2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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owlo said:
1. OH and AZ haven't tightened, at least not demonstrably so. There are some arguments that IA has. Momentum matters when there are many undecided, and everybody is going to vote on polling day. I disagree with almost everything in this sentence.

2. There's no evidence of this either.

Hence the optimism.
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1.

OH

IozsVtQ.png


AZ

ZZbFoYs.png


2.

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...s-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

“We actually get a 10-point lead, nationally, for Biden over Trump” when asking voters who they personally plan to support, says Kapteyn. “But if you look at the ‘social-circle’ question, Biden only gets like a 5- or 6-point lead. … In general—and certainly on the phone—people may still be a little hesitant to say to that they’re Trump voters.”
 
SinNombre said:
Rado is not being cynical.

RCP/538 modeling using polls misses two things
1. First derivative matters. While PA and WI have stayed stable, quite a few states have tightened in Trump's favor (OH, IA, AZ). This is generally a really bad sign. Momentum matters a lot in elections in the era of social media and this is a phenomena consistently observed in larger democracies around the world.
2. The shy Trump voter. Models have tried to correct for this, but one of the only pollsters to catch this in 2016 claims that he is still seeing his (2-3 swing in favor of Trump when people are asked whom they think their neighbour is going to vote for, instead of themselves).

I think there is some amount of unfounded optimism in the mainstream media.

Now, there is one factor which is breaking in Biden's favour.

The second wave of Covid is hitting hard and Trump is correctly associated as being unable to control it.
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You're the definition of a pseudo-intellectual. You can craft a few sentences but there is no truth or substance to anything you say.

The major reason for this is your stupid reliance on RCP, which has been completely wrecked by pollsters like Trafalgar and Susquehanna this cycle. Anyone who doesn't use a weighted polling average to support their points has zero credibility.
 
SinNombre said:
1.

big ass graph - see above post
OH

big ass graph - see above post
AZ


2.

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...s-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

“We actually get a 10-point lead, nationally, for Biden over Trump” when asking voters who they personally plan to support, says Kapteyn. “But if you look at the ‘social-circle’ question, Biden only gets like a 5- or 6-point lead. … In general—and certainly on the phone—people may still be a little hesitant to say to that they’re Trump voters.”
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1. Those aren't showing tightening. OH if anything is suddenly looking more promising. AZ had some trashy polls. It looks around 3-6 consistently.

2. That guy talks shit.
 
sport2793 said:
You're the definition of a pseudo-intellectual. You can craft a few sentences but there is no truth or substance to anything you say.

The major reason for this is your stupid reliance on RCP, which has been completely wrecked by pollsters like Trafalgar and Susquehanna this cycle. Anyone who doesn't use a weighted polling average to support their points has zero credibility.
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Apologies for hurting your simple sensibilities. I'll try to dumb down to your level next time, and claim a Biden 100 EC win as certainty.
 
SinNombre said:
https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...s-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

“We actually get a 10-point lead, nationally, for Biden over Trump” when asking voters who they personally plan to support, says Kapteyn. “But if you look at the ‘social-circle’ question, Biden only gets like a 5- or 6-point lead. … In general—and certainly on the phone—people may still be a little hesitant to say to that they’re Trump voters.”
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In the very piece you quoted here, it is noted that USC/Dornsife was wrong (off by R+5 in fact), and Trafalgar has called a litany of races wrong in R favour in there. So is it shy Trump voters (which is a dubious claim at best), or just heavily partisan pollster who are wrong all the time but lucked out once?
 
utdalltheway said:
In what form though? I’m trying to imagine what that would look like.
Mass demonstrations by armed white folks and then what? Ok, so maybe they get into it with LE; that’d be a sight.
Most normal people would know to give them a wide berth so would it look like when they went into the state building in Michigan?
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Try this, Trump is ahead after election day, proclaims victory. Biden refuses to concede because there's millions more ballots left to be counted, and they know they are likely to result in a Dem victory. Trump, his cronies and the GOP elected representatives (plus the right wing media) blast the airwaves with constant claims that the Democrats are trying to rig the election. They run to every court they can find, and every case they lose they immediately appeal. Meanwhile Trump is demanding his supporters come out and defend America and their beloved leader against the hordes of radical socialists and 'thugs' who are trying to hold a coup against him. Meanwhile the left are demonstrating against Trump's extremely blatant attempts to rig the election. Tempers are higher than they've ever been, both sides believe they are defending their country, and basically all the countries elected representatives are openly talking about the other side trying to steal the election.

That's kind of the perfect storm for civil unrest, and frankly it'll be amazing if we don't see some form of it. Basically Joe is going to have to have a REALLY strong election day.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
In the very piece you quoted here, it is noted that USC/Dornsife was wrong (off by R+5 in fact), and Trafalgar has called a litany of races wrong in R favour in there. So is it shy Trump voters (which is a dubious claim at best), or just heavily partisan pollster who are wrong all the time but lucked out once?
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Nate Silver shit all over both those polls on Fridays 538 podcast
 
If Trump's bluster turns out to be more than bluster, and he does indeed attempt to prevent mail in votes being counted if he's ahead on the night, will those folk who were arguing that it's childish to call him a fascist-in-progress be back to plead their case again?
 
Mr Pigeon said:
If Trump's bluster turns out to be more than bluster, and he does indeed attempt to prevent mail in votes being counted if he's ahead on the night, will those folk who were arguing that it's childish to call him a fascist-in-progress be back to plead their case again?
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He.Will.Pivot
 
Mr Pigeon said:
If Trump's bluster turns out to be more than bluster, and he does indeed attempt to prevent mail in votes being counted if he's ahead on the night, will those folk who were arguing that it's childish to call him a fascist-in-progress be back to plead their case again?
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No, but Susan Collins will send him a VERY sternly worded letter.
 
Kentonio said:
Try this, Trump is ahead after election day, proclaims victory. Biden refuses to concede because there's millions more ballots left to be counted, and they know they are likely to result in a Dem victory. Trump, his cronies and the GOP elected representatives (plus the right wing media) blast the airwaves with constant claims that the Democrats are trying to rig the election. They run to every court they can find, and every case they lose they immediately appeal. Meanwhile Trump is demanding his supporters come out and defend America and their beloved leader against the hordes of radical socialists and 'thugs' who are trying to hold a coup against him. Meanwhile the left are demonstrating against Trump's extremely blatant attempts to rig the election. Tempers are higher than they've ever been, both sides believe they are defending their country, and basically all the countries elected representatives are openly talking about the other side trying to steal the election.

That's kind of the perfect storm for civil unrest, and frankly it'll be amazing if we don't see some form of it. Basically Joe is going to have to have a REALLY strong election day.
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Tbf, if the trumpers are out on the streets demonstrating I’d be nowhere near those crazy feckers. You’d want to be mad to try to counter demonstrate those loonies.
I’ll put my faith in the courts. If that doesn’t work then my departure is just sped up a little.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
He.Will.Pivot
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Hopefully head first into a wall.
WI_Red said:
No, but Susan Collins will send him a VERY sternly worded letter.
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Yeah, if it results in just a bunch of folk wagging their fingers at him and saying "that's not very nice, Donnie" then the world is buggered. Trump became the blueprint for other world politicians to ignore facts and do whatever the feck they want and that would make them go even further into wankersville territory.
 
owlo said:
NC is one of the states I have quite a lot of exposure in, so anything I can do to massage my nerves... Did you see my question to you earlier?
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I did not, I'll look for it now: I've been not getting updates for responses/tags in this thread.
 
Eboue said:
Voting now. I love seeing a section titled "vote for not more than 6" and seeing only 6 candidates listed. Really makes you feel like you are participating in democracy.
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Are the Bread & Roses party on the ballot in your state?
 
People talk about shy Trump voters. I am sure there would be shy Biden voters too no? especially from GOP or conservative sides.

My point is they might actually carry those battle ground states for Biden just like what happened with Trump in 2016.

Well, I hope so, anyway.
 
owlo said:
NC is one of the states I have quite a lot of exposure in, so anything I can do to massage my nerves... Did you see my question to you earlier?
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What do you mean by having a lot of exposure in?
 
I fully expect Trump to declare victory on the election night with the help of some of Fox news, OANN and other pro-Trump media outlets dubiously calling it for him whatever the actual voting results might be. I'm really nervous about how the election institutions and the courts will react to that, and whether they will be able to stand up to this pressure. I really hope someone can convince me otherwise and this is just my pessimism acting up.
 
The 538 guys did half a podcast on the shy Trump voter, and they believe it's a myth if that's worth anything.

My in laws are working at two poll locations in Philly, am slightly concerned for their well-being, but hopefully just paranoid.

Whatever happens, I'm looking forward to disconnecting from politics for at least a year on Wednesday. Can get back to watching United...sh*t.
 
Amarsdd said:
I fully expect Trump to declare victory on the election night with the help of some of Fox news, OANN and other pro-Trump media outlets dubiously calling it for him whatever the actual voting results might be. I'm really nervous about how the election institutions and the courts will react to that, and whether they will be able to stand up to this pressure. I really hope someone can convince me otherwise and this is just my pessimism acting up.
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Declaring victory means nothing in the absence of actually winning 270.
 
Raoul said:
Declaring victory means nothing in the absence of actually winning 270.
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I get that. What I'm talking about is whether the election institutions and courts being able to handle the pressure afterwards. By pressure, I mean preventing counting of mail-in, absentee ballots after the election night either through lawsuits or actual physical prevention through protests and hooliganism directed towards those institutions. We know they are clearly thinking about that, we just don't know whether they are capable of actually pulling it off.
 
The United said:
People talk about shy Trump voters. I am sure there would be shy Biden voters too no? especially from GOP or conservative sides.

My point is they might actually carry those battle ground states for Biden just like what happened with Trump in 2016.

Well, I hope so, anyway.
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The silent minority of the majority!
 
Trump denies he will declare election victory prematurely

Donald Trump has denied he plans to declare victory prematurely on election night, hours after Axios reported that he was.

Standing on an airport tarmac at Charlotte Douglas International Airport in North Carolina, Trump was asked about the report. “No, no, that’s a false report,” he said.

Trump then quickly moved on to talk about his opposition to ballots being counted after election day.

“I think it’s a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election,” Trump said. “I think it’s a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over.”

He continued: “I think it’s terrible that we can’t know the results of an election the night of the election. ... We’re going to go in the night of, as soon as that election’s over, we’re going in with our lawyers.”
 
The talking heads will be getting themselves in a tizzy even more over the next few days. Everyone trying to prove they are right...
For my sanity, best to ignore most of it and just check in here every now and again.
 
Rado_N said:
Nah it’s not 2016 at all, it’s an expectation of GOP voter suppression and mass not counting of ballots.
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I do gotta say that despite my feelings and online search history im sure being very clear- that I continue to get hit with pro Trump ads - and.. More concerning imho- Republican party sponsored ads pushing people to vote in person. That imho shows how much their entire gameplan is centered around attacking the mail ins and absentee ballots, and believing they can take it thru in person votes (in case it wasn't clear yet). I wont feel better until come election day the Biden and/or dem voters are showing up en masse for that as well - as f-ed up in a way it is that folks will need to do that now.
 
Frosty said:
Trump denies he will declare election victory prematurely

Donald Trump has denied he plans to declare victory prematurely on election night, hours after Axios reported that he was.

Standing on an airport tarmac at Charlotte Douglas International Airport in North Carolina, Trump was asked about the report. “No, no, that’s a false report,” he said.

Trump then quickly moved on to talk about his opposition to ballots being counted after election day.

“I think it’s a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election,” Trump said. “I think it’s a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over.”

He continued: “I think it’s terrible that we can’t know the results of an election the night of the election. ... We’re going to go in the night of, as soon as that election’s over, we’re going in with our lawyers.”
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I like how he says "I'm not going to do the thing" quickly followed by "I'm totally going to do the thing."
 
I’m still thinking they will fall just short, but this is indeed interesting.



Even if they don’t end up winning, as long as they flip the 9 state legislature seats required to get bipartisan control, it’ll be huge in a census year.
 
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