Conflict in the DR Congo

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
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Didn't find a recent thread on Congo so figured I'd make one.

Rwandan army ‘ready to invade DRC’ and help rebels seize city
Large numbers of troops from Rwanda have been pouring across the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo to help rebels seize the regional capital of Goma before an emergency UN meeting about the crisis takes place on Monday, intelligence officials have warned.
Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) soldiers are believed to have secretly crossed into the eastern DRC over the past few days to assist a lightning offensive by the M23 militia.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-...help-rebels-seize-city?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
 
Sounds complicated, hopefully it's resolved quickly.
 
DR Congo severs ties with Rwanda as M23 rebel group closes in on Goma
The Democratic Republic of the Congo cut off diplomatic ties with Rwanda on Sunday as the rebel group M23, believed to be backed by Kigali, closed in on the eastern city of Goma.
The M23 rebel group has made significant territorial gains along the border with Rwanda in recent weeks, closing in on Goma, the provincial capital of around 2 million people and a regional hub for security and humanitarian efforts.
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/...h-rwanda-as-m23-rebel-group-closes-in-on-goma
 
Is there a summary available of what's led to this?
 
Ridiculous that a glorified dictator / warlord like Kagame has such backing from the likes of the UK and the US. The suffering due to all these power plays over land and minerals is off the charts.
 
Goma is one of those random world cities I've always wanted to visit, such a shame about current events. M23 and Rwanda have been in this position before and they were forced back by international pressure, I don't know how much power France, US or EU have with the parties right now but it would be funny if China was the one to push for a pulling back of forces.
 
Congo's M23 rebels take control of Goma airport, embassies attacked in capital
Rebels seized the airport of east Congo's largest city Goma on Tuesday, potentially cutting off the main route for aid to reach hundreds of thousands of displaced people, after capturing the city in an offensive that left dead bodies lying in the streets.
In the Congolese capital Kinshasa, 1,600 km (1,000 miles) west of Goma, protesters attacked a U.N. compound and embassies including those of Rwanda, France and the United States, expressing anger at what they said was foreign interference. Looters ransacked the embassy of Kenya.
https://www.reuters.com/world/afric...ts-resistance-after-entering-goma-2025-01-28/
 
I was going to post about this in the existing big Africa thread but this wretched conflict has been going on for what, over 20 years? So it surely deserves its own (with the qualifier that this has primarily been occuring in Eastern DR Congo (Kivu region specifically), bordering Uganda/Rwanda/Burundi)



That's the problem, DR Congo absolutely does not have the military or logistical capability to force matters in the eastern part of the country, which is as distinct a place from Kinshasa (DR Congo's capital) as Portugal is from Ukraine. It is infuriating how much of a failed state it is compared to neighboring states with fewer resources

Is there a summary available of what's led to this?

How much time do you have?

Abbreviated summary: So in the latter days of Mobutu's reign and looting of DR Congo, the Rwandan genocide happened (1994). Eventually Kagame and his Tutsi forces were able to invade Rwanda and stop the genocide, but the Hutu genocidiares and a ton of refugees fled Rwanda across the border into DR Congo's east, and the genocidiares (not exactly apologetic) continued to pose a threat to Rwanda and Kagame. Plus, they got support from Mobutu. Rwandan forces started to move across the border to confront the genocidiares and force the refugees to move back to Rwanda, but they also allied with some of Mobutu's Congolese adversaries and just kept pushing deeper and deeper into DR Congo until they reached Kinshasa, forcing the fall of Mobutu.

Then Rwanda discovered that Eastern Congo was full of mineral resources, so why not maintain a sphere of influence over the region next to it and take a slice of the mining profits, and ensure that there remains a buffer between Rwanda and DR Congo?

So with DR Congo unable to exert any power in Eastern Congo, a power vacuum formed, filled by local groups vying for control of the resources, and the civilians are unfortunately caught between the violence. And this has been going on for over 20 years. That's the backdrop to current events

One of these groups is M23, and several organizations have linked them to Rwanda (equivalent would be Wagner to Russia). Officially, they claim they are protecting the interests of local Tutsi (the lines drawn in Berlin at that conference were arbitrary so you have native Tutsis in DR Congo as well) against another group (FDLR) comprised of Hutus including genocidiares from 1994 (yep still alive and thriving). Unofficially and realistically? They are a covert arm of Rwanda and Kagame specifically to maintain Rwanda's silent fiefdom in Eastern Congo.

In recent months they've been able to take over territory culminating in the fall of Goma.

I'm not sure what can be done about the situation. Yes, the US and others can force Rwanda (and Uganda) to stop meddling about in the region, however once they withdraw, there is going to be a power vacuum DR Congo is simply incapable of filling due to it being a failed state, and the alternative will just be local groups fighting each other for little more than the right to tax raw coltan loaded onto a dodgy plane going to Belarus, and it can't be emphasized enough how the civilians on ground are the real losers. sexual assault, disease, lost limbs and lives... It's hell.
 
I was going to post about this in the existing big Africa thread but this wretched conflict has been going on for what, over 20 years? So it surely deserves its own (with the qualifier that this has primarily been occuring in Eastern DR Congo (Kivu region specifically), bordering Uganda/Rwanda/Burundi)



That's the problem, DR Congo absolutely does not have the military or logistical capability to force matters in the eastern part of the country, which is as distinct a place from Kinshasa (DR Congo's capital) as Portugal is from Ukraine. It is infuriating how much of a failed state it is compared to neighboring states with fewer resources



How much time do you have?

Abbreviated summary: So in the latter days of Mobutu's reign and looting of DR Congo, the Rwandan genocide happened (1994). Eventually Kagame and his Tutsi forces were able to invade Rwanda and stop the genocide, but the Hutu genocidiares and a ton of refugees fled Rwanda across the border into DR Congo's east, and the genocidiares (not exactly apologetic) continued to pose a threat to Rwanda and Kagame. Plus, they got support from Mobutu. Rwandan forces started to move across the border to confront the genocidiares and force the refugees to move back to Rwanda, but they also allied with some of Mobutu's Congolese adversaries and just kept pushing deeper and deeper into DR Congo until they reached Kinshasa, forcing the fall of Mobutu.

Then Rwanda discovered that Eastern Congo was full of mineral resources, so why not maintain a sphere of influence over the region next to it and take a slice of the mining profits, and ensure that there remains a buffer between Rwanda and DR Congo?

So with DR Congo unable to exert any power in Eastern Congo, a power vacuum formed, filled by local groups vying for control of the resources, and the civilians are unfortunately caught between the violence. And this has been going on for over 20 years. That's the backdrop to current events

One of these groups is M23, and several organizations have linked them to Rwanda (equivalent would be Wagner to Russia). Officially, they claim they are protecting the interests of local Tutsi (the lines drawn in Berlin at that conference were arbitrary so you have native Tutsis in DR Congo as well) against another group (FDLR) comprised of Hutus including genocidiares from 1994 (yep still alive and thriving). Unofficially and realistically? They are a covert arm of Rwanda and Kagame specifically to maintain Rwanda's silent fiefdom in Eastern Congo.

In recent months they've been able to take over territory culminating in the fall of Goma.

I'm not sure what can be done about the situation. Yes, the US and others can force Rwanda (and Uganda) to stop meddling about in the region, however once they withdraw, there is going to be a power vacuum DR Congo is simply incapable of filling due to it being a failed state, and the alternative will just be local groups fighting each other for little more than the right to tax raw coltan loaded onto a dodgy plane going to Belarus, and it can't be emphasized enough how the civilians on ground are the real losers. sexual assault, disease, lost limbs and lives... It's hell.
Thank you for that!
 
I was going to post about this in the existing big Africa thread but this wretched conflict has been going on for what, over 20 years? So it surely deserves its own (with the qualifier that this has primarily been occuring in Eastern DR Congo (Kivu region specifically), bordering Uganda/Rwanda/Burundi)



That's the problem, DR Congo absolutely does not have the military or logistical capability to force matters in the eastern part of the country, which is as distinct a place from Kinshasa (DR Congo's capital) as Portugal is from Ukraine. It is infuriating how much of a failed state it is compared to neighboring states with fewer resources



How much time do you have?

Abbreviated summary: So in the latter days of Mobutu's reign and looting of DR Congo, the Rwandan genocide happened (1994). Eventually Kagame and his Tutsi forces were able to invade Rwanda and stop the genocide, but the Hutu genocidiares and a ton of refugees fled Rwanda across the border into DR Congo's east, and the genocidiares (not exactly apologetic) continued to pose a threat to Rwanda and Kagame. Plus, they got support from Mobutu. Rwandan forces started to move across the border to confront the genocidiares and force the refugees to move back to Rwanda, but they also allied with some of Mobutu's Congolese adversaries and just kept pushing deeper and deeper into DR Congo until they reached Kinshasa, forcing the fall of Mobutu.

Then Rwanda discovered that Eastern Congo was full of mineral resources, so why not maintain a sphere of influence over the region next to it and take a slice of the mining profits, and ensure that there remains a buffer between Rwanda and DR Congo?

So with DR Congo unable to exert any power in Eastern Congo, a power vacuum formed, filled by local groups vying for control of the resources, and the civilians are unfortunately caught between the violence. And this has been going on for over 20 years. That's the backdrop to current events

One of these groups is M23, and several organizations have linked them to Rwanda (equivalent would be Wagner to Russia). Officially, they claim they are protecting the interests of local Tutsi (the lines drawn in Berlin at that conference were arbitrary so you have native Tutsis in DR Congo as well) against another group (FDLR) comprised of Hutus including genocidiares from 1994 (yep still alive and thriving). Unofficially and realistically? They are a covert arm of Rwanda and Kagame specifically to maintain Rwanda's silent fiefdom in Eastern Congo.

In recent months they've been able to take over territory culminating in the fall of Goma.

I'm not sure what can be done about the situation. Yes, the US and others can force Rwanda (and Uganda) to stop meddling about in the region, however once they withdraw, there is going to be a power vacuum DR Congo is simply incapable of filling due to it being a failed state, and the alternative will just be local groups fighting each other for little more than the right to tax raw coltan loaded onto a dodgy plane going to Belarus, and it can't be emphasized enough how the civilians on ground are the real losers. sexual assault, disease, lost limbs and lives... It's hell.

I thank you as well. Much appreciated
 
I was going to post about this in the existing big Africa thread but this wretched conflict has been going on for what, over 20 years? So it surely deserves its own (with the qualifier that this has primarily been occuring in Eastern DR Congo (Kivu region specifically), bordering Uganda/Rwanda/Burundi)



That's the problem, DR Congo absolutely does not have the military or logistical capability to force matters in the eastern part of the country, which is as distinct a place from Kinshasa (DR Congo's capital) as Portugal is from Ukraine. It is infuriating how much of a failed state it is compared to neighboring states with fewer resources



How much time do you have?

Abbreviated summary: So in the latter days of Mobutu's reign and looting of DR Congo, the Rwandan genocide happened (1994). Eventually Kagame and his Tutsi forces were able to invade Rwanda and stop the genocide, but the Hutu genocidiares and a ton of refugees fled Rwanda across the border into DR Congo's east, and the genocidiares (not exactly apologetic) continued to pose a threat to Rwanda and Kagame. Plus, they got support from Mobutu. Rwandan forces started to move across the border to confront the genocidiares and force the refugees to move back to Rwanda, but they also allied with some of Mobutu's Congolese adversaries and just kept pushing deeper and deeper into DR Congo until they reached Kinshasa, forcing the fall of Mobutu.

Then Rwanda discovered that Eastern Congo was full of mineral resources, so why not maintain a sphere of influence over the region next to it and take a slice of the mining profits, and ensure that there remains a buffer between Rwanda and DR Congo?

So with DR Congo unable to exert any power in Eastern Congo, a power vacuum formed, filled by local groups vying for control of the resources, and the civilians are unfortunately caught between the violence. And this has been going on for over 20 years. That's the backdrop to current events

One of these groups is M23, and several organizations have linked them to Rwanda (equivalent would be Wagner to Russia). Officially, they claim they are protecting the interests of local Tutsi (the lines drawn in Berlin at that conference were arbitrary so you have native Tutsis in DR Congo as well) against another group (FDLR) comprised of Hutus including genocidiares from 1994 (yep still alive and thriving). Unofficially and realistically? They are a covert arm of Rwanda and Kagame specifically to maintain Rwanda's silent fiefdom in Eastern Congo.

In recent months they've been able to take over territory culminating in the fall of Goma.

I'm not sure what can be done about the situation. Yes, the US and others can force Rwanda (and Uganda) to stop meddling about in the region, however once they withdraw, there is going to be a power vacuum DR Congo is simply incapable of filling due to it being a failed state, and the alternative will just be local groups fighting each other for little more than the right to tax raw coltan loaded onto a dodgy plane going to Belarus, and it can't be emphasized enough how the civilians on ground are the real losers. sexual assault, disease, lost limbs and lives... It's hell.
Thanks for this.

One thing I do not understand though, how Rwanda is so powerful? Just 3 decades ago they had a massive civil war which culminated with the Rwandan Genocide where half a million of Tutsi were killed. I understand that Kagame eventually overthrow the Hutu government and made Rwanda a relatively stable country, but they are still tiny compared to their neighbors. How can they so effortlessly basically feck up Congo, and he threatens South Africa, countries with 10 times as many people and bigger economies?

This doesn’t look to me like an Israel situation where a tiny country overpowers its much bigger neighbors. Their economy seems pretty shit, they seem to score low on everything but somehow seem to be a regional power. On other words, what am I missing here?
 
I was going to post about this in the existing big Africa thread but this wretched conflict has been going on for what, over 20 years? So it surely deserves its own (with the qualifier that this has primarily been occuring in Eastern DR Congo (Kivu region specifically), bordering Uganda/Rwanda/Burundi)



That's the problem, DR Congo absolutely does not have the military or logistical capability to force matters in the eastern part of the country, which is as distinct a place from Kinshasa (DR Congo's capital) as Portugal is from Ukraine. It is infuriating how much of a failed state it is compared to neighboring states with fewer resources



How much time do you have?

Abbreviated summary: So in the latter days of Mobutu's reign and looting of DR Congo, the Rwandan genocide happened (1994). Eventually Kagame and his Tutsi forces were able to invade Rwanda and stop the genocide, but the Hutu genocidiares and a ton of refugees fled Rwanda across the border into DR Congo's east, and the genocidiares (not exactly apologetic) continued to pose a threat to Rwanda and Kagame. Plus, they got support from Mobutu. Rwandan forces started to move across the border to confront the genocidiares and force the refugees to move back to Rwanda, but they also allied with some of Mobutu's Congolese adversaries and just kept pushing deeper and deeper into DR Congo until they reached Kinshasa, forcing the fall of Mobutu.

Then Rwanda discovered that Eastern Congo was full of mineral resources, so why not maintain a sphere of influence over the region next to it and take a slice of the mining profits, and ensure that there remains a buffer between Rwanda and DR Congo?

So with DR Congo unable to exert any power in Eastern Congo, a power vacuum formed, filled by local groups vying for control of the resources, and the civilians are unfortunately caught between the violence. And this has been going on for over 20 years. That's the backdrop to current events

One of these groups is M23, and several organizations have linked them to Rwanda (equivalent would be Wagner to Russia). Officially, they claim they are protecting the interests of local Tutsi (the lines drawn in Berlin at that conference were arbitrary so you have native Tutsis in DR Congo as well) against another group (FDLR) comprised of Hutus including genocidiares from 1994 (yep still alive and thriving). Unofficially and realistically? They are a covert arm of Rwanda and Kagame specifically to maintain Rwanda's silent fiefdom in Eastern Congo.

In recent months they've been able to take over territory culminating in the fall of Goma.

I'm not sure what can be done about the situation. Yes, the US and others can force Rwanda (and Uganda) to stop meddling about in the region, however once they withdraw, there is going to be a power vacuum DR Congo is simply incapable of filling due to it being a failed state, and the alternative will just be local groups fighting each other for little more than the right to tax raw coltan loaded onto a dodgy plane going to Belarus, and it can't be emphasized enough how the civilians on ground are the real losers. sexual assault, disease, lost limbs and lives... It's hell.

Damn, the world is messed up. I didn't even know this was still happening.
 
Thanks for this.

One thing I do not understand though, how Rwanda is so powerful? Just 3 decades ago they had a massive civil war which culminated with the Rwandan Genocide where half a million of Tutsi were killed. I understand that Kagame eventually overthrow the Hutu government and made Rwanda a relatively stable country, but they are still tiny compared to their neighbors. How can they so effortlessly basically feck up Congo, and he threatens South Africa, countries with 10 times as many people and bigger economies?

This doesn’t look to me like an Israel situation where a tiny country overpowers its much bigger neighbors. Their economy seems pretty shit, they seem to score low on everything but somehow seem to be a regional power. On other words, what am I missing here?

Sorry I missed this...

Rwanda is a tiny country, however they're not really surrounded by enemies. They have no concern with Uganda or Burundi or Tanzania; their main concern is across the border with DR Congo. They have a very competent president/dictator who gets basic governance right (there's the suppression of dissent and all but most Rwandans accept the tradeoff for now). They have a stable business climate that attracts foreign investment and aid, which they can pour into their defense. Their armed forces leadership and ranks are constantly drilled, reminded daily about the genocide, and always alert against the threat posed by the genocidiares across the border in Congo. The army recently assisted Mozambique in fighting an insurgency in their northern region. So despite being small, the army is very competent in mobilizing force.

It cannot be emphasized enough how much of a failed state DR Congo is. You look at the size of the country, however there is absolutely zero state capacity to link the country's distant regions, train a competent military, maintain law and order far from the capital, tax resource extraction, or protect the borders.

Let's say you have a ton of (untrained and poorly equipped) troops in Kinshasa, the south west corner of the country. Unless you elect to fly them to Goma, which, good luck doing that with the rebels in control, you'd have to first fly them to Kisangani, then have them trek for hundreds of km through dense jungle and unpaved roads that look like this:

IMG1.JPG

DR Congo simply doesn't have the ability to do anything in the far flung regions of the country, which is why they also resort to funding militias or mercenaries that at least align with their strategic objectives. The country may as well be split into 3 distinct countries centered around Kinshasa, Kisangani and Lubumbashi. And this explains @VorZakone's latest post: if DR Congo's farce of a central government completely collapsed and chaos ensued, would anyone be surprised? THIS is the problem, and Rwanda taking advantage is a footnote here IMO.

South Africa is a more powerful and capable country however their ability to wage war far beyond their borders has degraded significantly since the end of Apartheid (their ability in this regard was designed strictly to counter majority rule governments in Southern Africa so it is only of recent that this void is a bad thing). The troops they have in the region are in a peacekeeping capacity and twitter catfight aside, they really have little say in how things in the region go.

Here is what I think will happen. The government loses all power. In the chaos that ensues, Rwanda indirectly through it's militias supported by the RDF, takes control of the eastern Kivu provinces, claiming it is doing so to bring peace to a region adjacent to it, keep the minerals flowing to our iPhones, and flush out any remaining genocidiares who still harbor a desire to finish what they started in 1994. And the conflict will end. It'll just cost DR Congo the loss of their Kivu region.

So it is similar to Israel. Minus the genocide/ethnic cleansing and apartheid of course.
 


It would be a war if there was a country to fight back. There simply isn't. What you would call the "armed forces" of DR Congo have given up Bukavu without a serious fight to M23 (and Rwanda by proxy). Uganda if they desired could simply capture DR Congo territory adjacent to them without much resistance either.

Meanwhile their useless president, Tshisekedi is in Europe for God knows why. Probably thinks sanctions will lead Kagame to relinquish this advantage. Will it feck