2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[entropy]

 

[Silva]

 

[Atze-Peng]

You really get arrested for just that? Sounds to me like there is more to the story than just "accidentally walking into a girls dorm" - to give it some hyperbole. Anyone aware of Ohios laws can answer that?

 

[The Firestarter]

Maybe he tried to have a shower there.

 

[Raoul]

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I saw that earlier, but without the Upper Midwest safe I’m still nervous.

 

[MTF]

I saw that earlier, but without the Upper Midwest safe I’m still nervous.

Yeah, it's cool and all but I think we learned last time to really ignore the national polls. PA, OH, MI, WI and FL are what we really care about, plus a few other small ones.

 

[freeurmind]

National polls are about as useful as a pregnancy test in a maternity ward.

 

[Raoul]

Yeah, it's cool and all but I think we learned last time to really ignore the national polls. PA, OH, MI, WI and FL are what we really care about, plus a few other small ones.

A decent sized national lead usually filters down into the states. Trump can win a gen if his opponent wins the the popular vote by 2.1%, but not if his opponent wins it by 4-6%. Biden is up around 6 at the moment.

 

[Kentonio]

And I'm sure lots of Democrats think that's awesome, rather than it making them want to bang their heads repeatedly into a table..

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[GiddyUp]

For men who rape, it is not about sex. It is about exerting power over women. Biden has done this repeatedly over women and girls. Even little girls. Its therefore consistent with what Tara Reade said. That Biden said at the end of the encounter. “You are nothing” That is what rapists think of women. That they are nothing.

The fact the Democratic Party and its supporters are still willing to push this man into the Oval Office says it all. Some even threatening the woman and her daughter.

Tara Reade has volunteered to not just take a Lie Detector Test but also say what she said Under Oath.

The question is not about Trump.

Its about doing what is right.

Biden rapes little girls?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

National polls are about as useful as a pregnancy test in a maternity ward.

They are probably not useless but I don't find them particularly interesting and I'd say the same thing here I always say in the football forums when people make random predictions. Forget what you think and just look at the betting markets. High-liquidity betting markets predict future events better than anything.

As of now (based on £30m matched on Betfair):

Trump: ~48%
Biden: ~43%

 

[Beachryan]

They are probably not useless but I don't find them particularly interesting and I'd say the same thing here I always say in the football forums when people make random predictions. Forget what you think and just look at the betting markets. High-liquidity betting markets predict future events better than anything.

As of now (based on £30m matched on Betfair):

Trump: ~48%
Biden: ~43%

Wasn't brexit like 7-1 to one against in betting markets the day of the vote?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Wasn't brexit like 7-1 to one against in betting markets the day of the vote?

And Watford were 6/1 to beat Liverpool. Doesn't mean the market was wrong.

 

[berbatrick]

She was Pete's campaign manager and the leader of a small caucus of "indepndent democrats" who voted for 5 years to give Republicans control of the NY state senate and were secretly controlled by Cuomo. (None of this is conjecture, the caucus was disbanded after Politico did an expose and then lost a bunch of primaries).


...

 

[Atze-Peng]

Wasn't brexit like 7-1 to one against in betting markets the day of the vote?

Clinton was also meant to win with like 90% likelihood. These polls are never accurate for various reasons - from who is gonna be willing to answer these questions, the time calls happen, the location, etc.

And Watford were 6/1 to beat Liverpool. Doesn't mean the market was wrong.

Apples and oranges. A competitive sports game isn't the same as trying to get a representative sample size of the populations political views.

 

[bleedred]

The media seems to be confident that Senate will be overturned. Are the polls suggesting them credible? Any idea?

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

Centrists in the establishment have been using identity politics to smear others who they dislike for years.

Really? And it's not done by left or right?

 

[groovyalbert]

So haven't really hung out here since the Democratic primaries... is this election still likely to happen?

 

[berbatrick]

Most voters say that allegations of sexual assault against this year’s presumed presidential nominees, even if true, would not be disqualifying, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey finds.
Just 29% of voters, the survey finds, say that if former Senate aide Tara Reade’s allegation against former Vice President Joe Biden is true, it would disqualify him from the presidency ― 43% say it would be relevant but not disqualifying, 16% that it wouldn’t be relevant to the election, and the rest that they’re unsure. A slightly higher 36% of voters say that the multiple allegations against President Donald Trump, if true, are disqualifying, with 35% calling them relevant but not disqualifying, 21% irrelevant, and the rest unsure. (The order in which the questions about Biden and Trump were asked was rotated for different respondents.)

Underlying those numbers is a somewhat muted partisan divide. Republican and Republican-leaning voters don’t see it as a death knell for either candidate ― 32% say it would be disqualifying for Biden, and just 12% that it would be for Trump.

A modest 55% majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say the allegations against Trump, if true, are disqualifying, with just 23% saying the same of the allegation against Biden. Their reactions to Trump suggest a shift within the party since the fall of 2016. Back then, about three-quarters of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said the allegations against Trump, if true, disqualified him.

The fall among Dem voters that Trump's assaults are disqulifying is interesting and should be the end of metoo, since it has been rejected by a bipartisan majority.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/poll-trump-biden-assault-allegations_n_5eb9c394c5b67cab4e0dcb95

 

[berbatrick]

Looking at the crosstabs, there are two (age and race) which will be more-or-less fully explained by partsian leaning. The interesting one is income, for both Trump and Biden poorer voters think it would be disqualifying.
https://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/athena/files/2020/05/11/5eb9c271c5b67cab4e0dc9f7.pdf

 

[Foxbatt]

All these shenanigans are playing into Trump's hand. The General Flynn case and Joe Biden and the sexual assault allegations etc. I am having a gut feeling that he may get relected if things like these keep happening.

 

[Winrar]

The media seems to be confident that Senate will be overturned. Are the polls suggesting them credible? Any idea?

I think AZ, CO, and ME will flip blue while AL goes other way around. NC is up in the air but even if it flips blue that's still 51-49 for Republicans. I wouldn't exactly be too confident, but it is plausible.

I'm pretty sure the senate will flip by 2022 however, given that opposition party is generally favored during off year elections. Incidentally same thing happened when Obama was in the office, losing House in the first midterm election and losing Senate in the second midterm.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

So haven't really hung out here since the Democratic primaries... is this election still likely to happen?

Yes, otherwise the US would head towards a Constitutional crisis it hasn’t seen since...well, a long time. I think the only question is how much of a role mail-in voting plays in each state.

 

[SharpshooterTom]

Really? And it's not done by left or right?

Oh its definitely done by the right and unapologetically so.

But aspects of the democrat friendly media like CNN and MSNBC champion #MeToo and womens rights, so when they are inconsistent in how they cover sexual assault cases in a partisan way they tend to lose credibility.

 

[SharpshooterTom]

The media seems to be confident that Senate will be overturned. Are the polls suggesting them credible? Any idea?

Given 90% of the electorate engages in straight ticket voting, the better Joe Biden does the better democrats will subsequently do downballot.

If the democrats win by +5% or greater, they'll probably win the senate, if its a close election within the margin of error, the GOP will fancy their chances of holding the senate.

 

[Eboue]

The fall among Dem voters that Trump's assaults are disqulifying is interesting and should be the end of metoo, since it has been rejected by a bipartisan majority.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/poll-trump-biden-assault-allegations_n_5eb9c394c5b67cab4e0dcb95

This country is a disgrace

 

[Revan]

I think AZ, CO, and ME will flip blue while AL goes other way around. NC is up in the air but even if it flips blue that's still 51-49 for Republicans. I wouldn't exactly be too confident, but it is plausible.

I'm pretty sure the senate will flip by 2022 however, given that opposition party is generally favored during off year elections. Incidentally same thing happened when Obama was in the office, losing House in the first midterm election and losing Senate in the second midterm.

GOP has 53 seats. If all four seats you mentioned turn blue (while Jones loses Alabama), it is gonna be 50-50 and so in the hands of the VP.

 

[Charlie Foley]

This country is a disgrace

Really? And other countries aren’t a disgrace?


(am I doing this right or...?)

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Apples and oranges. A competitive sports game isn't the same as trying to get a representative sample size of the populations political views.

It's has nothing to do with the political views of the population. It's an efficient financial market that is way more accurate and predictive than any poll.

 

[SharpshooterTom]

 

[Raoul]

It's has nothing to do with the political views of the population. It's an efficient financial market that is way more accurate and predictive than any poll.

What inside information would a betting market know that the actual people who participate in polls and vote politicians into office don't ?

 

[berbatrick]

Bettind odds moved in line with the polls and hence got the primary wrong.

 

[Beachryan]

Personally I don't agree at all that betting markets would be better than actual polling. Markets can be skewed very easily to reflect the bias/lack of knowledge of betting folk/syndicates.

538 really isn't that bad people. If you want best guess I'd use that.

 

[Raoul]

Personally I don't agree at all that betting markets would be better than actual polling. Markets can be skewed very easily to reflect the bias/lack of knowledge of betting folk/syndicates.

538 really isn't that bad people. If you want best guess I'd use that.

That or the RCP poll of polls is generally pretty good.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

What inside information would a betting market know that the actual people who participate in polls and vote politicians into office don't ?

It's more Wisdom of the Crowd than inside information. And the fact that bettors actually put their money where their mouth is.

Bettind odds moved in line with the polls and hence got the primary wrong.

Your wording shows a lack of understanding of probability. It's not 0 or 1. If an outcome with a 2% chance does happen, you cannot come back and say the probability was wrong. 2 out of 100 times this outcome was expected to happen so a sample of 1 is totally irrelevant. The prediction could look totally different on election day but at this point in time, the betting odds reflect the true probabilities of the result better than any poll. The closer we get to November and the more information becomes available the lines will move accordingly and become sharper. If Joe Biden has a heart attack tomorrow his price will drift out. That doesn't mean his current implied chance of winning is wrong because that information simply is not available yet.

 

[berbatrick]

It's more Wisdom of the Crowd than inside information. And the fact that bettors actually put their money where their mouth is.



Your wording shows a lack of understanding of probability. It's not 0 or 1. If an outcome with a 2% chance does happen, you cannot come back and say the probability was wrong. 2 out of 100 times this outcome was expected to happen so a sample of 1 is totally irrelevant. The prediction could look totally different on election day but at this point in time, the betting odds reflect the true probabilities of the result better than any poll. The closer we get to November and the more information becomes available the lines will move accordingly and become sharper. If Joe Biden has a heart attack tomorrow his price will drift out. That doesn't mean his current implied chance of winning is wrong because that information simply is not available yet.

Betting followed nothing more than the polling at that moment, the crowd in its collective money-weighted wisdom followed the RCP average.

 

[sun_tzu]

so for the last 12 hours trumps pinned tweet is this
Obamagate - and a Tucker carlson rant


looks like the election strategy is firmly in place now

 

[MTF]

Betting followed nothing more than the polling at that moment, the crowd in its collective money-weighted wisdom followed the RCP average.

As someone who's in financial markets which are arguably more sophisticated than betting markets, this is pretty much how it goes. Considering that investors/bettors aren't fools but neither are they god-like beings that individually or collectively know more than other folks including forecasters, investors' weighted opinions will gravitate towards the most highly regarded forecasts/models. Whenever 538 has their election model up, I doubt that betting markets will imply odds much different from then ones that they post.