2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Do they know that EC is 50 popular votes aggregated together?
Not entirely. It's going to be a comfortable Kamala win or a tight win for Donald or Kamala (most likely).
A big Donald win is highly unlikely. At best he wins PA, GA, NC, AZ. I just don't see him surpassing 300.
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What sort of arguments did he use to try to convince you? Just immigration stuff, or are there some other flavours of Kool-Aid being served in Florida?
Thanks mate, I wrote a draft in crayon and got a top pollster to check if it was postworthy.
I will respond to this part, as for the rest I've said exactly the same in previous posts. But what you wrote above is hugely disrespectful IMHO. If Kamala did everything you said, yes of course you would get a few uneducated or braindead mugs who think they are smarter than everyone else or those who refuse to ever admit they are wrong and cut their noses off to spite their own faces that would still be staunchly against her. Then the racists and sexist misogynists and then the religious lot who vote purely on abortion and equal rights issues.... But the vast majority, if Kamala improved their lives to that extent they would switch. 100%
The only question I have, is what is the percentage?
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If Trump wins this will be the map yes.
This is what I currently have. I've bought into the NC hype again. I was tempted to go blue for AZ but I can't look past the border issue there which I think could push Trump over the line in a close race.
Not going with Ann Selzer and predicting Harris wins Iowa?
Seems that everyone is super high on Harris in the last week and even more so since the Iowa poll. But no one actually thinks that Harris will actually win Iowa. This is despite Selzer's record...
I feel my joke is being missed here.
Oh shit, I thought it was a colouring chart. I printed it out and everything..
How on earth was that post disrespectful?
people i follow on twitter who got the midterms right think kamala is the favourite. so i think she will win. the polling - first with the partisan polls, then with the herding proved by nate silver - is less helpful than any previous election. otherwise i used to trust the simple average of polls, even after 2016.
Hush - don't bring facts into this. They re not interested.
feck, that really made me laugh out loud. And in crayon too! Lacking a poll though....standard betting sites still showing Trump as reasonable favourite (around 8/11 with Kamalalala 6/4). polymarket is 58/41.
Same sites probably had United beating Barca in 2011.
So the polls have vastly underestimated Trump twice and now these polls are closer than before.
Congrats Trump?
Congrats Trump?
Yeah, Brexit was 2/1 with 10 minutes of voting left. @bazalini will explain to you why you should ignore betting odds & forecasts.
If this thread hasn't taught you anything, it must have taught you polls are the only method to be trusted.
Hugely disrespectful? To who?
Look at it from the other way round. Trump is likely to get 47% or more of the vote tomorrow. That is despite him being a convicted criminal, his racism, causing an insurrection and riot, being a convicted sexual abused, admitting grabbing women by the pussy, his mishandling of covid, his lies, him performing felicio on a mic stand etc, etc, etc.
So, if the right wing media can sanewash Trump, then why can't they continue to discredit Harris, even if her performance in office is outstanding?
You say "the vast majority" would vote for her. How do you define "vast majority"? 70/30 ? 80/20 ?
Say you are right, what % of the vote would Kamala get in 2028 for a second term, if she was to score a 10/10 in every metric?
Quick someone do the math on the amount of red vs blue crayon.
No chance. That is a clean sweep for Trump.
You're all blind.
So the expectation from the last month or so has loosely gone from Harris certainty, to Trump strong chance, to looks like Harris should be ok after all. From the UK, this feels very similar to how our Brexit vote unfurled.
I think having the incentive of potentially being behind the polls may be the kick Trump voters need to get out. Although I may just be preparing myself for the worst.
I reckon it's going to be insanely close and Nevada could end up being the decider despite the attention the traditional rust-belt states get.
I think having the incentive of potentially being behind the polls may be the kick Trump voters need to get out. Although I may just be preparing myself for the worst.
I reckon it's going to be insanely close and Nevada could end up being the decider despite the attention the traditional rust-belt states get.
The dumb fecks saw how the garbage joke played out with Latinos, and now they want to bring black turnout for Dems to 08 level as well.
Reminder to anyone downplaying the impact of the right-wing media in the US: more than half the country believe that the US is in a recession. Despite it being in great shape, very much not technically in a recission and the envy of the western world.
i understand how polls and odds work, thank you.
Zero unemployment isn't ideal. Somewhere around 3% is more ideal theoretically than zero. And you'd have to define what you mean by allow economy to boom. Do you mean decreasing income/wealth inequality and raising the actual spending power of the average person? or just super charging the Dow Jones for the top 2-5%?
What's your optimism based on? Feels like there's a lot of momentum behind Trump but maybe it's because I get a lot of information from Elon Musk's X.
To be honest I just left it red as I can't wrap my head around the 12 point swing she has to the Dems. I'm certainly not betting against her given her track record. I think the trends Selzer is seeing in Iowa translate to the rust belt.Not going with Ann Selzer and predicting Harris wins Iowa?
Seems that everyone is super high on Harris in the last week and even more so since the Iowa poll. But no one actually thinks that Harris will actually win Iowa. This is despite Selzer's record...
I am convinced Kamala takes PA comfortably. Thousands on Pennsylvania Democrats who voted early last time are holding out till ED to avoid the EV count anxiety and fraud accusations from last time around. Harris will win with a bigger margin than Biden did.
It's a European toddler.
Strangely confident about this one, despite the betting market...
They showed Hillary as favourite in 2016.
If you have blue FL then might as well add in TX, go big or go home....
Hugely disrespectful to lots of people who vote purely out of personal situation. That's who.
We can all disagree about policy and important issues like abortion or healthcare etc... We can all (and many of us do, me included) mock them for being uneducated or racist and hateful, but let's not do a Hillary and put them all in the same basket or think they are all lost or the enemy. Many are just fecking struggling day to day. Yes, a lot is of their own making, but for many, it isn't. It's bad luck or circumstance. A society is judged on how it helps the weakest, poorest and most needy. (Often misquoted, but I like that one the best)
A significant percentage of Trump voters are voting out of desperation, ignorance, brainwashing or because they are told to by their partners or families or church etc. But similarly, if their lives were improved significantly to the extent you said then they would switch their vote, or I would at least hope they would.
Feels like there’s a vibe shift towards Harris and also a growing belief in this thread. What are you basing it on? Because I have the same feeling but I’d struggle to justify it rationally giving that polling (except for the Selzer one) at best shows the Trump momentum has stopped, more than an actual Harris momentum.
It's based on MAGA having no clue how pissed off (non MAGA) women are. Just looking at the women in my life and how even the traditionally conservative or non-political ones are vocally and passionately pro-Harris. Of course that is anecdotal, but it is such a jarring change that it stands out. I have no doubt this is being replicated around the country (just look at the Iowa poll and analysis). Add to that how dramatically the Trump campaign has imploded the last few weeks and I think this is a comfortable Harris win.
I desperately want to but it is very hard to stream CNN live in the UK, can't be done on Apple TV, can't do it through Sky either anymore