Should there be an xG Premier League trophy?

Moby

Dick
Joined
May 20, 2011
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Barcelona, Catalunya
In addition to the regular one, with performance stats being at the forefront of football analysis as of now? Managers and clubs are already aware of fans and media constantly assessing them through expected goals data, but with an actual trophy provided to the team that tops the xG PL table, it would provide a lot of teams an added incentive to play more attacking and creative football.

It gives us the true representation of the league.

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Tarrou said:
wait you're serious?
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In addition to the current one, sure. I've taken xG as the current metric but people can feel free to add more to that. I don't mind teams like Brighton under Potter getting rewarded for being well coached and playing a creative and attacking brand of football.
 
Nah. It would probably just be Man City or whoever won the league anyway...

Also what's wrong with performing way better than your xG? You seem to be suggesting this is a bad thing. Beating your xG is often a sign you scored incredible goals. All the best screamers in PL history would be low xG. If anything it would further encourage less risky play because it wouldn't add to xG.

Rewarding a team for being worse than their xG is like rewarding someone for being bad at finishing. Participation trophy.
 
Moby said:
In addition to the current one, sure. I've taken xG as the current metric but people can feel free to add more to that. I don't mind teams like Brighton under Potter getting rewarded for being well coached and playing a creative and attacking brand of football.
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they get rewarded by scoring more goals though
 
No but let's hope our performances improve because that overperformance is unsustainable.
 
If you wanted to encourage attacking play then you'd give a trophy for ACTUAL GOALS.
 
Yeah and a moral trophy and a most 3 yards sideway passing trophy, etc.
 
xG is not even consistent yet. Different sources place different results, and it's models are ever evolving at the moment
 
We really are turning to the new liverpool, xg trophy, what next one of those stupid made up points table like rawk used to do when they couldn't win actual trophies.
 
No it shouldn't but I do like the XG/XP metrics.

It can't rewrite results but it's an excellent foreshadower. If you look at the PL tables since they started doing it (14/15 season) it forecasted off the top of my head Emery's decline at Arsenal, Pochettino's Spurs collapsing, that Newcastle were on a one way ticket to relegation had they kept Bruce, City running away with the league in 17/18, Jose's third season struggle at United.
 
Dancfc said:
No it shouldn't but I do like the XG/XP metrics.

It can't rewrite results but it's an excellent foreshadower. If you look at the PL tables since they started doing it (14/15 season) it forecasted off the top of my head Emery's decline at Arsenal, Pochettino's Spurs collapsing, that Newcastle were on a one way ticket to relegation had they kept Bruce, City running away with the league in 17/18, Jose's third season struggle at United.
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All of these things were patently obvious from the eye test and simple context.
 
phelans shorts said:
All of these things were patently obvious from the eye test and simple context.
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Maybe, but people treated me like a lunatic when I predicted us to finish ahead of Arsenal and Spurs in 19/20 and many people were defending Steve Bruce right up until the moment he was sacked.
 
Moby said:
In addition to the current one, sure. I've taken xG as the current metric but people can feel free to add more to that. I don't mind teams like Brighton under Potter getting rewarded for being well coached and playing a creative and attacking brand of football.
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A punching above your weight trophy. You can just sort teams by wage budget and award it to the most delta between wage budget ranking and actual ranking.
 
avgp_1 said:
xG is not even consistent yet. Different sources place different results, and it's models are ever evolving at the moment
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Obviously awarding a trophy based on xG is ridiculous but I don't think multiple different xG models are a problem.

Let there be a free for all and have the one true xG win. Lot of value in these models despite scope for improvement.
 
Dancfc said:
Maybe, but people treated me like a lunatic when I predicted us to finish ahead of Arsenal and Spurs in 19/20 and many people were defending Steve Bruce right up until the moment he was sacked.
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As someone who vehemently defended Steve Bruce let me tell you this, I just revel in angry Geordies.

Arsenal at that point were a joke, and people get blinded by stuff like Spurs getting to the CL final. That side were always flawed despite having the odd big performance in them, they were just so unbalanced and reliant on Eric Dier who… yeah.
 
xG is a useful stat but it's not the true arbiter of how creative, attacking, or "good" a team is. Awarding a trophy for it would just promote the idea that having a high xG is an achievement in and of itself. It's like when people argue that their team should've won a match because they had more possession.

Teams play defensively because they believe it is what will give them the biggest chance of success, I doubt they'll throw their philosophy out of the window for the chance of winning an xG trophy.
 
No, an expected goal is not a goal. Actually scoring the expected goal is what makes it a goal. Football isnt played on paper, let's not hand out trophies for it.
 
Sure thing, trophy should be up there with trophies for the player that farts the loudest or the manager that knew how to pick his nose really deep.

Seriously though, no it shouldn’t, don’t be a nerd.
 
Teja said:
Obviously awarding a trophy based on xG is ridiculous but I don't think multiple different xG models are a problem.

Let there be a free for all and have the one true xG win. Lot of value in these models despite scope for improvement.
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Ofcourse there is lots of value but just don't think there is any absolute model for xG to start giving awards away. Just like points system or goals scored this needs to be definite
 
I saw the thread title and thought, "Hehe, well done Moby. This is a promising bit of satire."

I'm still going to pretend it is, because the alternative is too horrifying to comprehend.
 
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