Donald Trump - GUILTY!

gaffs said:
No. We know that Cohen stole from Trump because Trumps defence team did their research and found that Cohen billed Trump $50k for serviced paid to a polling company. He skimmed $30k off that and only paid them $20k. Double that $30k to $60k to cover taxes (which i know is very shady, as it should have been an expense, not a payment, which is what they were coving up).

Trump's team uncovered this and Cohen fessed up under cross examination.

Had Cohen admitted to this under direct examination, you may have a point. And why the prosecution did not pick up on this first, i do not know. The point of direct examination with a witness like Cohen is to get in front of the issues before the prosecution has their shot.

Plus, it is pertinent as this payment (and over charging / theft ) was part of the larger $400k+ that Cohen billed Trump for as part of the Stormy Daniels payment.

Grand larceny, is infact a more serious crime that what Trump is charged with, which is felony-level falsifying business records.

Trump is guilty as hell, but my point is that if you have a witness, who is caught stealing from his boss, albeit as part of another scheme, it further damages his legitimacy in the eyes of jurors.
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That's not what I heard. I am relying on a report by Glenn Kirschner who runs the Justice Matters Pod.
Kirschner also highlighted the fact that Trump's Attorneys didn't ask Cohen one question about a meet Cohen had testified about between he and Trump in the Oval Office in 2017 during which the reimbursement scheme was worked out.
I don't know if the prosecution knew about Cohen's theft from Trump org or not. By the by the Trump Org itself was found guilty of fraud.So I'm not sure how damaged Cohen was in the eyes of the jury? A crook stealing from another crook?
Anyway we shall find out soon enough.
 
I think you would be very lucky to prove theft or fraud to a criminal standard. In effect he passed on less of the dodgy payment that was at first thought. More like keeping a margin than fraud. And not exactly for a detailed invoiced service.

No matter what I'd be surprised if this changes anyone's opinion of Cohen as they already knew he is a scumbag. I'd also be surprised if this changed any juror's mind about trump's guilt. Which doesn't mean that he will be convicted of course.
 
Wibble said:
I think you would be very lucky to prove theft or fraud to a criminal standard. In effect he passed on less of the dodgy payment that was at first thought. More like keeping a margin than fraud. And not exactly for a detailed invoiced service.

No matter what I'd be surprised if this changes anyone's opinion of Cohen as they already knew he is a scumbag. I'd also be surprised if this changed any juror's mind about trump's guilt. Which doesn't mean that he will be convicted of course.
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What was the payment for? A dodgy Tech company who were manipulating the polls wasn't it? More Trump scamming.
 
calodo2003 said:
Could get the verdict as early as tomorrow…

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Well according to his own lawyers, the case couldn't have been made seven years ago as the POTUS can't be prosecuted for anything unless he's impeached in the Senate first. Just sayin'.
 
hasanejaz88 said:
Atleast he's being honest, appreciate that in a Presidential candidate.
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So, the verdict is today?

I'll be surprised if he gets more than a fine.
 
Morty_ said:
So, the verdict is today?

I'll be surprised if he gets more than a fine.
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Sentencing is up to the judge I think, so if he's found guilty I would guess it's more than that. Maybe suspended sentence and probation???? I do doubt he gets jail time.
 
I don't think there's a timeline on the deliberations. If something comes back today it's clearly an 'easy' decision whichever way it goes. I also swear they weren't doing trial stuff on Wednesdays, but maybe that doesn't include jury deliberations.

Reminder for when things come through: there are 34 unique charges. Each will have an individual verdict of guilty, not-guilty or unable to reach a verdict. It feels to me somewhat likely that there will be a split - he'll be guilty on some, not on others, and that the media will in no way whatsoever be able to communicate to the masses.

So MAGA will say he was cleared, and MSNBC will say he was found guilty on some counts.

It's such a mess.
 
Beachryan said:
I don't think there's a timeline on the deliberations. If something comes back today it's clearly an 'easy' decision whichever way it goes. I also swear they weren't doing trial stuff on Wednesdays, but maybe that doesn't include jury deliberations.

Reminder for when things come through: there are 34 unique charges. Each will have an individual verdict of guilty, not-guilty or unable to reach a verdict. It feels to me somewhat likely that there will be a split - he'll be guilty on some, not on others, and that the media will in no way whatsoever be able to communicate to the masses.

So MAGA will say he was cleared, and MSNBC will say he was found guilty on some counts.

It's such a mess.
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The Wednesday off thing was for the trial itself, not for deliberations. The way things are going, they're probably going to have a verdict before the end of the week, possibly sooner.
 
WI_Red said:
Sentencing is up to the judge I think, so if he's found guilty I would guess it's more than that. Maybe suspended sentence and probation???? I do doubt he gets jail time.
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Each of the 34 felony counts could result in up to four years in prison. If he's guilty, and given his age, the judge could do whatever he wants within those parameters.
 
Raoul said:
Each of the 34 felony counts could result in up to four years in prison. If he's guilty, and given his age, the judge could do whatever he wants within those parameters.
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If found guilty, does the judge have to immediately do the sentencing or can he leave it for another date? I kmow this can happen just not sure if it's applicable/allowable here

If Trump is found guilty and the sentencing is delayed, then what he gets might depend on his reaction, knowing how Trump usualy takes these things he'll be in the media or at rallies trashing/threatening the judge, the jury and everyone else involved, if that's what happens then he'll get jail time IMO
 
Red in STL said:
If found guilty, does the judge have to immediately do the sentencing or can he leave it for another date? I kmow this can happen just not sure if it's applicable/allowable here

If Trump is found guilty and the sentencing is delayed, then what he gets might depend on his reaction, knowing how Trump usualy takes these things he'll be in the media or at rallies trashing/threatening the judge, the jury and everyone else involved, if that's what happens then he'll get jail time IMO
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There would be a separate sentencing hearing at a later date. Also, anything short of an acquittal this week would result in Trump immediately appealing which itself would take months. If he's found guilty this week, he would have to go through the rest of the campaign with the stain of being a convicted criminal.
 
Raoul said:
There would be a separate sentencing hearing at a later date. Also, anything short of an acquittal this week would result in Trump immediately appealing which itself would take months. If he's found guilty this week, he would have to go through the rest of the campaign with the stain of being a convicted criminal.
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And supposedly, he will supposedly collapse in the polls if found convicted of something.

I still very much doubt that.
 
Morty_ said:
And supposedly, he will supposedly collapse in the polls if found convicted of something.

I still very much doubt that.
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A conviction would allow Biden's campaign to run adds calling him a convicted felon, and he can call him that in the debates as well. Trump might be teflon, but that's a bad label no matter what. I do think that will probably influence some low information voters, but it definitely won't be a collapse in the polls.
 
Morty_ said:
I think he will lose precisely zero votes, but hopefully i'm wrong on this.
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That's not what the polling says, so you would indeed likely be wrong. His base would stick with him, but elections are won and lost by independents, which is where most of the voters are. Of course Trump could still win irrespective of the case, simply because people see Biden as too old and unable to lower the cost of food and housing back to where they were during Trump's first term.
 
Mike Smalling said:
A conviction would allow Biden's campaign to run adds calling him a convicted felon, and he can call him that in the debates as well. Trump might be teflon, but that's a bad label no matter what. I do think that will probably influence some low information voters, but it definitely won't be a collapse in the polls.
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Why would that matter? If you are still with Trump, after all this time, a conviction isn't going to change anything, they will just scream "deep state!" and so on.

There is no reason why this should be the red line for them.
 
Raoul said:
That's not what the polling says, so you would indeed likely be wrong. His base would stick with him, but elections are won and lost by independents, which is where most of the voters are. Of course Trump could still win irrespective of the case, simply because people see Biden as too old and unable to lower the cost of food and housing back to where they were during Trump's first term.
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Yeah, well, Trump is doing awful with independents already, in actual election results(primaries), i don't believe he is nearly as popular with independents as polling shows.

I don't think there are many more voters he can realistically lose at this point, Trump is going to get way fewer voters in 24 than in 20, the reason this is close is because Biden also has lost many voters.
 
Morty_ said:
Why would that matter? If you are still with Trump, after all this time, a conviction isn't going to change anything, they will just scream "deep state!" and so on.

There is no reason why this should be the red line for them.
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I think you might be misunderstanding my post. I’m not saying this would move a single MAGA voter. I’m saying that people who don’t follow politics closely, and might not even know much about his cases might hear the “convicted felon” label and be turned off.

The MAGA people are only the most visible part of Trumps voter base. He needs a lot of normal people as well. A conviction will move some of these.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I think you might be misunderstanding my post. I’m not saying this would move a single MAGA voter. I’m saying that people who don’t follow politics closely, and might not even know much about his cases might hear the “convicted felon” label and be turned off.

The MAGA people are only the most visible part of Trumps voter base. He needs a lot of normal people as well. A conviction will move some of these.
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Correct. The GOP base is much more galvanized around MAGA, whereas the Dems are more of an uncomfortable coalition between moderate/centrists and progressives, which gives the advantage to Republicans. Even so, both are slightly outnumbered by independents, which is not good news for Trump, particularly in light of the fact that Haley is still getting double digits despite having dropped out months ago.

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Morty_ said:
Why would that matter? If you are still with Trump, after all this time, a conviction isn't going to change anything, they will just scream "deep state!" and so on.

There is no reason why this should be the red line for them.
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The ones who are still Trump aren't enough to win, as @Raoul says he needs independents to win and there have been plenty of polls that show that there are many people who won't vote for him if he's a convicted felon, Trump loses 2-3% of independents he's toast
 
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