This will probably be the first time in a lot of Utd fans lifetime where a new manager will be appointed at this stage of the season. So it'll be interesting to see how this works out, with the new manager bounce and all that.
I posted this in the other thread.
I looked at it like this when Ragnick was appointed. At that point I thought Utd needed to win around 18 or make around 54 points out of the remaining games to make top 4 a guarantee. He had 24 games and won 10, drew 7 and lost 7. Utd finished 13 points off 4th with 37 points gained. So I wasn't too far off.
There's 29 games left, that's 87 points to play for. Utd are on 11 points, 70-75 points usually guarantees top 4 or has done in most seasons.
So the reality is Utd need to pick up 60-64 points to make top 4, regardless of what anyone else does. That's essentially winning 20 out of 29 games. Anything less than 20 wins and you need more draws and less losses. While not impossible It's highly improbable.
If you look at the top 6 sides Utd have to play and how many points you might get in those games.
Arsenal x 2 = 1
Chelsea x 2 = 3
City x 2 = 0
Liverpool x 1 = 1
Villa x 1 = 3
Spurs x 1 = 3
W3, D2, L4
For arguments sake, lets say that's a rather optimistic outlook of 11 points from those 9 games. That leaves you needing around 50 points from the remaining 20 games. That's expecting 14/15/16 wins and a few draws.
Bournemouth x 2 = 4
Newcastle x 2 = 1
Brighton x 1 = 3
Forest x 2 = 3
Everton x 2 = 4
Leicester x 2 = 4
Wolves x 2 = 4
Palace x 1 = 3
Ipswich x 2 = 6
Southampton x 1 = 3
Brentford x 1 = 3
West Ham x 1 = 3
Fulham x 1 = 3
W13, D5, L2
I think that's 44 points from those + the 11 above & that'd be 55 points leaving Utd on 66 points. Overall even with this record W16, D7, L6. It's probably still not enough.
Finish as high in the league as possible and try to win the EL, FA Cup and League Cup. That should be the target for the season.