2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Tarrou said:
I wouldn't be massively surprised if a winner isn't declared for weeks yet

Trump is going to lose his mind and the chance of him accepting the result (if he loses) is basically zero
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Not if Biden takes 4/6 remaining states. Which looks very possible
 
NieThePiet said:
So 3:3 between Trump (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania) and Biden (Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada), but Biden is winning on away goals.
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Except Georgia and Pennsylvania are likely to go to Biden.

All he needs is Pen, Michigan, and Wisconsin. That's looking a lot more likely now but if he takes those three he can lose the rest and still win.
 
Seriously what the feck is up with Nevada not counting the rest of their votes until tomorrow?

Could've had a result called today if not for them.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Seriously what the feck is up with Nevada not counting the rest of their votes until tomorrow?

Could've had a result called today if not for them.
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It's still possible if Biden takes PA or GA. Still have some hope for Biden pulling it in GA.
 
Is there a chance this gets called today if MI appears safe?
 
Siorac said:
Michigan's still in play, the rest looks likely Republican. Not sure what's going on in Maine, there seems to be no reporting at all.

NC and Georgia might still tighten but probably not enough.
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Georgia is mainly Atlanta left right? If so that's going to shift strongly towards Biden
 
If we can flip Georgia we won't need to wait for Nevada. It's a toss-up but it would be nice to get it called earlier.
 
All that needs to happen now is Trump flips Nevada and I have to drink bleach for the rest of my life, right? If all other trends stay the same.
 
I am not a citizen of the US&A, but we need someone to control the weerus so that the world economy can go ahead.
 
Frosty said:
This has been as much fun as a root canal, but I do take your point!
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As someone who has not been to bed it has been an emotionally wrecking experience. If this ends the way it looks to be going then it was worth it and I will remember this experience forever.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
I actually didn’t claim big swing state margin, I was banging on for days that Florida was closer than all the +3/4/5 polls out there, despite putting it in personal prediction. Also didn’t bash Selzer’s poll.

The point here is polling is an imprecise science at best, if it can be called that, and there’s a million reasons it can go wrong. Change in demographics, change in self-identification, change in media consumption. Pollsters can usually get a fairly representative picture at large, within the MoE, but they are finding it harder and harder, even the best of them, to poll micro pockets of population, or irregular voters who are either not in or hard to reach. That’s a question they have to grapple with and we must be more cynical as a result, but it doesn’t put them on the same level with pollsters who set out with partisan interest in mind, or those who claim they were correct and espouse a theory based on said result while being off more than literally everybody else (USC/Dornsife).
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You have to weigh each pollster with their sampling bias.

I can agree with you on Trafalgar/Susquehanna (less so on Rasmussen) but the point is the same needs to be done with Quinnipiac, CNBC/Change who all have a sampling bias in favour of the Dems.

If you don't do that and call the former "bullshit" but happily accept the latter, elections will continue to have a "systematic polling error".
 
Mr Pigeon said:
All that needs to happen now is Trump flips Nevada and I have to drink bleach for the rest of my life, right? If all other trends stay the same.
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Biden can still win even without Nevada actually, if he wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and one of either Pennsylvania or Georgia.
 
WI_Red said:
As someone who has not been to bed it has been an emotionally wrecking experience. If this ends the way it looks to be going then it was worth it and I will remember this experience forever.
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I went to bed a few hours ago totally deflated, just woke up to the news that its looking hopeful. Thanks for dealing with the roller coaster while I slept
 
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