The Par PL table 2024/25

[The White Pele]

Introduction to the Par PL table
Some of the older posters among us will remember the "Storey table" introduced by former Arsenal-supporting poster PeterStorey and this is essentially the same. In essence this view of the table seeks to give a fairer reflection on the title race, taking into account the relative difficulty of the fixtures. For example, if your team is 2 points off the top of the league after 10 games but you have played a handful of the top teams away from home already, then logic dictates that you may actually be in a better position than the league leaders. This scoring system attempts to quantify that.

I will strive to update this thread each week with the latest scores and table.

Scoring
The scoring is simple. Each fixture is assigned a "par" value or expected outcome based on the perceived level of the opponent. The actual points achieved is then compared to the par score and your score vs par is accumulated, as it is in golf.

So here's the formula to win the league:
Win all home games against the bottom 12 sides (12 x par 3) = 36 points
Win all away games against the bottom 12 sides (12 x par 3) = 36 points
Average 2 points per game at home against the top 8 sides (7 x par 2) = 14 points
Average 1 point per game away against the top 8 sides (7 x par 2) = 7 points
TOTAL 93 points

So a score of -3 or better probably wins the league and a score of -23 or better is probably required to finish in the top 4. Below shows the point distribution in the league for the last 3 seasons:

Spoiler

Position	21/22	22/23	23/24*	3 yr average
1	93	89	91	91
2	92	84	89	88
3	74	75	82	77
4	71	71	68	70
5	69	67	66	67
6	58	62	63	61
7	56	61	60	59
8	52	60	60	57
9	51	59	52	54
10	51	52	49	51
11	49	45	48	47
12	48	44	48	47
13	46	41	48	45
14	45	40	47	44
15	40	39	46	42
16	39	38	39	39
17	38	36	36	37
18	35	34	26	32
19	23	31	24	26
20	22	25	16	21

*23/34 shows underlying points totals excluding points deductions

The "Top 8" sides are as per last season's final league positions: City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle, United

Why a top 8?

Spoiler

If we're looking at the title race, in reality I think most objective pundits would be expecting Arsenal and City to fight for the trophy again but beyond those two it's difficult to draw a clear divide between those sides that could qualify for the Champions League and those that can't.

The "big six" is still a thing. In the last 10 seasons each of the "big six" teams have finished in the top six at least 8 times. Outside of the "big six" only Leicester have finished in the top six more than once in the last 10 seasons. However, Newcastle and Villa have both qualified for the Champions League in the last couple of years and are well placed to compete for those places again this season so they have been included.

Outside of these 8 teams, perhaps West Ham could challenge the European places this season given the ambition they have showed in the summer but it remains to be seen. Palace also have some momentum and Brighton have finished up there recently so ones to watch out for.

Are the "par" scores reflective of the points achieved by the Champions in recent season?

Spoiler

Broadly, yes.

If you look at the points per game (PPG) of City over the last 3 seasons and round to the nearest whole number, then the Par scores for each fixture ring true. In reality, although the champions rack up the vast majority of their points in the games home/away to the bottom 12 it is obviously unlikely to have a perfect record across these 24 games and therefore 3 points per game is unrealistic. Nevertheless, over the last 3 seasons City have averaged 2.7 points per game across these fixtures and any draw or defeat against these teams would definitely be viewed as "points dropped" and so 3 is a reasonable par.

To offset those points dropped against the bottom 12, City have scored more than 1 PPG away to the top 8 and more than 2 PPG at home to the top 8 in order to reach the 90 point benchmark

	Avg pts	Avg PPG
Top 8 home	16.7	2.38
Top 8 away	10.3	1.48
Bottom 12 home	32.0	2.67
Bottom 12 away	32.0	2.67
Total	91.0	2.39

How can you have a Par of 2 for home games against the top sides when you can't actually achieve 2 points?
It's a fair challenge and as a result of this scoring you will always have a + or - from these games.

However that feels right in my opinion. Beating a rival at home never just feels like a par result it feels like a small gain. And expecting to win all 7 of those games feels unrealistic. Similarly, drawing at home to a rival may not feel like a terrible result but definitely feels like a small loss and drawing all 7 of those games would not be title form.

 

[The White Pele]

Season Preview

Assessing the course of the season, I've split the the campaign into four phases:

1. 16th Aug - 10th Nov - The Start: 11 games in total from the opening weekend to the 3rd international break in November. A real stop-start part of the season and European group games to navigate. New signings, managers and tactics bedding in and we'll start to have a good idea of how the season is shaping up. You can't win the league in these initial games but you can certainly lose it.
2. 23rd Nov - 5th Jan - The Christmas period: 9 league games packed into this period of 6 weeks. Always a challenging period to navigate. Cold Tuesday night in Stoke etc
3. 14th Jan - 16th March - 9 league games between the 3rd round of the FA Cup and the spring international break. With Cup games and European knockouts ramping up, the story of the season starts to unfold and we learn what each club will be playing for at the end of the season
4. 1st Apr - 25th May - The Run-in: The last 9 games. The final push for the title and european places

Looking at the "par" points tallies for each team for each phase of the season, the key takeaway is probably that Arsenal have a very difficult start to the season. They face 6 of the top 8 in the first 11 games and 5 of these are away from home. So you would expect them to fall behind City in this period. On the flip side they have the most favourable Christmas period so they should be looking to recover any gap during that spell.

From a United perspective the Christmas period looks challenging with away trips to Arsenal, Liverpool and City to navigate so don't be surprised if we have lost ground before the new year. The Jan-March period should be our strongest with 7 out of 9 games against the bottom 12 sides with 4 of these being at home.

Phase	1	2	3	4	Total
Man Utd	28	20	24	21	93
Man City	28	21	20	24	93
Arsenal	22	26	21	24	93
Liverpool	27	21	22	23	93
Aston Villa	27	22	23	21	93
Tottenham	27	22	23	21	93
Chelsea	26	24	21	22	93
Newcastle	28	21	23	21	93

The runners and riders
Manchester City
Last season: 91 pts (1st)
A record 4th league title in a row, can they make it 5?

It has the feeling of being Guardiola's last season and if so there's no doubt he will want to go out on a high. His squad remains strong. 90 points is their benchmark and they have proven they can sustain that level season on season whilst others fall short. It has been a summer of evolution rather than revolution for the champions, the main protagonists remain the same: Haaland's goals, De Bruyne's class, Foden on the back of a standout season, the mercurial Bernardo Silva, Rhodri's midfield invincibility, juggernauts in defence, Ederson in goal. There are some changes to the supporting cast though. Alvarez has departed to La Liga for a hefty fee to step out of the shadows. Savinho has arrived to bring something new out wide and promising youngsters may have their part to play, although Bobb's injury is a bitter blow. Overall you would expect it to be more of the same from City on the pitch this season, but off the pitch the 115 charges still loom large...

Pros: They know the course, been there and done it. Guardiola is unrelenting
Cons: Midfield depth still an issue, although the return of Gundogan is a boost. Rhodri is still indispensable
Notable Ins: Savinho, Gundogan*
Notable Outs: Alvarez
Key player: Rhodri
Prediction: 1st

Arsenal
Last season: 88 pts (2nd)
Is this the year they get over the line?

Arsenal have carried the fight to City for the last two seasons and are best placed to do so again. They were arguably the most consistent team last season in terms of performances, maintaining control in the majority of the games, boasting the best defence record in the league whilst also sharing 91 goals around the team including 22 from set-pieces. Their defence has been further strengthened by the arrival of Calafiori and the return from injury of last summer's marquee signing Jurrien Timber. Behind the defence David Raya is now a more settled presence in goal following his initial loan spell. There may still be some question marks over their midfield balance and depth but Rice and Odegaard will be a force again as will Saka in attack. Havertz grew throughout last campaign and will likely score more this season but there is still the consensus that Arsenal would welcome the addition of a proven goalscorer to their ranks, especially on the left side with Martinelli contributing just 6 goals in 2023/24. It would appear that the Gunners will add one or two new faces in the coming days to address these issues in the squad. The concern overall would be whether Arsenal can maintain this level for a 3rd season in a row. They have been somewhat fortunate with injuries to their key players in comparison to some of their rivals, relied heavily on set-piece goals last season and also have had little distraction from cup competitions. Could they be due a dip? Will the belief, motivation and energy from the club and it's supporters start to slip if they fall behind early in the race due to their tough opening fixtures? I think if they hold their level of last season then they will be Champions this time but no other club aside in recent years from City have been able to sustain this level...

Pros: Solid defence which has been reinforced. Impressively consistent. Highly motivated
Cons: Individual quality in attack. Midfield depth
Notable Ins: Calafiori
Notable Outs: Smith-Rowe
Key player: Odegaard
Prediction: 2nd

Liverpool
Last season: 82 pts (3rd)
No Klopp, no transfers...no problem?
On paper, Liverpool's circumstances ahead of the new season looked as if it could be a recipe for disaster. The departure of Klopp was always going to be a big blow to the club and it's supporters and leave big shoes to fill. To make things worse there was no obvious candidate and the one name that captured the hearts and minds of the Kop, Xabi Alonso, turned the opportunity down. Arne Slot was not a name that would have been considered by many and looking at the fortunes of their bitter rivals, Liverpool fans could be forgiven for having reservations about the arrival of a manager from the Eredivisie to pick up the mantle from their most successful manager in over 30 years. To make things worse, the timing of Klopp's exit has coincided with their three most important players: Van Dijk, Alexander Arnold and Salah entering the final year of their contracts, whilst numerous changes in the club's hierarchy and a lack of demonstrable ambition in the transfer market may give those star names some concerns about the direction of the club.

All of those factors have seen Liverpool predicted to drop down the table in many peoples predictions for this season. However, despite the lack of new signings the signs in pre-season have been good. Liverpool still look a team that will always carry a threat with their key marksman Salah still looking sharp, as do his supporting cast. Jota in particular could be a big contributor to their goals tally this season if he can stay fit. Time will tell whether Arne Slot can adapt to the enormity of following Klopp and there is always the potential for things to unravel as we get into the thick of the season but at the moment there is little evidence to suggest that in the short-term Liverpool will derail in the manner some of us may have hoped for.

Pros: Always carry a threat. Still have top players
Cons: Reinforcements needed in midfield and uncertainty over key players. Slot inexperienced in PL
Notables Ins: -
Notable Outs: Matip
Key player: Salah
Prediction: 3rd

Aston Villa
Last season: 68 pts (4th)
Can they consolidate their top 4 status?

Aston Villa enjoyed their highest league finish for almost 30 years last season. Led by Emery, arguably the most underrated coach in Europe, and following several seasons of ambition shown in the transfer market, Villa returned to Europe's elite competition after a season of impressive performances and results which including taking the scalps of both Manchester City and Arsenal. History tells us that breaking into the top 4 is one thing and staying there is another. Look no further than Newcastle last season who dropped from 4th to 7th and closer to home United dropped from 3rd to 8th. The narrative is usually that the burden of European football puts a strain on the resources of the squad that adversely impacts domestic form and whilst that does hold water we shouldn't overlook the fact that Villa had European action in the Conference League deep into last season, an impressive squad depth that has been bolstered further and a manager that is accustomed to managing clubs at this level. Douglas Luiz will be a loss to them but hey have acted smartly in replacing him with Onana for a decent fee who will come with a point to prove. There may be an over-reliance on the irrepressible Watkins up front and the Englishman will do well to reach the numbers he did last season but nevertheless Villa are as well-tooled to finish 4th as any of the clubs that will be chasing them and probably will carry less pressure to do so.

Pros: Impressive squad depth and quality. Excellent manager
Cons: Champions League can be a distraction, history tells us this. A reliance on Watkins
Notable Ins: Onana, Maatsen, Philogene, Barkley
Notable Outs: Diaby, Douglas Luiz
Key player: Onana
Prediction: 4th

Tottenham Hotspur
Last season: 66 pts (5th)
It's the history of Tottenham

The arrival of Ange Postecoglu and his glass half-full football had Spurs fans dreaming in the early stages of last season. Alas, with injuries and a lack of form they ended the campaign with an all too familiar feeling of narrowly falling short - in this case for Champions League football. Despite losing Harry Kane their new manager did deliver open attacking football which excited many but also drew critics for being defensively naive at times. Postecoglu has lofty ambitions and appears to be wrestling for a change in mentality at the club but the challenges remain the same as they perpetually try to close the gap on those clubs above them without really attracting the players that will move the needle. Their big bet this season is Dom Solanke who had a fantastic return leading the line for Bournemouth but is a level below Kane. Archie Gray arriving in midfield from Leeds could be an exciting watch. Overall it doesn't feel like a significant improvement in the squad and the defensive frailties could still be their achilles heel.

Pros: Postecoglu now settled in. Solanke will add goals
Cons: Lack of top quality in key areas. Too open at times
Notable Ins: Solanke, Gray, Odobert, Bergvall
Notable Outs: Skipp, Hojberg, Royal
Key player: Solanke
Prediction: 6th

Chelsea
Last season: 63 pts (6th)
The madness continues

It is perhaps the most "Chelsea" thing imaginable that after salvaging a 6th placed finish ahead of United and Newcastle, which looked implausible for most of the season, that the club parted ways with manager Pochettino, in doing so surrendering any hard-fought momentum that they had gained and returning to square one of their basket-case existence at the hands of Todd Boehly and Clearlake. The latest man to try their hand is Enzo Maresca, acquired from newly promoted Leicester, a Guardiola disciple and already installed as the Premier League manager most likely to be sacked next with most bookies. The curiosity of Chelsea in the transfer market continues. Having spent over £1bn since the change of ownership they boast a squad of over 40 players and yet still lack any goalkeeper, centre-half or striker that would attract more than a passing interest from any of their rivals. Cole Palmer was the undoubted success story of last season, signed on deadline day - how different their season may have looked without him. Whether he can maintain his form under the new manager remains to be seen. Again, it is very Chelsea that their biggest new signing, Neto, operates in a position which Palmer filled last season so we will have to wait and see how the masterplan unfolds. Objectively it looks like a lack of top quality in key areas, a lack of squad harmony, a lack of leaders on the pitch, a lack of continuity in leadership off the pitch and still a lack of a comprehensible transfer strategy.

Pros: ...they have lots of players?
Cons: Chatoic, dysfunctional
Notable Ins: Neto, Felix, Dewsbury-Hall, Jorgensen, Tosin
Notable Outs: Gallagher, Maatsen
Key player: Palmer
Prediction: 8th or lower

Newcastle
Last season: 60 pts (7th)
Revival or stagnation?

Newcastle failed last season to build on their impressive 2022/23 campaign which saw them bring Champions League football back to St James' Park. Badly hampered by injuries, restricted in the transfer market by PSR and carrying the additional burden of European football it felt like some of the air came out of their post-takeover balloon. With no European football the Toon Army will be hoping for a repeat of their top 4 finish from the season prior but so far their are few reasons to believe in this outcome. There has been some disruption off the field with regards to the club hierarchy and with the England manager role becoming vacant it is natural that there is speculation around Eddie Howe's future. The squad has not been strengthened. The biggest signing so far this summer is Lewis Hall who was already at the club last season on loan. Meanwhile they have sold promising winger Yankuba Minteh to Brighton. Guehi may arrive from Palace but I'm not sure he improves the starting XI significantly. Their biggest hope is Isak who can probably lay claim to being the 2nd best striker in the league but has had some fitness issues. They are a good side under Howe and, with no European midweek distractions, if they have more luck with injuries they are still capable of upsetting the pecking order but at the moment Newcastle feel like a club that has lost it's momentum and need some fresh impetus.

Pros: Isak is quality. They are well coached and formidable on their day with their best XI
Cons: Haven't strengthened. Key players have stagnated. Off the field uncertainty.
Notable Ins: -
Notable Outs: -
Key player: Isak
Prediction: 7th

Manchester United
Last season: 60 pts (8th)
Things can only get better

A disastrous last season for United, finishing in their lowest ever Premier League position with a negative goal difference. A season littered with defensive injury issues, a lack of form for key players with Ten Hag only surviving by virtue of winning the FA Cup in spectacular fashion against rivals City. Midfield and defence were not strengthened last summer, due to the need to address the goalkeeper and striker voids, and ultimately we found ourselves badly exposed in those areas. And yet there were some green shoots: compared to the prior campaign when our key players were the likes of De Gea, Varane, Martinez, Shaw, Casemiro, Bruno, Rashford there was an emergence of new players to carry responsibility in the coming years: Mainoo, Hojlund and Garnacho, with Dalot also making himself a regular. To add to these players, United have gone positively into the transfer market this summer, giving our centre-back options a much needed refresh with the arrivals of De Ligt and Yoro, calling time on Wan-Bissaka with the signing of Mazrouai and adding Zirkzee to our attacking options. Midfield is still a worry which looks to be addressed by the arrival of apparently imminent signature of Ugarte. Underpinned by the long-awaited change in ownership structure and management hierarchy at the club there is a palpable sense of optimism but this needs to be cemented on the pitch. The fitness and injury issues of last season already seem to be rearing their head again and Ten-Hag must prove that tactically he can find the solutions to United's vulnerability on transition and our lack of goals.

Pros: New signings have improved depth and raised the technical and physical floor of the squad. Bright young players. New ownership optimism
Cons: Injury concerns at LB, CB. Midfield depth and balance. Rashford form. Lack of goals
Notable Ins: Yoro, Zirkzee, De Ligt, Mazrouai
Notable Outs: Varane, Martial, Wan-Bissaka
Key player: Mainoo
Prediction: 5th

 

[The White Pele]

Par PL table after Gameweek 1:

City +2
Arsenal 0
Liverpool 0
Aston Villa 0
Newcastle 0
United 0
Chelsea -2
Tottenham -2

City on top after winning at the Bridge although Chelsea away is probably the easiest Par 1 you can get this season. Likewise City at home is probably the toughest Par 2 so no surprises that Chelsea find themselves -2. Spurs are the real losers this week dropping two points at Leicester. A great result for Villa as i half expected them to drop points at West Ham and a weird one for Newcastle as they made an easy game on paper look quite difficult and yet still managed a win with 10 men. Overall no big surprises really with the top 4 from last season still looking the strongest and the other 4 a bit shaky.

From a United perspective, a difficult game to judge. The xG (2.72 vs 0.48) looks like a comprehensive win and yet that metric was quite skewed by the last minute gilt-edged Garnacho chance which was worth about 0.8 xG and by Fulham's failure to get a shot on goal from a clear 2 v 1 counter opportunity at 0-0 in the second half. Overall some positive signs but another game that we should expect to win that was in real jeopardy going into the final minutes which is an all-to-familiar feeling with this United side.


Gameweek 2 fixtures (Par pts):
Villa vs Arsenal the pick of the games and a tricky "Par 3" for United at Brighton
City: Ipswich (H) (3)
Arsenal: Villa (A) (1)
Liverpool: Brentford (H) (3)
Aston Villa: Arsenal (H) (2)
Newcastle: Bournemouth (A) (3)
United: Brighton (A) (3)
Chelsea: Wolves (A) (3)
Tottenham: Everton (H) (3)

 

[Cheimoon]

I always like this sort of thing, and your approach seems solid. Anyone can quibble on the details, but there is no perfect way and I like this one. In particular, the 2 points par for home games against the top 8 is a nice idea. Thanks for taking the time to do this!

 

[Red & White]

Fantastic effort! Very interesting and I’ll be keeping a close eye on this thread throughout the season.

 

[bosnian_red]

Always like these. Fixture difficulty makes a big difference throughout the season.

 

[McFred]

Fair play - Brighton away seems like it should be harder than a 3 though

 

[Rainy nights in Stoke]

Impressive work write up, and work so far! This is the kind of thread I come to the caf for

 

[Chipper]

Scoring
The scoring is simple. Each fixture is assigned a "par" value or expected outcome based on the perceived level of the opponent. The actual points achieved is then compared to the par score and your score vs par is accumulated, as it is in golf.

So here's the formula to win the league:
Win all home games against the bottom 12 sides (12 x par 3) = 36 points
Win all away games against the bottom 12 sides (12 x par 3) = 36 points
Average 2 points per game at home against the top 8 sides (7 x par 2) = 14 points
Average 1 point per game away against the top 8 sides (7 x par 2) = 7 points
TOTAL 93 points

Just for reference.

23/24 Champions Man City:
-9 in par 3 games
+1 in par 2 games
+6 in par 1 games
-2 total (91 points)

22/23 Champions Man City:
-16 in par 3 games
+7 in par 2 games
+5 in par 1 games
-4 total (89 points)

21/22 Champions Man city:
-9 in par 3 games
+2 in par 2 games
+ 7 in par 1 games
0 total (93 points)

 

[The White Pele]

Par PL table after Gameweek 2:

City +2
Arsenal +2
Liverpool 0
Tottenham -2
Villa -2
Chelsea -2
Newcastle -2
United -3

Statement wins from Arsenal and Chelsea and the table already taking the shape most people predicted at the start of the season. A gap to the frontrunners already opening up for United after a frustrating defeat in another tight game. Outside of these 8, Brighton obviously going very well in these early games and West Ham back on track with a win away at the fancied Crystal Palace so they look the two most likely teams to crash the party - and they take on the two title favourites in the next round of fixtures

Gameweek 3 fixtures (Par pts):

City: West Ham (A) (3)
Arsenal: Brighton (H) (3)
Liverpool: United (A) (1)
Tottenham: Newcastle (A) (1)
Villa: Leicester (A) (3)
Chelsea: Crystal Palace (H) (3)
Newcastle: Tottenham (H) (2)
United: Liverpool (H) (2)

United vs Liverpool the standout game with United really needing the 3 points to stay in contention in these early weeks. Tottenham will fancy their chances of getting a win and getting back to par for the season against a Newcastle side still searching for their best form. Potential banana skins for Arsenal and City to navigate and Chelsea's home credentials to be tested against a Palace side in desperate need of a result following back to back defeats. Villa should pick up a routine win at home to Leicester.

 

[Skills]

If we were doing this from the perspective of top 4 only, you need 70 points to qualify.

You need 20 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses to get top 4.

That's as follows:

Win
12 home games against teams 9-20
8 away games against teams 13-20

Draw
4 home against teams 5-8
4 away against teams 12-9

Lose
3 home games to teams 1-3
5 away games

 

[Sassy Colin]

It's a bit of fun

 

[The White Pele]

Par PL table after Gameweek 3:

City +2
Liverpool +2
Arsenal 0
Newcastle -1
Villa -2
Tottenham -3
Chelsea -4
United -5

A pretty disastrous start to the season for United whilst Liverpool look like they could be contenders as we go into the first international break

The next block of 4 games before the next international break looks like this:

	Pts	Par		GW4 Par	GW5 Par	GW6 Par	GW7 Par	Sub-total		GW7 Pts
City	9	+2		3	2	1	3	9		18		Brentford (H), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Fulham (H)
Liverpool	9	+2		3	3	3	3	12		21		Forest (H), Bournemouth (H), Woves (A), Palace (A)
Arsenal	7	0		1	1	3	3	8		15		Tottenham (A), City (A), Leicester (H), Southampton (H)
Newcastle	7	-1		3	3	2	3	11		18		Wolves (A), Fulham (A), City (H), Everton (A)
Villa	6	-2		3	3	3	2	11		17		Everton (H), Wolves (H), Ipswich (A), United (H)
Tottenham	4	-3		2	3	1	3	9		13		Arsenal (H), Brentford (H), United (A), Brighton (A)
Chelsea	4	-4		3	3	3	3	12		16		Bournemouth (A), West Ham (A), Brighton (H), Forest (H)
United	3	-5		3	3	2	1	9		12		Southampton (A), Palace (A), Tottenham (H), Villa (A)

In the title race, Liverpool should have a 3 point gap as we go into the next international break as they have the kindest set of fixtures. Arsenal in particular have a tough block of games , especially the next two Spurs (A) and City (A) so even if they take par of 2 points from these 2 games they could find themselves 6 points off the top.

In the chasing pack, Newcastle, Villa and Chelsea have the kinder fixtures in this next run of games which means a tough time from a United perspective. Even if we recover some form it is possible that the gap to top 4 (currently 4 points) gets bigger before it gets smaller.

 

[The White Pele]

Par PL table after Gameweek 4:

City +2
Arsenal +2
Liverpool -1
Newcastle -1
Villa -2
Chelsea -4
United -5
Tottenham -5

Arsenal draw level with City due to their win away at Spurs, despite being 2 points behind in the actual standings. Spurs join us on -5.

Liverpool slip to -1 due to their surprise loss to Forest.

 

[ItzdoctorZ]

Would be a great start for Arsenal if they get a draw next week at the Etihad.