Transfer / development 'strategy' for top club.

Mark Pawelek

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There's a thread I began called "Do we really need a new CB, if so who?". Silly me. Every second poster wants an experienced journeyman centre-back. I wrote this in response but it needs its own thread.

I'm against this buy an experience player notion. Instead, I think United need a long-term player development strategy. This means stop buying journeymen unless they come here on a free. I don't think we need any experienced players (AKA journeymen) unless
  • they're top players like Zlatan / Mkhitaryan. My 'top' means in the best 50 worldwide.
  • or they come on a free, with an annually renewable contract.
Experienced players are only released by other clubs because of injury problems, leading to loss of form, or worse. I'd rather the whole transfer kitty was used to buy only top players. If we don't have enough top players play a youth prospect. It worked out well with Rashford, CBJ, TFM, passably for Jesse Lingard, and hopefully will too for Januzaj, Tuanzebe, Andreas and others. Very few players bought in the 3 years prior to this season (2013/2015) have been worthwhile buys (only Shaw and Martial really). Buying journeymen isn't worth it.

2 clear successes out of 17. Not good. Four of these signings were even supposed to be 'top', but weren't.

Signings in 3 years prior to 2016:
  • Wilfried Zaha
  • Marouane Fellaini
  • Guillermo Varela
  • Juan Mata
  • Víctor Valdés
  • Daley Blind
  • Luke Shaw
  • Marcos Rojo
  • Ander Herrera
  • Angel diMaria
  • Falcao
  • Sergio Romero
  • Matteo Darmian
  • Bastian Schweinsteiger
  • Morgan Schneiderlin
  • Memphis Depay
  • Anthony Martial
United should employ a 4-fold transfer/development strategy:
  • Top world prospects brought aged 16/17, to be developed. e.g. Pogba, A. Pereira, Januzaj
  • Top world prospects (aged 19/22). After showing top form elsewhere. e.g. Shaw, Martial, Memphis, Bailly
  • Top world players. e.g. Pogba, Zlatan, Mkhitaryan, diMaria
  • Frees: e.g. Romero, Valdés
No more journeymen unless they arrive on a free. You make one exception, then you make 2, before you know it there are 15 exceptions.
 
So, top all the way.

The problem is that you can't always know for sure who is going to be top, and who is not.

How would the OP class, say, the famed Vidic/Evra purchases back in January 2006?

Both were 25 (or rather about to turn 25 that year), none of them could be classed as world beaters (your Ibra/Pogba category), and they didn't fit either of your "top prospect" categories.

Neither of the latter categories seem particularly well suited for defenders, one could say, as they often take the most important leaps well past the age of 22.
 
Chesterlestreet said:
So, top all the way.

The problem is that you can't always know for sure who is going to be top, and who is not.

How would the OP class, say, the famed Vidic/Evra purchases back in January 2006?

Both were 25 (or rather about to turn 25 that year), none of them could be classed as world beaters (your Ibra/Pogba category), and they didn't fit either of your "top prospect" categories.

Neither of the latter categories seem particularly well suited for defenders, one could say, as they often take the most important leaps well past the age of 22.
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Every so often a player will surprise you like Mkhitaryan or Mahrez and break through (to top 50 / top 100) aged 25 or 26. That's unusual. You should not base your strategy on this happening. Most of the time players who make top 50 can be spotted earlier.

There are loads of players who are far less likely to make top 100 than others.
  • So buying a player aged 24+ who isn't already top 100 is not worth it. That's Rojo, Mata, Herrera, Young, Blind, Darmian. They were almost certainly never going to be "world class". Herrera debuted in La Liga in 2009. Bought by us in 2014. If he had what it took, our scouts should've have known within two years, by 2011.
  • Players in weaker leagues (e.g. Dutch) with 3 or so seasons who had not developed into top 5 in their league: Daley Blind. Never going to be a top 100 player.
  • Players like Nick Powell, and Zaha, coming from lower leagues with clear weaknesses in the game. No better than our youth players.
  • Those with big unfixable flaws in their game: Marouane Fellaini, Rojo.
  • Those who came out of nowhere (again with big flaws in their game): Bebe, Manucho.
Way too many punts being made here. Some are far less likely to make it than others. Some for more likely. So only go for the far more likely ones. I admit my method would probably have lost Vidic/Evra back in 2006. Every so often a long shot pays off for you. I'm not looking at this as gambling. Not after long shots. Treat it more like investing : you need to be certain that, say 50%, of your investments will make a ROI of 2× to 10×. Then you can forgive the other 50% that tank. In contrast all these punts at 20-1 might look good odds but they're not because they just waste your time, pad you squad out with mediocrity because only 1 in 20 actually pays off.
 
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That's exactly what I do on FIFA. Not sure it's all that easy in real life though, I do agree that we need a new CB, preferably experienced one indeed who can sort the shit out at the back (somebody like Vida or Rio, at the moment Smalling is not capable of doing it imo) or somebody with a huge potential indeed. Not shite like Stones though. Oh, and Jones and Rojo should be out of the door.
 
Kostur said:
That's exactly what I do on FM. Not sure it's all that easy in real life though, I do agree that we need a new CB, preferably experienced one indeed who can sort the shit out at the back (somebody like Vida or Rio, at the moment Smalling is not capable of doing it imo) or somebody with a huge potential indeed. Not shite like Stones though. Oh, and Jones and Rojo should be out of the door.
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fixed for you
 
Mark Pawelek said:
2 clear successes out of 17. Not good. Four of these signings were even supposed to be 'top', but weren't.
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You're leaving out a very important variable that has affected our transfers during that time - two failed managers with divergent transfer strategies, tactics, formations, as well as injuries. If we had one manager who employed the same formation and tactics during that period then you could make a decent case that we have punched below our weight in the transfer market. The reality however is a bit more nuanced.
 
Impossible to implement this strategy unless your success rate is ridiculous. You'll never be able to bring through a full 18 squad of good/top players that you've bought between the ages of 17-23, simply because they won't all fulfil their potential. Then to buy world class players just costs too much to consistently do that too. Buying proven steady talent at their peak 26-29 is essential in maintaining the right balance in the squad to remain at the top consistently. I don't see that as a problem either.
 
None of my critics are defending the punts Fergie made post-2008?
  • Manucho
  • Zoran Tosic
  • Gabriel Obertan
  • Mame Biram Diouf
  • Javier Hernández
  • Bebe
  • Anders Lindegaard
  • Nick Powell
  • Alexander Buttner
  • Ángelo Henríquez
  • Wilfried Zaha
None of them with experience in top leagues. All multi-million ££ signings. Only Chicharito and Lindegaard of any actual use but not really for a team aspiring to be in the Champions League semi-finals most years.

Even if you don't completely agree, you must partly - otherwise you'd be raving about how wonderful these signings were. Let's all agree that idea (whatever it was) is over and done.
 
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Manchester Dan said:
Buying proven steady talent at their peak 26-29 is essential in maintaining the right balance in the squad to remain at the top consistently.
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Let's suppose for a moment I accept your idea. We end up 5th place with 22 journeymen. How about limiting it to never more than 10 journeymen, 5 galacticos (or ideally as many as we can get) and the rest our most promising youth? LvG bought too many of this proven steady talent at their peak 26-29, and even missed the target there leaving some who should go now (nearly all of them if you ask me).
 
Fergie isn't in charge anymore, so doing things his way - including making Fergie style punts - is obviously not an alternative anymore.

The problem with the proposed strategy is - as mentioned above - that building a full squad is going to be very difficult if one sticks to those categories you mention strictly: The odd world beater - and the rest of the squad built from top talents in the 17-22 range. That isn't feasible. The latter category is too unpredictable.

I agree that we should pursue players in said category - even make that our main priority - but we can't build an entire squad based on the strategy you propose. It's simply not realistic.
 
Chesterlestreet said:
Fergie isn't in charge anymore, so doing things his way - including making Fergie style punts - is obviously not an alternative anymore.

The problem with the proposed strategy is - as mentioned above - that building a full squad is going to be very difficult if one sticks to those categories you mention strictly: The odd world beater - and the rest of the squad built from top talents in the 17-22 range. That isn't feasible. The latter category is too unpredictable.

I agree that we should pursue players in said category - even make that our main priority - but we can't build an entire squad based on the strategy you propose. It's simply not realistic.
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If you buy one or two galacticos every year, baring loss of form, you'll have a team full after a few years.

I'd be convinced I'm wrong if someone can tell me their alternative strategy to get a world class team.
 
Mark Pawelek said:
If you buy one or two galacticos every year, baring loss of form, you'll have a team full after a few years.
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This "strategy" has never worked in football terms. The only team that have used it as anything like an actual strategy, are Real Madrid - and they've had relatively little to show for it since they adopted it.

It's a throw-enough-shit-at-the-wall approach which I sincerely hope we do not intend to go for.
 
Manchester Dan said:
Impossible to implement this strategy unless your success rate is ridiculous. You'll never be able to bring through a full 18 squad of good/top players that you've bought between the ages of 17-23, simply because they won't all fulfil their potential. Then to buy world class players just costs too much to consistently do that too. Buying proven steady talent at their peak 26-29 is essential in maintaining the right balance in the squad to remain at the top consistently. I don't see that as a problem either.
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You can do try the Chelsea model and buy a load and then farm them out on loan every year. I think that's a decent model, had they kept KdB and Lukaku.
 
Xeno said:
You can do try the Chelsea model and buy a load and then farm them out on loan every year. I think that's a decent model, had they kept KdB and Lukaku.
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Chelsea's squad last season was the definition of journeymen, so it's hard to see them as the benchmark in this discussion. They do buy a lot of youth and loan them out, but how many go on to be a success? Certainly not nearly enough to be the sole gap filler between world class signings and have them challenging for the title. Chelsea spend a lot of money on good players at the top of their individual games.
 
Xeno said:
You can do try the Chelsea model and buy a load and then farm them out on loan every year. I think that's a decent model, had they kept KdB and Lukaku.
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With the way we have restructred our academy, I genuinely believe we are starting to move in this direction. A temple/institute type strategy that brings hoards of young players to the club that can then be turned into a profit/loss commodity based trade system when dealing with young players. Obviously cherry picking the best for the club.

I was really against this type of system. The way Fergie ran it was perfect, only a select brand of young players to come in and get exposed to the first team would get the taste to step up. But the game has changed now, the future is in making money out of young players going out on loan and then being sold back into the market. It is sad, but true. Where there is a buck to be made, I think this club as it currently presents itself, has to chase the option.
 
There is certainly a lot to be said for giving young players at the club a shot and only buying at the top end of the market. But I think the post underestimates the possibility and cost of those top signings going wrong as well. See Veron, Berbatov, Di Maria for starters. Any transfer can go wrong.
 
SAF would not have gotten his final champion with ManUtd if this method was in place.

I am not a ManUtd fans for a super long time, only since around 93, 94 that period. Even so, I can still think of so many ex players with legend status who do not fit into this policy, like Andy Cole, Dwight Yorke, Stam, Ole Gunnar, ect.
 
pablotatt said:
Who in the squad is a journeyman? I can't think of one.
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I always think of a journeyman as a guy who shunts around from club to club, never really excelling. But apparently the accepted meaning is:

1.
a worker or sports player who is reliable but not outstanding.

So by that definition you could argue for a whole bunch of our players e.g. Young, Blind, Herrera, maybe Valencia, maybe Smalling, even Fellaini though he's usually reliably absolute pony.
 
Chesterlestreet said:
This "strategy" has never worked in football terms. The only team that have used it as anything like an actual strategy, are Real Madrid - and they've had relatively little to show for it since they adopted it.

It's a throw-enough-shit-at-the-wall approach which I sincerely hope we do not intend to go for.
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what? Madrid do this and they get a lot of hate for being "ridiculous" and buying "ridiculous" players but just check their league record past decade and a half. They have plenty to show for it.

Couple that with their champions league success!
 
Its easy to blood young players into averagely good players, its next to nar impossible to blood an entire team from youth academy to first team. I challenge the op to name 5+ teams with 5+ starting XI (regular) that came from the youth ranks and managed to be succesful (at least 1 domestic league title).

Even Barca have to buy ready made (Suarez, Neymar, Mascherano - just this team...) Youth systems are great but unearthing top talent is like looking for diamonds in a coal pit.
 
I liked the way Dortmund built its team to win back to back in 2011/2. If they hadn't cashed in on transfers they could have been unstoppable by now.
Just look at the age at which they signed those players:
Weidenfeller, 22.
Subotic, 19.
Hummels, 20.
Lewandowski, 21.
Blaszczykowski, 21.
Bender, 20.
Piszczek, 24.
Kagawa, 21.
Barrios, 24.
Schmelzer, 20. Promoted.
Gotze, 17. Promoted.
At the time they won Bundesliga, these players were:
Weidenfeller31/2
Subotic, 22/3
Lewandowski, 22/3
Hummels, 21/2.
Blaszczykowski, 25/6
Bender, 22/3.
Kagawa, 22/3
Gotze, 19/20.
Schmelzer, 23/4.
Piszczek, 25/6.
Etc...
That's how it's done. Absolute peak ages. Shame they sold so many.
 
I don't think anything is wrong so far with how our strategy does since Mourinho came. Zlatan - experienced forward - exactly what we need with 2 young and excellent prospects in Martial and Rashford.

Then Bailly - highly rated(at his age bracket) defender who is still developing and yet to reach his prime. Micky - in his prime and Pogba (allegedly) who is also near his prime and could be very well one of the best midfielders in near future(not now of course).

For the first time since Fergie I trust our judgement and decisions when it comes to transfer. Can't say we have done badly in any way so far.

What it was in the past is irrelevant as we have a new manager with different ideology than the rest.
 
don't sign old players said:
I liked the way Dortmund built its team to win back to back in 2011/2. If they hadn't cashed in on transfers they could have been unstoppable by now.
Just look at the age at which they signed those players:
Weidenfeller, 22.
Subotic, 19.
Hummels, 20.
Lewandowski, 21.
Blaszczykowski, 21.
Bender, 20.
Piszczek, 24.
Kagawa, 21.
Barrios, 24.
Schmelzer, 20. Promoted.
Gotze, 17. Promoted.
At the time they won Bundesliga, these players were:
Weidenfeller31/2
Subotic, 22/3
Lewandowski, 22/3
Hummels, 21/2.
Blaszczykowski, 25/6
Bender, 22/3.
Kagawa, 22/3
Gotze, 19/20.
Schmelzer, 23/4.
Piszczek, 25/6.
Etc...
That's how it's done. Absolute peak ages. Shame they sold so many.
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A lot look pretty young to me. I thought peak age is late 20s for most: 24+ to 32.
 
Mark Pawelek said:
A lot look pretty young to me. I thought peak age is late 20s for most: 24+ to 32.
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For Usain Bolt it was 23, 2009 he broke WR for 100 and 200m.
Jesse Owens: 4 gold medals aged 22.
It's difficult to assert that for a footballer because we can't just judge them on their times like sprinters and it's a team sport.
But bringing people together when they're still young is a critical advantage besides.
There's been alot of great footballers well into their 30s, but I believe in bringing a team together when they're young is the only way to produce a really great team.
Look at the Barcelona team of 2009-11 and the ages of those players when they came to the Barcelona team.
Valdes, 20.
Pique, 21.
Xavi, 18.
Messi, 17.
Iniesta, 18.
Puyol, 21.
Busquets, 20.
Pedro, 21.
They all came from youth system. Between 2009 and 2011 Messi was 22-4. Busquets, 21-3. Pedro, 22-4. Iniesta, 24-6.
And so on. They were the best team on the planet by a country mile. United didn't even get to see the ball in 2009 and we were defending champions.
Edit: when Don Bradman was 22, he hit 300 runs in a day against England. He was good until he was almost 40, but he was never better than that.
 
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I'm with you on this one. Sadly enough, our youth graduates have been underrated for the past few years so we have players on our payroll who basically just earn big pay cheques while contributing nothing an academy player couldn't. Some still don't believe in this strategy despite the fact that this was proven last season as a lot of our kids played, and didn't, despite having little experience do any worse than these signings we've made over time.
 
shamans said:
what? Madrid do this and they get a lot of hate for being "ridiculous" and buying "ridiculous" players but just check their league record past decade and a half. They have plenty to show for it.
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That's very much debatable. The period in which Real took the greatest strides as a so-called "brand" in the mid noughties (with the Galactico policy being pursued actively by Pérez) coincided with lacklustre results for a supposedly "galactic" team. They were embarrassed in Europe for years on end, despite having the most "marketable" players in the world (except Messi, of course) on their books.

They could barely defend until Mourinho came along to sort them out.

They won plenty of league titles in the period, that much is true, but given the nature of both the league and the "project", this doesn't seem all that impressive - not least when one, again, looks at their positively underwhelming European record in the same period.

But, yes - by all means: If you want United to emulate their success as a "brand", then there are plenty of positives.
 
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