The widening gap between the Premier League and the leagues below

[Alex99]

With Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton currently making up the bottom three, all newly promoted teams, I thought I'd have a look and see whether all of the newly promoted teams had been immediately relegated two seasons running before. I got as far back as 1960-61 and couldn't find any.

In fact, in the 32 seasons prior to the creation of the Premier League, there wasn't a single one in which all of the newly promoted teams were relegated. Maybe it happened before, but I ran out of steam. If it happens again this season, it'll be the third time in the Premier League era.

What I did discover was that, since the inception of the Premier League, 44% of teams promoted into the league have been relegated straight back down, and a further 18% have been relegated within three seasons. In total, 68% of teams promoted to the league failed to survive more than five seasons.

In the 32 seasons prior to the Premier League, only 18% of teams were immediately relegated back to the second tier, a further 16% within three seasons, and the total within five seasons was 48%.

There have been 97 Premier League relegations, but just 43 teams. There were 83 relegations in the 32 top flight seasons prior to the Premier League, with 45 teams facing the drop.

Is there any way back, or is the money at the top just too much now for new teams to make the climb?

 

[711]

I read that as 32% of promoted teams survive more than five seasons. I'm surprised but if true that's pretty good, and hopeful for teams in lower leagues.

 

[JJ12]

I read that as 32% of promoted teams survive more than five seasons. I'm surprised but if true that's pretty good, and hopeful for teams in lower leagues.

Yeah that's decent but I think that's his point. Teams are going straight back down more often in recent years.

 

[MaMa given red]

I don't think it's that big yet. it was only two years ago (22/23) that all three promoted teams stayed up.

In part it's down to historically smaller clubs like Brighton, Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth being incredibly well run.

 

[Fortitude]

There's a *massive* difference between a consolidated PL side and the vast majority of promotees. It is a team full of PL proven players verses squads of maybes with perhaps a smattering of players who will become PL fixtures.

The gap is practically insurmountable, as proven, and unless something is done to bridge it, the situation can only worsen.

Newly promoted teams need some means by which they have a prayer of being competitive. The "reward" for most who come up is a thoroughly depressing season, getting seven bells knocked out of them on repeat.

The few who are fortunate enough to not have that experience are either golden generation for that club or PL sides who managed to retain their players upon relegation.

 

[Michael T]

I don't think it's just an English leagues issue. With the amount of money that has come into the Premier League over the years, the gap in quality now includes all but a handful of clubs in the other European leagues. I would think teams like Villa, Forest or Bournemouth would be almost guaranteed top three in any of the other European leagues.

 

[Lay]

I said this before when posters want the likes of Hojlund have a year in the Championship. It wont make him ready for the EPL because the gap is huge now.

But it's becoming a problem in Europe. There's only a handful of clubs that a top player can go to and majority are in England.

 

[KeanoMagicHat]

The play-offs add some excitement to the the Championship but it leaves for some weak teams which are barely ready for the Premier League. Southampton weren't ready and have got destroyed this year. Leicester might have had a better chance if they had kept Maresca.

Another issue is that you have managers like Russell and Kompany that are focused on a certain style of play that works against weaker opposition but gets steamrollered against better ones, but will not compromise on that for career reputation reasons because they might get a job with Bayern Munich - which is what happened and will only encourage this further.

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

The gap between the Championship and League One has increased considerably in recent times.

Obviously there were periods when the likes of Barnsley and Rotherham were continually rebounding between the two divisions.

I know players in the lower leagues who have said that if they can make the Championship (without even getting to the Premier League), they can then make enough money to have a comfortable post-retirement life.

 

[711]

The play-offs add some excitement to the the Championship but it leaves for some weak teams which are barely ready for the Premier League. Southampton weren't ready and have got destroyed this year. Leicester might have had a better chance if they had kept Maresca.

I think you're right about 3rd place but it is what the Championship clubs wish, they could change it to three direct promotions if they wanted. Given that, if a high proportion of third-placers drop back it doesn't matter, they at least have the chance to structure their expenditure accordingly and gain from parachute payments, leaving them better off than they were before. If done right they can yo-yo their way up over time.

 

[FootballHQ]

You need a whole combination of factors to come together to be competitive after coming up from the championship.

Fulham I think all round is the best example of how to do it. It is easy to say Forest but let's remember they've had a chaotic transfer strategy and also had a points deduction last season.

Fulham got lucky Marco Silva flopped at Everton so he was a great pick up for them to come into the prem as he's managed in top leagues for a decade. Great range of signings, Paliniha, Tete, Andersen, Jimenez, Smith Rowe, Iwobi. Loads of experience and potential after not working out for a few of those in recent years.

They've never looked in any danger of going down and now an outside chance of Europe.

I think of the teams trying to come up Sunderland have the closest chance of emulating them as they have an incredibly exciting young team, just need some experienced older heads to complement it. If it's any of Burnley, Sheffield United, Norwich or West Brom it will just be more of the same from them.

The one thing that is baffling me is why these teams are coming up and not realising you need to make your play on your own ground as difficult as possible. Stoke had it exactly right years ago with their unique style and it got them 8/9 wins every season. Forest also had a very good record at home in their first season up.

Ipswich have 1 win from first 12 at home, that is poor. Burnley had the same record this time last year, it shouldn't be easy for teams to go to a Burnley type venue so this is where trying to outfootball experienced and international quality top half prem teams is an incredibly naïve idea.

Leeds coming up would be interesting aswell with the Red Bull group running them. Their biggest problem then would be how long do you give Farke? 10 or 20 games or even replace him immediately when promoted?

 

[Alex99]

I don't think it's that big yet. it was only two years ago (22/23) that all three promoted teams stayed up.

In part it's down to historically smaller clubs like Brighton, Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth being incredibly well run.

Two of those teams are set to go down again this season as newly promoted teams, and the other was Leeds who went down within three.

I read that as 32% of promoted teams survive more than five seasons. I'm surprised but if true that's pretty good, and hopeful for teams in lower leagues.

That's skewed heavily by older data though. In the past six seasons, only three from 18 were relegated having spent 6 or more seasons in the league, and they've all basically become yo-yo teams (Burnley, Leicester and Southampton). It'll be three from 21 if things stay as they are.

I don't think it's just an English leagues issue. With the amount of money that has come into the Premier League over the years, the gap in quality now includes all but a handful of clubs in the other European leagues. I would think teams like Villa, Forest or Bournemouth would be almost guaranteed top three in any of the other European leagues.

The gap between the Championship and League One has increased considerably in recent times.

Obviously there were periods when the likes of Barnsley and Rotherham were continually rebounding between the two divisions.

I know players in the lower leagues who have said that if they can make the Championship (without even getting to the Premier League), they can then make enough money to have a comfortable post-retirement life.

It'd be interesting to see what the figures are like across other leagues, and between the lower English divisions, but I can't be arsed doing that myself.

The play-offs add some excitement to the the Championship but it leaves for some weak teams which are barely ready for the Premier League. Southampton weren't ready and have got destroyed this year. Leicester might have had a better chance if they had kept Maresca.

Another issue is that you have managers like Russell and Kompany that are focused on a certain style of play that works against weaker opposition but gets steamrollered against better ones, but will not compromise on that for career reputation reasons because they might get a job with Bayern Munich - which is what happened and will only encourage this further.

I posted a while back about Kompany (among others) just using "lesser" clubs as auditions for big jobs now. It's all about proving they can get a team playing a certain way, rather than actually getting results. I do think that it's not helping these clubs that they all come up and try and play a version of Pep-ball, but without the quality of the teams already in the division.

 

[FootballHQ]

Ipswich generally get a free pass though. Two years ago in league one and half of their squad played in it so astronomical leap and looks like it's too much even though they've had some very good results for a promoted team this season.

No way should Southampton be as bad as 9 points though. That's certainly a failed strategy of thinking Russell Martin could outfootball european teams. Also they've got very much down the youth route. Southampton for years were a stable mid table team with a good core of experienced players and exciting youth prospects. Probably shows what a good job Hasenhuttl did for many seasons their struggles now at premier level.

Then you add Leicester in the mix who have completely lost their way. Less than four years ago they were finishing 5th and winning FA cup but it's been a complete shambles with strategy and transfers in and out since then so we know in a more stable environment they can be far more competitive at prem level. They probably weren't expecting either Maresca to walk out after promotion either but whether his style would've been more effective than we've seen from Cooper/RVN I'm not sure.

 

[Alex99]

Ipswich generally get a free pass though. Two years ago in league one and half of their squad played in it so astronomical leap and looks like it's too much even though they've had some very good results for a promoted team this season.

No way should Southampton be as bad as 9 points though. That's certainly a failed strategy of thinking Russell Martin could outfootball european teams. Also they've got very much down the youth route. Southampton for years were a stable mid table team with a good core of experienced players and exciting youth prospects. Probably shows what a good job Hasenhuttl did for many seasons their struggles now at premier level.

Then you add Leicester in the mix who have completely lost their way. Less than four years ago they were finishing 5th and winning FA cup but it's been a complete shambles with strategy and transfers in and out since then so we know in a more stable environment they can be far more competitive at prem level. They probably weren't expecting either Maresca to walk out after promotion either but whether his style would've been more effective than we've seen from Cooper/RVN I'm not sure.

Does that not just show how quickly things can go wrong unless you're a truly well established team?

Even being in the league a decade doesn't do a lot for some teams. Southampton were relegated after 11 years last time out, Leicester 9. Go back further and you've got Fulham after 13 seasons, Middlesbrough, Bolton and Blackburn after 11 seasons, Stoke and Sunderland after 10, West Brom and Wigan after 8, and Swansea and Portsmouth after 7. Middlesbrough and West Brom both returned for a single season, and Fulham have been relegated after single seasons twice since then, so it's not like they've re-established themselves at this point. Outside of that you're looking at Villa going down for a year after 28 seasons, Newcastle going down after 16, and even Newcastle were relegated again after that.

Arsenal have been in the top flight for a century, Everton, Liverpool and United for over half a century, and Spurs and Chelsea for over a quarter of a century, a mark City are now close to. With the exception of Everton, who have very much flirted with relegation in recent years, the rest of those teams have all been regulars in Europe for the last 10-15 years, so it's probably fair to argue that the gap is even within the Premier League, and between the "European" sides and the rest.

 

[Bertie Wooster]

I don't think it's that big yet. it was only two years ago (22/23) that all three promoted teams stayed up.

In part it's down to historically smaller clubs like Brighton, Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth being incredibly well run.

I think that's a fair point.

There's always something to grumble about - but in the past it's also been about how 'impossible' it is for any teams to break past the big four - then big six, etc. Now you've got teams like Villa, Newcastle, Brighton, Forest, Brentford, Bournemouth, Fulham in the top 11.

And if you've also then got clubs like Man United and Tottenham as low as 13th and 14th then is it any wonder the promoted sides are below that?

I'd say all that's a sign that if you're being well run and managed then just a certain amount of money - and it'll obviously always take that to get to the top of an elite league like the English top flight - then you can still be very competitive in the league.

So it's probably a little harder for newly promoted teams now that quite a few middle / lower rankings teams have got themselves in a very successful phase for their standards and aren't relegation material for now. But it also depends on the teams coming up - teams like Luton and Ipswich were punching above their weight getting promoted from the championship and not a surprise that they struggled; whereas, as was pointed out, it's not long ago that Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth came up and stayed up - and remain up and are currently all in the top 9.

 

[711]

That's skewed heavily by older data though. In the past six seasons, only three from 18 were relegated having spent 6 or more seasons in the league, and they've all basically become yo-yo teams (Burnley, Leicester and Southampton). It'll be three from 21 if things stay as they are.

But you're not going to get anyone having spent 6 or more seasons in he league if they were only promoted three or four years ago are you?

In general I don't think the Championship gets the respect it deserves from many Premier league fans. It is something like the sixth best supported league in Europe, great crowds and is a vibrant and successful league, and it doesn't exist on it's own as it's part of the pyramid, with promotions out and new teams promoted in. It's a bit odd knocking the Championship when it is the best second tier league in the world.

 

[Alex99]

But you're not going to get anyone having spent 6 or more seasons in he league if they were only promoted three or four years ago are you?

In general I don't think the Championship gets the respect it deserves from many Premier league fans. It is something like the sixth best supported league in Europe, great crowds and is a vibrant and successful league, and it doesn't exist on it's own as it's part of the pyramid, with promotions out and new teams promoted in. It's a bit odd knocking the Championship when it is the best second tier league in the world.

I'm not sure you've thought that first bit through.

There are plenty of teams who have been in the league longer, they're just not getting relegated. The point is that almost half the time it's a team in their first season, and over two thirds of the time it's a fairly recently promoted time.

I'm also not sure why you've taken this as a knock on the Championship. If anything I'm pointing out that the Premier League is a relatively closed shop, with a selection of teams permitted temporary admittance to make up the numbers.

 

[Gandalf]

Then you add Leicester in the mix who have completely lost their way. Less than four years ago they were finishing 5th and winning FA cup but it's been a complete shambles with strategy and transfers in and out since then so we know in a more stable environment they can be far more competitive at prem level. They probably weren't expecting either Maresca to walk out after promotion either but whether his style would've been more effective than we've seen from Cooper/RVN I'm not sure.

Leicester are to some degree victims of that success though. I am sure that they would not want to give up that title winning season but it created a level of expectation and a certain pressure to stay at the top table. Twice finishing fifth is great but on both occasions they missed out on a CL spot on the final day of the season and they had fallen into the trap of paying big wages and making big signings to try and get CL football. They got into massive PSR troubles and have had to gut their squad just to keep the wolves from the door and only avoided a points deduction by the clever strategy of getting relegated. A lot of quality players have left over the last two seasons and yet as the January window has shown they are still handicapped by the overspending in previous years.

Leeds will be an interesting case if they come up as looks likely. If they had bounced straight back last season I would have backed them to go down but now they have moved on a lot of their old squad and reshaped the team quite significantly. They score a lot but are defensively disciplined and should have the budget to sign 3 or 4 PL quality players if they come up without risking any PSR breach due to the funds raised in outgoings over the last two years.

 

[adexkola]

The play-offs add some excitement to the the Championship but it leaves for some weak teams which are barely ready for the Premier League. Southampton weren't ready and have got destroyed this year. Leicester might have had a better chance if they had kept Maresca.

Another issue is that you have managers like Russell and Kompany that are focused on a certain style of play that works against weaker opposition but gets steamrollered against better ones, but will not compromise on that for career reputation reasons because they might get a job with Bayern Munich - which is what happened and will only encourage this further.

There is no guarantee a more rustic style will guarantee survival, as proven by all the 10 men behind the ball cloggers that have gone back down after 1 season.

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

Leicester in the Championship last season felt unfair. They had a bench full of players that would have walked into the regular starting line-ups of most other teams in the division. It seemed like they, and also Fulham in 2021/2022 effectively had a cheat code.

 

[711]

I'm not sure you've thought that first bit through.

There are plenty of teams who have been in the league longer, they're just not getting relegated. The point is that almost half the time it's a team in their first season, and over two thirds of the time it's a fairly recently promoted time.

I'm also not sure why you've taken this as a knock on the Championship. If anything I'm pointing out that the Premier League is a relatively closed shop, with a selection of teams permitted temporary admittance to make up the numbers.

And that's absolutely fine. About half the clubs in the league, maybe less, can consider themselves permanent members, the rest change, some after a few years, some quicker. It's a good thing we have 'big clubs' as that's what's needed to compete with the Bayerns and Reals of this world, and it's a good thing there is change for the rest, for the Championship and the Pyramid.

As for 'thinking it through', I can only reply to what you actually write, rather than what you might be thinking yourself.

 

[Alex99]

And that's absolutely fine. About half the clubs in the league, maybe less, can consider themselves permanent members, the rest change, some after a few years, some quicker. It's a good thing we have 'big clubs' as that's what's needed to compete with the Bayerns and Reals of this world, and it's a good thing there is change for the rest, for the Championship and the Pyramid.

As for 'thinking it through', I can only reply to what you actually write, rather than what you might be thinking yourself.

Then what do you say about the massive increase failing to survive their first season from the pre-Premier League days?

I'm not saying every club should stay up for ages, but it's quite clearly become much harder, and it's not even like it's led to more clubs getting a shot. It's actually fewer.

 

[711]

Then what do you say about the massive increase failing to survive their first season from the pre-Premier League days?

I'm not saying every club should stay up for ages, but it's quite clearly become much harder, and it's not even like it's led to more clubs getting a shot. It's actually fewer.

Already been answered

I don't think it's that big yet. it was only two years ago (22/23) that all three promoted teams stayed up.

In part it's down to historically smaller clubs like Brighton, Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth being incredibly well run.

It may turn out in the future that there is a massive increase and then it would be time to consider it, but I don't think the stats are showing that yet. All a matter of interpretation I suppose, but personally I think the promotion/relegation system is working well.

The TV money is shared out pretty fairly, certainly compared to some other leagues, and that's important, but it's already there.

You've put some thought into it, what changes would you make?

 

[Alex99]

Already been answered

It may turn out in the future that there is a massive increase and then it would be time to consider it, but I don't think the stats are showing that yet. All a matter of interpretation I suppose, but personally I think the promotion/relegation system is working well.

The TV money is shared out pretty fairly, certainly compared to some other leagues, and that's important, but it's already there.

You've put some thought into it, what changes would you make?

And I'd already responded to that bit:

Two of those teams are set to go down again this season as newly promoted teams, and the other was Leeds who went down within three.

I'm not sure what the answer is, or if there even is one. It might just be a case of the genie being out of the bottle.

It seems to be a worsening problem though, which is why I brought up the figures from the last 6 (possibly 7, after this one) seasons.

 

[Ole'sgunnarwin]

I said this before when posters want the likes of Hojlund have a year in the Championship. It wont make him ready for the EPL because the gap is huge now.

But it's becoming a problem in Europe. There's only a handful of clubs that a top player can go to and majority are in England.

Eh Amad?

 

[Lay]

Eh Amad?

That was after injuries and failed loan moves to the Dutch league (injuries) and not playing for Rangers enough. That I understand.

I don't understand throwing Hojlund a player with 50+ appearances for United into the Championship because it's somehow meant to prepare him for the EPL.

 

[Chipper]

I suppose the 'top 4' became the 'big 6' and now is arguabaly 7 with Newcastle who you just don't feel can go down right now. Means that there's more teams almost guranteed to stay up with the rest fighting it out?

Not that Spurs went down for a long time anyway, but they seem a bit too financially well off to do it now. When Gerry Francis or Martin Jol was managing them they perhaps could have. City of course did before the Middle East money to join the group of clubs that just can't.

West Ham possibly close to joining that group with their huge stadium on cheap rent even though they've flirted with it a few times in recent years. Still, they seem to have too much money top completely fail even if their chairman is belived to be a tight arse. They can splash the cash when they want to or need to.

The one thing that is baffling me is why these teams are coming up and not realising you need to make your play on your own ground as difficult as possible. Stoke had it exactly right years ago with their unique style and it got them 8/9 wins every season. Forest also had a very good record at home in their first season up.

There's obviously no club trying not to make their home ground a fortress but yes, Stoke a great example of that like you said. It's well documented that Tony Pulis phoned up SAF when they got promoted asking for advice as they're great friends and that's what he told him to do, the rest is history. I don't know how they played in the Championship but I don't think it was quite the same? Probably somewhat rough and ready without being quite so extreme?

There is no guarantee a more rustic style will guarantee survival, as proven by all the 10 men behind the ball cloggers that have gone back down after 1 season.

Does it have to be rustic? Seems the obvious route to go down if you want to do something different, especially as so many teams have shyed away from that style of play. It would be a big outlier. Suppose Forest are the nearest we have?

Still, maybe a team could come up with an unusual formation or go down the relationsim route to mix it up.

Remember when Swansea came up? They were something different without having to be rustic. Very centered around possession under Rodgers which at the tame was ahead of the curve for a newly promoted side. 3rd most possession of all teams in their debut PL season.

If you're going to play a similar style of football to everyone else but have inferior players you're obviously going to be relegated. You either have to have unrecognised gems of players or do something different to buck the trend. It's so hard though, because you might have to change your approach completely from what brought you the success in getting promoted in the first place. It's like you need a whole new squad and manager as the task is so different a lot of the time.

 

[FootballHQ]

Does that not just show how quickly things can go wrong unless you're a truly well established team?

Even being in the league a decade doesn't do a lot for some teams. Southampton were relegated after 11 years last time out, Leicester 9. Go back further and you've got Fulham after 13 seasons, Middlesbrough, Bolton and Blackburn after 11 seasons, Stoke and Sunderland after 10, West Brom and Wigan after 8, and Swansea and Portsmouth after 7. Middlesbrough and West Brom both returned for a single season, and Fulham have been relegated after single seasons twice since then, so it's not like they've re-established themselves at this point. Outside of that you're looking at Villa going down for a year after 28 seasons, Newcastle going down after 16, and even Newcastle were relegated again after that.

Arsenal have been in the top flight for a century, Everton, Liverpool and United for over half a century, and Spurs and Chelsea for over a quarter of a century, a mark City are now close to. With the exception of Everton, who have very much flirted with relegation in recent years, the rest of those teams have all been regulars in Europe for the last 10-15 years, so it's probably fair to argue that the gap is even within the Premier League, and between the "European" sides and the rest.

Yep. Brentford and Brighton are two of the best run clubs in the country but there's no real strategy that is failure proof other than being run by a state these days.

Brentford will probably get relegated post Frank eventually but they could still have some more good years in the prem given how well they sign generally. Bournemouth brilliant to watch but all it will take is a summer where Iraola and a couple of key players leave and the replacements don't work out and they'll be back down there.

I think a few clubs also just stagnate in the mid table area and lose the moment to push on and again it just takes a bad managerial move and you'll be clinging on to prem status as Everton have been doing. Palace and West Ham in that category.

What the prem needs now is a couple of big clubs with 40k crowds to come up so I'd like to see Leeds and Sunderland make it as you feel they might have a bit of a go if they sign smartly.