I think it's changing from the days when you called up the ticket office. They seem to have pushed more online and taken the human element out of it. There's always a portion that don't renew a ST, a few more may be affected by cost of living plus the 5% price increase. But that's got to set against the feel good factor being back, and the introduction of the cup ST. This will be the first renewal since the intro of the cup ST so we need to see how it plays out (Inc how many of them want full ST) .
Noone knows the numbers so it's all guesswork, but my guess is that only cup ST holders will get a look in for full ST, sorry.