Argentina Thread

VorZakone said:
Institutional investors buy up housing and that trend should be investigated, but they aren't the sole boogeyman here. US example:


https://www.vox.com/policy/369525/kamala-harris-housing-plan-corporate-landlords-homeownership
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Worse than institutional investors, is just the people with too much money.

I know several people here in Chile (neoliberal hell) that own more than 100 properties for rent.

Free market will never work on a society so unequal, because freedom, instead of liberty, will always end in debauchery.
 
VorZakone said:
Institutional investors buy up housing and that trend should be investigated, but they aren't the sole boogeyman here. US example:


https://www.vox.com/policy/369525/kamala-harris-housing-plan-corporate-landlords-homeownership
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Thanks of laying up the facts. Surely they are not majority because historically it had been private citizienship that owned multiproperty and kept expanding their porfolio, but it had been a trend for the last 15 years that institutional investors are increasing the already pressurized market and they keep going. Now might be 3%, but I am sure that they will keep gaining terrain on this percentage. Meanwhile, they will not price out the existing owners that will keep growing also it is over and over the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer with a division owners/renters which a more increasing impossibility to close the gap

Also, might be a small percentage yet, but institutional owners are the epitome of the organized capitalism for an asset that should be a right for the people. It is more acceptable that a family makes a bit of money renting 1 property but not a multim(b)illion organization owning entire buildings or plots with houses for greed when also, this money could be invested in other ventures
 
Krakenzero said:
Or maybe, and this is just a theory, the severe economic crisis that Argentina is suffering (which has the World Bank estimating a 4% contraction this year) is impacting in the purchasing power of the renters, which is swiftly pushing the prices down. Which is supported by the fact that 40% of argentinians between 25 and 35 years old live with their parents.
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Why it didn't happen last month but just when the restrictions were lifted? 170% more offer it translate on lowering prices, there is no other way around. I am the first in line on Shitting in Milei and his ultraliberal policies, but he was right in this instance seeing the results. will see how will work long term
 
I for one am shocked that austerity doesn't make the economy better and has terrible social consequences.
 
Can Milei get Trump to help Argentina ?

He is the first president Trump is going to meet.

I would assume that Trump would rather deal with Milei than with Luiz Inacio Lula in South America.
 
Luke1995 said:
Can Milei get Trump to help Argentina ?

He is the first president Trump is going to meet.

I would assume that Trump would rather deal with Milei than with Luiz Inacio Lula in South America.
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If he benefits and can bring in a ton of American companies to milk Argentinians for all that they're worth. Sure he ll help.
 
Luke1995 said:
Can Milei get Trump to help Argentina ?

He is the first president Trump is going to meet.

I would assume that Trump would rather deal with Milei than with Luiz Inacio Lula in South America.
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They’ve already met in Feb of this year, so this is probably Miley’s attempt to butter Trump up before asking for something. If he does, he should be prepared to offer Trump something in return.
 
Raoul said:
They’ve already met in Feb of this year, so this is probably Miley’s attempt to butter Trump up before asking for something. If he does, he should be prepared to offer Trump something in return.
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Trump will help him get more money from the IMF and Milei will gut any environmental regulations so the US mining companies can destroy Argentina and get that precious lithium, helping Elon.

Chile's "permisology" means projects can take up long time before executing. They will get it eventually though.
 
Thank you to those who replied to my question!

It seems like inflation is being controlled but at the cost of higher prices and people having less life quality.

How long will Milei be able to maintain a big public support ?
 
I feel like the article should keep pointing out that it's monthly inflation they're talking about. It's not like they're trying to hide it, but you just know someone is going to quote the article as saying "Argentina’s inflation slowed to 2.7% in October", and then some people are not going to realize that yearly inflation, aka inflation, is at 193%.

Good news for Argentina, though. Still terrible, but... better.
 
VorZakone said:
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A weird definition, since the articule itself says that the GDP of July-September has decreased by 2.1% when compared to the same period of last year.

I guess it is good news that Jul-Sep wasn't as disastrous as Apr-Jun tough.
 
Krakenzero said:
A weird definition, since the articule itself says that the GDP of July-September has decreased by 2.1% when compared to the same period of last year.

I guess it is good news that Jul-Sep wasn't as disastrous as Apr-Jun tough.
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How is it a weird definition? Recession is pretty much universally defined as two consecutive quarters of decline. It doesn't mean the economy is booming just that it's turned direction.
 
Smores said:
How is it a weird definition? Recession is pretty much universally defined as two consecutive quarters of decline. It doesn't mean the economy is booming just that it's turned direction.
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On a year-over-year basis. Which isn't the case here. Economy did better than last quarter but worse than same quarter last year. So if you account for seasonality you're actually doing worse.
 
Krakenzero said:
On a year-over-year basis. Which isn't the case here. Economy did better than last quarter but worse than same quarter last year. So if you account for seasonality you're actually doing worse.
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Lower inflation, lower borrowing costs and a return to growth. The currency needs sorting out but otherwise the economy is doing very well.

Don't forget Milei has only been in power a year.
 
11101 said:
Lower inflation, lower borrowing costs and a return to growth. The currency needs sorting out but otherwise the economy is doing very well.

Don't forget Milei has only been in power a year.
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166% yearly inflation actually.

The return to growth is, again, compared to Milei's previous quarter. Not on a year-over-year basis.

Funny you mention the currency, since it has depreciated significantly last weeks.

And in that year in power Argentina economy went from an expected growth of 3.7% to a projected decreased of 4.0%. Poverty also soared by the way.

I know everyone see what they want to see but people are ignoring the very basics here.
 
Every argentinian person I know loves this guy and his policies and says the country has taken a turn for the better

Every external commentator who follows the Argentinian economy and its indicators says shit is really bad and getting worse.

Don't know what to think at this point
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Every argentinian person I know loves this guy and his policies and says the country has taken a turn for the better

Every external commentator who follows the Argentinian economy and its indicators says shit is really bad and getting worse.

Don't know what to think at this point
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I mean, the macro indicators say that inflation has gone way down while poverty has doubled. Everyone is affected by the 1st thing, only 25% are affected by the second.
 
I am very weary with Milei since the beginning for everything that he represents but also I am very expectant so I will not criticize the results till we see them long term

Milei represents everything I despise in politics by the way. But thats me. To be fair, Argentinian traditional political class are the worse you can find, so I can understand why they are looking for whatever actor that provides them any alternative

This are some numbers that I gathered around

So far, inflation trend had improved with Milei which it was very much needed as Argentina was heading towards collapse. Improved trend doesn't mean that he solved it though...yet. The interanual inflation still very high

Government has no deficit anymore and has surplus but that had been due to slashing the public sector and pensions like retirement and the ones more in need

Unemployment went since him 6.2% to 7.6% (differs depending on the source but it has increased since Milei in power)
Poverty rate went since him from 41.7% to 52.9%
Salaries are 6.8% lower than when he came in power. Taking in account that the interanual inflation still over 100% since he came on power, it is not good. Seems though that the trend on salaries is going up. Still, internal consumption is obviously in decline because of this

This are some macros that appeals to the investors. He lowered the risk, so it attracted more investors than the last years which might help on the medium/long term

To be fair, Milei said that he will inflict all that and will be a painful beginning. He didn't lie

All in all, Argentinians were fed up of decades of shit economy policies and chose Milei which he is doing what he said he is doing.

In my opinion I see economy recovering in the macro. It might even work for the 30-40% percentile upper class, but it will create a huge division with the 30-40% percentile lower class. Which will set a terrible example for other economies which will spread inequality

At some point, regardless of his success/ failure, another Argentinian politician will come in power at some point and will keep fecking the country, they can't help it. I think is deeply systemic in their culture.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Every argentinian person I know loves this guy and his policies and says the country has taken a turn for the better

Every external commentator who follows the Argentinian economy and its indicators says shit is really bad and getting worse.

Don't know what to think at this point
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By virtue of how regularly Argentina seems to be in situations like this, I'm not sure any of them are a good source of judgement.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Every argentinian person I know loves this guy and his policies and says the country has taken a turn for the better

Every external commentator who follows the Argentinian economy and its indicators says shit is really bad and getting worse.

Don't know what to think at this point
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berbatrick said:
I mean, the macro indicators say that inflation has gone way down while poverty has doubled. Everyone is affected by the 1st thing, only 25% are affected by the second.
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Yeah, so if those Argentinian people that @AfonsoAlves knows are middle class, safely employment, and don't care too much for the lower class - then I can imagine they're enjoying things.
 
Krakenzero said:
166% yearly inflation actually.

The return to growth is, again, compared to Milei's previous quarter. Not on a year-over-year basis.

Funny you mention the currency, since it has depreciated significantly last weeks.

And in that year in power Argentina economy went from an expected growth of 3.7% to a projected decreased of 4.0%. Poverty also soared by the way.

I know everyone see what they want to see but people are ignoring the very basics here.
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Inflation is running under 3% month on month. When he took over it hit 25%.

Annual figures are irrelevant because at this point his policies haven't had a full year to take effect. He delivered a short, sharp shock and now everything is settling and going in the right direction. The only area of concern is poverty but a return to growth will fix that.

The decreased borrowing costs tell you all you need to know. The policies are, so far, working. Whether you like them is a different argument.
 
11101 said:
Inflation is running under 3% month on month. When he took over it hit 25%.

Annual figures are irrelevant because at this point his policies haven't had a full year to take effect. He delivered a short, sharp shock and now everything is settling and going in the right direction. The only area of concern is poverty but a return to growth will fix that.

The decreased borrowing costs tell you all you need to know. The policies are, so far, working. Whether you like them is a different argument.
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argentina-inflation-slowed-more-than-expected-month-on-mon.jpg

He didn't do anything sort of spectacular though. He has the inflation where historically Argentina had been. . Inflation started to spike during COVID and it hit 25% when he was already in power, no doubt because he inherited the shitshow from its predecessors.

But this inflation had been put back to normal with a huge cost. Basically Milei has the inflation 2 years back, with lower consumption power and more poverty and inequality and less public safety net. How he can make it better being worse? maybe his minister of economy have a good plan, but knowing that he was already minister of economy not that long ago and he didn't find any solutions then, I don't know how this time he will having worse conditions

Will see in a few years. Is too early. Some things are definitely positive if we see the trend that Argentina was going towards. Others indicators are looking dire and honestly, I have 0 confidence in argentinian politicians
 
4bars said:
argentina-inflation-slowed-more-than-expected-month-on-mon.jpg

He didn't do anything sort of spectacular though. He has the inflation where historically Argentina had been. . Inflation started to spike during COVID and it hit 25% when he was already in power, no doubt because he inherited the shitshow from its predecessors.

But this inflation had been put back to normal with a huge cost. Basically Milei has the inflation 2 years back, with lower consumption power and more poverty and inequality and less public safety net. How he can make it better being worse? maybe his minister of economy have a good plan, but knowing that he was already minister of economy not that long ago and he didn't find any solutions then, I don't know how this time he will having worse conditions

Will see in a few years. Is too early. Some things are definitely positive if we see the trend that Argentina was going towards. Others indicators are looking dire and honestly, I have 0 confidence in argentinian politicians
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Lets be clear Argentina is never far away from an economic crisis. It's only 5 years since they last went begging to the IMF.

What I think is giving markets more hope this time is that all economic indicators are pointing in the right direction at the same time, and he has got a handle on the historically giant millstone of the Argentine public sector. They employed something like 50% of all workers at one point. He's cut it by a third in a year.
 
11101 said:
Lets be clear Argentina is never far away from an economic crisis. It's only 5 years since they last went begging to the IMF.

What I think is giving markets more hope this time is that all economic indicators are pointing in the right direction at the same time, and he has got a handle on the historically giant millstone of the Argentine public sector. They employed something like 50% of all workers at one point. He's cut it by a third in a year.
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All the indicators points on benefits for coorporations while slashing on public safety nets and causing a huge economic divide. I can only see a miniority enjoying the results of what he is doing. Will need to see in 3-4 years

Too soon. So far he didnt lie, which is something. So argentinians got what they voted for. For good or for bad
 
The IMF should give them the loan in exchange for relinquishing the 2022 WC win.
 
There were massive protests in Argentina last weeks, initially from the elderly (the most harmed by Milei's initiatives) but it was then joined by several other groups including football fans in order to protect them from the brutal repression they were receiving.

Meanwhile official reports show GDP down, poverty up, historically low meat and milk consumption and the president and his inner circles being investigated by international agencies for the Libra scheme.

Taking a loan from the IMF is something that Milei actively criticized during his campaigns, literally saying "the IMF is a perverse institution because when a country is about to explode it borrows money to a government without credibility and leaves the problem for the next one to solve". His Minister of Economy (Luis Caputo) was also Macri's former Minister of Finance, who was the last guy that borrowed from the IMF. Just seven years ago.

There's still time to get out of the bandwagon.
 
I want him to fail so badly because i think his policies are so perverse. But that will mean that the argentinians will suffer once more. I dont know what is the solution is for argentina, to be honest. They have one of the highest average of educated people in southamerica, and a huge country with resources. Must be that they have the highest average of turdsin their population
 
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