Top Four: The Race to 70 points

ManUnitedCanuck

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Dec 30, 2012
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The way I’m looking at the season is that we’ll likely need about 70 points to make the top 4. This is simply based on previous seasons and it appears that this is about the amount of points that will get you into the CL places. With that being the target, it means that we can only drop 44 points throughout the campaign.

I’m mentally tracking how many points we drop throughout each match to keep us on track. It’s a negative way to look at things currently, but view won’t change until I see more improvements and gaps filled in the squad such as the midfield and LB positions.
 
We need to aim higher than that imo. Liverpool Newcastle Chelsea Villa and Spursat least will be in the mix for two places and 75/80 pts might be needed
 
wolvored said:
We need to aim higher than that imo. Liverpool Newcastle Chelsea Villa and Spursat least will be in the mix for two places and 75/80 pts might be needed
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To achieve top four, it’s almost always around the 70-point mark. I’m far too lazy to check the exact figure but the seasons where 4th place achieved a minimum of 75 points are really few and far between.

Perhaps 72 points should do the trick.
 
ForFuchsSake said:
To achieve top four, it’s almost always around the 70-point mark. I’m far too lazy to check the exact figure but the seasons where 4th place achieved a minimum of 75 points are really few and far between.

Perhaps 72 points should do the trick.
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Villa 4th 76 pts last season
 
Really 5th should become active for CL, it was a massive underperformance across the board from the English clubs last year to only get one past the QF. Also two finished bottom of their CL groups so didn't even get the Europa league drop in.

65 points will likely be enough for that position.
 
wolvored said:
I asked my grandson to look up 4th pts last season he must have picked goals. My bad
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Not gonna lie, I did that briefly earlier in summer when I was trying to work out how far off 4th United were. I was sure we were only a couple of wins away so rechecked and copped it.
 
wolvored said:
We need to aim higher than that imo. Liverpool Newcastle Chelsea Villa and Spursat least will be in the mix for two places and 75/80 pts might be needed
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Nah there's always this perception that these teams (Newcastle, Villa, Spurs) will come out of the pack and suddenly find unprecedented levels of consistency but they generally don't.

Chelsea still look very hit and miss. Currently lacking in so many areas, desire their bloated squad.

Think we also need to bear in-mind, we finish 8pts off top four last season and everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. Even just a regular CB pairing (say 30 games together for Martinez & De Ligt) would probably mean we score 8pts more than last season.
 
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22 more wins and we're in the top four. Probably less needed but we can't draw or lose more than 15 games. That should be our aim at the very least.

We won 18 out of 38 league games last year. It's unbelievable when you look at it like that.
 
First rule of a new season...don't look at the table until everyone has played 10 games.
 
ManUnitedCanuck said:
The way I’m looking at the season is that we’ll likely need about 70 points to make the top 4. This is simply based on previous seasons and it appears that this is about the amount of points that will get you into the CL places. With that being the target, it means that we can only drop 44 points throughout the campaign.

I’m mentally tracking how many points we drop throughout each match to keep us on track. It’s a negative way to look at things currently, but view won’t change until I see more improvements and gaps filled in the squad such as the midfield and LB positions.
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If only there was something like a league table which showed our current points. :lol:
 
This is so depressing.

How about going into every gameweek aiming for three points?
 
elmo said:
If only there was something like a league table which showed our current points. :lol:
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Yep, there is that, but this is just a different way of looking at it. Unfortunately it’s a bit of a negative way to view it, but it’s where I’m at currently.
 
antohan said:
This is so depressing.

How about going into every gameweek aiming for three points?
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Agreed, know it’s a pessimistic view, but it’s where I’m at as a fan currently. Hoping the football levels improve and my positioning changes!
 
ManUnitedCanuck said:
Agreed, know it’s a pessimistic view, but it’s where I’m at as a fan currently. Hoping the football levels improve and my positioning changes!
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I didn't mean it as criticism but we played one game so far and won. For now enjoy the thrill of the chase, even if it only lasts until like... October? Plenty of time to get all pragmatic and wary the rest of the season.
 
Target seems reasonable, although I don't really get the point in counting dropped points.

Let's say we're at game 30 with 55 points. What's the difference between saying we should aim for 15 more points from 8 games, or saying we've dropped 35 so far and need to drop no more than 9 for the remainder of the season other than the 2nd method being more complicated as you have to do additional calculations to work out the dropped points?

If wanting to keep a running total, could always say 11 points every 6 matches. Puts a team on 66 with 2 to play. Near enough. Make adjustments for opposition strength for more accurate tracking.
 
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3 games in and have already dropped 6 points, meaning United can only drop 38 more in 35 matches. That’s basically stating we need to average 2 points a match for the remainder of the season….hopefully can put a run of wins together at some point.
 
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