Realistically with this current squad and Ronaldo either out or not interested, 6th or 7th however we could make 2 game changing transfers before August 31st. So I’m splitting the PL into six phases because of the Mid season World Cup and the new 5 Subs rule which will have significant effect on the PL final positions
Phase 1 - Six PL games up to 4th sept, Baptism of fire I'm afraid for ETH with 8 points, Record 2 W, 2 D, 2L,
Phase 2 - Eight PL games up to 30th Oct plus Europa League, Points 16 record of W5 D1 L2, couple of late transfers have an effect, squad settles and players are trying to nail form for World Cup however Thu Sunday football could have impact we should see Garnaucho and IQbal start to come through.
Phase 3 - 2 PL games before World Cup and 5 gruelling games after including away game to Arsenal and a Manchester Derby so Seven PL games W3 D2 L2, most of our players are not good enough to be in the later stages of the World Cup so I don’t expect to much drop off as ETH starts to get a tune plus I think we will make another stellar signing in January.
Phase 4 - Six PL games where we might find some form from February until middle of March W4 D1 L1 but we will lose to Liverpool again
Phase 5 - Five PL games from end of March through Easter, decent run of games W3 D1 L1 but difficult away games to Newcastle, Brighton and home game with Chelsea.
Final Phase 6 - We have a reasonable finish to the season but depends how deep we went in Europa League and Domestic Cups, could be a shoot out with Spurs on the 32nd game of the season, I’m going with a draw and final finish W3 D2 L1
So my prediction is P38 W20 D9 L9 Points 69 , This could be 4th but more likely 5th or 6th dependent on whether Arsenal and Spurs regress or not, looking at their recent signings I highly doubt that.
The only caveat is ETH does have a 63/64% managerial win rate and if he achieves that and adds 2 marquee signings before sept 1st and another one in January to help him achieve that then the following is also possible but highly unlikely ; P38 W24 D6 L8 Points 78 which is safely 3rd to 4th place.