Bet Your House On One of Our Summer Signings

FrankWhite

Not Frank White
Joined
May 3, 2017
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I know it's early days but I feel very very good about the signings we've brought in this summer.

Yoro, Zirkzee, Mazraoui, De Ligt and Ugarte (assuming here).
I expect very high hit rate on these.
My question is, if you had to place your house on one of these lot becoming a truly elite player for us, who would you pick and why?

For me, it's between Zirkzee and Yoro. Zirkzee because I think he's such a natural fit for our best forwards, he would almost have to go out of his way to not succeed. Yoro on the other hand, oozes so much natural talent for such a young defender, he looks so much in control, all the time and he's a natural cover partner for our other two front foot defenders.

If I had to, I'd settle on Yoro. How about you?
 
De Ligt, easily. He is the only player so far who has already proven to be anywhere near world class at times, so the margin of error is much smaller there.

Yoro has massive potential, maybe even bigger than De Ligts.
But potential is only potential until it's realized. Most players never reach anywhere near their potential, not even the biggest talents.

Zirkzee (and Hojlund) both look very decent. I don't believe their potential is as huge as many would like to think, but I still think they can be quite good.
 
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Annihilate Now! said:
De Ligt

I've been burned by young French prodigies before...
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ifightdragons said:
De Ligt, easily. He is the only player so far who has already proven to be anywhere near world class at times, so the margin of error is much smaller there.

Yoro has massive potential, maybe even bigger than De Ligts.
But potential is only potential until it's realized. Most players never reach anywhere near their potential, not even the biggest talents.

Zirkzee (and Hojlund) both look very decent. I don't believe their potential is as huge as many would like to think, but I still think they can be quite good.
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Two shouts for De Ligt, Interesting. My thing with De ligt is, if he was truly elite, he'd still be at Bayern. This is not to say I expect him to be a bad player. I think he'll be a consistent 6.5 to 7 out 10 performer with very strong intangibles. Very good player but a capped ceiling.
 
Yoro for me, de Ligt's already peaked that night at the Bernabeu.
 
FrankWhite said:
Two shouts for De Ligt, Interesting. My thing with De ligt is, if he was truly elite, he'd still be at Bayern. This is not to say I expect him to be a bad player. I think he'll be a consistent 6.5 to 7 out 10 performer with very strong intangibles. Very good player but a capped ceiling.
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That's a reasonable thing to think. I also wonder why Bayern sold him.

But at least he has had spells at Ajax, Juventus and Bayern where he was top class, if not always consistently. I've seen him in games for all three clubs where he's been absolutely magnificent. There's a reason why nearly 70 000 Bayern fans signed a petition to keep him. He was also probably one of their most sellable assets to accrue some funds. So the reason he was sold could be financially motivated.

So by that logic, it feels like the safest bet to make out of all our new signings, which is your premise.

Yoro isn't a safe bet. But if he realizes his potential - which again, most players don't, not even the biggest talents - then that is a massive payoff. The list of amazing talents that never hit their potential due to either arrested development or injury is ridiculously long. Even within our own academy, not to mention the rest of the world.

So if the premise was who would I take a risky bet on, it would probably be Yoro (or Mazraoui, tbf, I think he looks outstanding).
 
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If he stays fit — admittedly a big if with his history — Mazraoui could be a fan favourite. He’s very technically gifted and seems like a typical good Ajax graduate with his game intelligence.
 
Yoro and Mazraoui (atleast for the price)

Pretty sure about Ugarte if we get him too.
 
ifightdragons said:
That's a reasonable thing to think. I also wonder why Bayern sold him.

But at least he has had spells at Ajax, Juventus and Bayern where he was top class, if not always consistently. I've seen him in games for all three clubs where he's been absolutely magnificent. There's a reason why nearly 70 000 Bayern fans signed a petition to keep him. He was also probably one of their most sellable assets to accrue some funds. So the reason he was sold could be financially motivated.

So by that logic, it feels like the safest bet to make out of all our new signings, which is your premise.

Yoro isn't a safe bet. But if he realizes his potential - which again, most players don't, not even the biggest talents - then that is a massive payoff. The list of amazing talents that never hit their potential due to either arrested development or injury is ridiculously long. Even within our own academy, not to mention the rest of the world.

So if the premise was who would I take a risky bet on, it would probably be Yoro (or Mazraoui, tbf, I think he looks outstanding).
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Interesting safe pick approach. I would agree that it makes him the least likely to be a bust. The premise however is which of these signings is most likely to be truly elite. I.e what's your probably of being an 8.5 out of 10, not your average likely rating out of 10. I.e, being a 7/10 player still loses your house. Without getting too technical about it, I think Ugarte might even have a higher likelihood than De ligt.

Also, from a best fit perspective, my concern with De ligt is how similar he is to Martinez stylistically. They are both front foot defenders and perhaps not the best partners for each other. De ligt is better defensively and aerially while Martinez is a much more polished passer.
All that being said, I hope he becomes truly elite for us.
 
Probably Yoro, just because Madrid wanted him, and they didn't even look for a CB when he went to us.
 
Mazraoui for me, if he can stay fit. Love a fullback with a brain and technical ability
 
De Ligt would be the bookies favourite and the more boring choice. I can’t wait to see him once he’s up to speed.

Yoro looks a phenomenal talent who makes defending look easy.

If we get Ugarte then this is the best window since Hargreaves Nani Anderson etc. We saw what we were missing and went and got the best talent out there that was available, no questions asked. This summer feels like that apart from not going for Neves. Either way it’s positive and I can’t wait to see this team develop.
 
Depends on your expectations.

De Ligt is a player who is already on a high level and a great player in his position. As an organizer type CCB, he's in that "best of the rest" bracket with the likes of Dias and Maguire, and a few others (I picked out these two as they're the most similar to him IMO, Guéhi is another that comes to mind), below the top 2 who are in a league of their own IMO: Saliba and van Dijk. His mental profile seems to be excellent, and ten Hag will surely trust him, and all we need to do is just don't put him in situations where his weaknesses get exposed, so as a wide defender where he can absolutely get done 1v1 vs pacey forwards. At 25, he also likely has at least 6-7 years left at the top level, so if he spends those years at United, he'll be considered a fan favorite, one of the best CBs in the league, and a potential future captain as well. He'll never be THE best defender in the world, though, his profile is simply inferior to the best of the best. But definitely an elite defender that would strengthen any team on the planet.

Yoro definitely has best defender in the world potential, but he needs to be managed carefully, and even if his development goes well, and he isn't overplayed in his early years, he should only be entering those levels in his early 20s. I don't think we will, nor do I believe that we should loan him out, but the club should be looking at William Saliba when planning Yoro's development. He only became a regular starter for a Premier League club at 22 years old. Yoro playing 55-60 games per season for Manchester United in the Premier League + potentially the CL at 18/19/even 20 could do more harm than good in the long-term.

Zirkzee is a good, versatile striker most suited to being a facilitator false 9/"9.5" type for now, and he's at a good age where he is ready to play a lot of games for us from the get go. However, due to his profile/likely role in the team, I don't think elite G/A should be expected of him. I personally think he does have the tools to become more of a goalscorer, and a pure #9, but it's not a given his development will go in that direction, and if it does, it'll probably happen in his mid-to-late twenties, so a few years from now.

Mazraoui is very, very good, up there with the best full-backs in the Premier League just based on ability, but his injury record is sadly a very real concern. If we can somehow "fix" him, though, I think he'll be one of the best signings we've made in the last 11 years, especially value-wise.

Ugarte is the only (potential) signing I'm not on board with, especially for a big fee and high wages, but I'm hoping he proves me wrong if he joins. I just believe his limitations would mean he doesn't have a long-term role as a key player in our project, and spending 50m on such players is not very wise, especially if it makes it more difficult for us to obtain a long-term, elite target for this position in the future, like an Adam Wharton, for example. Don't forget that signing Casemiro for 60m basically meant we gave up on both Kane and Rice, who would've both been attainable players for us just 12 months later.

Overall, de Ligt seems to be the safest answer for your question, but it's important that we don't expect things from these players that they're not capable of. They're all very good players, but that doesn't mean they're capable of doing everything or that they're already the finished article. Realistic expectations and a lot of patience is needed IMO, especially with Yoro and Zirkzee, as I suspect the pitchforks are going to be out as soon as Yoro's rawness surfaces for the first time, and he inevitably makes a few costly mistakes, or when Zirkzee doesn't produce impressive numbers for a striker in his first few season(s).
 
FrankWhite said:
Interesting safe pick approach. I would agree that it makes him the least likely to be a bust. The premise however is which of these signings is most likely to be truly elite. I.e what's your probably of being an 8.5 out of 10, not your average likely rating out of 10. I.e, being a 7/10 player still loses your house. Without getting too technical about it, I think Ugarte might even have a higher likelihood than De ligt.

Also, from a best fit perspective, my concern with De ligt is how similar he is to Martinez stylistically. They are both front foot defenders and perhaps not the best partners for each other. De ligt is better defensively and aerially while Martinez is a much more polished passer.
All that being said, I hope he becomes truly elite for us.
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Ahh I hear you, my bad. I took the whole "bet your house" thing as a call for the safest bet.
Who'd want to put their house down on a risky bet, if you know what I mean?

I'd still probably put both De Ligt and Mazraoui ahead of Yoro as the most likely to become truly elite.
I just prefer being cautious with overpraising really young players until they've played at least a full 3 seasons at the top level.
After seeing so many great talents completely drop off after they go into their early 20s, I'm at best cautiously optimistic.
But I see your reasoning, it makes sense and could well be the case.

It will be interesting to see what our best backline will even look like in a year. The straightforward guess is Shaw - Martinez - De Ligt - Mazraoui, and Yoro as the number one back up.
But who knows, we might even get Branthwaite on the cheap as well in the mix next summer if Everton go down, which seems bloody likely. And Shaw might not even be fit.
 
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Rojofiam said:
Depends on your expectations.

De Ligt is a player who is already on a high level and a great player in his position. As an organizer type CCB, he's in that "best of the rest" bracket with the likes of Dias and Maguire, and a few others (I picked out these two as they're the most similar to him IMO, Guéhi is another that comes to mind), below the top 2 who are in a league of their own IMO: Saliba and van Dijk. His mental profile seems to be excellent, and ten Hag will surely trust him, and all we need to do is just don't put him in situations where his weaknesses get exposed, so as a wide defender where he can absolutely get done 1v1 vs pacey forwards. At 25, he also likely has at least 6-7 years left at the top level, so if he spends those years at United, he'll be considered a fan favorite, one of the best CBs in the league, and a potential future captain as well. He'll never be THE best defender in the world, though, his profile is simply inferior to the best of the best. But definitely an elite defender that would strengthen any team on the planet.

Yoro definitely has best defender in the world potential, but he needs to be managed carefully, and even if his development goes well, and he isn't overplayed in his early years, he should only be entering those levels in his early 20s. I don't think we will, nor do I believe that we should loan him out, but the club should be looking at William Saliba when planning Yoro's development. He only became a regular starter for a Premier League club at 22 years old. Yoro playing 55-60 games per season for Manchester United in the Premier League + potentially the CL at 18/19/even 20 could do more harm than good in the long-term.

Zirkzee is a good, versatile striker most suited to being a facilitator false 9/"9.5" type for now, and he's at a good age where he is ready to play a lot of games for us from the get go. However, due to his profile/likely role in the team, I don't think elite G/A should be expected of him. I personally think he does have the tools to become more of a goalscorer, and a pure #9, but it's not a given his development will go in that direction, and if it does, it'll probably happen in his mid-to-late twenties, so a few years from now.

Mazraoui is very, very good, up there with the best full-backs in the Premier League just based on ability, but his injury record is sadly a very real concern. If we can somehow "fix" him, though, I think he'll be one of the best signings we've made in the last 11 years, especially value-wise.

Ugarte is the only (potential) signing I'm not on board with, especially for a big fee and high wages, but I'm hoping he proves me wrong if he joins. I just believe his limitations would mean he doesn't have a long-term role as a key player in our project, and spending 50m on such players is not very wise, especially if it makes it more difficult for us to obtain a long-term, elite target for this position in the future, like an Adam Wharton, for example. Don't forget that signing Casemiro for 60m basically meant we gave up on both Kane and Rice, who would've both been attainable players for us just 12 months later.

Overall, de Ligt seems to be the safest answer for your question, but it's important that we don't expect things from these players that they're not capable of. They're all very good players, but that doesn't mean they're capable of doing everything or that they're already the finished article. Realistic expectations and a lot of patience is needed IMO, especially with Yoro and Zirkzee, as I suspect the pitchforks are going to be out as soon as Yoro's rawness surfaces for the first time, and he inevitably makes a few costly mistakes, or when Zirkzee doesn't produce impressive numbers for a striker in his first few season(s).
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Great post. I might be biased, because I happen to agree on every single point.

I might be a bit more optimistic than you are about Ugarte, as I do think he has the abilities to play a specialized key role number 6 in our team.

I'm more concerned about the constellation and team formation around him, and how that is going to be set up tactically, as I don't think we yet really know Mainoo's optimal position (probably as an 8), and I think Bruno is utilized in a role that is far too offensive, which effectively leaves us with a 2-man midfield every time he plays.

No matter how good Mainoo and Ugarte turn out to be, those two alone are not enough to form a strong defensive midfield. We need at least 3 players who are in or around the middle of the park to really dominate other teams. Until that happens, I fear we will continue to be a bit too much basketball-y up and down the field, losing possession quite often.
And as long as our formation is 4-2-3-1/4-2-2-2/4-2-4 with Bruno in the number 10 role, our midfield is mainly just two players on their own.
Our full backs can of course tuck into the midfield when we have possession, but that's harder and way riskier when we don't have possession.
 
I said back when we were first linked with Zirkzee that he could be transformative for us and I stand by that now. Moreso than anyone else we've signed, he has the potential to affect the way we play for the better.

Of course sorting the defence out will be huge as well, but it's hard to bet on any one individual there. Whoever stays fit will have a big impact.
 
I think they’ll all be fairly successful. I’m tipping Yoro to become an elite player and then Madrid eventually buying him and us making a massive profit. I’m hoping Zirkzee can add some goals to our team although that probably won’t be his strengths even though he’s a ST. His main strength will be bringing others into play which will hopefully increase the goals in our wingers.
 
My lunch money is all I dare to bet, you'll never know with United

But if I have to bet it, my bet is on De Ligt, the rest is all too hit and miss

Yoro : Still young and could go either way, we've had many young Pedigree like Martial, Sancho, Depay, etc who has been lauded as hot property but somehow becoming deadwood. Malacia is supposed to be a safe bet but gone missing, Schneiderlin, etc. Who would have thought.

I'll just believe it when it happens
 
FrankWhite said:
Two shouts for De Ligt, Interesting. My thing with De ligt is, if he was truly elite, he'd still be at Bayern. This is not to say I expect him to be a bad player. I think he'll be a consistent 6.5 to 7 out 10 performer with very strong intangibles. Very good player but a capped ceiling.
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But Bayern also sold Kroos
 
Yoro.

Looking forward to him forming a top partnership with Martinez once he gets fit.
 
If Mazraoui stays fit I’d bet on him, but will he stay fit? I don’t know Yoro well enough to judge. De Ligt would be the safe option, but I might actually go for Zirkzee. The guy is unbelievably gifted and has the physical attributes to succeed in the EPL. There’s a bit of the Marco van Basten about him because his technical abilities and he always seems very composed when he scores, for him it’s more a question of getting in the right positions.I’m really pleased with all the signings and I’m very confident we are definitely much stronger than we have been thanks to these top class players.
 
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