng]

Obviously it's important to trim down the wage bill, but with the recent signings the club seems to have done its first XI signings very early and regardless of that.

Agreed. As I said - we are going to take a reasonable risk this year. Worst case scenario wouldn't be able to get rid of some of the listed players. But even then it wouldn't bring us back into a risky situation - albeit it can mean we might have to sell someone like Diallo as a result. As I said, a reasonable risk.

That being said - Watzke and Zorc are probably one of the best leading-duos in the world right now. Sure, not everything they do is perfect (Immobile, Schürrle, Rode) - but that's sport. You can make reasonable investments and it still doesn't pay off. And other times it does (Dembele and now Sancho). And not like they were / are bad players, it just didn't work out for various reasons. On the other hand we are improving our financial situation consistently, building up a stronger squad and get good/talented players for pretty reasonable prices by having a really strong scouting and everything.

Not to forget the most savage moment of BVB-History when Niebaum wanted the supervisory board to back him up and the then bursar Watzke replied: "What is that supposed to be, Gerd? You know that I don't trust you."


Anyhow. I'm positive we will be able to clean up our squad mostly. And depending on how successful we are with that, I'm pretty confident that one more rather big signing (15mio+) will be coming to round everything up.

 

[hasanejaz88]

Would be really sad to see Weigl leave Dortmund given how good he was at the start of his career under Tuchel. I thought the higher role he got at the end of the year, though it was at CB, meant he might have had a role next season.

Disappointed in how Dahoud turned out as well, I remember when he came I thought he and Weigl would not only be the staple of Dortmunds midfield for years to come but also Germany.

As much as I like Witsel and Delaeny (though they can get better than Delaeny), it still disappoints me that the number of Germans in the starting eleven are going down.

 

[kaiser1]

Dortmund confirms Brandt signing

 

[Keeps It tidy]

Dortmund keep poaching the best players from German clubs... Sorry I had to.

 

[do.ob]

See, at the end of the first half of the season we've also been on some kind of a run. But everyone who saw us knew that those were flukes. Under Bosz we can see a clear handwriting, clear impeovements when flaws are identified and so forth. We suffocate opposition teams through 70+% possession and in most games you can hardly see us dropping points whatsoever. All this just seems like a sustainable development, not a short term run of form unleashed by a change in management. And the same can be said about Brandt. Our system brought him constantly in situations in which he could utilize his strengthes.


You make some good points, though. You don't get the same attention at Leverkusen as you get in Dortmund but still, Havertz is one of the most wanted youngsters in world fotball right now. And most top clubs are looking to sign players wo are around the same age Brandt is right now. Nowadays 26-27 years is almost already too old to nove to a top club and it significantly reduces your chances of a major title, too. If you play 8-10 years for a team like Madrid, Barca or City, your chances of winning the CL get pretty solid but not when it's 3-5 years.

And you also shouldn't ignore the current trend. Both Leverkusen and Dortmund ended the second half on 34 points. But we changed our manager in the very short winter break and dropped many points due to our defense having issues adopting the new style of play while Dortmund was very lucky in multiple matches. And we should've gotten at least 7 points out of the matches against Gladbach (first game under Bosz, atrocious chance conversion), Leipzig (screwed over by VAR, again a great overweight of chances) and Dortmund. Especially if you take a closer look at how we dominated Dortmund in the first 20 minutes, I'm not too sure the currently perceived balance of powers won't undergo a considerable shift next season.

In my experience most football teams don't develop in straight lines, it's full of sometimes unexpected ups and downs. Players lose form, get injured, oppositions eventually figure out a way to deal with your approach forcing you to reinvent yourself to some degree, sometimes you can, sometimes you fail at it. Bosz's first six months could be the beginning of something bigger, but they could also be an early peak.


You bring up both teams finishing on 34 points in 2019, which is a valid point. But just look at how do both clubs react to it? Leverkusen seem overjoyed, while Dortmund are happy with their total tally, but dissatisfied with their 34 point bottle job. Dortmund sells a squad player and buys three of the season's strongest performers, Leverkusen is looking (failing) to keep their squad together and perhaps sign Hamburg's LB?! Dortmund's pitch will be that they came very close to winning the title and now they made significant investments in order to challenge again for (or win) the title next season. Can Leverkusen sell similar ambitions? Maybe Dortmund will flop and Leverkusen will improve, but I don't think players or bookies will see that as likely. It's part of the financial realities of football, it's not an even competition. Bayern does to Dortmund what Dortmund does to Leverkusen what Leverkusen does to teams like Hoffenheim.

BTW: iirc the biggest clubs either weren't that interested in Brandt, or he rejected them early, since according to Kicker the strongest competition for Brandt's signature came from Atletico and Spurs.

Would be really sad to see Weigl leave Dortmund given how good he was at the start of his career under Tuchel. I thought the higher role he got at the end of the year, though it was at CB, meant he might have had a role next season.

Disappointed in how Dahoud turned out as well, I remember when he came I thought he and Weigl would not only be the staple of Dortmunds midfield for years to come but also Germany.

As much as I like Witsel and Delaeny (though they can get better than Delaeny), it still disappoints me that the number of Germans in the starting eleven are going down.

During the winter break it seemed very clear that he would leave this summer, but since he's transitioned to CB it's less obvious, if Favre actually rates him there and would consider him as a starter next season then everything has changed.

I too think that Dahoud's case is quite disappointing, he's got a lot of things to be a key midfielder, creativity, aggression, a bit of physicality, good technique and dribbling skills.
Yet he never really imposed himself over a longer period. I could see him really do well at a smaller club, where there is less pressure and more trust and space for him, but at the moment I can't see him make it at Dortmund.

 

[Zehner]

In my experience most football teams don't develop in straight lines, it's full of sometimes unexpected ups and downs. Players lose form, get injured, oppositions eventually figure out a way to deal with your approach forcing you to reinvent yourself to some degree, sometimes you can, sometimes you fail at it. Bosz's first six months could be the beginning of something bigger, but they could also be an early peak.


You bring up both teams finishing on 34 points in 2019, which is a valid point. But just look at how do both clubs react to it? Leverkusen seem overjoyed, while Dortmund are happy with their total tally, but dissatisfied with their 34 point bottle job. Dortmund sells a squad player and buys three of the season's strongest performers, Leverkusen is looking (failing) to keep their squad together and perhaps sign Hamburg's LB?! Dortmund's pitch will be that they came very close to winning the title and now they made significant investments in order to challenge again for (or win) the title next season. Can Leverkusen sell similar ambitions? Maybe Dortmund will flop and Leverkusen will improve, but I don't think players or bookies will see that as likely. It's part of the financial realities of football, it's not an even competition. Bayern does to Dortmund what Dortmund does to Leverkusen what Leverkusen does to teams like Hoffenheim.

BTW: iirc the biggest clubs either weren't that interested in Brandt, or he rejected them early, since according to Kicker the strongest competition for Brandt's signature came from Atletico and Spurs.




During the winter break it seemed very clear that he would leave this summer, but since he's transitioned to CB it's less obvious, if Favre actually rates him there and would consider him as a starter next season then everything has changed.

I too think that Dahoud's case is quite disappointing, he's got a lot of things to be a key midfielder, creativity, aggression, a bit of physicality, good technique and dribbling skills.
Yet he never really imposed himself over a longer period. I could see him really do well at a smaller club, where there is less pressure and more trust and space for him, but at the moment I can't see him make it at Dortmund.

Can't disagree with any of your points. Dortmund is of course in another tier than us, no denying that, and even if we indeed would manage to finish before them that alone wouldn't change a thing. Dortmund built what they are now over almost 10 years by now. In the same way, Hoffenheim isn't on eye level with us just because they bested us throughtout the last 3-4 seasons, as they Demirbay signing proved. But the very reason Hoffenheim managed was Nagelsmann and I have the feeling Bosz has a similar impact on our squad. Ever since the first season under Roger Schmidt I have the feeling that it's the system that carries the players instead of the other way round. And the one that profited the most from it was Brandt. That's what I don't understand.

I also don't think that there were no bigger interests. Have the feeling that Brandt didn't feel ready or wanted to stay in Germany. PSG with Tuchel and FFP in mind were definitely interested and the same goes for Klopp and Liverpool's lack of a creative CM. This would be a typical Brandt decision, though I don't understand it at all this time. Then again he probably wouldn't have stayed that long if he wasn't that risk avoiding.

 

[2ndTouch]

I also don't think that there were no bigger interests. Have the feeling that Brandt didn't feel ready or wanted to stay in Germany. PSG with Tuchel and FFP in mind were definitely interested and the same goes for Klopp and Liverpool's lack of a creative CM. This would be a typical Brandt decision, though I don't understand it at all this time. Then again he probably wouldn't have stayed that long if he wasn't that risk avoiding.

Well, he probaby just tripled his salary, joined a far bigger club while doing so, and doesn't even need to move (this is like what, a 30 minutes drive or so) to accomplish it.
It's the safe option, sure, but what's so hard to understand about it? He can easily play in Dortmund for 2 or 3 seasons, and still move on then.

 

[FootballHQ]

Paderborn:

13/14 promoted to Bundesliga
14/15 relegated from Bundesliga
15/16 relegated from 2. Bundesliga
16/17 relegated from 3. Liga - only to be saved by 1860 Munich not being able to obtain a Licence
17/18 promoted to 2. Bundesliga
18/19 promoted to Bundesliga

I was randomly watching one of their games a few seasons back and Effenberg was managing, seems he only last three months as a manager. I remember the Breitenreiter led team in the Bundesliga and they gave it a decent go. Didn't realise they nearly went down to the regional leagues, thought the rot had stopped after relegation from Bundesliga 2 which it now has.

 

[::sonny::]

Dortmund confirms Brandt signing

Immense player, fantastic to watch

 

[memelord]

Dortmund confirms Brandt signing

Absolute bargain. Hopefully Favre gives him the freedom to work his magic in the final third.

 

[do.ob]

Apparently tomorrow's Kicker claims that Kovac is very likely to keep his job, no matter the outcome of the cup final.

 

[hasanejaz88]

Apparently tomorrow's Kicker claims that Kovac is very likely to keep his job, no matter the outcome of the cup final.

It's difficult to gauge Kovac's season. While winning the league with arguably Bayern's weakest squad since the 10/11 season is an achievement and their second half performances were great (13W 3D 1L), a lot of it was also down to Dortmund choking towards the end of gifting them a way back with those draws. And ofcourse you also have that shambolic performance against Liverpool in the UCL. Losing to Liverpool, considering that they reached their second UCL final in a row and dominated the EPL like few teams have before, is not to be embarrassed with but the way they lose was certainly embarrassing and a reason why many fans would've wanted him out.

That being said, I don't think there is an issue with letting him continue for one more season, they way he had his team recover in the second half of the season deserves it. You will also have a very new and young team with whom you can afford one disappointing season with neither a league or cup win. You wouldn't expect those players to either decline in future, where you could argue that the coach needs to get the best of them before they get worse, nor would you think they will leave after one average season given that they just joined. Bayern will still definitely reach the UCL spot in worst case scenario so the players will stay on and Bayern look for a new coach next season.

 

[Atze-Peng]

After having done a write-up about the Dortmund line-up, I also thought about the current state of Bayern. To make it short: I think there was a massive mismanagement to not renew the squad 1-2 years earlier. Now this seems like a giant task that I don't think can be done in 1 summer. Even 2 summers might be pushing it on the current market.


So let's look at the squad:


GK: Neuer / Ulreich
It overall seems okish. Albeit have to be seen if Neuer will further decline next year or if he will recover. With 33 he isn't the youngest and there are rumours about Alexander Nübel. Albeit knowing Bayerns usual strategies and Schalkes incompetence, there is a reasonable chance they will wait until next year to get him without a transfer fee.


CB: Hummels, Süle, Hernandez, Pavard
Departure: Boateng - I strongly assume Hummels will stay, if Bayern doesn't tell him to feck off.
Costs: 115€ Mio for Hernandez + Pavard. In return Boateng probably will be sold for 25-30 Mio. Let's be optimistic here and assume 30.

This leaves with a cost of 85 Mio instead of going for Stark (25 Mio clause) rather than Hernandez and having 55 Mios for other more necessary positions. Nothing against Hernandez. He surely is a class player and surely above Stark, but I think the CB is together with the CM the least troublesome position for Bayern. Bayern simply put the wrong priorities here, I think.


WB: Alaba & Kimmich - That's it.
Bayern really needs decent backups here. Backups that don't lose too much quality. This will cost at the very least 20 Mio - 10 Mio for each. And that's already fairly optimistic. Costs for a good wingback can also be even higher, but Bayern needs to invest here, because they can't just go with talents as backups. For that their own aspiration is way too high. Filipe Luis might be a fairly cheap option, but there are no rumours so far.


CM: Martinez, Thiago, Goretzka, Tolisso, Sanches

Probably their strongest part. 5 players for 3 positions on #6, #8 and/or #10 is fine. Maybe a talent as a squad-player and Bayern is set. The only criticism here is that Martinez is their only defensively oriented central midfielder. And he is someone who is always good for an injury or two in a season. Anyhow. The squad looks strong here.


Wings: Coman, Gnabry, Davies, Jeong, Müller.
Jeong isn't far enough. Davies might not be, either and has to be seen how he develops. Müller is a candidate to get rid of I think - especially since it's been a while that he started to decline while still eating up a fairly high wage. But even if he stays, I don't think he is more than a squad-player at this point. No one who makes the difference anymore. And too expensive for that role.
That leaves Coman and Gnabry as the topplayers. Both are quality, but they aren't comparable to Robbery. The later two could always make a break a game. Coman and Gnabry I think are good at what they do and definitely international class, but ... let's say they aren't the players who create magic. They "just" deliver. Additionally they aren't exactly the most sturdy, either, with both having quite the injury-history.

Thus something needs to happen here. Either Bayern invests into a pretty good player that can compete with Coman and Gnabry (Hazard would've been an option here, but he's at Dortmund now) and pays 30-40 Mio for that. Or they agree with my assessment and want a player who can create magic. The rumours about Sane might be confirming that. But Sane will be easily 100 Million as he has 2 more years contract and ManCity is probably the worst to bargain as they don't have any need to sell even if the wages are expensive.
Furthermore I don't think - in case he will leave - Müller is still worth anywhere above to 30 Mio at this point.
So the question is if Bayern goes all in for a big transfer or goes with soemone like Neres, Ziyech or Pépé who will all go for 45+.

Costs: 15Mio and upwards.


Striker: Lewandowski, Arp

Arp is at best a talent and no direct alternative. Bayern should be beyond happy that Lewandowski is such a machine who is literally without injury. Never been injured for longer than a week in his entire fecking career. What a beast. That being said, he ain't getting younger and with age this might change eventually. And Müller really isn't a striker nor do I think Bayern will go into the season with Müller&Arp as backups. If they do and Lewandowski really gonna have an injury, the media will have a feast and shit all over Bayern. A risk Bayern will not take after this season with all the shit around Kovac.

Thats one reason I don't think Werner will be waited out until his contract runs out. The other reason is that I wouldn't put it past Ragnick and the financial means he has with Red Bull as a backup to sit Werner out before the next EC. Werner and his agent surely know that. Not to mention that not buying Werner now might also make other clubs take a shot and go in for the signing. Either way, Werner will not be cheap. 40+ for sure.


Costs: Werner + Arp 43+ mio



Altogether: 163 Mio AT THE VERY MINIMUM. And that's when I calculated this optimistically and without wanting to go in for players that can make a difference like Sane. If they want that then they could easily go up to 250-350 Mio and even Bayern can't do that with their "Festgeldkonto" (Hoeneß always talking about how much backup money they have). So this development will most likely take two years in the making and the years of saving money will have to be invested, because Bayern will not take chances with their international performance. If they were to say "let's just not perform too big on the international stage for 1-2 years", things would be much easier. But they will not. It doesn't suit Bayerns self-image.

So this is gonna be a really expensive period for Bayern, because they failed to make that necessary move 1-2 years ago. And at this point transfer fees are so high that even Bayern needs to think twice by now. On the other hand this is a grand opportunity for Dortmund to catch up and maybe snatch one or two league-titles. And even then, so far I don't see Bayern having that Uber-Team this time around, if they do't go for some borderline 3-digit signings. Albeit a very good one nonetheless.

 

[strongwalker]

After having done a write-up about the Dortmund line-up, I also thought about the current state of Bayern. To make it short: I think there was a massive mismanagement to not renew the squad 1-2 years earlier. Now this seems like a giant task that I don't think can be done in 1 summer. Even 2 summers might be pushing it on the current market.


So let's look at the squad:


GK: Neuer / Ulreich
It overall seems okish. Albeit have to be seen if Neuer will further decline next year or if he will recover. With 33 he isn't the youngest and there are rumours about Alexander Nübel. Albeit knowing Bayerns usual strategies and Schalkes incompetence, there is a reasonable chance they will wait until next year to get him without a transfer fee.

I can't help to think there is something about Neuers foot-injuries they're not telling. It seems that at this time, he may be able to play a few more years, or walk off the field in his next match at min 30 never to be seen again. Tough situation for the decision makers because no one wants to look stupid having paid top € for a young top GK who may not be needed. They keep talking about how big Früchtl may be one day, but we've heard this before *cough* Rensing *cough Kraft. Bayern is a catastrophe raising homegrown GKs.

CB: Hummels, Süle, Hernandez, Pavard
Departure: Boateng - I strongly assume Hummels will stay, if Bayern doesn't tell him to feck off.

WB: Alaba & Kimmich - That's it.

Definitely two good signings; Pavard was good value for money. Hernandez is an unusual one by Bayern standards, wouldn't have expected them to spend that kind of money on a defender, think they were panicking after the mess the first half of the season was. May prove to be brilliant signing.
Agree Hummels will likely stay.

Both Pavard and Hernadez can play FB. Pavard will be at least as good as backups as Rafinha has been, Hernandes has worldclass potential as a winger or in a back row of three. Kimmich is midfield-headed, most likely.

CM: Martinez, Thiago, Goretzka, Tolisso, Sanches

Probably their strongest part. 5 players for 3 positions on #6, #8 and/or #10 is fine. Maybe a talent as a squad-player and Bayern is set. The only criticism here is that Martinez is their only defensively oriented central midfielder. And he is someone who is always good for an injury or two in a season. Anyhow. The squad looks strong here.

You can safely count Sanches out of the equation, he won't be staying. He sometimes has an admirable energy in him, but all too often looks unfocussed, too many small mistakes technically and in his decision making. Not Bayern material, really.
May well be Martinez won't stay either, there were small hints of him wanting back to spain all season long. Overall, that position could do with one or two more signings, i hope the Havertz rumours are true. Again, you can add Kimmich to the midfielders list i guess.

Wings: Coman, Gnabry, Davies, Jeong, Müller.
Jeong isn't far enough. Davies might not be, either and has to be seen how he develops. Müller is a candidate to get rid of I think - especially since it's been a while that he started to decline while still eating up a fairly high wage. But even if he stays, I don't think he is more than a squad-player at this point. No one who makes the difference anymore. And too expensive for that role.
That leaves Coman and Gnabry as the topplayers. Both are quality, but they aren't comparable to Robbery. The later two could always make a break a game. Coman and Gnabry I think are good at what they do and definitely international class, but ... let's say they aren't the players who create magic. They "just" deliver. Additionally they aren't exactly the most sturdy, either, with both having quite the injury-history.

Müller had a couple of very good games after Löw sacked him, i wouldn't count him out and Bayern won't cut him ever, he's the last standing fan favourite after Rib/Rob. If he's leaving, it will be because *he* wants to, but him and his wife just built that huge horses paradise near munich, so i doubt he wants to.
He's a player whose value for a team is not easy to be judged and many a coach struggled with him at the beginning. He knows that at Bayern he has the best chance to be valued.

Agree about the wingers, with Coman more likely to rise from "good" to very good" than Gnabry.
If a midfield of Thiago, Tolisso, Kimmich, Goretzka is supported by a player like Havertz in a central attacking position, you won't need world class wingers, just very good ones.

Striker: Lewandowski, Arp

Arp is a non-entity as is. Zirkzee is rising fast from the youth but i doubt he'll be a viable Lewa stand-in already next year. Its pretty certain Werner is munich-headed, though, so that may take the heat out a bit. Its been a sore wound for all too many years now.

So, signings to come: Werner, hopefully Havertz, one really good winger.

 

[kaiser1]

After having done a write-up about the Dortmund line-up, I also thought about the current state of Bayern. To make it short: I think there was a massive mismanagement to not renew the squad 1-2 years earlier. Now this seems like a giant task that I don't think can be done in 1 summer. Even 2 summers might be pushing it on the current market.

I think we are not giving the FO enough credit, they started the rebuild that early, they got Sule Tolliso, Goretzka, Gnabry, Costa Renato Kimmich and Coman all young and talented. Costa didnt work out
The wing was where they have slacked a little but with benefit of hindsight, some of those wingers we have been linked with in the past to arent lighting it up. like Malcolm, Martial and Alexis Sanchez.

So let's look at the squad:

GK: Neuer / Ulreich
It overall seems okish. Albeit have to be seen if Neuer will further decline next year or if he will recover. With 33 he isn't the youngest and there are rumours about Alexander Nübel. Albeit knowing Bayerns usual strategies and Schalkes incompetence, there is a reasonable chance they will wait until next year to get him without a transfer fee.

I dont know what the issues with Neuers injury are, but Bayern will be looking to replace him with a top international keeper, I watched some Nubel this season and I am not convinced, maybe because he was in that dumpster fire called Schalke. Bayern will still watch Neuer/Ulreich for a season before making a decision.

CB: Hummels, Süle, Hernandez, Pavard
Departure: Boateng - I strongly assume Hummels will stay, if Bayern doesn't tell him to feck off.
Costs: 115€ Mio for Hernandez + Pavard. In return Boateng probably will be sold for 25-30 Mio. Let's be optimistic here and assume 30.

This leaves with a cost of 85 Mio instead of going for Stark (25 Mio clause) rather than Hernandez and having 55 Mios for other more necessary positions. Nothing against Hernandez. He surely is a class player and surely above Stark, but I think the CB is together with the CM the least troublesome position for Bayern. Bayern simply put the wrong priorities here, I think.

I agree that Hernandez was overpriced but we needed someone experienced to pair with Sule. Niklas Stark does not have that profile yet, Stark probably needs to move to a club thats a step up from Hertha, get some European experience before he can be a Bayern solution. Lucas is a French international and grew up in a defensive team like Atletico. he sure can help our defence

WB: Alaba & Kimmich - That's it.
Bayern really needs decent backups here. Backups that don't lose too much quality. This will cost at the very least 20 Mio - 10 Mio for each. And that's already fairly optimistic. Costs for a good wingback can also be even higher, but Bayern needs to invest here, because they can't just go with talents as backups. For that their own aspiration is way too high. Filipe Luis might be a fairly cheap option, but there are no rumours so far.

Pavard and Hernandez are capable full backs. They play as FBs for the French NT

CM: Martinez, Thiago, Goretzka, Tolisso, Sanches

Probably their strongest part. 5 players for 3 positions on #6, #8 and/or #10 is fine. Maybe a talent as a squad-player and Bayern is set. The only criticism here is that Martinez is their only defensively oriented central midfielder. And he is someone who is always good for an injury or two in a season. Anyhow. The squad looks strong here.

James doesn't look like he will be staying. If Sanches leaves then the midfield has Javi Thiago Tolliso and Goretzka. All 4 have injury concerns, there have been rumours linking us to Rodri but I don't think this is a priority for now especially if Harvetz can join in a years time. Kimmich can also play 6

Wings: Coman, Gnabry, Davies, Jeong, Müller.

We need a big talent here and this summer there have been better options in the market. Sane will resolve many problems on that front. I am glad we didnt buy Alexis Martial and the other options e were considering in the last 2 summers. Personally, I have almost written Coman off as an option because of his injuries. These injuries are not making him develop at the right pace. He has also hinted that he might quit football if he gets another of those injuries

Striker: Lewandowski, Arp

Arp is at best a talent and no direct alternative. Bayern should be beyond happy that Lewandowski is such a machine who is literally without injury. Never been injured for longer than a week in his entire fecking career. What a beast. That being said, he ain't getting younger and with age this might change eventually. And Müller really isn't a striker nor do I think Bayern will go into the season with Müller&Arp as backups. If they do and Lewandowski really gonna have an injury, the media will have a feast and shit all over Bayern. A risk Bayern will not take after this season with all the shit around Kovac.

Thats one reason I don't think Werner will be waited out until his contract runs out. The other reason is that I wouldn't put it past Ragnick and the financial means he has with Red Bull as a backup to sit Werner out before the next EC. Werner and his agent surely know that. Not to mention that not buying Werner now might also make other clubs take a shot and go in for the signing. Either way, Werner will not be cheap. 40+ for sure.
Costs: Werner + Arp 43+ mio

I don't think we need Werner. one he isn't Bayern's type of striker, he seems suited more to a counter-attacking style he works better with space in front of him and not so well in tight spaces.
Two, Lewandoski rarely gets injured, I won't want to take Germany's top striker and sit him on the bench waiting for Lewy to get injured

Arp isn't a solution for next season. We can get Max Kruse on a free

I think Kai Harvetz is a must get player. Bayern should offer the type of Keita to Liverpool deal to Leverkusen pay for Harvetz now he moves next window as Leverkusen might not want to lose 2 players in one window

Loan out Arp plus Davies and sell Renato


-------------------------Neuer
-Pavard--Sule--Hernandez--Alaba
-------------Kimmich
----Tolliso(Goretzka)-----Thiago
----Gnabry--Lewy---Sane

Bench: Hummels Martinez, Muller Coman Kruse

 

[do.ob]

Pavard and Hernandez are capable full backs. They play as FBs for the French NT

Höwedes and Mustafi are also world cup winning "FBs". It's one thing to try that stuff at international level, where everything is less sophisticated, less daring and more pragmatic and safety first. But at club level FB is one of the most demanding positions, especially when you want to play dominant attacking football like Bayern.
Having Pavard overlap for Gnabry won't give opposition coaches nightmares.