Redjazz: As far as I am concerned this is a very simple discussion which compares how much it will cost to service the new bond debt compared to how much it would have cost under the previous senior debt structure. Andersred has kindly provided the exact numbers we need and anyone can look at the two 'Debt Service' columns to see the direct comparison on a year by year basis.
To me the conclusions are pretty clear and you do not need an accounting qualification to see that the club would need to find a lot more cash in the next few years if the old bank debt was still in place. In the 2 year period from 2013 alone, the club would need to come up with almost £300m in repayments which would obviously put a serious strain on the club or bring the uncertainty of refinance at that time.
I also believe my comparison of moving from a standard interest and captial repayment mortgage to an interest only mortgage is perfectly valid and again explains in simple terms what is going on here.
Of course, I understand that some people might think we are better off going for the repayment mortgage because interest only leaves the initial capital to be paid off at some future date - but that of course has been the Glazer Plan the whole time, they do not aim to repay the senior debt at all and will just keep refinancing it. This is the thing that many people just cannot get their head around but it is a standard leverage finance play and I guess the average fan does not understand that kind of thing.
Unfortunately, it seems you are trying to overcomplicate a very simple issue by throwing various other factors into the mix. Most notably the PIK, quite obviously the PIK is there and would need to be repaid under either scenario so I dont really see things in the way you do.
Hmmmm!!! Just how and why is the 'PIK' the main area of worry for the club? By club are you referring to the fans, the players, or the Glazers? You are right in a way, of course; while the Glazers extract enormous amounts of cash from the club to pay back their own personal debt, fans should be concerned but it is percisely because the Glazers are in the process of extracting huge amounts of cash. The PIKs have nothing to do with the club or the fans. Aren't the PIKs supposed to be non-recourse to the club? Why should you be concerned if the Glazers fail to repay their own debt? Removing vast amounts of money from the club, now and in the future, increases risk at the club level but using those proceeds to pay down the PIKs reduces risk at the RFJV (Glazer) level. It's a complete contradiction to say that both the club (assuming the club foots the bill) and the Glazers benefit from elimination of the PIKs. The only PIK-related 'positive news' I can imagine is the Glazers using other means to deal with the PIK. Wouldn't you be more inclined to paint such a development in a 'good' light?
Now I realise you are a newbie around here so are probably not upto speed on our recent discussions about the bond, PIK etc. Firstly, just to clarify when I say 'the club' in this context I am primarily talking about the club as a business. In this particular thread I tend to try and put forward nonemotional business analysis of our finances - I prefer to keep that completely seperate to more emotional matters which we as fans of the club might be interested in (you will see me comment on these in other threads).
Secondly, the general consensus around here has been to accept that the PIK is part of the club debt - after all the media, MUST etc have been including it whenever our total debt levels are ever discussed and this is exactly why we have constantly seen stories about our total debt growing year on year since the Glazers arrived.
That being the case, the growing nature of the PIK loan has always been the major issue for both fans and the business alike. Technically, the PIK is non-recourse and ultimately if the Glazers fail to pay it then they, and not the club, lose out as the debt would convert to equity and dilute their own shareholding. However, this does bring a threat to us as fans as we have no idea who the new shareholders would be or what their agenda is.
Of course, if the Glazers used money from their own pockets to pay off the PIK I would be delighted, but it is pretty clear that the Glazers have never planned to inject their own personal funds into the club.
As that is never going to happen, I do see any move to pay off the PIK, and as a result reduce the overall debt levels of the club, as a positive move for everyone involved with the club. Of course, once the PIK is dealt with we may in the future see some kind of attempt to start repaying the senior debt but that remains to be seen.