What sort of attackers do we have? A look at stats

justsomebloke

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Since various issues with this keep coming up in different discussions, I sat down last evening and tried to compile the most useful stats from the Fbref scouting reports. All values/90, and referring to Premier League games 2022/23 season.

Figures in bold denote cases where the player is in the top 15 percentiles - ie, elite PL level.
Figures in italics denote cases where the player is below the 50 percentile - ie, sub-average PL level.
As far as percentiles go, Martial's is compared to strikers, the others to wingers/att mids.


STATRashfordGarnachoSanchoAntonyMartial
NpxG0.450.320.230.320.62SHOOTING
xAG0.110.200.170.110.16AND SCORING
Shots2.983.181.063.492.22
Goals/shot0.190.130.290.080.20
Prog carries2.494.973.864.611.33ON THE
Prog carrying dist69.59131.32106.29126.5846.85BALL
Carries into final1/31.514.371.673.101.33
Carries into pen area1.583.972.201.520.59
Take-ons att4.047.354.173.822.07
Sucessful take-ons1.401.991.741.191.03
Take-on success%34.62741.831.050.0
Prog passes2.340.994.093.562.96PASSING
Prog passes rec7.3213.518.948.246.06
Passes attempted24.9728.4141.0640.5928.23
Pass completion%75.480.483.678.782.7
Key Passes0.870.402.121.051.03
Passes into final 1/31.060.201.061.381.48
Passes into PA1.360.202.201.581.03
Crosses into PA0.0800.080.070
SCA2.642.784.473.492.22
GCA0.380.990.610.260.74
Touches37.0847.0950.9853.3037.09POSSESSION
Touches att 1/320.7830.627.530.1821.28
Touches Pen Area5.628.345.233.824.29
Miscontrols2.533.972.651.842.51
dispossessed1.402.381.060.531.48
Ball recoveries3.243.975.764.941.48DEFENSIVE
Tkl+Int0.941.391.291.840.30
Aerials won0.720.400.150.200.89AERIAL


SHOOTING AND SCORING: All of our attackers except Sancho create or get a high volume of scoring chances (NpxG) and have an elite level of shot volume and/or shot conversion. Garnacho and Antony shoots often but converts rarely (especially Antony), Sancho and Martial shoot rarely but convert often. Rashford is the only player to both shoot often and convert often, unsurprisingly. Sancho’s shot volume is extremely low (and his high conversion rate must obviously be seen in this light). But this is not a group who is adept at setting up goals (XaG)! None of our attackers have elite levels for this, and two (Rashford and Antony) are below average. More on this under passing and possession.

ON THE BALL: Short story here: We have two players who are good at this/do it a lot (Garnacho and Antony), and they are largely good at the same things. The other three are not generally good/strongly present in this part of the game, statistically speaking. For progressive carries in general, Garnacho and Antony are both great, while Martial and Rashford do little of it and Sancho is ordinary. The same two players are very involved in carrying the ball into the attacking 1/3, especially Garnacho, while Rashford and Sancho do this rarely, for players in their position. It’s a slightly different picture for carries into the penalty area, where Sancho and Garnacho stand out, Antony here not as much. For take-ons, the only thing that stands out as top level here is how frequently Garnacho attempts it. As a whole, it doesn’t look like a very successful group in this part of the game. The volume of successful take-ons is not in elite territory for any of the players. Indeed, in terms of the % of attempted take-ons that are successful, they are all sub-average, except Martial, but he is also the only one who makes few attempts. To an extent you can probably expect many attempts to mean a lower rate of success, but also if you go by the number of successful take-ons (which is the net output offensively so to speak), it’s hard to see these as good numbers.

PASSING: Here our forwards fall fairly neatly into two groups: Those who have some elite-level quality in this area (Sancho and Martial), and those who don’t ( Rashford, Antony, Garnacho).

For progressing the ball through passing in general, only Martial has a high level of output relative to his position. Rashford and Garnacho have sub-average output here, which of course reflect their deployment, playing usually off the defenders shoulder. Clearly, Uniteds attackers don’t play a large role in passing the ball up the pitch. They also don’t play a big role in passing the ball into the attacking 1/3 (all sub-average except Martial). For passes into the penalty area, it is again Sancho who stands out a mile, while Garnacho basically manages to make one pass into the PA once every five 90 minutes. Crossing into the penalty area is basically something our attackers don’t do, which presumably is by design.

You’d think then that they’d be all the more involved in receiving it, but actually that’s only the case with Garnacho, who is the only player with elite levels here. Otherwise, as a group they attempt few passes (especially Rashford and Garnacho) but are relatively accurate with the ones they make (Sancho and Martial elite level, no one sub-average). Sancho stands out for his ability to make key passes, which no one else does well (Rashford, Garnacho and Antony all sub-average in this respect).

I’m a little unsure how to read SCA (shot-creating actions) and GCA (Goal-creating actions). Except to say Sancho is the one who stands out positively.

Overall conclusion: Be very, very glad we have Bruno (and Eriksen).

POSSESSION: This also is an area where the group doesn’t appear especially strong. They are not very heavily involved in possession generally (Touches), especially not Rashford and Martial, but the relative involvement (ie, compared to other players in their position) increases in the attacking 1/3 and even more in the PA. Clearly, this reflects Uniteds style of play: Compared to others, our attackers have the ball a lot in the oppo penalty area, less in the attacking third as a whole and unusually little elsewhere on the pitch.

But here there are striking contrasts between indivdual players. Rashford is the most extreme – huge presence on the ball in the box, very little elsewhere. Garnacho has the strongest possession imprint, huge in the box and the attacking third, ordinary elsewhere. Antony has a big possession presence in the attacking third but ordinary further back and in the penalty area, Sancho is ordinary everywhere and Martial is weakly involved both in the penalty area and in the defensive 2/3. Miscontrols is not a astrong area, with Rashford, Garnacho and Sancho all being sub-average in this, and no one very good. Dispossession is mixed – It happens rarely to Sancho and Antony, but frequently to Garnacho (as you’d expect, given his style).

DEFENSIVE: Not great, to say the least. Again, this is probably more a reflection of style than of individual qualities, but Tackles + Interceptions is poor across the group, while the volume of ball recoveries is ordinary to poor. AERIAL IMPACT is also poor across the group, except to an extent Rashford.


The overall impression that emerges is that of a group of attackers who are employed in an aggressive and direct manner, with perhaps an unusually strong emphasis on the final phase attacks, and on carrying the ball rather than passing it creatively. They contribute relatively little in other aspects and phases of the game. The profile underlines I think how reliant we are on the midfield for both the build-up and for creative passing – and on the full-backs for any kind of crossing. Stylistically, Rashford and Garnacho especially, but also Antony come over as a fairly similar type of player (which you don’t need stats to tell you), while Martial and particularly Sancho bring a quite different sort of game, with other strengths and weaknesses.
 
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Excellent post but be prepared for the "all stats are bollocks" brigade.

It kinda supports one of my pet theories (of course I'm looking for validation of my ideas): that while Sancho has been an underwhelming disappointment, he's nowhere near as bad as the Caf makes him out to be. The problem is that he's good at things that the Caf holds in great disdain, most notably short passing and keeping possession. United fans want all wingers to be explosive direct crossers and trying to play a short passing game around the box is very much frowned upon.

The profile of our attackers is another reason why our ball retention sucks, as if we didn't have enough reasons.
 
Nice thread.

Garnacho’s progressive passes received is crazy. As a winger he’s so sure of his first touch and getting past his man that he stays so wide and high up the field. He’s actually in the 97th percentile for this in the PL.
 
Excellent post but be prepared for the "all stats are bollocks" brigade.

It kinda supports one of my pet theories (of course I'm looking for validation of my ideas): that while Sancho has been an underwhelming disappointment, he's nowhere near as bad as the Caf makes him out to be. The problem is that he's good at things that the Caf holds in great disdain, most notably short passing and keeping possession. United fans want all wingers to be explosive direct crossers and trying to play a short passing game around the box is very much frowned upon.

The profile of our attackers is another reason why our ball retention sucks, as if we didn't have enough reasons.
I don't think those assets are frowned upon at least they are not by me.
I just want 100% output and taking on and getting around his marker and getting dangerous balls into the box added to his existing arsenal.
 
Excellent post but be prepared for the "all stats are bollocks" brigade.

It kinda supports one of my pet theories (of course I'm looking for validation of my ideas): that while Sancho has been an underwhelming disappointment, he's nowhere near as bad as the Caf makes him out to be. The problem is that he's good at things that the Caf holds in great disdain, most notably short passing and keeping possession. United fans want all wingers to be explosive direct crossers and trying to play a short passing game around the box is very much frowned upon.

The profile of our attackers is another reason why our ball retention sucks, as if we didn't have enough reasons.

Yep, yep and yep.

Anti-staters should find solace in how this mostly validates eye-test impressions (and should also consider the added value that comes from the depth and specificity stats add to that. As well as the few cases where they describe something important we probably don't catch with the eye-test.). Not that I'm expecting that.
 
Nice thread.

Garnacho’s progressive passes received is crazy. As a winger he’s so sure of his first touch and getting past his man that he stays so wide and high up the field. He’s actually in the 97th percentile for this in the PL.

Yes, although his confidence is misplaced - his first touch is not good (judging from his very high level of miscontrols), and he actually rarely gets past his man (about once in four attempts). It's just he tries so often that the results come anyway. :)
 
What does this tell us about the profile of striker we should be looking for? Considering our left and right wingers will obviously be Rashford and Antony
 
I don't think those assets are frowned upon at least they are not by me.
I just want 100% output and taking on and getting around his marker and getting dangerous balls into the box added to his existing arsenal.

Getting dangerous balls into the box is actually something he already does at an elite level (see "Passes into PA" and "Key Passes", both of which are top 15 percentiles in the PL). For take-ons he's not worse than anyone else on this team, at least. Not sure what you want 100% output of, but that doesn't sound entirely reasonable to me. :)
 
What does this tell us about the profipe of striker we should be looking for? Considering our left and right wingers will obviously be Rashford and Antony

Very good question. Does this point towards another direct, receiving-end power finisher like Osimhen? Not prejudging the answer, but it's not hard to think there's more of a Harry Kane-shaped hole in this picture.
 
The only stat we need to see is that we have scored 46 goals in 30 premier games. Clearly nowhere near good enough.
 
The only stat we need to see is that we have scored 46 goals in 30 premier games. Clearly nowhere near good enough.

You don't think sensible follow-on questions would then be "Why haven't we scored more?", or "How well are we doing the things that leads to goals?" or "What are the problems we need to fix"? For all of which stats are pretty useful, you know.
 
with these stats LVG would have loved Sancho, a bit risk averse but a tidy passer and statwise efficient with shots.
 
I see why we brought in Weghorst and also why we are keeping tracks on Hojlund. We need someone who is tall and can press.

Hopefully with an eye for goal as a bonus.
 
Arsenal and City have scored well over 70 league goals so far. We have 46 in a season that Rashford has hit a scoring streak.
That says a lot about our attackers.
 
How do our attackers compare specifically with the other 'top' clubs? So by that I mean City, Arsenal, Liverpool and possibly Tottenham & Newcastle?

Someone's attackers have to occupy the top percentiles where ours don't.
 
Someone's attackers have to occupy the top percentiles where ours don't.

Well, the reason I ask is that I am interested to see how the stats compare with players in equivalent positions at equivalent clubs and how they are affected by playing style and/or how opponents typically set-up against a team.
 
Does this present details about the profiles of our forwards. Yes.
However it justifies noone. Sancho has not been good and has been working on a much smaller sample than the rest of our forwards.
In general, this has easily been the worst part of the team this season and will require the most surgery out of all positions.
Amad might return, a striker will be signed, Pellistri and Garnacho will grow. So I do expect an upturn.
However, consistently poor and passive performances should not be tolerated by us.
I don't think either Sancho or Martial should have a place in this squad next season. Sancho hasn't been good, despite the difference in profile. His influence is low, his work rate is low and he can't be depended upon. When you consider his full cost, it's not worth it.
Martial has been decent. However the truth is, he's not our starting 9 of the future. His fitness has consistently been poor in his time here, so he rarely plays. His form when he does play can ebb and flow. In addition, he's not much of a striker. His shooting or predatory abilities are at the level that a no.9 playing for United should be. If he was good off the ball, he would most definitely have been a wide player. Selling him to an Italian club would benefit both parties. He feels like a striker that would work best in a two forward system, where he has space to drive. I think teams like Juventus and Inter would suit him well. He costs too much and isn't reliable enough to put in such an important position. I believe, we would have been a much stronger outfit this season with a consistently fit striker, as our defence and midfield were actually really strong this year. Our attack let us down aside from Rashford.
Antony is clearly growing and getting more tuned with the league. He is getting more confident and has always provided effort. I think he is one player who does not know the type of player he is yet, but he has the skillset for this to be determined with quality.
 
I dream of the days when we had FOUR top strikers: Cole, Yorke, Sheringham and Solskjaer.
 
You don't think sensible follow-on questions would then be "Why haven't we scored more?", or "How well are we doing the things that leads to goals?" or "What are the problems we need to fix"? For all of which stats are pretty useful, you know.
We havent had a top striker who can stay fit for ages. The long hit and hope balls and the slow progress through the ranks when we do try and play impede our goal scoring. When we get a chance we usually feck up, and struggle to score more than one most games, whether this is a coaching problem, or the players not good enough is for the manager to fix.
 
We havent had a top striker who can stay fit for ages. The long hit and hope balls and the slow progress through the ranks when we do try and play impede our goal scoring. When we get a chance we usually feck up, and struggle to score more than one most games, whether this is a coaching problem, or the players not good enough is for the manager to fix.

I'm not sure there's an explanation for that in the above stats, which really aren't that bad, on the whole. But a couple of other things do stand out. One is that we've basically had a black hole at the striker position for nearly half our PL games this season. Ronaldo and Weghorst has combined for just over 13 90s, and have provided between them one single goal. When you look at successful strikers with significant playing time for top clubs, it's a fairly consistent statistical profile for things like goals/90, NpXg, XaG etc - there's a certain range those players are generally within. Martial is in that range, but Weghorst and Ronaldo are so far out of it it's scary. The other thing is we've badly underscored our xG, by more than 7 goals (in addition to having played for so long with strikers who've contributed so little probably having lowered our xG a good deal). That says we haven't been clinical in our finishing, or we've been unlucky, or both - but in either case, it emphasises how we're using the chances rather than how good we are at creating them.
 
Well, the reason I ask is that I am interested to see how the stats compare with players in equivalent positions at equivalent clubs and how they are affected by playing style and/or how opponents typically set-up against a team.

That is a good question.

Below, I added the stats for two top wide attackers who's having very good seasons for top teams who play a more possession-oriented style (Riyad Mahrez and Bukayo Saka), and one for the best wide attacker I could find plating for the best other team available who also play a more direct style offensively (Dejan Kulusevski).

I think the results underline a few things. One, as you imply, that playing style matters. Saka and Mahrez both have a much more extensive involvement on the ball than our attackers do. Unlike Kulusevski, who's strong areas seems to mesh well with how Tottenham plays. United's attacking style is direct, this will in itself tend to drive down things like touches and passing volume for attackers.

Another is that Saka and Mahrez, even if you account for that factor, probably come across as more well-rounded - they have fewer weak areas and more strong areas than any of our players.

A third is that there are some stats where maybe it looks like low scores are more or less inherent to the role of being a spearheading wide attacker on a good team. Take-on success rate for example, where only Kulusevski combines many attempts with a high rate of success. Also passes into attacking 1/3, Tkl + Int and aerials won, for reasons that are easy to picture. Also, it's probably notable that Mahrez is the only one with good values for passing volume, miscontrols and touches, which obviously reflects the team he's playing for and it's style.

STATRashfordGarnachoSanchoAntonyMartialKulusevskiMahrezSaka
NpxG0.450.320.230.320.620.110.310.27
xAG0.110.200.170.110.160.200.340.26
Shots2.983.181.063.492.221.862.432.40
Goals/shot0.190.130.290.080.200.050.110.15
Prog carries2.494.973.864.611.333.823.965.06
Prog carrying dist69.59131.32106.29126.5846.85110.35121.81131.31
Carries into final1/31.514.371.673.101.332.062.642.46
Carries into pen area1.583.972.201.520.592.112.152.33
Take-ons att4.047.354.173.822.074.923.544.63
Sucessful take-ons1.401.991.741.191.032.111.111.66
Take-on success%34.62741.831.050.042.931.436
Prog passes2.340.994.093.562.962.864.173.06
Prog passes rec7.3213.518.948.246.068.6912.4314.94
Passes attempted24.9728.4141.0640.5928.2332.8655.6341.34
Pass completion%75.480.483.678.782.77882.674
Key Passes0.870.402.121.051.032.012.432.30
Passes into final 1/31.060.201.061.381.480.652.011.53
Passes into PA1.360.202.201.581.031.561.941.90
Crosses into PA0.0800.080.0700.550.420.40
SCA2.642.784.473.492.224.175.424.73
GCA0.380.990.610.260.740.450.900.83
Touches37.0847.0950.9853.3037.0946.1866.2554.35
Touches att 1/320.7830.627.530.1821.2823.4238.9636.11
Touches Pen Area5.628.345.233.824.294.975.836.89
Miscontrols2.533.972.651.842.513.471.602.26
dispossessed1.402.381.060.531.482.160.901.60
Ball recoveries3.243.975.764.941.486.284.033.76
Tkl+Int0.941.391.291.840.302.311.462.06
Aerials won0.720.400.150.200.890.150.420.40
 
@justsomebloke can you add a column which represents something like league average for attackers?

I've no idea where that can be found, or if it exists. But you can already see from the bold/italics marking if a player is above or below that average in each stat compared to players in the same position. I'm not sure if they're measured against all the 5 big leagues, or just the PL as far as the percentiles go.
 
I've no idea where that can be found, or if it exists. But you can already see from the bold/italics marking if a player is above or below that average in each stat compared to players in the same position. I'm not sure if they're measured against all the 5 big leagues, or just the PL as far as the percentiles go.
Right, I missed this information (was trying to work in the background, never a good idea!).
 
Be a bit fecking stupid if we had four top strikers for one position.
We need three top strikers, or at least two plus Rashford / he who shall not be named who can both fill in there. We want to challenge on all fronts with 60+ games a season, some games going to extra time, opportunity to change formation and play two up front if we are chasing a game, etc. Currently we have sicknote Martial and goal shy Weghorst. Bringing in Osimhen and Hojlund (for example) would solve a lot of our problems. We have a new manager, a new right winger who has just moved to the country, **** has been internally suspended all season, Ronaldo decided at the start of the season that he wanted to leave, Martial has been injured and Sancho has had "other issues". I think Antony will perform better next season. Sancho is a big talent, and I think he will come good. Garnacho and Pellestri will improve. Maybe **** will come back. Two new strikers and we suddenly look stacked up front.
 
It kinda supports one of my pet theories (of course I'm looking for validation of my ideas): that while Sancho has been an underwhelming disappointment, he's nowhere near as bad as the Caf makes him out to be. The problem is that he's good at things that the Caf holds in great disdain, most notably short passing and keeping possession. United fans want all wingers to be explosive direct crossers and trying to play a short passing game around the box is very much frowned upon.

The issue with Sancho is that he is one of our most expensive transfers in history. He is also on big wages.
Many expected him to come in and make immediate impact. In reality, he is been ordinary - not terrible, just average.
I'd expect a player from our youth system to wade in with similar numbers as Sancho and not carry the financial expense.
 
................Martial has been decent. However the truth is, he's not our starting 9 of the future. His fitness has consistently been poor in his time here, so he rarely plays. His form when he does play can ebb and flow. In addition, he's not much of a striker. His shooting or predatory abilities are at the level that a no.9 playing for United should be. If he was good off the ball, he would most definitely have been a wide player. Selling him to an Italian club would benefit both parties. He feels like a striker that would work best in a two forward system, where he has space to drive. I think teams like Juventus and Inter would suit him well. He costs too much and isn't reliable enough to put in such an important position. I believe, we would have been a much stronger outfit this season with a consistently fit striker, as our defence and midfield were actually really strong this year. Our attack let us down aside from Rashford.
Antony is clearly growing and getting more tuned with the league. He is getting more confident and has always provided effort. I think he is one player who does not know the type of player he is yet, but he has the skillset for this to be determined with quality.

Actually, there are no more than 11 players in the PL this year with at least five 90s who have scored more/90. And Marcus Rashford isn't one of them. So I don't think you can really make that particular criticism, not this season anyway. Of course, the previous two was abysmal (and injury-riddled), but the one before was at the same high level. Basically he's either a 0.15-0.20/90 player, or a 0.55-0.60 one. The latter is completely good enough.
 
The issue with Sancho is that he is one of our most expensive transfers in history. He is also on big wages.
Many expected him to come in and make immediate impact. In reality, he is been ordinary - not terrible, just average.
I'd expect a player from our youth system to wade in with similar numbers as Sancho and not carry the financial expense.
Yeah, absolutely. As I said, he's been underwhelming, especially considering the money spent. I just believe there would be more goodwill if he was a different type of player, like Garnacho.
 
Easier to visualize it if you turn it into a spider chart.

Problem with Sancho is he was elite at creation and progression through passing and carrying, and he was a good scorer... He was an entire attack sort of player. Here, he's very mid in tons of stats, with a few of those elite points remaining like basically just carry and pass into the penalty area, but with his xG and xAG really not following that.

Edit: Like this... took fbrefs data but tried to copy the stats that Statsbomb uses for their charts with just slight changes.
Garnacho

Antony

Sancho


To summarize:
Garnacho - class, but also typical of young players that he has a ton of turnovers, and his passing is non-existent as he is choosing to just dribble past every constantly. Shooting stats are excellent and not the worst shot selection. Massive potential. Works hard defensively. Looks like a young Vini Jr really especially when you compare his profile from his age 18/19 season.
Antony - gets a shit ton of shots off and has a very good xG. Has horrible shot selection. Very secure on the ball. Pretty much a 0 in creation but gets the ball into the box decently and carries it well.
Sancho - Only shoots when he has a clear chance. Elite at getting it into the box one way or another. Secure in possession. Not too involved outside of the box and isn't turning his actions in the box into xG or xAG

The numbers get fecky when players move between roles, or play on the wing but with the lead striker role basically like Rashford. So his numbers from the wing are among the very best with shooting stats and not a whole lot else, while comparing to forwards his shooting stats are good but not elite, but he is very good with passing and creation and all that... basically sometimes you have those in between players that you can't really compare properly.
 
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We have such low standards for our attacking players for their overall game. This leads to us getting players who are limited technically and do not add much creatively, this leads to us often just creating a lot of half chances rather than good ones.