I hope so. Ironically - in some ways Biden looking like the senior person getting attacked by a spirited "younger" brat probably didnt sit well with those who think respect for the elderly is dead.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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This seems vaguely relevant
Makes for good reading
Texas, Iowa, and NC now toss ups. Trump is quite the magician.
@sport2793 i don’t seem him having much of a path to victory in AZ now. almost 80/20 in my model.
@sport2793 i don’t seem him having much of a path to victory in AZ now. almost 80/20 in my model.
Wow. Louisiana must have irritated god or something, another hurricane will be hitting this weekend, right before early voting starts. Already a strong cat 3 with a hot Lake of Mexico in its path.
Links ?
You'll see it in the next week or so. NC has been a tossup for a while, it's just trending more towards the Biden end now. [Can check on RCP or 538] No good quality polling in IA or TX lately, so most public facing models relying on fundamentals + existing polls, as opposed to my more controversial methodology of also utilising new polls in other states to extrapolate numbers for those states.
Edit: I stand corrected, SCB has IA as a tossup now.
2020 has indeed been a crazy year. Will be interested to see if Abbott's voter suppression will be able to survive court challenges and keep TX red this cycle.
Watching Harrison eviscerate Graham was cathartic to watch. Some polls have him over Graham which would amazing. 2020 owes us political death of the unholy trinity of Cheetoh Boy, Turtle and Lady G.
Ya, I see TX staying red unfortunately. Massive disgrace, but it is what it is. Perhaps they can get a TRO but I don't have much confidence. Sick part is, Abbott has been doing this voter suppression crap for decades. The underlying context of course isn't trump, but he REALLY doesn't want the Texan house going blue, so is desperate.
That's a really interesting race. Graham is getting killed over a host of issues, but the majority will vote red for president, and most people don't split their ballots. I suspsect he'll squeak through. Dems have spent a lot of money there though to really make him sweat.
Biden should keep it low profile now and call the remaining debate off for covid reasons. They need to wrap him all up until the election as Biden dying from this virus is the only thing that can save Trump at this point.
I think he should just insist that he s independently evaluated before showing up for the debate and if he refuses ask him why he s hiding it as much as his taxes. Unless his health is also "being audited" by the IRS.
Harrison looks like an absolute future star to me. I’m curious though, given that he is in a typical red state it might be difficult to become senator there for quite some time. If that is the case, what is his future in politics like?
Hopefully he doesn’t have sketchy skeletons in his closet like Andrew Gillum. Gillum was a future shining star in 2018. Thankfully his current personal tumult wasn’t laid bare while in the governor’s mansion. Harrison does seem to be very on point & one to watch & pull for.
I thought something similar - how can people in financial difficulty vote for someone who is basically holding the people hostage by ending this bill?
Do you do this professionally?
So if getting infected hurt his numbers, will a swift "recovery" boost them in the newer polls in the next few days?
I don't see how, the only people that would buy that "recovery" are the diehard cultists who will vote for him no matter what.
Plus those number were before him ending the stimulus, they'll tank even more now.
Why are you all jinxing Biden?
Guys, his plan isn't to win the election, it's to steal the election.
That’s not going to work if he ends up losing in a landslide though.
Imagine him losing on election night and then claiming that we must wait for the mail ballots to be counted , only for Biden's lead to increase by a bit every day during the count.
And then you wake up because it's 2020 and we can't have nice things.
They dont want to debate. Thats all that is. They're going to try and force Harris to pull the pin and blame safety, but they're seriously concerned after the shit trump has pulled.
She should turn up with her own plexiglass divider and force Pence to walk out.
Men are dumb
For my sins.
Bad use of data. I could also pull poll data out my ass. We already know why males without college education are more likely to vote for Trump. Highlighting one poll does nothing.
If Joe Biden is declared the winner of the Presidential election, will you accept the outcome and wish Biden the best?
Accept outcome:
Male: 49%
Female: 37%
Cuban American women:
81% Trump
178% Biden
People who have already voted early:
Males 22%
Women 17%
Males:
Biden 49%
Trump 47%
It's a red state anyway, i live here and the only blue it will get will be from New Orleans and the metro area (where i live) also i'm getting the hell outter here and driving to Miami!
By the way, unless something has changed since...
“There’s no contingency plan...”
https://www.npr.org/sections/itsall...ency-plan-if-disaster-strikes-on-election-day
Suppose Sandy had struck a week later. With power out across multiple states, how would people be able to vote on Election Day?
"If this were happening next week, we have no provisions for dealing with this in law," says Thad Hall, a political scientist at the University of Utah.
Many states have contingency plans for conducting elections in the wake of a natural disaster or terrorist attack. But they tend to focus on strictly local effects — moving polling places over to a neighboring precinct, for example.
There's no controlling authority when it comes to rescheduling presidential voting when roads are blocked and power is down in several states at once, according to the Congressional Research Service.
“There’s no contingency plan...”
https://www.npr.org/sections/itsall...ency-plan-if-disaster-strikes-on-election-day
Suppose Sandy had struck a week later. With power out across multiple states, how would people be able to vote on Election Day?
"If this were happening next week, we have no provisions for dealing with this in law," says Thad Hall, a political scientist at the University of Utah.
Many states have contingency plans for conducting elections in the wake of a natural disaster or terrorist attack. But they tend to focus on strictly local effects — moving polling places over to a neighboring precinct, for example.
There's no controlling authority when it comes to rescheduling presidential voting when roads are blocked and power is down in several states at once, according to the Congressional Research Service.
That’s terrifying. We could easily get a late season strong storm that hits some population center head on. To not have a contingency plan for this is criminal. I was being very sarcastic about ‘god’ smiting Louisiana, but, karma works in mysterious ways. I could also see it play out in early November & cruelly affect a wide swath of the populace.
To be fair, a lot of contingency planning has been done, and done well for this election. Even if there was a major incident, mail in and absentee voting has been hugely expanded already due to COVID, and officials are ready for a 'long' election. Interestingly, the CA document they cited in that article is gone now. However I did find an updated version from Jan 2020. Emergency generators and stuff seems smart.
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/pdfs/natural-disaster-guidelines.pdf
I'm not sure what more of a 'national' disaster could happen which can't be handled with the state measures, other than something like a big Yellowstone eruption, in which case I suspect the election would be plain suspended.
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