Aintree Grand National 2010

Mighty Boosh

Full Member
Joined
Apr 2, 2010
Messages
1,660
Location
Squeaky Bum
Entries

Race Trends:

- Every winner since 1946 has been aged between 8 and 12.
- Should carry a weight of no more than 11st 1lbs
- Every winner has been officially rated between 136 and 148.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won a chase over at least 3 miles.
- Every winner has had a run in the last 50 days
- 7 of the last 10 winners had a returned SP of 20/1 or shorter.
- 2 of the last 10 favourites have won.

The horses in this years race that best suit the above trends are Arbor Supreme, Backstage, Ballyholland, Character Building, Snowy Morning and Big Fella Thanks

Latest odds: 8-1 Big Fella Thanks, 12-1 Mon Mome, 14-1 The Package, Black Apalachi, 18-1 Tricky Trickster, Snowy Morning, Arbor Supreme, Niche Market, 20-1 Character Building, Vic Venturi, 22-1 State Of Play, 25-1 Whinstone Boy, Don't Push It, Backstage, 28-1 Comply Or Die, Can't Buy Time, 33-1 Ballyholland, Chief Dan George, 40-1 bar.
 
Trends have their place in a race like this but personally I don't really bother as racing changes every year and so can trends. Big Fella Thanks had no chance last year on trends and whilst he didn't win he ran a lot better than I expected. He has a leading chance but is a bit short now. I go for the scattergun approach in the National and have backed five:

Big Fella Thanks (10s)
Tricky Trickster (25)
State of Play (25)
The Package (16)
Maljimar (46)
 
State of Play is an interesting pick and I think he'll run a big race this year, The Package is probably a bit too inexperienced for a race like this and Big Fella Thanks is a worthy favourite at the moment, having Ruby on board is always a big plus too
 
So has anyone else backed anything for the big race or had any good tips ? I have Arbour Supreme, State of Play and Ballyholland all done e/w

Oh and I've got Comply or Die in the Caf sweepstake
 
Went today. Quite a few boos when they announced Fergie picking up his prize. There was a family to my left on the stand who brought a big feck off Liverpool FC blanket to sit on between races. Not a good day.


The drying ground will really suit Maljimar in the big race. He's 40/1 and that is a cracking each way price.
 
Off to Ladies' Day in about an hour. I'll be rolling in it. Or not.
 
Don't like to go for the typical favourites in a race like this, so a few outsiders are on the cards for me.

Main Bet:

Snowy Morning (16-1) - Managed to stay the course last time round with a lot of weight and came 3rd 2 years back. Lost 9lb so could have a better run this year!

or Niche Market (16-1) - Looks like a good young horse and won the Irish Grand National last year!

Outsiders:

My Will (40-1)
Eric's Charm (50-1)
Flintoff (50-1)
 
Maljimar 33-1 each way bet

Aintree Grand National... Been told he has been set out for this.

Also Character Building 14-1 again ew... Bought last week by same people who owned Party Politics. Again that horse was bought week before national and same yea as an election

https://www.redcafe.net/7865987-post55.html

Elvis - I hope you got on my 40-1 winner last week.... Not every week I put up a bet, so you have to watch out.....
 
bazalini said:
Maljimar 33-1 each way bet

Aintree Grand National... Been told he has been set out for this.

Also Character Building 14-1 again ew... Bought last week by same people who owned Party Politics. Again that horse was bought week before national and same yea as an election

https://www.redcafe.net/7865987-post55.html

Elvis - I hope you got on my 40-1 winner last week.... Not every week I put up a bet, so you have to watch out.....
Click to expand...

Nope, I had sod all money! If it was a week later I would have stuck a tenner on. Gutted. Keep 'em coming.

I did lose £20 on the Serkis one though, you should refund me.
 
esmufc10 said:
Nope, I had sod all money! If it was a week later I would have stuck a tenner on. Gutted. Keep 'em coming.

I did lose £20 on the Serkis one though, you should refund me.
Click to expand...

How could you lose on that when he was trading at 1.50 in teh weeks leading up and I said lay it
 
I don't do each way betting, I just stick a tenner on the nose every time I place one.

I got Maljimar at 33-1 and The Package at 14-1 :)
 
bazalini said:
Maljimar 33-1 each way bet

Aintree Grand National... Been told he has been set out for this.

Also Character Building 14-1 again ew... Bought last week by same people who owned Party Politics. Again that horse was bought week before national and same yea as an election

https://www.redcafe.net/7865987-post55.html

Elvis - I hope you got on my 40-1 winner last week.... Not every week I put up a bet, so you have to watch out.....
Click to expand...

As has the majority of horses in the race to be fair.
I think Nina is a bad choice of jock for Character Building, he's a quirky beast who needs a bit of coaxing through his races and Nina's style of riding is the absolute opposite, should have kept Jamie Codd on the horse imo but the horse definitely has the talent to go close.
 
lem8sh said:
As has the majority of horses in the race to be fair.
I think Nina is a bad choice of jock for Character Building, he's a quirky beast who needs a bit of coaxing through his races and Nina's style of riding is the absolute opposite, should have kept Jamie Codd on the horse imo but the horse definitely has the talent to go close.
Click to expand...



No - Not really... Has raced less then all the others who have been fit, has been earmarked for this race before C'ham (even after winning there)

They have kept the horse fresh and after proving he could gallop beyond 3 miles at Cheltenham they have put him away fresh for this which is basically the horses D Day. He isnt the toughest of horses but on his day he is half decent and genuine. He was noticeably absent from Cheltenham this year despite all his co runners from that Autumn race turning up again at the festival.The drying ground is just what he, Niche Market and Hello Bud need.
It would not surprise me if King Johns Castle and Snowy Morning made a race of it with experience ,age and better marks this year.
All in all Nick Williams horse ,related to the grand staying influence of Cantab is carrying my modest eway interest.


In relation to Characte Building - You always get a story at Aintree. This may be the one. I like the match between election year and the buying patterns
 
bazalini said:
In relation to Characte Building - You always get a story at Aintree. This may be the one. I like the match between election year and the buying patterns
Click to expand...

It would be quite a story alright and I'd love to see Nina do it, father, son and daughter all riding National winners
 
3756194565_67b8e911ba.jpg


Ahem. Got cash on Big Fella Thanks, State of Play, Niche Market and Backstage.
 
i went £2 on state of play, big fella thanks and don't push it (all each way) and £4 on the package (each way). not sure what i get out of that but 3 out of the top 4 is pretty decent i reckon.
 
£2 Each way win @20/1 Don't push it (£4 stake) :cool:

£2 Each way @8/1 with Big fella thanks
£2 Each way @14/1 with State of play

Not too shabby :)
 
RedNome said:
£2 Each way win @20/1 Don't push it (£4 stake) :cool:

£2 Each way @8/1 with Big fella thanks
£2 Each way @14/1 with State of play

Not too shabby :)
Click to expand...

pretty much what i did but you put twice the amount on.

me, not having a clue aboot horse racing, has no idea what 'each way' means in terms of how the price is affected. can you give me some hints - i did it as am guessing it's a safeguard if the one i back doesnt come first?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.