Im not defending DDG here but are people looking at just how awful our backs and midfield are at giving him options to play out? So many of his hoof balls forward in the FA cup came because he had no other option but to just send it. I think he needs replacing but just replacing him will only solve part of the problem.
A Look at Goalkeeper Options and Replacing De Gea
- Thread starter sifi36
- Start date
Im no expert on keepers so asking here if the Leeds keeper has potential, he looks like he could develop into a decent keeper from what I have seen
I want a big imposing presence in net that can sweep and claim crosses but is also extremely confident with the ball at his feet. Meslier has got another dweeby body. As does Raya. Get fecking Costa.
That Leeds keeper is shite. He isn't the answer
He’s worse than De Gea in this analysis if I remember correctly. Not a good stopper, loads of on-ball errors and one of the least accurate long kickers on the list. He makes De Gea look like Pirlo.
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A goalkeeper has to by default be good at saving shots. But he also needs to be good at providing the free man option in the build up phase if you have a head coach who wants to dominate all phases of play. And the Brighton keeper (Steele) in the clip below demonstrates how to resist and evade pressure when the outfield players are marked by their opponent's Man City. De Gea can't do this and it's one of the reasons it's easy for good pressing sides to hinder our supply lines.
The way Steele makes space for himself by showing composure on the ball and then executing the passes to play through the press is one of the reasons why Brighton punch above their weight and why Man City and Arsenal were contending for the title and scored the most goals. If you can consistently play the ball out of defense and into the middle and attacking thirds, then you'll score a lot of goals.
The way Steele makes space for himself by showing composure on the ball and then executing the passes to play through the press is one of the reasons why Brighton punch above their weight and why Man City and Arsenal were contending for the title and scored the most goals. If you can consistently play the ball out of defense and into the middle and attacking thirds, then you'll score a lot of goals.
We won't get Kane/Osi so I think the budget for a striker won't need to be that high, unless we go for more than one. Midfield budget can be managed by not being stupid and wasting 50-60m on Mount. Rabiot and other signings cheaper options are good enough to bolster the team, plus we can recoup a decent fee for McT/Fred.
There is absolutely budget for a GK if we play our cards right. Not to mention we can get a decent fee for Hendo.
What we need to be is sharp and ruthless.
Kane wants to move imo and it will drag on. Whether we will get him is another matter but for sure we will chase him over the summer.
Thank you for your appreciation.
Whilst I want de Gea gone urgently, I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s the worst in the league. John Harrison (who has a goalkeeping consultancy and actually gets paid by clubs and associations to do a much more advanced version of this analysis) reckons he’s worth 1.8 goals better than the average premier league goalkeeper this season. He hasn’t released his analysis for everyone else this season yet, but for reference, Alisson was a net positive 11 goals last season on his model compared to De Gea’s 3, both relative to the average premier league goalkeeper. An eight goal swing over the course of the season would have us around Arsenal’s points total.
De Gea is regressing and is at this point statistically average and therefore there is little risk in making a change. Not doing so would be like persisting with Carrol or Howard instead of binning them off like a proper club would.
Yeah and when I am talking to someone like you, who clearly knows your stuff, I appreciate its stupid to talk in absolutes, like saying "worst in the league" but I do personally feel he is certainly ONE OF the worst in the league.
As good as stats are for painting the outline of a picture, the eye-test and experience also contribute to judging a player. I feel the nerves that De Gea conveys to the rest of the team and his generally passive play are hard to capture in stats but definitely cost us far more than the 1.8 goals he supposedly prevents compared to average.
Yes, I believe there are ICT experts at Manchester United who have Excel. The problem is, when they used it to locate the best young defender available a few years ago, computer said: Aaron Wan-Bissaka.... Sometimes the old ways are best, human scouts watching games and don't look at Youtube reels!
This is some great work OP. Absolutely imperative we move De Gea on this summer. I think some will be shocked at the subtle ways he's been holding us back, not just the clear errors. I honestly don't see a problem in spending 50 million on Costa. With his age profile we could potentially be sorted for years. Assuming Mount is already coming in, then maybe we can wait on any other midfield reinforcements if we need to and bring in Costa plus a big name striker. I know it wouldn't be ideal to put midfield on the backburner but a big upgrade in goal and up front could easily be an 9-12 point swing over the coure of a season.
Costa, splash the cash. Having a great keeper can make a world of difference, Alison and ederson are recent examples that definitely added another level to these teams
It’s such a good insight but so depressing at the same time.
He’s the best paid gk in the league and this is what we get in return. Absolute fraud.
He’s the best paid gk in the league and this is what we get in return. Absolute fraud.
Costa is easily the best currently available. His distribution is excellent, he's not a tiny guy getting lost between the sticks either. Only issue is that he will be difficult to get due to money and the fact that he'll be in demand.
Fraud is harsh, not his fault he gets paid what he does.. let's blame the incompetent boardroom (Woodward's time)
I want him gone as much as anyone but let's not chuck around insults like they're going out of fashion.
Have to wonder how often many people have actually seen Cost play, I cant comment on him as onl yseen him in the world cup.
Bu I see lots of English fans clamouring for him and his distribution being amazing and easily the best option out there. Yet a lot of the comments I see from Portugese fans, seems to be that he is very raw and quite possibly over rated and lacking in concentration and not ready for a big move.
Bu I see lots of English fans clamouring for him and his distribution being amazing and easily the best option out there. Yet a lot of the comments I see from Portugese fans, seems to be that he is very raw and quite possibly over rated and lacking in concentration and not ready for a big move.
I’m possibly one of those English fans you mention. For me, it’s because the situation with De Gea’s ability with the ball and commanding his box is so damning. Costa’s distribution is top class and I think that he would transform the way we play.
All GKs have mistakes in them, Alisson included. But I think the odd mistake would be far outweighed by the instant, positive impact he would have on our general play. Heck De Gea’s made quite a lot of mistakes this year don’t forget… Sevilla, West Ham, Brentford, etc.
Costa is at a nice age that he could be our GK for the next 8-10 years, which you want as you want consistency in goal. Every goal keeper signing is a risk, but I think he’s one of the very few realistic options that are good enough to take a risk on. Raya and Onana being other options I’m open to, but my gut says Costa is the one.
Costa please, let DDG leave
Really good analysis. Surprised Raya's passing isn't better tbh. Seems like we've already decided that it's going to be Costa, which judging by your analysis is probably the best choice. Whether that gets done this season or not is the only question.
He's awful. Literally one of the worst performing keepers in the league. Meslier was hyped up by some and I still have no idea why. Not good at anything, especially shot stopping
Tbh the few times I saw him he made a couple mistakes but the stats don't lie. I must have just seen him on a couple off days. Much harder to judge keepers than outfield players on small sample sizes due to them being fully dependent on the opposition they're facing. Those numbers are exceptional especially for a keeper so young.
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One of the best threads I’ve ever seen on here. We desperately need to get a new keeper.
Maybe De Gea can be backup for one year I’m okay with that as buying two keepers in a year is perhaps overkill.
He’s earned that much and can sort his next move out in the coming year with his family.
Maybe De Gea can be backup for one year I’m okay with that as buying two keepers in a year is perhaps overkill.
He’s earned that much and can sort his next move out in the coming year with his family.
Not sure we will be replacing DDG. What will make more sense is to find a good GK to replace Dean Henderson and challenge DDG for the role. There will likely be a bit of rotation at the beginning eventually settling on one keeper based on performances.
Not familiar with him. Seems he is very young. That's an ambitious choice to challenge DDG. But as an understudy for the next few years with DDG eventually retiring and handing over to him, may be an option I guess.
Extending De Gea and signing competition for him makes no sense if we are attempting to transform our playing style by introducing a goalkeeper who is comfortable being the extra man in deep build-up and a competent passer. We would regress every time De Gea is playing. Look at City’s backup that played in the FA Cup final, he’s a (less competent) version of Ederson.
Not only that, if he did get supplanted as the starter, we’d be stuck with De Gea as no one else would pay him a fraction of what we’re mooted to be offering him.
Having backups that don’t match the style and capabilities of your starters is a recipe for inconsistency and occasional disaster - see us without Casemiro or Bruno.
On goalkeeping errors, they tend to be very memorable as they often result in a goal being conceded, unlike errors in other positions and areas of the pitch. If you’ve only seen a goalkeeper in action a couple of times and they have blinder (think Friedel every time he played against us)/stinker you’re likely to be heavily influenced by this, even though it may not be reflective of their general performances, this is where statistical analysis can be helpful.
On the other hand, statistics that paint an incomplete picture have their own pitfalls. This analysis shows cross claims as the only metric to assess a keeper’s command of area. In reality, failed cross claims (like Costa’s in the World Cup) are often disastrous and result in at least a high quality chance if not a goal. Team style also plays into this. Defending set pieces with a higher line gives the goalkeeper more chances to claim a cross compared to a team that defends free-kicks deeper. That said, this can be influenced by the goalkeeper and their willingness to come off their line.
Whilst this analysis has its limitations given the availability of free data, it does mostly line up with my perception of the goalkeepers that I’ve watched a fair amount of.
Not only that, if he did get supplanted as the starter, we’d be stuck with De Gea as no one else would pay him a fraction of what we’re mooted to be offering him.
Having backups that don’t match the style and capabilities of your starters is a recipe for inconsistency and occasional disaster - see us without Casemiro or Bruno.
On goalkeeping errors, they tend to be very memorable as they often result in a goal being conceded, unlike errors in other positions and areas of the pitch. If you’ve only seen a goalkeeper in action a couple of times and they have blinder (think Friedel every time he played against us)/stinker you’re likely to be heavily influenced by this, even though it may not be reflective of their general performances, this is where statistical analysis can be helpful.
On the other hand, statistics that paint an incomplete picture have their own pitfalls. This analysis shows cross claims as the only metric to assess a keeper’s command of area. In reality, failed cross claims (like Costa’s in the World Cup) are often disastrous and result in at least a high quality chance if not a goal. Team style also plays into this. Defending set pieces with a higher line gives the goalkeeper more chances to claim a cross compared to a team that defends free-kicks deeper. That said, this can be influenced by the goalkeeper and their willingness to come off their line.
Whilst this analysis has its limitations given the availability of free data, it does mostly line up with my perception of the goalkeepers that I’ve watched a fair amount of.
I'm always surprised that team scouts don't search out 7ft feckers from the NBA or something. What's with these short fellas they keep focusing on.
Just stick a 7ft lump with hands like shovels and they'd be golden.
Just stick a 7ft lump with hands like shovels and they'd be golden.
I disagree. It's not a matter of what we want or don't want. It's a matter of what we can or cannot do. We have neither the transfer funds nor the FFP room to replace 2 GKs at the same time while also getting a first choice striker, a first choice midfielder and a first choice centerback. The "known" budget is only 100 million. Player sales are unknown at this point and moot until it actually happens. DDG is not exactly shite. He'll do a job. More important and easier to find a good GK that suits our style of play and let him challenge DDG.
That’s a great clip and shows exactly what De Gea cannot do and what we greatly miss.
Releasing De Gea frees up 19.5m annually in FFP room. Signing someone like Casteels or Samba (might be excessive for a backup) for 10m and putting him on 80k a week (an enormous pay rise for either, around 15x what they’re currently on) would use around 6.2m of that per year, leaving us with 13m annually, that would allow us to sign a keeper for 26m on 150k a week. Topping that up with Henderson’s soon to be agreed sale would cover the difference in fee for someone like Costa, who’d be around 50m if Porto’s financial situation is as it seems.
Keeping De Gea on 200k a week, as has been rumoured, would cost more from an FFP standpoint (10.4m annually), than the hypothetical signing of a backup ( 4.2m in wages plus 2m in amortisation so 6.2m annually).
We’d go from 27.3m in wages for De Gea and Henderson, to 12m in wages for Casteel and Costa plus 12m annually in amortisation. That would be an annual FFP saving of 3.3m. Which is equivalent to being able pay a player 64k a week (a third of what we’re rumoured to be offering Kim Min-Jae) or spend 16.5m on transfers every year. The cash position would be worse, though this is less of an issue once the takeover has been completed and will be mitigated somewhat by the 20-30m we’ll get for Henderson.
We’d be in a better position on the balance sheet and upgrade massively.
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Assuming everything you say is true and everything goes exactly as you wished for, that's at least 60 million on the GKs alone. Not much left of the 100 million for a first choice striker, first choice midfielder and first choice centerback. And this is your best case scenario. And on top of that, we still don't even know if either of the GKs would be good enough for us in the first place.
It would be a net 30-40m factoring in Henderson’s sale. That said, the cash position won’t matter once the takeover is completed. Either bidder has enough money to give the club an interest free credit line that would make the cash position an effective irrelevance.
Henderson and De Gea’s wages are a matter of public record and fees and wages for the suggested incoming goalkeepers are entirely realistic.
A potential transfer not working out can be used as an argument to not sign anyone in any position as no transfer is guaranteed to work out. What we do know is that we have two goalkeepers that aren’t good enough, one of which will probably never play for us again. The opportunity cost of keeping one or both must also be considered.
Making two signings increases the chance of one of them working out and would be better from an FFP standpoint. Sounds like a win-win to me.
Ah, I don't think that's how it works. We still cannot spend willy nilly as the transfer budget plays a part on FFP calculations. And cash injections have a cap or some rules in how they are calculated in FFP. And on top of that, for all we know, we might still be going through negotiations on Aug 31. So, effectively, even assuming the rest of your numbers is true is, again, still moot.
And there is a huge difference between one GK transfer not working and having a proven world class shot stopper in back up
vs
having 2 GK transfers (One of which is a 10 mil bargain basement choice...) not working and having no one to replace them with.
There is a phased introduction happening of losses being capped to a certain amount, but it’s unlikely to have much impact as long as our spending spree doesn’t last more than a couple of seasons, when the rules become more stringent.
De Gea is not world class, he’s well below average (and those bargain basement choices) at the majority of what a goalkeeper is tasked with doing, see the OP.
Even if we ignore his monstrous wages, would he be considered as an option if City, Liverpool or Arsenal needed a backup keeper? He’s so far from their starters in strengths and weaknesses that none of them would give a second look and on that basis neither should we.
I like him. He made a very poor second part of the season (maybe he tought he was going to national team) but I think he's very good.
He's brave, quick, solid in the air and has ability on the ball.
I won't replace De Gea with him, but if De Gea leaves for Saudi (joke) and we are short of keepers with no money to spend, I think I would go for him even before Raya. (knowing that Maignan would cost 80+ and Costa 70M+)
I'm in agreement. I think we should go for the keeper who has the best distribution whilst being very competent at the basics. That points to Costa. Let's not forget his penalty saving ability also.
The clock is ticking on DDG contract...at this rate it wont be a matter of extending him or not...it will be more about re-signing him on a free transfer when nobody else picks him up haha.
We are so fecked
I wouldn't rule out Matej Kovar making a case for himself during Pre-Season.
Pretty conclusive thread highlighting how much he needs replacing. We have the perfect opportunity to simply let him walk out the door because he is out of contract. A serious club would simply say thanks and goodbye. Let's start to be a serious club please....