2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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What are the odds of Biden staying ahead in Arizona? That result seems too close/swinging Trumps way to hold for the Dems.
 
RyRoc said:
If he wins Wisconsin , Pennsylvania and Michigan does he still need Nevada?
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No but I don’t think we need to worry about Nevada. He is ahead and remaining votes are mail in votes so should be comfy there in the end
 
VeevaVee said:
Johnny Rotten supporting the billionaire sums up the stupidity behind Trump's success. His reasoning appears to be solely based on him not being a politician and that apparently being refreshing.
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I still don't get this line of thinking. Trump has been a politician the past four years, and could argue the year-plus before that while campaigning for the GOP nom.
 
nimic said:
Whatever ends up happening here, this doesn't bode well for America. I genuinely did think they were sort of "bouncing back", but if not even 4 years of obvious racism, misogyny, a lack of concern for human life and a authoritarian right-wing agenda has convinced more Americans that Trump needs to go.... well, America is fecked, and Americans are to blame.
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For Republicans there is not much to worry about. Biden as a corporate established Democrat doesn't threaten them, will be a lame duck with a red Senate anyway and probably have full on Alzheimers in 4 years. In 4 years Republicans can nominate another ridiculous figure and win easily. These 4 years will merely be a bit of a break where nothing happens.
 
Foxbatt said:
Why is Biden losing Pennsylvania?
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According to NYTimes:

Presidential results by county
We received more votes from Montgomery County. According to turnout estimates, around 1.1 million votes remain in counties won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump 2016 counties have around 480,000 votes left to report. 11m ago
 
Carolina Red said:
It would require an amendment, and the GOP (who used to be in favor of getting rid of it) will defend its existence with their supporters very lives if they have to.
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Yeah, they bitched and bitched about it in 2008, 2012, and even 2016 until that year actually won them the presidency. Suddenly, that crowd went silent on the EC being the shit it is.
 
Raoul said:
Pretty good.
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Can you shed light please? I get the surge going Biden's way in the rust-belt, and that the votes still to be counted in Nevada should be more Dem friendly. But I don't get the certainty over Arizona one bit. Isn't the tide hugely in Trump's favour there?

Edit - plus they've already counted mail-in votes
 
Brwned said:
And if they end up predicting the right result within the state margin of error in the majority of states, how do you explain that? Garbage models tend to be wrong much more often that they're right, and very accurate models tend to be wrong a few times and right most of the time. Which category do you think they will fall into?

I'd say the bigger problem is models are designed to make complicated problems look simple. So people read them in a simplistic way, because of course I can read that one number they've boiled down from thousands of numbers, and misinterpret the findings. So we might agree that sharing the polling numbers with the public is a garbage idea, just for very different reasons.
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I’ll continue to ignore Nate Silver’s model because I have no way of interpreting their statements. Some parameter in some unknown model has some value - so what?
 
nimic said:
Whatever ends up happening here, this doesn't bode well for America. I genuinely did think they were sort of "bouncing back", but if not even 4 years of obvious racism, misogyny, a lack of concern for human life and a authoritarian right-wing agenda has convinced more Americans that Trump needs to go.... well, America is fecked, and Americans are to blame.
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I can't see how anything would have changed for the majority of Trump voters. Many were fine voting for all those things to begin with.
 
Massive Spanner said:
How is that guy at the screen on CNN still going? fecker has been at it all night.
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depending on when you started watching it is a different guy. National Treasure (TM) John King went from like 5 to 3am. His very tiny understudy Phil Mattingly picked up at 3am.
 
If you were Biden - Would you fumigate the White House before taking occupancy?
 
Feck sakes

Had to sort something out was away for 45 mins and it took me like 1 hour to catch up on posts!

I think WI and MI are good.

Arizona, called by some not by all. Is there real risk here?

Nevada is iffy, worries me a bit.

Georgia, I think will be real close. Important to remember it isn’t just the Atlanta area what is still counting. I believe there are Augusta and Savanna areas still counting which lean D. No idea if it’ll be enough but fingers crossed.

PA... it’s really hard to say. Need a bit more actual counts in to get a clearer picture.

Seems fair analysis?
 
Bob Casey on NBC News saying the Democrats expect a 100k victory margin in PA.
 
VeevaVee said:
I can't see how anything would have changed for the majority of Trump voters. Many were fine voting for all those things to begin with.
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I did think the weight of scandals would make some kind of difference, in addition to Trump no longer being the outsider he pretended to be. And the quarter of a million dead Americans, of course.

I guess those things may have had an effect, since Biden could very well end up winning, but still. Ugh.
 
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