It's because a lot of people on here only watch Manchester United.
Liam Delap | £30m release clause?
- Thread starter BuzzKillington
- Start date
30m is a very honest price
Great price at £30m, £40m was on the edge for me but £30m feels very reasonable. Especially given what we paid for Hojlund
Appears to be between us and Chelsea currently - could change if Arsenal / Liverpool step up their reported interest.
Chelsea likely to have Europa through winning the Conference league but they are a bit of a basket case like United - pretty close in terms of reasons for choosing one over the other.
Chelsea likely to have Europa through winning the Conference league but they are a bit of a basket case like United - pretty close in terms of reasons for choosing one over the other.
If its only 30 mill we should sell Hojlund for 25/30 with a sell on/buy back clause and get Delap + Gykores/Oshihmen. Now that would be a much better forward line.
Are there any buyers for Höjlund?
30 million is a sensible price. With Wilcox I think we will get this done. I can genuinely see Rasmus having a better season next year with some help/competition and more creativity around him. I know I'm in the minority on that but I'm hopeful
Many do. But over the long term it's typically by a small amount relative to the total number of goals they score. The ability to generate xG is far, far more important in elite goalscorers than finishing, as it accounts for a much greater portion of their goal performance versus the average.
And even within that there are a lot of elite goalscorers who finish roughly on par with their xG, even more so in one-off seasons.
Ronaldo finished on par with his xG across the final 7 seasons of his career in European leagues. Haaland is now in his second season in a row of finishing level with or under xG, despite having overperformed before then. Salah has finished under his xG in half his indvidual seasons since joining Liverpool, and if you remove his first season there he's level with xG across the folllwing 7. Lewandowski has finished level with xG across the last 8 seasons. Etc, etc.
But regardless of all that, it's simply a fact that (all else being equal) a player who is scoring at X rate while underperforming his xG is more likely to continue scoring at or better than that rate than a player scoring at X rate while overperforming his xG. That how the stat functions.
This makes complete sense. I guess what you'd be concerned about would be a young striker who underperformed on xG for 4 years aged 19-23 then had one season of overperforming. You might argue the overperformance was the start of them becoming at last a top striker, or that it might be a one-off season. But overall, you would absolutely expect an elite striker to consistently overperform their xG.
Delap won’t be going somewhere to ride the bench. I don’t know why people keep on suggesting Delap + a striker in their peak age. It isn’t happening.
Delap plus Cherki plus a 'Vitinha' style CM..... that might be fun
Just having another striker to bring off the bench is a huge improvement to our chances. Fergie always had 4, just to keep options/freshness and competition. In a world of 1 up top, we need at least 2, more like 3 imo.
It's worth noting that at Hojlunds current age, Delap scored 8 goals in 32 games in the championship for Hull City.
There have been the odd rumours of a couple of teams in Italy, Napoli being one, can't remember the other, but nothing concrete
And Cunha please.
Yeah this is why I would want Hojlund shifted. Because if he isn’t then Delap coming would mean he is the main striker
Was a rumour about West Ham
Going to come down to whoever pays him the most wages and it will be interesting to see how United compare on that front considering the Mainoo situation.
Other issue is the 9 year contracts Chelsea are offering. Basically one Chelsea contract means you are set for life.
Hopefully we can sway him with the guarantee of being a starter as we don't have anyone better. With Chelsea you don't even know if you would ever play for them.
He will get plenty of game time and youth players are fkn idiots for wanting to be first choice at a young age at a big club unless they are that good i.e. Rooney levels. Which he's not . The best thing that can happen for him is to have an experienced striker ahead of him to take the pressure and learn from. In 3/4 years he will be ready if he's good enough and can take the experienced strikers place.
I agree with that. I hope that we do restrain ourselves from going overboard, and offer wages in line with our current similiar profiles. I.e. in the range of Hojlund (85k) to Amad (120k).
If higher wages is what it takes to get him then he shouldn't come. Stupid wages means more difficulties selling/less resale value.
He's not a youth player. He's a 22 year old multiple PL clubs are interested in signing as their first choice striker, because he's just had a breakout season in the PL. He'd be an idiot to go anywhere he isn't first choice.
At 30 million it is a bit of a no brainer. This is actually the type of punt worth taking instead of spending 73 million on lads who've played a handful of games in Serie A.
Selling Hojlund for 25-30m would surely be a loss on paper as he’s only two years into a five year deal? I don’t think we’re in a position to worsen PSR just for the sake of getting rid of players.
Yeah, I guess I should have said consistently out perform. Delap has only had one season, but it shouldn't be used as a stick to beat him with, but definitely means to have caution with inferring he would continue that level of scoring.
That's not how statistics work. You can infer that from the statistic, but that doesn't make it true. All it tells you is based on the model, on chances they have had, they should score x amount of goals. Isak has outpeformed his xG for 3 seasons and Nicholas Jackson has underperfomred for his 2 season in the prem. You're not going to tell me Isak will score less and Jackson will score more and regress to their xG stat, it just tells you about their finishing ability.
Would we? Hojlund had one purple patch in the middle of the season where he got 7 goals and 2 assists in 6 games. Which is great of course, but otherwise he had 3 goals and 0 assists for the rest of the PL season. We'd be looking at that record as being extremely risky. Promising if we could get that purple patch more often, but very risky.
Delap's goals have been more consistently spread out, with there only being one time that he's gone more than four games without a goal. Still a lot of risk of course, but not as much. I admit I haven't watched Ipswich play, but from what people have said (and what I've seen purely on youtube vids) Delap's all round game seems stronger as well.
Its not just goals with Delap. He's a fundamentally a better rounded player than Hojlund.
Yes, we all want Hojlund to do well but you can't will a great player out of him. Even in his purple patch he was still showing limitations in his all round game. He was still wanting to get into needless WWE moments with the opposition. His movement was still debatable. He did show signs of good work ethic though but even that looks to have gone from his game.
Personally I still don't see him as a leading forward/ number 9.
I think he can be a sound wide-right side forward but he'd still not be at the level we're aspiring to achieve because technically he's still not great.
He's a mediocre player who can pop up now and again with decent moments.
Yes, we all want Hojlund to do well but you can't will a great player out of him. Even in his purple patch he was still showing limitations in his all round game. He was still wanting to get into needless WWE moments with the opposition. His movement was still debatable. He did show signs of good work ethic though but even that looks to have gone from his game.
Personally I still don't see him as a leading forward/ number 9.
I think he can be a sound wide-right side forward but he'd still not be at the level we're aspiring to achieve because technically he's still not great.
He's a mediocre player who can pop up now and again with decent moments.
That's not what I meant.
My point is that if you were judging two players solely off these stats, and if those two players had the exact same rate of returns across that sample period, then the player who was returning at that rate while overperforming xG would be less likely to continue to do so than the one doing so while underperforming.
Because they would effectively be scoring the exact same number of goals, but one would be generating greater xG. Which is more predictive of future goals than finishing better from less xG.
To put it another way, imagine we had the choice between signing two Liam Delaps, who were identical in every single way, except:
#1 - Scores 18 goals from 22xG.
#2 - Scores 18 goals from 14xG.
Based on that information alone, #1 is the better buy, despite #2 notionally having notionally demonstrated better "finishing".
So when The Athletic say he has the 4th biggest overperformance in the league, it would be a more positive sign from our POV if he was getting those same goals without it being an overperformance at all. Because overperformance is less likely to be sustained.
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Does this analysis not completely ignore all of the other factors that go into contributing to a player xG, I.e., other players putting them in good positions to score?
I'm not sure that's true. Even most elite strikers seem to average about the same amount of goals as what their xG indicates they should get. Ronaldo, Lewandowski, Salah, Haaland, etc all seem to do that. Sure they'll have some seasons where they outperform it, but then they'll have others where they underperform and others where they get about what expected. So it all averages out fairly evenly over time.
Messi is obviously a freak in that regard (plus in most other aspects
), but most don't seem to be. What makes them elite is that they are able to get into good scoring opportunities so incredibly often. It brings to mind a comment I made back in the day about Ronaldo's 07/08 and 08/09 performances that for a player that was doing everything to such an incredible standard, the single biggest weapon he had was his off-the-ball movement in attacking areas which was creating so many chances to score.Kane seems to the other 'elite' striker who is fairly consistently outperforming his. Mbappe also, but most of his career has been at a lower level and he's only slightly outperforming it this season now he's at a stronger league. Will be interesting to see if he continues that going forward. I see in a later post you mention Isak and yes he has outperformed in two of his three seasons (the other was so close I'd class it as even rather than outperforming), so maybe he'll continue on to be another but it's a fairly small sample size so far. Actually I just found that Lukaku seems to outperform his xG most of the time as well.
Don’t think the manager - like his predecessor - is interested in that type, sadly. If you are, those tend to be the ones you prioritise as a key signing.
The more I think about it, the more I think Delap is our main option if we don't win Europa league. Berrada has talked about budget with Europa in mind and then another budget if we make the Champions league. So assuming we don't win Europa, Delap makes a lot of sense as we won't have a huge budget. But if we make Champions league, we need to think if Delap will score enough goals to make us become a regular Champions league participant and then challenging for the league in the medium term. I don't think he is that player, he seems to have one great skill, which is he is a really good carrier of the ball but I don't know if his game is well rounded enough. His touches, passing stats are all very low, could also be due to Ipswich probably having low possession but I don't see how he becomes a dominant player in a team that has more possession.
So if we make the champions league, then we should go for Osimhen or Ekitike since we will have a larger budget. Osimhen is in the middle of his peak and will get us goals. Ekitike is already a good striker but young enough to continue to improve and is great technically. Osimhen or Ekitike with Rasmus on the bench makes sense. Zirkzee will largely play 10 and be 3rd choice no 9 option.
So if we make the champions league, then we should go for Osimhen or Ekitike since we will have a larger budget. Osimhen is in the middle of his peak and will get us goals. Ekitike is already a good striker but young enough to continue to improve and is great technically. Osimhen or Ekitike with Rasmus on the bench makes sense. Zirkzee will largely play 10 and be 3rd choice no 9 option.
It is annoying how that sadly does seem to be the case but maybe, more hope than anything, Ruben sees Mainoo as one of those players longterm.
If people thought Rashford was lazy and infuriating, you’ll have fun with Cunha, laziest player in the league and statistically too.
Messi is obviously a freak in that regard (plus in most other aspects
Indeed.
Or to flip the example, below are the best "finishers" (as per xG overperformance) between 10/11 and 22/23:
1) Kevin De Bruyne
2) Son Heung Min
3) Radja Nainggolan
4) Dries Mertens
5) Payet
6) Hakan Calhanoglu
7) Josip Ilicic
8) Arjen Robben
9) Eden Hazard
10) Lionel Messi
Finishing is an ability, and is part of what makes many of those elite players. But it doesn't make them elite goalscorers. Because getting chances matters much more.
Sell/Loan Hojlund + Sign Delap/Mateta and Jonathan David
That's not really what that list shows, though. That's pretty much just a collection of players who are good at long shots (i.e. converting low xG chances).
It's not what most people mean by 'finishing', I don't think.
Agree, got to trust the new football management in Wilcox and team and trust they can identify and build a new team with the right mentality.
Nah, sorry, I think you deducing something that's not there. They don't necessarily generate the xG. Sure, some may be, but mostly if you're a striker, it's indicative of the service you're getting.
There's no way of saying who's a better signing from those stats. I can tell you #2 had a better season, because #1 missed a load of gilt edge changes or more half chances. You'd have to look at all of #2's goals and determine is that really reproduceable long term. If they were 4 of them were 40 yard screamers, deflected shots, etc. (i.e. very low xg shots turning into goals) you'd have to take that into account. It seems like you're just not bothering to factor in #1's profligacy.
I mean "outperform" in the sense of number goals > xG. It doens't have to be by much, but it still is outperformance none the less.I'm not sure that's true. Even most elite strikers seem to average about the same amount of goals as what their xG indicates they should get. Ronaldo, Lewandowski, Salah, Haaland, etc all seem to do that. Sure they'll have some seasons where they outperform it, but then they'll have others where they underperform and others where they get about what expected. So it all averages out fairly evenly over time.
Messi is obviously a freak in that regard (plus in most other aspects
Kane seems to the other 'elite' striker who is fairly consistently outperforming his. Mbappe also, but most of his career has been at a lower level and he's only slightly outperforming it this season now he's at a stronger league. Will be interesting to see if he continues that going forward. I see in a later post you mention Isak and yes he has outperformed in two of his three seasons (the other was so close I'd class it as even rather than outperforming), so maybe he'll continue on to be another but it's a fairly small sample size so far. Actually I just found that Lukaku seems to outperform his xG most of the time as well.
I feel like you also just proved my point for me with all your examples? Just looking at Lautaro Martinez who is probably Lukaku level seems to regularly has too (bar this year). It just seems to be a trait with the majoirty of the good goal scorers.
Anyway on Delap, I think his stats should be looked at with caution, as it's one season - but they are positive
If you´re moaning about Hojlund and Zirkzee constantly losing the ball but don´t want us to sign Delap, you really have to ask yourself why.
Running with the ball and keeping it, holding up play and sucking in defenders, are things we lack and are his obvious strengths. He has a strong build and is tall but not so much that it takes away from his dynamism and power on the turn.
Then you add in the fact that he has scored more than any of our strikers at a much more limited side.
This is another case of people just not liking the name and prestige of the player rather than the actually qualities they can see. We had it last year when we were linked with Sander Berge. People didn´t want him here because he was a tall Noggie from Burnley, but he has looked excellent at Fulham.
Running with the ball and keeping it, holding up play and sucking in defenders, are things we lack and are his obvious strengths. He has a strong build and is tall but not so much that it takes away from his dynamism and power on the turn.
Then you add in the fact that he has scored more than any of our strikers at a much more limited side.
This is another case of people just not liking the name and prestige of the player rather than the actually qualities they can see. We had it last year when we were linked with Sander Berge. People didn´t want him here because he was a tall Noggie from Burnley, but he has looked excellent at Fulham.